Combining a deep learning model with clinical data better predicts hepatocellular carcinoma behavior following surgery

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is among the most common cancers worldwide, and tumor recurrence following liver resection or transplantation is one of the highest contributors to mortality in HCC patients after surgery. Using artificial intelligence (AI), we developed an interdisciplinary model to predict HCC recurrence and patient survival following surgery. We collected whole-slide H&E images, clinical variables, and follow-up data from 300 patients with HCC who underwent transplant and 169 patients who underwent resection at the Cleveland Clinic. A deep learning model was trained to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) from the H&E-stained slides. Repeated cross-validation splits were used to compute robust C-index estimates, and the results were compared to those obtained by fitting a Cox proportional hazard model using only clinical variables. While the deep learning model alone was predictive of recurrence and survival among patients in both cohorts, integrating the clinical and histologic models significantly increased the C-index in each cohort. In every subgroup analyzed, we found that a combined clinical and deep learning model better predicted post-surgical outcome in HCC patients compared to either approach independently.

Survival Tree Provides Individualized Estimates of Survival After Lung Transplant

INTRODUCTION

Identifying contributors to lung transplant survival is vital in mitigating mortality. To enhance individualized mortality estimation and determine variable interaction, we employed a survival tree algorithm utilizing recipient and donor data.

METHODS

United Network Organ Sharing data (2000-2021) were queried for single and double lung transplants in adult patients. Graft survival time <7 d was excluded. Sixty preoperative and immediate postoperative factors were evaluated with stepwise logistic regression on mortality; final model variables were included in survival tree modeling. Data were split into training and testing sets and additionally validated with 10-fold cross validation. Survival tree pruning and model selection was based on Akaike information criteria and log-likelihood values. Estimated survival probabilities and log-rank pairwise comparisons between subgroups were calculated.

RESULTS

A total of 27,296 lung transplant patients (8175 single; 19,121 double lung) were included. Stepwise logistic regression yielded 47 significant variables associated with mortality. Survival tree modeling returned six significant factors: recipient age, length of stay from transplant to discharge, recipient ventilator duration post-transplant, double lung transplant, recipient reintubation post-transplant, and donor cytomegalovirus status. Eight subgroups consisting of combinations of these factors were identified with distinct Kaplan-Meier survival curves.

CONCLUSIONS

Survival trees provide the ability to understand the effects and interactions of covariates on survival after lung transplantation. Individualized survival probability with this technique found that preoperative and postoperative factors influence survival after lung transplantation. Thus, preoperative patient counseling should acknowledge a degree of uncertainty given the influence of postoperative factors.

Development of spinning-disk solid sample delivery system for high-repetition rate x-ray free electron laser experiments

X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs) deliver intense x-ray pulses that destroy the sample in a single shot by a Coulomb explosion. Experiments using XFEL pulse trains or the new generation of high-repetition rate XFELs require rapid sample replacement beyond those provided by the systems now used at low repletion-rate XFELs. We describe the development and characterization of a system based on a spinning disk to continuously deliver a solid sample into an XFEL interaction point at very high speeds. We tested our system at the Linac Coherent Light Source and European XFEL hard x-ray nano-focus instruments, employing it to deliver a 25 μm copper foil sample, which can be used as a gain medium for stimulated x-ray emission for the proposed x-ray laser oscillator.

Model to predict major complications following liver resection for HCC in patients with metabolic syndrome

BACKGROUND

Metabolic syndrome (MS) is rapidly growing as risk factor for HCC. Liver resection for HCC in patients with MS is associated with increased postoperative risks. There are no data on factors associated with postoperative complications.

AIMS

The aim was to identify risk factors and develop and validate a model for postoperative major morbidity after liver resection for HCC in patients with MS, using a large multicentric Western cohort.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The univariable logistic regression analysis was applied to select predictive factors for 90 days major morbidity. The model was built on the multivariable regression and presented as a nomogram. Performance was evaluated by internal validation through the bootstrap method. The predictive discrimination was assessed through the concordance index.

RESULTS

A total of 1087 patients were gathered from 24 centers between 2001 and 2021. Four hundred and eighty-four patients (45.2%) were obese. Most liver resections were performed using an open approach (59.1%), and 743 (68.3%) underwent minor hepatectomies. Three hundred and seventy-six patients (34.6%) developed postoperative complications, with 13.8% major morbidity and 2.9% mortality rates. Seven hundred and thirteen patients had complete data and were included in the prediction model. The model identified obesity, diabetes, ischemic heart disease, portal hypertension, open approach, major hepatectomy, and changes in the nontumoral parenchyma as risk factors for major morbidity. The model demonstrated an AUC of 72.8% (95% CI: 67.2%-78.2%) ( https://childb.shinyapps.io/NomogramMajorMorbidity90days/ ).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients undergoing liver resection for HCC and MS are at high risk of postoperative major complications and death. Careful patient selection, considering baseline characteristics, liver function, and type of surgery, is key to achieving optimal outcomes.

Rare Presentation of Umbilical Condyloma

Syphilis is associated with 3 stages of infection-primary, secondary, and tertiary-each with their own associated clinical findings. Secondary syphilis manifests with condyloma lata and other cutaneous findings, and typically occurs several months after the initial infection. Condyloma lata are primarily found in the genital area, but may also be found in other locations such as the umbilicus, axilla, and neck. This brief report describes an umbilical condyloma lata discovered in a patient with secondary syphilis and HIV co-infection and discusses surgical excision and fulguration as an option for definitive management.

Reduced Dynamin-I levels in neurons lacking MUNC18-1

MUNC18-1/Syntaxin binding protein-1 (Stxbp1), binds Syntaxin-1. Together, these proteins regulate synaptic vesicle exocytosis and have a separate role in neuronal viability. In MUNC18-1/Stxbp1 null mutant neurons, Syntaxin-1 protein levels are 70% reduced. Here, we show that Dynamin-1 protein levels are reduced at least to the same extent, and DNM1 transcript levels are 50% reduced in MUNC18-1/Stxbp1 null mutant brain. Several, but not all, other endocytic proteins were also reduced, but to a lesser extent. The reduced Dynamin-1 expression was not observed in SNAP25 and MUNC13-1/2 null mutants, in which synaptic vesicle exocytosis is also blocked. Co-immunoprecipitation experiments demonstrated that Dynamin-1 and MUNC18-1 do not bind directly. Furthermore, MUNC18-1 levels were unaltered in neurons lacking all three Dynamin paralogs. Finally, overexpression of Dynamin-1 was not sufficient to rescue neuronal viability in MUNC18-1/Stxbp1 null mutant neurons, thus the reduction in Dynamin-1 is not the single cause for neurodegeneration of these neurons. The reduction of Dynamin-1 protein and mRNA, and other endocytosis proteins in Stxbp1 null mutant neurons suggests that MUNC18-1 directly or indirectly controls protein and mRNA levels of other presynaptic genes.

