The Future of Precision Medicine: Potential Impacts for Health Technology Assessment

OBJECTIVE

Precision medicine allows healthcare interventions to be tailored to groups of patients based on their disease susceptibility, diagnostic or prognostic information, or treatment response. We analysed what developments are expected in precision medicine over the next decade and considered the implications for health technology assessment (HTA) agencies.

METHODS

We performed a pragmatic literature search to account for the large size and wide scope of the precision medicine literature. We refined and enriched these results with a series of expert interviews up to 1 h in length, including representatives from HTA agencies, research councils and researchers designed to cover a wide spectrum of precision medicine applications and research.

RESULTS

We identified 31 relevant papers and interviewed 13 experts. We found that three types of precision medicine are expected to emerge in clinical practice: complex algorithms, digital health applications and 'omics'-based tests. These are expected to impact upon each stage of the HTA process, from scoping and modelling through to decision-making and review. The complex and uncertain treatment pathways associated with patient stratification and fast-paced technological innovation are central to these effects.

DISCUSSION

Innovation in precision medicine promises substantial benefits but will change the way in which some health services are delivered and evaluated. The shelf life of guidance may decrease, structural uncertainty may increase and new equity considerations will emerge. As biomarker discovery accelerates and artificial intelligence-based technologies emerge, refinements to the methods and processes of evidence assessments will help to adapt and maintain the objective of investing in healthcare that is value for money.

Adeno-associated virus-mediated delivery of BCL-w gene improves outcome after transient focal cerebral ischemia

A recombinant adeno-associated virus (rAAV) vector was used to overexpress the anti-apoptotic Bcl-2-family protein, BCL-w, in rat brain. Three weeks after injecting the vector into cerebral cortex and striatum on one side, temporary focal ischemia was induced by occlusion of the ipsilateral middle cerebral artery for 90 min, followed by reperfusion for 24 h. BCL-w expression was increased in cerebral cortex and striatum--and in neurons, astroglia and endothelial cells--in the brains of rats that received the rAAV-BCL-w vector, compared to rats given phosphate-buffered saline or a control vector containing the gene for green fluorescent protein. Recipients of the rAAV-BCL-w vector also showed a 30% reduction in infarct size and a 33-40% improvement in neurological function, compared to the control groups. These results provide evidence for a role of BCL-w in regulating histological and functional outcome after focal cerebral ischemia.

Recombinant adeno-associated virus vector-based gene transfer for defects in oxidative metabolism

Defects in oxidative metabolism may be caused by mutations either in nuclear genes or in mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). We tested the hypothesis that recombinant adeno-associated virus (rAAV) could be used to complement mtDNA mutations. AAV vector constructs were designed to express the reporter gene encoding green fluorescent protein (GFP), fused to a targeting presequence that directed GFP to be translocated into mitochondria. These vectors mediated expression of mitochondrial-localized GFP, as indicated by fluorescence microscopy and electron microscopy, in respiring human embryonic kidney 293 cells and nonrespiring mtDNA-deficient (rho 0) cells. However, when sequences encoding hydrophobic segments of proteins normally encoded by mtDNA were inserted between the presequence and GFP, mitochondrial import failed to occur. In similar experiments, a fusion was created between pyruvate dehydrogenase (PDH) E1 alpha subunit, a nuclear-encoded mitochondrial gene with its own targeting presequence, and GFP. With this construct, expression of GFP was observed in mitochondria in vitro and in vivo. We conclude that the hydrophobicity of mtDNA-encoded proteins limits their ability to be transported from the cytoplasm. However, rAAV-based gene therapy may hold promise for gene therapy of PDH deficiency, the most common biochemically proven cause of congenital lactic acidosis.

