Early predictors of corticosteroid response in acute severe autoimmune hepatitis: a nationwide multicenter study.
Aliment Pharmacol Ther 2022;
56:131-143. [PMID:
35470447 PMCID:
PMC9324977 DOI:
10.1111/apt.16926]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2021] [Revised: 11/28/2021] [Accepted: 04/02/2022] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS
To assess whether corticosteroids improve prognosis in patients with AS-AIH, and to identify factors at therapy initiation and during therapy predictive of the response to corticosteroids.
METHODS
This was a retrospective cohort study including all patients with AS-AIH admitted to 13 tertiary centres from January 2002 to January 2019. The composite primary outcome was death or liver transplantation within 90 days of admission. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression methods were used for data analysis.
RESULTS
Of 242 consecutive patients enrolled (mean age [SD] 49.7 [16.8] years), 203 received corticosteroids. Overall 90-day transplant-free survival was 61.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 55.4-67.7). Corticosteroids reduced the risk of a poor outcome (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.25; 95% CI 0.2-0.4), but this treatment failed in 30.5%. An internally validated nomogram composed of older age, MELD, encephalopathy and ascites at the initiation of corticosteroids accurately predicted the response (C-index 0.82; [95% CI 0.8-0.9]). In responders, MELD significantly improved from days 3 to 14 but remained unchanged in non-responders. MELD on day 7 with a cut-off of 25 (sensitivity 62.5%[95% CI: 47.0-75.8]; specificity 95.2% [95% CI: 89.9-97.8]) was the best univariate predictor of the response. Prolonging corticosteroids did not increase the overall infection risk (adjusted HR 0.75; 95% CI 0.3-2.1).
CONCLUSION
Older patients with high MELD, encephalopathy or ascites at steroid therapy initiation and during treatment are unlikely to show a favourable response and so prolonged therapy in these patients, especially if they are transplantation candidates, should be avoided.
Collapse