A chronological review of 500 minimally invasive liver resections in a North American institution: overcoming stagnation and toward consolidation

BACKGROUND

Although interest in expanding the application of minimally invasive liver resection (MILR) is high the world over, most of the extensive experience in MILR has been reported from Far East Asia and Europe and its adoption in North America is limited. The aim of this study was to review the experience of MILR in a single North American institute over a 15-year period, highlighting both the obstacles encountered and strategies adopted to overcome the stagnation in its uptake.

METHODS

This study included 500 MILR cases between 2006 and 2020. Patient demographics, disease characteristics, surgical technique, and perioperative outcomes are summarized. The major hepatectomy rate and conversion rate were assessed according to case numbers (first 100, 101-300, and 301-500 cases) to assess chronological trends.

RESULTS

Of 500, 402 MILRs were done by pure laparoscopic (80.4%), 67 were hand assisted (13.4%), and 31 were robotic (6.2%). The majority (64%) of cases were performed for malignancy (n = 320; 100 Hepatocellular carcinoma, 153 Colorectal metastases, 27 Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, and others, 40, 64%). A total of 71 cases were converted to open (14.2%). The annual case number gradually increased over the first few years; however, case numbers stayed around 30 between 2009 and 2017. In this period, despite accumulating MILR experience, open conversion rates increased despite no change in major hepatectomy rate. After this period of long-term stagnation, we introduced crucial changes in team composition and laparoscopic instrumentation. Our MILR case number and major hepatectomy rate thereafter increased significantly without increasing conversion or complication rates.

CONCLUSION

Our recovery from long-term stagnation by instituting key changes as detailed in this study could be used as a guidepost for programs that are contemplating transitioning their MILR program from minor to advanced resections. Establishing a formal MILR training model through proper mentorship/proctorship and building a dedicated MILR team would be imperative to this strategy.

Nontumor related risk score: A new tool to improve prediction of prognosis after hepatectomy for colorectal liver metastases

BACKGROUND

Prognostic stratification of patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis based solely on tumor-related factors has only moderate discriminatory ability. We hypothesized that the inclusion of nontumor related factors can improve prediction of long-term prognosis of patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis.

METHODS

Nontumor related laboratory markers were assessed utilizing a training cohort from 2 U.S. institutions (n = 1,205). Factors independently associated with prognosis were used to develop a nontumor related prognostic score. The discriminatory ability, assessed by Harrell's C-statistics (C-index) and net reclassification improvement, was validated and compared with 3 commonly used tumor-related clinical risk scores: Fong clinical risk scores, m-clinical risk scores, and Genetic and Morphological Evaluation (GAME) score in an external validation cohort from 5 Asian (n = 1,307) and 3 European (n = 1,058) institutions. The discriminatory ability of nontumor related prognostic score combined with each of these 3 tumor-related prognostic scores was also estimated.

RESULTS

Alkaline phosphatase (hazard ratio 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.84), albumin (hazard ratio 0.71; 95% confidence interval, 0.57-0.89), and mean corpuscular volume (hazard ratio 19.0, per log unit; 95% confidence interval, 4.79-75.0) were each independently associated with increased risk of death after resection of colorectal cancer liver metastasis (all P < .05). In turn, alkaline phosphatase, albumin, and mean corpuscular volume were combined to form a nontumor related prognostic score (2.942 × mean corpuscular volume + 0.399 × alkaline phosphatase-0.339 × albumin-12) × 10 (median, 16; range, 1-30). The nontumor related prognostic score had good-to-modest discriminatory ability in the external cohort (C-index = 0.58), which was comparable to the 3 established tumor-related prognostic scores (C-index: Fong clinical risk scores, 0.53, m-clinical risk scores, 0.55, GAME, 0.58). The addition of the nontumor related prognostic score to the tumor-related prognostic scores enhanced the discriminatory ability in the entire study cohort (C-index: nontumor related score+Fong, 0.60, nontumor related score+m-clinical risk scores, 0.61, nontumor related score+GAME, 0.64), as well reclassification improvement (42.5, 42.7%, and 21.2%, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Nontumor related prognostic information may help improve the prognostic stratification of patients after resection of colorectal cancer liver metastasis. The nontumor related prognostic score may be combined with tumor-related prognostic tools to enhance prognostic stratification of patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis.

Salivary miRNAs as non-invasive biomarkers of hepatocellular carcinoma: a pilot study

BACKGROUND

Improved detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is needed, as current detection methods, such as alpha fetoprotein (AFP) and ultrasound, suffer from poor sensitivity. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are small, non-coding RNAs that regulate many cellular functions and impact cancer development and progression. Notably, miRNAs are detectable in saliva and have shown potential as non-invasive biomarkers for a number of cancers including breast, oral, and lung cancers. Here, we present, to our knowledge, the first report of salivary miRNAs in HCC and compare these findings to patients with cirrhosis, a high-risk cohort for HCC.

METHODS

We performed small RNA sequencing in 20 patients with HCC and 19 with cirrhosis. Eleven patients with HCC had chronic liver disease, and analyses were performed with these samples combined and stratified by the presence of chronic liver disease. P values were adjusted for multiple comparisons using a false discovery rate (FDR) approach and miRNA with FDR P < 0.05 were considered statistically significant. Differential expression of salivary miRNAs was compared to a previously published report of miRNAs in liver tissue of patients with HCC vs cirrhosis. Support vector machines and leave-one-out cross-validation were performed to determine if salivary miRNAs have predictive potential for detecting HCC.

RESULTS

A total of 4,565 precursor and mature miRNAs were detected in saliva and 365 were significantly different between those with HCC compared to cirrhosis (FDR P < 0.05). Interestingly, 283 of these miRNAs were significantly downregulated in patients with HCC. Machine-learning identified a combination of 10 miRNAs and covariates that accurately classified patients with HCC (AUC = 0.87). In addition, we identified three miRNAs that were differentially expressed in HCC saliva samples and in a previously published study of miRNAs in HCC tissue compared to cirrhotic liver tissue.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates, for the first time, that miRNAs relevant to HCC are detectable in saliva, that salivary miRNA signatures show potential to be highly sensitive and specific non-invasive biomarkers of HCC, and that additional studies utilizing larger cohorts are needed.

Optimal Timing of Administration of Direct-acting Antivirals for Patients With Hepatitis C-associated Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Liver Transplantation

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the optimal timing of direct acting antiviral (DAA) administration in patients with hepatitis C-associated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing liver transplantation (LT).

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

In patients with hepatitis C (HCV) associated HCC undergoing LT, the optimal timing of direct-acting antivirals (DAA) administration to achieve sustained virologic response (SVR) and improved oncologic outcomes remains a topic of much debate.

METHODS

The United States HCC LT Consortium (2015-2019) was reviewed for patients with primary HCV-associated HCC who underwent LT and received DAA therapy at 20 institutions. Primary outcomes were SVR and HCC recurrence-free survival (RFS).