Cost-effectiveness of a cardiac contractility modulation device in heart failure with normal QRS duration

AIMS

The objective of this paper is to assess whether cardiac contractility modulation (via the Optimizer System) plus standard of care (SoC) is a cost-effective treatment for people with heart failure [New York Heart Association (NYHA) III, left ventricular ejection fraction of 25-45%, and narrow QRS] compared against SoC alone from the perspective of the English National Health Service.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We developed a regression equation-based cost-effectiveness model, using individual patient data from three randomized control trials (FIX-HF-5 Phases 1 and 2, and FIX-HF-5C) to populate the majority of parameters. A series of regression equations predicted NYHA class over time, mortality, all-cause hospitalization rates, and health-related quality of life. We conducted the analysis in line with the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence reference case, modelling costs from an English National Health Service perspective, and considering outcomes in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) over a patient lifetime perspective. Our base case analysis produced an incremental cost per additional QALY of GBP22 988 (€25 750) when comparing Optimizer + SoC to SoC alone. This result was not sensitive to parameter uncertainty but was sensitive to the time horizon over which costs and QALYs were captured and the duration over which a survival benefit with Optimizer + SoC can be assumed to apply.

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiac contractility modulation is likely to be cost-effective in people with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, NYHA III, and narrow QRS, provided that the treatment benefit can be maintained beyond the duration of the existing clinical trial follow-up. This analysis supports the current recommendations of the European Society of Cardiology that this therapy may be considered for such patients.

'If I do 10-15 normal deliveries in a month I hardly ever sleep at home.' A qualitative study of health providers' reasons for high rates of caesarean deliveries in private sector maternity care in Delhi, India

Background

Although the overall rate of caesarean deliveries in India remains low, rates are higher in private than in public facilities. In a household survey in Delhi, for instance, more than half of women delivering in private facilities reported a caesarean section. Evidence suggests that not all caesarean sections are clinically necessary and may even increase morbidity. We present providers’ perspectives of the reasons behind the high rates of caesarean births in private facilities, and possible solutions to counter the trend.

Methods

Fourteen in-depth interviews were conducted with high-end private sector obstetricians and other allied providers in Delhi and its neighbouring cities, Gurgaon and Ghaziabad.

Results

Respondents were of the common view that private sector caesarean rates were unreasonably high and perceived time and doctors’ convenience as the foremost reasons. Financial incentives had an indirect effect on decision-making. Obstetricians felt that they must maintain high patient loads to be commercially successful. Many alluded to their busy working lives, which made it challenging for them to monitor every delivery individually. Besides fearing for patient safety in these situations, they were fearful of legal action if anything went wrong. A lack of context specific guidelines and inadequate support from junior staff and nurses exacerbated these problems. Maternal demand also played a role, as the consumer-provider relationship in private healthcare incentivised obstetricians to fulfil patient demands for caesarean section. Suggested solutions included more support, from either well-trained midwives and junior staff or using a ‘shared practice’ model; guidelines introduced by an Indian body; increased regulation within the sector and public disclosure of providers’ caesarean rates.

Conclusions

Commercial interests contribute indirectly to high caesarean rates, as solo obstetricians juggle the need to maintain high patient loads with inadequate support staff. Perceptions amongst providers and consumers of caesarean section as the ‘safe’ option have re-defined caesareans as the new ‘normal’, even for low-risk deliveries. At the policy level, guidelines and public disclosures, strong initiatives to develop professional midwifery, and increasing public awareness, could bring about a sustainable reduction in the present high rates.

Economic evidence for nonpharmacological asthma management interventions: A systematic review

Asthma management, education and environmental interventions have been reported as cost‐effective in a previous review (Pharm Pract (Granada), 2014;12:493), but methods used to estimate costs and outcomes were not discussed in detail. This review updates the previous review by providing economic evidence on the cost‐effectiveness of studies identified after 2012, and a detailed assessment of the methods used in all identified studies. Twelve databases were searched from 1990 to January 2016, and studies included economic evaluations, asthma subjects and nonpharmacological interventions written in English. Sixty‐four studies were included. Of these, 15 were found in addition to the earlier review; 53% were rated fair in quality and 47% high. Education and self‐management interventions were the most cost‐effective, in line with the earlier review. Self‐reporting was the most common method used to gather resource‐use data, accompanied by bottom‐up approaches to estimate costs. Main outcome measures were asthma‐related hospitalizations (69%), quality of life (41%) and utility (38%), with AQLQ and the EQ‐5D being the most common questionnaires measured prospectively at fixed time points. More rigorous costing methods are needed with a more common quality of life tool to aid greater replicability and comparability amongst asthma studies.

