Performance evaluation of oil spill software systems in early fate and trajectory of oil spill: comparison analysis of OILMAP and PISCES 2 in Mersin bay spill

The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance level of two advanced oil spill software systems in early transport and fate of oil spill through algorithms accepted in oil spill literature. To do this, the performance level of software systems mostly used in real cases have been compared. OILMAP (the oil spill prediction modeling system) and PISCES 2 (potential incident simulation, control and evaluation system) have been used for spill trajectory in the light of four spill scenarios. The findings reveal that the OILMAP has predicted a relatively larger area of spill. In addition, OILMAP has achieved closer results to the calculations of approaches adopted in the literature for evaporation calculations. Besides, OILMAP software has provided highly reliable results in the evaporation rates of oil compared to the calculations of PISCES 2. On the other hand, as for the determination of the risky area, both software systems have yielded results with high reliability values, which could be used in taking precautions against oil spill in such areas.

Trajectory prediction of oil spill with Pisces 2 around Bay of Izmir, Turkey

The purpose of this study is to determine the risky areas by simulating trajectory of ship based oil spill in Bay of Izmir. To get well informed about fate, this study makes the best possible use one trajectory model. PISCES 2 (Potential Incident Simulation, Control and. Evaluation System), has been conducted for simulation of main weathering processes of oil spill. Hence in order to identify the risky areas, two scenarios have been developed depending on the type and amount of pollutants. In this study it is concluded that Yenikale, Inciralti and Guzelbahce will be at risk of contamination in case of accidental oil spill at Yenikale Entrance. Finally, the PISCES 2 software provided highly reliable solutions in evaporation rate and dispersion rate calculations when compared to approaches accepted in the literature. However in the surface area calculations, there is a serious difference between the size of the area calculated by the software and the size of the area proposed by oil spill science.