RESULTS

Of 857 patients, 725 were within Milan criteria. SVR was associated with improved 5-year RFS (92% vs 77%, P < 0.01). Patients who received DAAs pre-LT, 0-3 months post-LT, and ≥3 months post-LT had SVR rates of 91%, 92%, and 82%, and 5-year RFS of 93%, 94%, and 87%, respectively. Among 427 HCV treatment-naïve patients (no previous interferon therapy), patients who achieved SVR with DAAs had improved 5-year RFS (93% vs 76%, P < 0.01). Patients who received DAAs pre-LT, 0-3 months post-LT, and ≥3 months post-LT had SVR rates of 91%, 93%, and 78% (P < 0.01) and 5-year RFS of 93%, 100%, and 83% (P = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The optimal timing of DAA therapy appears to be 0 to 3 months after LT for HCV-associated HCC, given increased rates of SVR and improved RFS. Delayed administration after transplant should be avoided. A prospective randomized controlled trial is warranted to validate these results.

Salivary Metabolites are Promising Non-Invasive Biomarkers of Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Chronic Liver Disease

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading causes of cancer mortality worldwide. Improved tools are needed for detecting HCC so that treatment can begin as early as possible. Current diagnostic approaches and existing biomarkers, such as alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) lack sensitivity, resulting in too many false negative diagnoses. Machine-learning may be able to identify combinations of biomarkers that provide more robust predictions and improve sensitivity for detecting HCC. We sought to evaluate whether metabolites in patient saliva could distinguish those with HCC, cirrhosis, and those with no documented liver disease.

Methods and Results

We tested 125 salivary metabolites from 110 individuals (43 healthy, 37 HCC, 30 cirrhosis) and identified 4 metabolites that displayed significantly different abundance between groups (FDR P <.2). We also developed four tree-based, machine-learning models, optimized to include different numbers of metabolites, that were trained using cross-validation on 99 patients and validated on a withheld test set of 11 patients. A model using 12 metabolites -octadecanol, acetophenone, lauric acid, 1-monopalmitin, dodecanol, salicylaldehyde, glycyl-proline, 1-monostearin, creatinine, glutamine, serine and 4-hydroxybutyric acid- had a cross-validated sensitivity of 84.8%, specificity of 92.4% and correctly classified 90% of the HCC patients in the test cohort. This model outperformed previously reported sensitivities and specificities for AFP (20-100ng/ml) (61%, 86%) and AFP plus ultrasound (62%, 88%).

Conclusions and Impact

Metabolites detectable in saliva may represent products of disease pathology or a breakdown in liver function. Notably, combinations of salivary metabolites derived from machine-learning may serve as promising non-invasive biomarkers for the detection of HCC.

Conditional probability of graft survival in liver transplantation using donation after circulatory death grafts - a retrospective study

The use of livers from donation after circulatory death (DCD) is historically characterized by increased rates of biliary complications and inferior short-term graft survival (GS) compared to donation after brain death (DBD) allografts. This study aimed to evaluate the dynamic prognostic impact of DCD livers to reveal whether they remain an adverse factor even after patients survive a certain period following liver transplant (LT). This study used 74 961 LT patients including 4065 DCD LT in the scientific registry of transplant recipients from 2002-2017. The actual, 1 and 3-year conditional hazard ratio (HR) of 1-year GS in DCD LT were calculated using a conditional version of Cox regression model. The actual 1-, 3-, and 5-year GS of DCD LT recipients were 83.3%, 73.3%, and 66.3%, which were significantly worse than those of DBD (all P < 0.01). Actual, 1-, and 3-year conditional HR of 1-year GS in DCD compared to DBD livers were 1.87, 1.49, and 1.39, respectively. Graft loss analyses showed that those lost to biliary related complications were significantly higher in the DCD group even 3 years after LT. National registry data demonstrate the protracted higher risks inherent to DCD liver grafts in comparison to their DBD counterparts, despite survival through the early period after LT. These findings underscore the importance of judicious DCD graft selection at individual center level to minimize the risk of long-term biliary complications.

Validation of the IWATE criteria as a laparoscopic liver resection difficulty score in a single North American cohort

BACKGROUND

Laparoscopic liver resection (LLR) involves a difficult learning curve, for which multiple difficulty scores have been proposed to assist with safe adaptation. The IWATE Criteria is a 4-level difficulty score shown to correlate with conversion to open surgery, estimated blood loss (EBL), and operative time in Japanese and French cohorts. We set out to validate the IWATE Criteria in a North American cohort, describe the evolution of our LLR program, and analyze the IWATE Criteria's ability to predict conversion to open surgery.

METHODS

Patients that underwent LLR between January 2006 and December 2019 were selected from a prospectively maintained database. Difficulty outcomes, including conversion to open surgery, EBL, operative time, and post-operative complications were analyzed according to IWATE difficulty level, both overall and between chronological eras. The IWATE Criteria's ability to predict conversion to open surgery was assessed with a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 426 patients met inclusion criteria. Operative time, EBL, and conversion to open surgery increased in concordance with low to advanced IWATE difficulty. ROC analysis for conversion to open surgery demonstrated an overall area under the curve (AUC) of 0.694. Predictive performance was superior during the first two eras, with AUCs of 0.771 and 0.775; predictive value decreased as the LLR program gained experience, with AUCs of 0.708 and 0.551 for eras three and four.

CONCLUSIONS

This study validated the IWATE Criteria in a North American population distinct from previous Japanese and French cohorts, based on its correlation with operative time, EBL, and conversion to open surgery. The IWATE Criteria may be of utility for identification of LLR cases appropriate for surgeon experience, as well as determination of laparoscopic feasibility. Interval difficulty score recalibration may be warranted as surgeon perception of difficulty evolves.

Performance of two prognostic scores that incorporate genetic information to predict long-term outcomes following resection of colorectal cancer liver metastases: An external validation of the MD Anderson and JHH-MSK scores

INTRODUCTION

Two novel clinical risk scores (CRS) that incorporate KRAS mutation status were developed: modified CRS (mCRS) and GAME score. However, they have not been tested in large national and international cohorts. The aim of this study was to validate the prognostic discrimination utility and determine the clinical usefulness of the two novel CRS.

METHODS

Patients undergoing hepatectomy for CRLM (2000-2018) in 10 centers were included. The discriminatory abilities of mCRS, GAME, and Fong CRS were evaluated using Harrell's C-index and Akaike's Information Criterion.

RESULTS

In the entire cohort, the C-index of the GAME score (0.61) was significantly higher than those of Fong score (0.57) and mCRS (0.54), while the C-Index of mCRS was significantly lower than that of Fong score. When we compared the models in the various geographical regions, the C-index of GAME score was significantly higher than that of mCRS in North America, Europe, and South America. The AIC of Fong score, mCRS, and GAME score were 14 405, 14 447, and 14 319, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, using the largest and most heterogenous population of CRLM patients with known KRAS status, this independent, external validation demonstrated that the GAME score outperforms both the traditional Fong score and mCRS.

Variation in Drain Management Among Patients Undergoing Major Hepatectomy

BACKGROUND

Although previous studies have suggested that drain management is highly variable, data on drain placement and timing of drain removal among patients undergoing hepatic resection remain scarce. The objective of the current study was to define the utilization of drain placement among patients undergoing major hepatic resection.