Use of Expert Judgement Across NICE Guidance-Making Programmes: A Review of Current Processes and Suitability of Existing Tools to Support the Use of Expert Elicitation

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to review current use of experts within National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidance-making programmes, identify improvements in use of expert judgement, and to assess tools and protocols to support the elicitation of information from experts for use by NICE.

METHODS

The study comprised a review of NICE process guides; semi-structured interviews with individuals representing each NICE guidance-making programme and a comparison of the suitability of currently available tools and protocols for expert elicitation to the requirements of NICE programmes.

RESULTS

Information elicited from experts and the way in which it is used varies across NICE guidance-making programmes. Experts' involvement can be as intensive as being a member of a committee and thus having direct influence on recommendations or limited one-off consultations on specific parameters. We identified 16 tools for expert elicitation that were potentially relevant. None fully met the requirements of NICE, although an existing tool could be potentially adapted. Ongoing research to develop a reference protocol for expert elicitation in healthcare decision making may be of use in future.

CONCLUSIONS

NICE uses expert judgement across all its guidance-making programmes, but its uses vary considerably. There is no currently available tool for expert elicitation suitable for use by NICE. However, adaptation of an existing tool or ongoing research in the area could address this in the future.

Mepilex Border Sacrum and Heel Dressings for the Prevention of Pressure Ulcers: A NICE Medical Technology Guidance

Mepilex Border Sacrum and Heel dressings are self-adherent, multilayer foam dressings designed for use on the heel and sacrum aiming to prevent pressure ulcers. The dressings are used in addition to standard care protocols for pressure ulcer prevention. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) selected Mepilex Border Sacrum and Heel dressings for evaluation. The External Assessment Centre (EAC) critiqued the company's submission. Thirteen studies (four randomised controlled trials and nine nonrandomised comparative studies) were included. The majority of studies compared Mepilex Border Sacrum dressings (plus standard care) with standard care alone. Comparative evidence for Mepilex Border Heel dressings was limited. A meta-analysis indicated a non-statistically significant difference in favour of Mepilex Border Sacrum dressings for pressure ulcer incidence [RR 0.51 (95% CI 0.22-1.18)]. The company produced a de novo cost model, which was critiqued by the EAC. After the EAC updated input parameters, cost savings of £19 per patient compared with standard care alone for pressure ulcer prevention were estimated with Mepilex Border dressings predicted to be cost saving in 57% of iterations. The Medical Technologies Advisory Committee reviewed the evidence and judged that, although Mepilex Border Heel and Sacrum dressings have potential to prevent pressure ulcers in people who are considered to be at risk in acute care settings, further evidence is required to address uncertainties around the claimed benefits of the dressings and the incidence of pressure ulcers in an NHS acute-care setting. After a public consultation, NICE published this as Medical Technology Guidance 40.

The Memokath-051 Stent for the Treatment of Ureteric Obstruction: A NICE Medical Technology Guidance

Memokath-051 is a thermo-expandable, nickel-titanium alloy spiral stent used to treat ureteric obstruction resulting from malignant or benign strictures. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) selected Memokath-051 for evaluation. The company, PNN Medical, claimed Memokath-051 has clinical superiority and cost savings compared with double-J stents. It identified five studies reporting clinical evidence on Memokath-051 and constructed a de novo cost model comparing Memokath-051 to double-J stents. Results indicated that Memokath-051 generated cost savings of £4156 per patient over 2.5 years. The External Assessment Centre (EAC) critiqued the company's submission and completed substantial additional work. Sixteen studies were identified assessing Memokath-051 and all listed comparators in the scope (double-J stents, reconstructive surgery and metallic and alloy stents) except nephrostomy. Similar success rates were reported for Memokath-051 compared with double-J and Resonance stents and worse outcomes compared with other options with evidence available. The EAC updated the company's cost model structure and modified several inputs. The EAC's model estimated that Memokath-051 generated savings of at least £1619 per patient over 5 years compared with double-J stents, was cost neutral compared with other metallic stents and was cost saving compared with surgery up to month 55. Overall, Memokath-051 is likely to be cost saving in patients not indicated for reconstructive surgery and those expected to require a ureteral stent for at least 30 months. The Medical Technologies Advisory Committee (MTAC) reviewed the evidence and supported the case for adoption, issuing partially supportive recommendations published after public consultation as Medical Technologies Guidance 35.

