Hydrological simulation of Po River (North Italy) discharge under climate change scenarios using the RCM COSMO-CLM

The impacts of climate change on Po River discharges are investigated through a set of climate, hydrological, water-balance simulations continuous in space and time. Precipitation and 2m mean temperature fields from climate projections under two different representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, have been used to drive the hydrological model. Climate projections are obtained nesting the regional climate model COSMO-CLM into the global climate model CMCC-CM. The bias in climate projections is corrected applying the distribution derived quantile mapping. The persistence of climate signal in precipitation and temperature after the bias correction is assessed in terms of climate anomaly for 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 periods versus 1982-2011. To account for the overall uncertainty of emission scenarios, climate models and bias correction, the hydrological/water balance simulations are carried out using both raw and bias corrected climate datasets. Results show that under both RCPs, either considering raw and bias corrected climate datasets, temperature is expected to increase on the whole Po River basin and in all the seasons; the most significant changes in precipitation and discharges occur in summer, when the reduction of precipitation leads to an increase in low flow duration and occurrence likelihood, and in autumn and winter where precipitation shows a positive variation increasing the high flows frequency.

Tree-grass co-existence in savanna: Interactions of rain and fire

The mechanisms permitting the co-existence of tree and grass in savannas have been a source of contention for many years. The two main classes of explanations involve either competition for resources, or differential sensitivity to disturbances. Published models focus principally on one or the other of these mechanisms. Here we introduce a simple ecohydrologic model of savanna vegetation involving both competition for water, and differential sensitivity of trees and grasses to fire disturbances. We show how the co-existence of trees and grasses in savannas can be simultaneously controlled by rainfall and fire, and how the relative importance of the two factors distinguishes between dry and moist savannas. The stability map allows to predict the changes in vegetation structure along gradients of rainfall and fire disturbances realistically, and to clarify the distinction between climate- and disturbance-dependent ecosystems.

Dryland ecosystems: the coupled stochastic dynamics of soil water and vegetation and the role of rainfall seasonality

In drylands the soil water availability is a key factor ruling the architecture of the ecosystem. The soil water reflects the exchanges of water among soil, vegetation, and atmosphere. Here, a dryland ecosystem is investigated through the analysis of the local interactions between soil water and vegetation forced by rainfall having seasonal and stochastic occurrence. The evolution of dryland ecosystems is represented by a system of two differential equations, having two steady states, one vegetated and the other unvegetated. The rainfall forcing is described by a diffusion process with monthly parameters. In each of the two possible steady states, the probability density functions of soil water and vegetation are derived analytically in terms of the rainfall distribution. The results show how the seasonality of rainfall influences the oscillation of the ecosystem between its vegetated steady state during the wet season and its unvegetated steady state during the dry season.

Attitude towards psychiatric patients: a pilot study in a northern Italian town

The stigmatisation of the psychiatric patient is still a strong barrier to the integration process of these subjects in our society. Therefore, it is necessary to identify what types of prejudices exist and the types of variables with which they are linked, in order to plan strategies to reduce them. In this exploratory study we administered a semi-structured interview to 303 subjects in order to examine the relationships between social attitudes towards mental disorders and some social demographic variables, the information about mental disorders and the previous 'contacts' with psychiatric patients. The data analysis shows that there is a relationship between knowledge of psychiatric patients and a more positive attitude towards them (i.e., less fear, more integration and work opportunities). This study is to be considered preliminary as far as people's attitudes towards psychiatric patients are concerned. This result encourages the planning and implementation of sensitisation and information programs concerning mental disorders, in the sense that increasing the knowledge of mental disorders could lead to significant achievements in the important fight against the stigma surrounding psychiatric patients.