METHODS

The ACS NSQIP-targeted hepatectomy database was used to identify patients who underwent major hepatectomy between 2014 and 2017. Association between day of drain removal, timing of discharge, and drain fluid bilirubin on postoperative day (POD) 3 (DFB-3) was assessed. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to compare outcomes of patients with a drain removed before and after POD 3.

RESULTS

Among 5330 patients, most patients had an abdominal drain placed at the time of hepatic resection (n = 3075, 57.7%). Of 2495 patients with data on timing of drain removal, only 380 patients (15.2%) had their drain removed by POD 3. Almost 1 in 6 patients (n = 441, 17.7%) were discharged home with the drain in place. DFB-3 values correlated poorly with POD of drain removal (R² = 0.0049). After PSM, early drain removal (≤ POD 3) was associated with lower rates of grade B or C bile leakage (2.1% vs. 7.1%, p = 0.008) and prolonged length of hospital stay (6.0% vs. 12.7%, p = 0.009) compared with delayed drain removal (> POD 3).

CONCLUSIONS

Roughly 3 in 5 patients had a drain placed at the time of major hepatectomy and only 1 in 7 patients had the drain removed early. This study demonstrated the potential benefits of early drain removal in an effort to improve the quality of care following major hepatectomy.

Evaluating the Accuracy of the Endoscopic ABC Classification System in Diagnosing Helicobacter pylori-Infected Gastritis

AIMS

Evaluating the accuracy of the modified Endoscopic ABC (Endo ABC) classification with an electronic endoscopy with narrow band imaging without magnification in diagnosing Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori)-infected gastritis.

METHODS

A total of 576 patients were enrolled and they underwent modified Endo ABC. They were stratified into 5 groups (A to E) based on the grades of endoscopic findings. H. pylori-infected gastritis status was determined in the following ways: current H. pylori gastritis was defined as active gastritis and/or chronic atrophic gastritis (CAG) seen on endoscopy and positive H. pylori test, naïve H. pylori gastritis was defined as regular arrangement of collecting venules in the angle of the lesser curvature without CAG and negative H. pylori test, and previous H. pylori gastritis was defined as negative H. pylori tests regardless of the presence of CAG.

RESULTS

Endo A has 97% accuracy and 100% positive predictive value in diagnosing naïve H. pylori gastritis. Endo E has 97% accuracy and 100% positive predictive value in diagnosing previous H. pylori gastritis. The accuracy of Endo B and Endo C in diagnosing current H. pylori gastritis was 89 and 82% respectively. Endo D has 87% accuracy in diagnosing previous H. pylori gastritis.

CONCLUSION

This study showed that the modified Endo ABC classification enables to accurately determine the H. pylori-infected gastritis status.

Very Early Recurrence After Liver Resection for Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: Considering Alternative Treatment Approaches

Importance

Although surgery offers the best chance of a potential cure for patients with localized, resectable intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), prognosis of patients remains dismal largely because of a high incidence of recurrence.

Objective

To predict very early recurrence (VER) (ie, recurrence within 6 months after surgery) following resection for ICC in the pre- and postoperative setting.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Patients who underwent curative-intent resection for ICC between May 1990 and July 2016 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. The study was conducted at The Ohio State University in collaboration with all other participating institutions. The data were analyzed in December 2019.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Two logistic regression models were constructed to predict VER based on pre- and postoperative variables. The final models were used to develop an online calculator to predict VER and the tool was internally and externally validated.

Results

Among 880 patients (median age, 59 years [interquartile range, 51-68 years]; 388 women [44.1%]; 428 [50.2%] white; 377 [44.3%] Asian; 27 [3.2%] black]), 196 (22.3%) developed VER. The 5-year overall survival among patients with and without VER was 8.9% vs 49.8%, respectively (P < .001). A preoperative model was able to stratify patients relative to the risk for VER: low risk (6-month recurrence-free survival [RFS], 87.7%), intermediate risk (6-month RFS, 72.3%), and high risk (6-month RFS, 49.5%) (log-rank P < .001). The postoperative model similarly identified discrete cohorts of patients based on probability for VER: low risk (6-month RFS, 90.0%), intermediate risk (6-month RFS, 73.1%), and high risk (6-month RFS, 48.5%) (log-rank, P < .001). The calibration and predictive accuracy of the pre- and postoperative models were good in the training (C index: preoperative, 0.710; postoperative, 0.722) as well as the internal (C index: preoperative, 0.715; postoperative, 0.728; bootstrapping resamples, n = 5000) and external (C index: postoperative, 0.672) validation data sets.

Conclusion and Relevance

An easy-to-use online calculator was developed to help clinicians predict the chance of VER after curative-intent resection for ICC. The tool performed well on internal and external validation. This tool may help clinicians in the preoperative selection of patients for neoadjuvant therapy as well as during the postoperative period to inform surveillance strategies.

Machine learning predicts unpredicted deaths with high accuracy following hepatopancreatic surgery

Background

Machine learning to predict morbidity and mortality-especially in a population traditionally considered low risk-has not been previously examined. We sought to characterize the incidence of death among patients with a low estimated morbidity and mortality risk based on the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) estimated probability (EP), as well as develop a machine learning model to identify individuals at risk for "unpredicted death" (UD) among patients undergoing hepatopancreatic (HP) procedures.

Methods

The NSQIP database was used to identify patients who underwent elective HP surgery between 2012-2017. The risk of morbidity and mortality was stratified into three tiers (low, intermediate, or high estimated) using a k-means clustering method with bin sorting. A machine learning classification tree and multivariable regression analyses were used to predict 30-day mortality with a 10-fold cross validation. C statistics were used to compare model performance.

Results

Among 63,507 patients who underwent an HP procedure, median patient age was 63 (IQR: 54-71) years. Patients underwent either pancreatectomy (n=38,209, 60.2%) or hepatic resection (n=25,298, 39.8%). Patients were stratified into three tiers of predicted morbidity and mortality risk based on the NSQIP EP: low (n=36,923, 58.1%), intermediate (n=23,609, 37.2%) and high risk (n=2,975, 4.7%). Among 36,923 patients with low estimated risk of morbidity and mortality, 237 patients (0.6%) experienced a UD. According to the classification tree analysis, age was the most important factor to predict UD (importance 16.9) followed by preoperative albumin level (importance: 10.8), disseminated cancer (importance: 6.5), preoperative platelet count (importance: 6.5), and sex (importance 5.9). Among patients deemed to be low risk, the c-statistic for the machine learning derived prediction model was 0.807 compared with an AUC of only 0.662 for the NSQIP EP.

Conclusions

A prognostic model derived using machine learning methodology performed better than the NSQIP EP in predicting 30-day UD among low risk patients undergoing HP surgery.

Quality of Care Among Medicare Patients Undergoing Pancreatic Surgery: Safety Grade, Magnet Recognition, and Leapfrog Minimum Volume Standards-Which Quality Benchmark Matters?

