Statistical analysis and prediction on incidence of infectious diseases based on trend and seasonality

We proposed a prediction methodology for the incidence of infectious diseases using incidence data on measles and influenza for forty years in Japan. We also proposed a diagram that makes it possible to convey information on infectious disease incidence more attractively to a wider audience. This can be a useful tool for health promotion in the community. The obtained results are as follows: 1. It was advantageous to use data transformed by logarithm in statistical analysis of infectious disease incidence. 2. The incidences of measles and influenza exhibited strong seasonality. Measles was most frequent in June and influenza in February. 3. Long-term trends were extracted from the derived data obtained by eliminating seasonal effects from the original data. For measles, a decline was accelerated by the introduction of vaccination program in 1978. Influenza also showed a decline for these thirty years. 4. The observed incidence data were quite well predicted by only the trend and the seasonality. The squares of multiple regression coefficients of measles and influenza were 0.84 and 0.58, respectively. The analysis of the residuals suggested there was a possibility of improvement in prediction. 5. The improvement in prediction was attained by incorporating an autoregressive component of the residuals. As a result, the squares of multiple correlation coefficients of measles and influenza increased to 0.97 and to 0.79, respectively. 6. We finally proposed the TS-decomposition diagram to facilitate practical use of incidence data. In this diagram, current incidence data and predicted values for the near future are plotted on the plane where the trend and the seasonality are superimposed.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Development of a system for analyzing working postures

In order to assist in the analysis of working postures which might cause lumbago in the field of industrial health, a system was developed for the synchronous recording and analyzing of postures, work content and physiological data. The system is composed of a portable unit for recording 3 channels of goniometers, 1 channel of inclinometer and 1 channel of surface electromyogram, a video camera for recording work content, a host computer and some peripheral devices for analyzing the data from the portable unit and video camera. In this system, postures are automatically classified from data on joint angles and upper body inclination angle by using a discriminant function. The joint angles are measured by the goniometers using rubber optical fibers. The angle of upper body inclination is obtained by the inclinometer using a magnetic resistance sensor. In addition to the work content and video images, the postures and the electromyogram can be analyzed and confirmed by simultaneous display of the data on the host computer screen. Based on the trial use of this system in a work model of manual baggage handling, it was proved useful for evaluating in detail the workload caused by working postures.

Exploring 97 Years of Aedes aegypti as the Vector for Dengue, Yellow Fever, Zika, and Chikungunya (Diptera: Culicidae): Scientometric Analysis

BACKGROUND

Aedes aegypti is an important vector that transmits dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever viruses. Although research on Aedes aegypti has been conducted for decades, scientometric studies on Aedes aegypti are scarce, are limited to regions, and cover short periods. Thus, there is still a knowledge gap in the current trend, research focuses and directions, leading authors and collaboration, journal and citation impacts, countries, and worldwide collaborations.

OBJECTIVE

The objectives of the study are to investigate the research trend, focus and directions, citation impact, leading authors and collaboration, journals, and countries of the published works on Aedes aegypti to inform the current knowledge gaps and future direction of the control of the vector.

METHODS

In this study, we searched the Scopus database for articles on Aedes aegypti published from the year 1927 until April 5th, 2024, and included articles, reviews, books, and book chapters that were written in English. A total of 16,247 articles in 160 journals with 481,479 citations were included. Inconsistencies in authors' names were checked and cleaned using OpenRefine. The data were grouped into 4 periods; years 1927-1999, 2000-2009, 2010-2019, and 2020-2023. The relative growth rate and doubling time of publications were calculated. The analysis was conducted using VOSviewer, R bibliometrics, and citeSpace.

RESULTS

The overall RGR was 0.1. Doubling time increased from 9.3 in 1978-1998 to 12.1 in 2000-2009. The main research clusters were "using Wolbachia," "Dengue Zika," "worldwide diversity," "community support," "larvicidal activity," "mosquito genotype-dependent," and "sterile insect technique." Journal of Medical Entomology was the leading journal (758/16,247, 4.7%). The most cited articles were authored by Halstead SB and team in Science (N=1355) and Kraemer MU and team in eLife (N=1324). The United States (5806/23,538, 24.7%) and Brazil (2035/23,538, 8.6%) were the top countries. Gubler DJ was the top co-cited author (n=2892) from 2000 to 2019. The co-cited author cluster patterns informed the significant specialty research on Aedes aegypti across time. Authors from various specialized research fields tended to collaborate across countries, especially neighboring countries. Countries with more research funding on the study of Aedes aegypti published more papers.

CONCLUSIONS

Researchers or entomologists could understand the current knowledge gap on Aedes aegypti and plan for future research pathways. This study contributed to the public health stakeholders in improving the vector control interventions and elucidated the extent of research subject areas.

Characteristics of elderly patients receiving care coordination: the role of telephonic review and home visit

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The effect of occupational type of household on mortality in Japan

The mortality of the Japanese population was examined focusing on the effect of household head occupation rather than individual occupations. The 'healthy worker effect' (HWE) which implies lower mortality observed in a working than in a non-working populations has been successively observed in comparative studies on mortality in different occupation populations. In this study we report quite similar results analysing the effect of household head occupation. We point out the possibility that HWE should have a component which is shared with the household members if the worker is a household head. We call this component the 'indirect effect'. The results obtained in this study are as follows. The employee household had the lowest mortality followed by self-employed, agriculture and 'others' households. The self-employed household also had a low standardized mortality ratio (SMR) except for diabetes in male. The SMR of the agriculture household was significantly high especially for those above 65 years of age and for suicide in both male and female of age 45 years old and over but low for cirrhosis of liver in male and tuberculosis in both male and female. The SMR of 'Others' household was the highest among the occupational type of households especially between 20-64 years. The similarity in SMR trend among male and female rather than in occupational type of household, despite the fact that males are more likely to be working than females, suggests the presence of indirect effect. Though it is difficult to distinguish direct and the indirect effects completely, we also discuss a method that enables us to distinguish the two effects more effectively.