Predicting sudden death in patients with mild to moderate chronic heart failure

OBJECTIVES

To explore the relation between non-invasive measures of cardiac function and sudden cardiac death, as well as the development and utility of an index integrating these variables to identify patients at increased risk of this mode of death.

DESIGN

UK-HEART (United Kingdom-heart failure evaluation and assessment of risk trial) was a prospective study conducted between December 1993 and April 2000. The study was specifically designed to identify non-invasive markers of death and mode of death among patients with chronic heart failure.

SETTING

8 UK general hospitals.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Death and mode of death.

RESULTS

553 patients aged a mean (SD) of 63 (10) years, in New York Heart Association functional class 2.3 (0.02), recruited prospectively. After 2365 patient-years' follow up, 201 patients had died (67 suddenly). Predictors of sudden death were greater cardiothoracic ratio, QRS dispersion, QT dispersion corrected for rate (QTc) across leads V1-V6 on the 12 lead ECG, and the presence of non-sustained ventricular tachycardia. The hazard ratio and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of sudden death for a 10% increase in cardiothoracic ratio was 1.43 (95% CI 1.20 to 1.71), for a 10% increase in QRS dispersion 1.11 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.19), for the presence of non-sustained ventricular tachycardia 2.03 (95% CI 1.27 to 3.25), and for a 10% increase in QTc dispersion across leads V1-V6 1.03 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.07) (all p < 0.04). An index derived from these four factors performed well in identifying patients specifically at increased risk of sudden death.

CONCLUSIONS

Results show that an index derived from three widely available non-invasive investigations has the potential to identify ambulant patients with chronic heart failure at increased risk of sudden death. This predictive tool could be used to target more sophisticated investigations or interventions aimed at preventing sudden death.

Comparison of survival following coronary artery bypass grafting vs. percutaneous coronary intervention in diabetic and non-diabetic patients: retrospective cohort study of 6320 procedures

AIM

To determine whether mortality following percutaneous coronary intervention vs. coronary bypass grafting varies according to whether or not patients have diabetes.

METHODS

We used the Scottish Coronary Revascularization Register to identify all patients undergoing revascularization in Scottish NHS hospitals since 1997. We excluded single-vessel disease, left main stem stenosis, and bypass grafting performed at the same time as other operations. We used death certificate data from the Registrar General to identify all subsequent deaths.

RESULTS

Of the 6320 eligible procedures, 5042 (80%) were bypass grafts and 1278 (20%) angioplasties. Overall 831 (13%) patients had diabetes with no significant difference by procedure (13% vs. 12%). A total of 382 deaths occurred over a mean follow-up of 2.3 years. Diabetic patients had a poorer prognosis following both surgery (adjusted hazards ratio (HR) 1.43, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08, 1.89) and percutaneous intervention (adjusted HR 2.58, 95% CI 1.43, 4.63). Among non-diabetic patients, no significant differences in mortality were detected between the two procedures. Among diabetic patients, no significant difference was detected in those with two-vessel disease. In those with impaired left ventricular function and triple-vessel disease, angioplasty was associated with a significantly higher risk of death (adjusted HR 3.58, 95% CI 1.40, 9.19).

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to demonstrate statistically significant results that support the BARI trial findings. Our study demonstrated a significant difference for triple-vessel disease but not two-vessel disease. The former may be due to incomplete revascularization using percutaneous intervention. Our results require corroboration from randomized trials.

Outcomes following coronary artery bypass grafting and percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty in the stent era: a prospective study of all 9890 consecutive patients operated on in Scotland over a two year period

OBJECTIVE

To determine current outcomes of percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).

DESIGN

The Scottish coronary revascularisation register provided prospectively collected data on case mix and in-hospital complications for all revascularisation procedures between April 1997 and March 1999 (4775 PTCA; 5115 CABG). Linkage to routine hospital discharge and death data provided follow up information on survival and repeat revascularisation.

RESULTS

Stents were used in 51% of PTCA procedures. CABG patients were older, had more severe coronary disease, and had greater comorbidity. PTCA was more likely to be undertaken as an urgent or emergency procedure. Perioperative death and urgent surgery followed 0.3% and 0.6% of PTCA procedures, respectively. Case fatality rates were higher following CABG, with 6.7% dead within two years compared with 3.4% following PTCA. PTCA was more often followed by readmission for ischaemic heart disease, repeat angiography, or revascularisation: 22.8% of patients had repeat revascularisation within two years, compared with 1.8% following CABG.

CONCLUSIONS

The severity of coronary heart disease was greater than in previously published registry studies and randomised trials. Despite this, overall survival figures were comparable and repeat revascularisation rates lower, particularly following PTCA. Perioperative death and urgent surgery following PTCA were also lower. These favourable outcomes may be attributable, in part, to increased use of bail out and elective stenting.