BACKGROUND

The association of national quality benchmarking metrics with postoperative outcomes following complex surgery remains unknown. We assessed the relationship between the "quality trifactor" of Leapfrog minimum volume standards, Hospital Safety Grade A, and Magnet Recognition with outcomes of Medicare patients undergoing pancreatectomy.

METHODS

The Standard Analytic Files (SAF) merged with Leapfrog Hospital Survey and Leapfrog Safety Scores Denominator Files were reviewed to identify Medicare patients who underwent pancreatic procedures between 2013 and 2015. Primary outcomes were overall and serious complications, as well as 30- and 90-day mortality. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to evaluate possible associations among hospitals meeting the quality trifactor and short-term outcomes.

RESULTS

Among 4853 Medicare patients, 909 (18.7%) underwent pancreatectomy at hospitals meeting the quality trifactor. Among 260 hospitals, 7.3% (n = 19) met the quality trifactor. Safety Grade A (48.8%, n = 127) was the most commonly met criterion followed by Magnet Recognition (36.2%, n = 94); the Leapfrog minimum volume standards were achieved by 25% (n = 65) of hospitals. Patients undergoing surgery at hospitals that were only Safety Grade A and Magnet designated, but did not meet Leapfrog criteria, had higher odds of serious complications (OR 1.59, 95% CI 1.00-2.51). In contrast, patients undergoing treatment at hospitals having all three designations (i.e., the quality trifactor) had 40% and 39% lower odds of both serious complications (OR 0.60, 95% CI 0.37-0.97) and 90-day mortality (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.42-0.89), respectively. In turn, patients undergoing pancreatectomy at quality trifactor hospitals had higher odds of experiencing the composite quality measure textbook outcome (OR 1.28, 95% CI 1.03-1.59) versus patients undergoing pancreatectomy at non-trifactor hospitals.

CONCLUSION

While Safety Grade A and Magnet designation alone were not associated with higher odds of an optimal composite outcome following pancreatectomy, compliance with Leapfrog criteria to achieve the "quality trifactor" metric was associated with lower odds of serious complications and mortality.

Long-Term Outcomes after Spleen-Preserving Distal Pancreatectomy for Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors: Results from the US Neuroendocrine Study Group

BACKGROUND

The adoption of spleen-preserving distal pancreatectomy (SPDP) for malignant disease such as pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNETs) has been controversial. The objective of the current study was to assess the impact of SPDP on outcomes of patients with pNETs.

METHODS

Patients undergoing a distal pancreatectomy for pNET between 2002 and 2016 were identified in the US Neuroendocrine Tumor Study Group database. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to compare short- and long-term outcomes of patients undergoing SPDP versus distal pancreatectomy with splenectomy (DPS).

RESULTS

Among 621 patients, 103 patients (16.6%) underwent an SPDP. Patients who underwent SPDP were more likely to have lower BMI (median, 27.5 [IQR 24.0-31.2] vs. 28.7 [IQR 25.7-33.6]; p = 0.005) and have undergone minimally invasive surgery (n = 56, 54.4% vs. n = 185, 35.7%; p < 0.001). After PSM, while the median total number of lymph nodes examined among patients who underwent an SPDP was lower compared with DPS (3 [IQR 1-8] vs. 9 [5-13]; p < 0.001), 5-year overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were comparable (OS: 96.8 vs. 92.0%, log-rank p = 0.21, RFS: 91.1 vs. 84.7%, log-rank p = 0.93). In addition, patients undergoing SPDP had less intraoperative blood loss (median, 100 mL [IQR 10-250] vs. 150 mL [IQR 100-400]; p = 0.001), lower incidence of serious complications (n = 13, 12.8% vs. n = 28, 27.5%; p = 0.014), and shorter length of stay (median: 5 days [IQR 4-7] vs. 6 days [IQR 5-13]; p = 0.049) compared with patients undergoing DPS.

CONCLUSION

SPDP for pNET was associated with acceptable perioperative and long-term outcomes that were comparable to DPS. SPDP should be considered for patients with pNET.

Nutrition Support in Liver Transplantation and Postoperative Recovery: The Effects of Vitamin D Level and Vitamin D Supplementation in Liver Transplantation

Vitamin D plays an important role in the arena of liver transplantation. In addition to affecting skeletal health significantly, it also clinically exerts immune-modulatory properties. Vitamin D deficiency is one of the nutritional issues in the perioperative period of liver transplantation (LT). Although vitamin D deficiency is known to contribute to higher incidences of acute cellular rejection (ACR) and graft failure in other solid organ transplantation, such as kidneys and lungs, its role in LT is not well understood. The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical implication of vitamin D deficiency in LT. LT outcomes were reviewed in a retrospective cohort of 528 recipients during 2014-2019. In the pre-transplant period, 55% of patients were vitamin-D-deficient. The serum vitamin D level was correlated with the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD-Na) score. Vitamin D deficiency in the post-transplant period was associated with lower survival after LT, and the post-transplant supplementation of vitamin D was associated with a lower risk of ACR. The optimal vitamin D status and vitamin D supplementation in the post-transplant period may prolong survival and reduce ACR incidence.

How Safe Are Safety-Net Hospitals? Opportunities to Improve Outcomes for Vulnerable Patients Undergoing Hepatopancreaticobiliary Surgery

INTRODUCTION

Safety-net hospitals are critical to the US health system as they provide care to vulnerable patients. The effect of hospital safety-net burden on patient outcomes in hepatopancreaticobiliary (HPB) surgery was examined.

METHODS

Discharge data between 2004 and 2014 from the National Inpatient Sample were utilized. Hospitals with a safety-net burden were divided into tertiles: low (LBH) (< 13.6%), medium (MBH) (13.6-33.3%), and high (HBH) (> 33.3%). The association of hospital safety-net burden with complications, in-hospital mortality, never events, and costs were defined.

RESULTS

Nearly 5% of the analytic cohort (n = 65,032) had surgery at a HBH. Patients treated at HBH were younger (median age, HBH 55 years vs LBH 62 years; p < 0.001), black or Hispanic (HBH 40.5% vs LBH 12.7%; p < 0.001), and of lowest income quartile (HBH 38.4% vs LBH 19.6%; p < 0.001). One-third of patients at HBH experienced a complication compared with only a quarter of patients at LBH (p < 0.001). HBH had higher rates of in-hospital mortality (HBH 6.5% vs. LBH 2.8%; p < 0.001), never events (HBH 5.4% vs. LBH 1.4%; p < 0.001), and a higher cost of surgery (HBH $30,716 vs. LBH $28,054; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Perioperative outcomes were worse at HBH, highlighting that efforts are needed to improve their delivery of care.

Impact of Preoperative Cholangitis on Short-term Outcomes Among Patients Undergoing Liver Resection

BACKGROUND

The impact of preoperative cholangitis (PC) on perioperative outcomes among patients undergoing liver resection remains poorly defined. We sought to characterize the prevalence of PC among patients undergoing hepatectomy and define the impact of PC on postoperative outcomes.