An argument for pandemic risk management using a multidisciplinary One Health approach to governance: an Australian case study

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 and the subsequent COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in significant global impact. However, COVID-19 is just one of several high-impact infectious diseases that emerged from wildlife and are linked to the human relationship with nature. The rate of emergence of new zoonoses (diseases of animal origin) is increasing, driven by human-induced environmental changes that threaten biodiversity on a global scale. This increase is directly linked to environmental drivers including biodiversity loss, climate change and unsustainable resource extraction. Australia is a biodiversity hotspot and is subject to sustained and significant environmental change, increasing the risk of it being a location for pandemic origin. Moreover, the global integration of markets means that consumption trends in Australia contributes to the risk of disease spill-over in our regional neighbours in Asia-Pacific, and beyond. Despite the clear causal link between anthropogenic pressures on the environment and increasing pandemic risks, Australia's response to the COVID-19 pandemic, like most of the world, has centred largely on public health strategies, with a clear focus on reactive management. Yet, the span of expertise and evidence relevant to the governance of pandemic risk management is much wider than public health and epidemiology. It involves animal/wildlife health, biosecurity, conservation sciences, social sciences, behavioural psychology, law, policy and economic analyses to name just a few.The authors are a team of multidisciplinary practitioners and researchers who have worked together to analyse, synthesise, and harmonise the links between pandemic risk management approaches and issues in different disciplines to provide a holistic overview of current practice, and conclude the need for reform in Australia. We discuss the adoption of a comprehensive and interdisciplinary 'One Health' approach to pandemic risk management in Australia. A key goal of the One Health approach is to be proactive in countering threats of emerging infectious diseases and zoonoses through a recognition of the interdependence between human, animal, and environmental health. Developing ways to implement a One Health approach to pandemic prevention would not only reduce the risk of future pandemics emerging in or entering Australia, but also provide a model for prevention strategies around the world.

Correction to: Use of Expert Judgement Across NICE Guidance‑Making Programmes: A Review of Current Processes and Suitability of Existing Tools to Support the Use of Expert Elicitation

In Sect. 3.3.1, the second sentence of the second paragraph.

Diagnosis of An Interstitial Ectopic Pregnancy with Two-Dimensional Transvaginal Sonography

Interstitial ectopic pregnancy is a medical emergency affecting women of reproductive age. Its presentation is late and is often misinterpreted as early miscarriage. If undiagnosed and allowed to progress to a significant gestation, rupture will occur with devastating maternal consequences. There are several treatment options available depending on a number of clinical factors; surgical, medical and expectant management. The most significant outcome is from early treatment, resulting in reduced maternal morbidity and preservation of fertility. The key to successful treatment is early detection. Ultrasound plays a major role in detection of this life threatening condition.

Correction to: The Future of Precision Medicine: Potential Impacts for Health Technology Assessment

The article The Future of Precision Medicine: Potential Impacts for Health Technology Assessment written by James Love‑Koh, Alison Peel Juan, Carlos Rejon‑Parrilla, KateAnastasia Chalkidou, Hannah Wood, Matthew Taylor was originally published electronically on the publisher's internet portal (currently Springer Link) on [13th July, 2018] with incorrect spelling of the co-author "Juan Carlos Rejon-Parilla". The correct spelling is "Juan Carlos Rejon-Parrilla".