METHODS

Patients who underwent liver resection between 2013 and 2015 were identified using the Center for Medicare Services (CMS) 100% Limited Data Set (LDS) Standard Analytic Files (SAFs). Short-term outcomes after liver resection, stratified by the presence of PC, were examined. Subgroup analyses were performed to evaluate the relationship between the timing of liver resection relative to PC.

RESULTS

Among 7392 patients undergoing liver resection, 251 patients (3.4%) experienced PC. Patients with PC were more likely to be male (59.0% vs. 50.6%) and to have a benign diagnosis (34.3% vs. 19.8%) compared with patients without PC (both p<0.05). On multivariable analysis, PC was associated with increased odds of experiencing a complication (OR 1.54, 95%CI 1.17-2.03), extended LOS (OR 2.60, 95%CI 1.99-3.39), 90-day mortality (OR 2.31, 95%CI 1.64-3.26), and higher Medicare expenditures (OR 3.32, 95%CI 2.55-4.32). Among patients with PC, requirement of both endoscopic and percutaneous biliary drainage (OR 5.16, 95%CI 1.36-9.61), as well as liver resection < 2 weeks after PC (OR 2.92, 95%CI 1.13-7.57) were associated with higher odds of 90-day mortality.

CONCLUSION

Approximately 1 in 30 Medicare beneficiaries undergoing liver resection had a history of PC. PC was associated with an increased risk of adverse short-term outcomes and higher healthcare expenditures among patients undergoing hepatectomy.

Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery: the Role of Clinical Resources and Variation in Performance of Hospitals Located in "Distressed" Communities

INTRODUCTION

The USA has one of the largest known income-based health disparities, with low-income adults being up to five times more likely to report being in poor health. We evaluated the association of hospital zip-code-based distressed communities index (DCI) with post-surgical outcomes following hepatopancreatobiliary (HPB) surgery.

METHODS

Adults undergoing HPB surgery were identified in the National Inpatient Sample. The association between hospital socioeconomic distress and outcomes including complications, mortality, failure to rescue (FTR), and never events were compared between high-distress facilities (HDF) and low-distress facilities (LDF).

RESULTS

A total of 11,119 (37.8%) patients underwent an operation at an HDF. Patients treated at HDF were younger (18-39 years, HDF: n = 1261, 11.3% vs. LDF: n = 966, 9.0%; p < 0.001), Black/Hispanic (HDF: n = 2060, 18.5% vs. LDF: n = 1440, 11.4%; p < 0.001) and in the lowest income quartile (HDF: n = 2825, 25.4% vs. LDF: n = 1116, 10.8%; p < 0.001). While complications were comparable at HDF versus LDF (HDF: n = 2483, 22.3% vs. LDF: n = 2370, 22.0%; p = 0.28), patients treated at HDF had higher odds of in-hospital mortality (OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.07-1.59), FTR (OR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.02-1.52), and a never event (OR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.29-2.39; all p < 0.001). Hospitals having advanced internal medicine services had reduced odds of mortality (OR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.47-0.80) whereas high nurse-to-patient ratio was associated with reduced odds of a complication (OR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.81-0.98).

CONCLUSION

Approximately 40% of patients were admitted to HDF. These patients were more likely to be Black/Hispanic and underinsured. Perioperative outcomes were worse at HDF following HPB surgery.

A Novel Machine-Learning Approach to Predict Recurrence After Resection of Colorectal Liver Metastases

BACKGROUND

Surgical resection of hepatic metastases remains the only potentially curative treatment option for patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM). Widely adopted prognostic tools may oversimplify the impact of model parameters relative to long-term outcomes.

METHODS

Patients with CRLM who underwent a hepatectomy between 2001 and 2018 were identified in an international, multi-institutional database. Bootstrap resampling methodology used in tandem with multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression analysis was applied to construct a prediction model that was validated and compared with scores proposed by Fong and Vauthey.

RESULTS

Among 1406 patients who underwent hepatic resection of CRLM, 842 (59.9%) had recurrence. The full model (based on age, sex, primary tumor location, T stage, receipt of chemotherapy before hepatectomy, lymph node metastases, number of metastatic lesions in the liver, size of the largest hepatic metastases, carcinoembryonic antigen [CEA] level and KRAS status) had good discriminative ability to predict 1-year (area under the receiver operating curve [AUC], 0.693; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.684-0.704), 3-year (AUC, 0.669; 95% CI, 0.661-0.677), and 5-year (AUC, 0.669; 95% CI, 0.661-0.679) risk of recurrence. Studies analyzing validation cohorts demonstrated similar model performance, with excellent model accuracy. In contrast, the AUCs for the Fong and Vauthey scores to predict 1-year recurrence were only 0.527 (95% CI, 0.514-0.538) and 0.525 (95% CI, 0.514-0.533), respectively. Similar trends were noted for 3- and 5-year recurrence.

CONCLUSION

The proposed clinical score, derived via machine learning, which included clinical characteristics and morphologic data, as well as information on KRAS status, accurately predicted recurrence after CRLM resection with good discrimination and prognostic ability.

Development and validation of a real-time mortality risk calculator before, during and after hepatectomy: an analysis of the ACS NSQIP database

BACKGROUND

Although most conventional risk prediction models have been based on preoperative information, intra- and post-operative events may be more relevant to mortality after surgery. We sought to develop a mortality risk calculator based on real time characteristics associated with hepatectomy.

METHODS

Patients who underwent hepatectomy between 2014 and 2017 were identified in the ACS-NSQIP dataset. Three prediction models (pre-, intra-, post-operative) were developed and validated using perioperative data.

RESULTS

Among 14,720 patients, 197 (1.3%) experienced 30-day mortality. The predictive ability of the real-time mortality risk calculator was very good based on only preoperative factors (AUC; training cohort: 0.813, validation cohort: 0.731). Incorporating intra-operative variables into the model increased the AUC (training: 0.838, validation: 0.777), while the post-operative model achieved an AUC of 0.922 in the training and 0.885 in the validation cohorts, respectively. While patients with low preoperative risk had only very small fluctuations in the estimated 30-day mortality risk during the intraoperative (Δ0.4%) and postoperative (Δ0.6%) phases, patients who were already deemed high risk preoperatively had additional increased mortality risk based on factors that occurred in the intraoperative (Δ5.4%) and postoperative (Δ9.3%) periods.

CONCLUSION

A real-time mortality risk calculator may better help clinicians identify patients at risk of death at the different stages of the surgical episode.

Prognostic factors differ according to KRAS mutational status: A classification and regression tree model to define prognostic groups after hepatectomy for colorectal liver metastasis

BACKGROUND

Although KRAS mutation status is known to affect the prognosis of patients with colorectal liver metastasis, the hierarchical association between other prognostic factors and KRAS status is not fully understood.

METHODS

Patients who underwent a hepatectomy for colorectal liver metastasis were identified in a multi-institutional international database. A classification and regression tree model was constructed to investigate the hierarchical association between prognostic factors and overall survival relative to KRAS status.

RESULTS

Among 1,123 patients, 29.9% (n = 336) had a KRAS mutation. Among wtKRAS patients, the classification and regression tree model identified presence of metastatic lymph nodes as the most important prognostic factor, whereas among mtKRAS patients, carcinoembryonic antigen level was identified as the most important prognostic factor. Among patients with wtKRAS, the highest 5-year overall survival (68.5%) was noted among patients with node negative primary colorectal cancer, solitary colorectal liver metastases, size <4.3 cm. In contrast, among patients with mtKRAS colorectal liver metastases, the highest 5-year overall survival (57.5%) was observed among patients with carcinoembryonic antigen <6 mg/mL. The classification and regression tree model had higher prognostic accuracy than the Fong score (wtKRAS [Akaike's Information Criterion]: classification and regression tree model 3334 vs Fong score 3341; mtKRAS [Akaike's Information Criterion]: classification and regression tree model 1356 vs Fong score 1396).

CONCLUSION

Machine learning methodology outperformed the traditional Fong clinical risk score and identified different factors, based on KRAS mutational status, as predictors of long-term prognosis.

Correction to: Trends in the Number of Lymph Nodes Evaluated Among Patients with Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors in the United States: A Multi-Institutional and National Database Analysis

In the original article, Ryan C. Fields' middle initial is missing.

Influence of hospital teaching status on the chance to achieve a textbook outcome after hepatopancreatic surgery for cancer among Medicare beneficiaries

BACKGROUND

Assessing composite measures of quality such as textbook outcome may be superior to focusing on individual parameters when evaluating hospital performance. The aim of the current study was to assess the impact of teaching hospital status on the occurrence of a textbook outcome after hepatopancreatic surgery.

METHODS

The Medicare Inpatient Standard Analytic Files were used to identify patients undergoing hepatopancreatic surgery from 2013 to 2015 for a malignant indication. Stratified and multivariable regression analyses were performed to determine the relationship between teaching hospital status, hospital surgical volume and textbook outcome.

RESULTS

Among 8,035 Medicare patients (hepatectomy; 41.8%, pancreatectomy; 58.2%), 6,196 (77.1%) patients underwent surgery at a major teaching hospital, whereas 1,839 (22.9%) patients underwent surgery at a minor teaching hospital. Patients undergoing surgery for pancreatic cancer at a major teaching hospital had a greater likelihood of achieving a textbook outcome compared with patients treated at a minor teaching hospital (minor teaching hospital: 456, 40% versus major teaching hospital: 1,606, 45.4%; P = .002). The likelihood of textbook outcome was also greater among patients undergoing hepatopancreatic surgery at high-volume centers (pancreas, low volume: 875, 40.5% versus high volume: 1,187, 47.1% P < .001; liver, low volume: 608, 41.8% versus high volume: 886, 46.6%; P = .005). When examining only major teaching hospitals, patients undergoing a pancreatectomy at a high-volume center had 29% greater odds of achieving a textbook outcome (odds ratio 1.29, 95% confidence interval 1.12-1.49). In contrast, among patients undergoing pancreatic resection at high-volume centers, the odds of achieving a textbook outcome was comparable among major versus minor teaching hospital (odds ratio 1.17, 95% confidence interval 0.89-1.53).

CONCLUSION

The odds of achieving a textbook outcome after pancreatic and hepatic surgery was greater at major versus minor teaching hospitals; however, this effect was largely mediated by hepatopancreatic procedural volume. Patients and payers should focus on regionalization of pancreatic and liver resection to high-volume centers in an effort to optimize the chances of achieving a textbook outcome.

Comparing textbook outcomes among patients undergoing surgery for cancer at U. S. News & World Report ranked hospitals

Background

The objective of the current study was to define and compare rates of textbook outcomes (TO) among patients undergoing colorectal, lung, esophagus, liver, and pancreatic surgery for cancer at U.S. News & World Report (USNWR) ranked hospitals.

Methods

Medicare Inpatient Standard Analytic Files 2013‐2015 were utilized to examine the relationship of TO and USNWR hospital ratings following surgery for colorectal, lung, esophageal, pancreatic, and liver cancer. TO was defined as no postoperative surgical complications, no prolonged length of hospital stay, no readmission within 90 days after discharge, and no postoperative mortality within 90 days after surgery.

Results

Among the 35,352 Medicare patients included in the cohort, 16,820 (47.6%) underwent surgery at honor roll hospitals, whereas 18 532 (52.4%) underwent surgery at non‐honor roll hospitals. The overall proportion of patients who achieved TO was 50.1%. In examining the clinical outcomes of patients who underwent surgery, there was no difference in the odds of achieving TO at honor roll vs non‐honor roll hospitals (colorectal: odds ratio [OR], 0.87; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69‐1.10; lung: OR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.87‐1.32; esophagus: OR, 1.44; 95% CI, 0.72‐2.89; liver: OR, 1.27; 95% CI, 0.87‐1.84; pancreas: OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.67‐1.62).

Conclusion and Relevance

Patients undergoing surgery for lung, esophageal, liver, pancreatic, and colorectal cancer had comparable rates of TO at honor roll vs non‐honor roll hospitals. No linear association was observed between hospital position in the rank and postoperative outcomes such as TO indicating that patients should not overly focus on the exact position within USNWR ranked hospitals. These data highlight to patients and physicians that up to one‐half of patients undergoing surgery for cancer should anticipate at least one adverse outcome.

Hepatocellular carcinoma tumour burden score to stratify prognosis after resection

BACKGROUND

Although the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system has been largely adopted in clinical practice, recent studies have emphasized the need for further refinement and subclassification of this system.

METHODS

Patients who underwent hepatectomy with curative intent for BCLC-0, -A or -B hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) between 2000 and 2017 were identified using a multi-institutional database. The tumour burden score (TBS) was calculated, and overall survival (OS) was examined in relation to TBS and BCLC stage.

RESULTS

Among 1053 patients, 63 (6·0 per cent) had BCLC-0, 826 (78·4 per cent) BCLC-A and 164 (15·6 per cent) had BCLC-B HCC. OS worsened incrementally with higher TBS (5-year OS 77·9, 61 and 39 per cent for low, medium and high TBS respectively; P < 0·001). No differences in OS were noted among patients with similar TBS, irrespective of BCLC stage (61·6 versus 58·9 per cent for BCLC-A/medium TBS versus BCLC-B/medium TBS, P = 0·930; 45 versus 13 per cent for BCLC-A/high TBS versus BCLC-B/high TBS, P = 0·175). Patients with BCLC-B HCC and a medium TBS had better OS than those with BCLC-A disease and a high TBS (58·9 versus 45 per cent; P = 0·005). On multivariable analysis, TBS remained associated with OS among patients with BCLC-A (medium TBS: hazard ratio (HR) 2·07, 95 per cent c.i. 1·42 to 3·02, P < 0·001; high TBS: HR 4·05, 2·40 to 6·82, P < 0·001) and BCLC-B (high TBS: HR 3·85, 2·03 to 7·30; P < 0·001) HCC. TBS could also stratify prognosis among patients in an external validation cohort (5-year OS 79, 51·2 and 28 per cent for low, medium and high TBS respectively; P = 0·010).

CONCLUSION

The prognosis of patients with HCC varied according to the BCLC stage but was largely dependent on the TBS.

Custom made onlay implants in peek in maxillofacial surgery: a volumetric study

PURPOSE

Facially malformed patients often present a variable degree of facial imbalance even after basal bone correction, and resolution of the residual hard- and soft-tissue deficiencies and asymmetries of the face are of great importance for achieving a satisfactory post-implant procedure result. The use of polyether ether ketone (PEEK) implants for maxillofacial reconstruction has been documented in the literature, but the number of patients who have received them is limited. The aim of this study was to evaluate the overall volumetric results in patients with facial imbalance after onlay custom implant positioning for mandible and fronto-orbital reconstructions. Analysis was performed by confronting volumes with the use of three-dimensional (3D) photogrammetry.

METHODS

Fifteen patients were eligible for PEEK implant placements, eight for mandibular angle reconstruction, and seven for fronto-orbital reconstruction. Pre- and post-surgical 3D images of each patient's face were acquired. Facial asymmetry was analyzed by comparing each face with its mirrored copy.

RESULTS

Three-dimensional analyses have shown that some degree of volume imbalance was still present in the patients with only 1.32 ± 1.02 mm residual discrepancy after treatment.

CONCLUSION

Results of the study were found to fall within clinically acceptable limits since an asymmetry rate of < 3 mm is considered to fall into the norm.

Trends in the Number of Lymph Nodes Evaluated Among Patients with Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors in the United States: A Multi-Institutional and National Database Analysis

BACKGROUND

The role of routine lymphadenectomy in the surgical treatment of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNET) remains poorly defined. The objective of the current study was to investigate trends in the number of lymph nodes (LN) evaluated for pNET treatment at a nationwide level.

METHODS

Patients undergoing surgery for pNET between 2000 and 2016 were identified in the U.S. Neuroendocrine Tumor Study Group (US-NETSG) database as well as the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The number of LNs examined was evaluated over time.

RESULTS

The median number of evaluated LNs increased roughly fourfold over the study period (US-NETSG, 2000: 3 LNs vs. 2016: 13 LNs; SEER, 2000: 3 LNs vs. 2016: 11 LNs, both p < 0.001). While no difference in 5-year OS and RFS was noted among patients who had 1-3 lymph node metastases (LNM) vs. ≥ 4 LNM between 2000-2007 (OS 73.5% vs. 69.9%, p = 0.12; RFS: 64.9% vs. 40.1%, p = 0.39), patients who underwent resection and LN evaluation during the period 2008-2016 had an incrementally worse survival if the patient had node negative disease, 1-3 LNM and ≥ 4 LNM (OS 86.8% vs. 82.7% vs. 74.9%, p < 0.001; RFS: 86.3% vs. 64.7% vs. 50.4%, p < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, a more recent year of diagnosis, pancreatic head tumor location, and tumor size > 2 cm were associated with 12 or more LNs evaluated in both US-NETSG and SEER databases.

CONCLUSION

The number of LNs examined nearly quadrupled over the last decade. The increased number of LNs examined suggested a growing adoption of the AJCC staging manual recommendations regarding LN evaluation in the treatment of pNET.

A Machine-Based Approach to Preoperatively Identify Patients with the Most and Least Benefit Associated with Resection for Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: An International Multi-institutional Analysis of 1146 Patients

BACKGROUND

Accurate risk stratification and patient selection is necessary to identify patients who will benefit the most from surgery or be better treated with other non-surgical treatment strategies. We sought to identify which patients in the preoperative setting would likely derive the most or least benefit from resection of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC).

METHODS

Patients who underwent curative-intent resection for ICC between 1990 and 2017 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. A machine-based classification and regression tree (CART) was used to generate homogeneous groups of patients relative to overall survival (OS) based on preoperative factors.

RESULTS

Among 1146 patients, CART analysis revealed tumor number and size, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade and preoperative lymph node (LN) status as the strongest prognostic factors associated with OS among patients undergoing resection for ICC. In turn, four groups of patients with distinct outcomes were generated through machine learning: Group 1 (n = 228): single ICC, size ≤ 5 cm, ALBI grade I, negative preoperative LN status; Group 2 (n = 708): (1) single tumor > 5 cm, (2) single tumor ≤ 5 cm, ALBI grade 2/3, and (3) single tumor ≤ 5 cm, ALBI grade 1, metastatic/suspicious LNs; Group 3 (n = 150): 2-3 tumors; Group 4 (n = 60): ≥ 4 tumors. 5-year OS among Group 1, 2, 3, and 4 patients was 60.5%, 35.8%, 27.5%, and 3.8%, respectively (p < 0.001). Similarly, 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) among Group 1, 2, 3, and 4 patients was 47%, 27.2%, 6.8%, and 0%, respectively (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The machine-based CART model identified distinct prognostic groups of patients with distinct outcomes based on preoperative factors. Survival decision trees may be useful as guides in preoperative patient selection and risk stratification.

Potential disease burden of patients with substance abuse undergoing major abdominal surgery: A propensity score-matched analysis

BACKGROUND

Over 19 million Americans have a substance abuse disorder. The current study sought to characterize the relationship between substance abuse with in-hospital outcomes following major, elective abdominal surgery.

METHODS

The Nationwide Inpatient Sample was used to identify patients who underwent major abdominal surgery between 2007 to 2014. Patients with preoperative substance abuse, including alcohol, opioids, and non-opioid drugs, were identified. Propensity score matching was used to examine the association of substance abuse with perioperative outcomes.

RESULTS

Among 301,659 patients, 7,925 patients (2.6%) had a history of substance abuse. Pancreatectomy was the surgical procedure with the highest proportion of patients with substance abuse history (n = 844, 4.7%). Compared with patients without a substance abuse history, patients with a substance abuse history were more likely to be younger (median age, 60 years [interquartile range (IQR) 52-69] vs 63 years [IQR 52-72]), male (n = 5,438, 67.5% vs n = 132,961, 54.7%), and be in the lowest income category (n = 2,062, 26% vs n = 64,345, 21.9%) (all P < .001). On propensity score matching, substance abuse was associated with increased odds ratio of experiencing a complication (odds ratio [OR] 1.68, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.55-1.82), non-home discharge (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.76-2.16), extended length of stay (OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.76-2.02), and higher expenditure (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.49-1.77). Stratified by the type of substance abuse, patients with history of alcohol (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.44-1.71) and drug abuse (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.14-1.39) were more likely to experience a complication, whereas only history of alcohol abuse was associated with higher odds ratio of in-hospital mortality (OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.07-1.79) (all P < .05).

CONCLUSION

Up to 1 in 50 patients undergoing complex abdominal surgery had a substance abuse history. History of substance abuse was associated with an increased risk of adverse perioperative outcomes and higher healthcare expenditures.