Worldwide trends in body-mass index, underweight, overweight, and obesity from 1975 to 2016: a pooled analysis of 2416 population-based measurement studies in 128·9 million children, adolescents, and adults

BACKGROUND

Underweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults.

METHODS

We pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5-19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5-19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity).

FINDINGS

Regional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (-0·01 kg/m2 per decade; 95% credible interval -0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m2 per decade (0·69-1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m2 per decade (0·64-1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m2 per decade (-0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m2 per decade (0·50-1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4-1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8-6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5-1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7-9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0-12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8-10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4-19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3-14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7-29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5-38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44-117) million girls and 117 (70-178) million boys worldwide were moderately or severely underweight. In the same year, 50 (24-89) million girls and 74 (39-125) million boys worldwide were obese.

INTERPRETATION

The rising trends in children's and adolescents' BMI have plateaued in many high-income countries, albeit at high levels, but have accelerated in parts of Asia, with trends no longer correlated with those of adults.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme.

Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants

BACKGROUND

Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30-79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age.

FINDINGS

The number of people aged 30-79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306-359) million women and 317 (292-344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584-668) million women and 652 (604-698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55-62) of women and 49% (46-52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43-51) of women and 38% (35-41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20-27) for women and 18% (16-21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings.

FUNDING

WHO.

N-Terminal–Pro-Brain Natriuretic Peptide Predicts Outcome After Hospital Discharge in Heart Failure Patients

Background— Heart failure (HF) is responsible for a huge burden in hospital care. Our goal was to evaluate the value of N-terminal–pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in predicting death or hospital readmission after discharge of HF patients.

Methods and Results— We included 182 patients consecutively admitted to hospital because of decompensated HF. Patients were followed up for 6 months. The primary end point was death or readmission. Twenty-six patients died in hospital. The median admission NT-proBNP level was 6778.5 pg/mL, and the median level at discharge was 4137.0 pg/mL ( P <0.001). Patients were classified into 3 groups: (1) decreasing NT-proBNP levels by at least 30% (n=82), (2) no significant modifications on NT-proBNP levels (n=49), and (3) increasing NT-proBNP levels by at least 30% (n=25). The primary end point was observed in 42.9% patients. Variables associated with an increased hazard of death and/or hospital readmission in univariate analysis were length of hospitalization, heart rate, signs of volume overload, no use of ACE inhibitors, higher NYHA class at discharge, admission and discharge NT-proBNP, and the change in NT-proBNP levels. The variation in NT-proBNP was the strongest predictor of an adverse outcome. Independent variables associated with an increased risk of readmission or death were signs of volume overload and the change in NT-proBNP levels.

Conclusions— Variations in NT-proBNP levels are related to hospital readmission and death within 6 months. NT-proBNP levels are potentially useful in the evaluation of treatment efficacy and might help clinicians in planning discharge of HF patients. Whether therapeutic strategies aimed to lower NT-proBNP levels modify prognosis warrants future investigation.

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

BACKGROUND

Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5-19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median).

FINDINGS

From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness.

INTERPRETATION

The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK), and European Union.

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities1,2. This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity3-6. Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

BACKGROUND

Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents.

METHODS

For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5-19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence.

FINDINGS

We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9-10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes-gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both-occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls.

INTERPRETATION

The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme, EU.

Consensus for tinnitus patient assessment and treatment outcome measurement: Tinnitus Research Initiative meeting, Regensburg, July 2006

There is widespread recognition that consistency between research centres in the ways that patients with tinnitus are assessed and outcomes following interventions are measured would facilitate more effective co-operation and more meaningful evaluations and comparisons of outcomes. At the first Tinnitus Research Initiative meeting held in Regensburg in July 2006 an attempt was made through workshops to gain a consensus both for patient assessments and for outcome measurements. It is hoped that this will contribute towards better cooperation between research centres in finding and evaluating treatments for tinnitus by allowing better comparability between studies.

Intake and adipose tissue composition of fatty acids and risk of myocardial infarction in a male Portuguese community sample

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the relation between intake and adipose tissue composition of fatty acids and acute myocardial infarction in Portuguese men.

DESIGN

Case-control study. Diet was assessed using a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. In 49 case and 49 control subjects, adipose tissue composition was assessed by gas-liquid chromatography.

SUBJECTS/SETTING

Population-based; subjects were 297 consecutively admitted cases of first acute myocardial infarction in a tertiary care hospital who were aged>or=40 years. Three hundred ten community controls were selected by random-digit dialing.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Odds ratio (OR).

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS PERFORMED

Logistic regression, adjusting for age, education, family history of acute myocardial infarction, smoking, physical activity, body mass index, and energy intake.

RESULTS

Total fat intake (OR 0.45, fourth quartile, P=0.02), lauric acid (OR 0.44, fourth quartile, P=0.02), palmitic acid (OR 0.58, fourth quartile, P=0.03), and oleic acid (OR 0.42, fourth quartile, P=0.03) were inversely associated with acute myocardial infarction. No significant effects were found for the remaining fatty acids. In the adipose tissue composition data, the adjusted risk estimates of acute myocardial infarction for the highest vs the lowest tertile were 0.16, 0.14, and 0.04 for lauric, oleic, and trans-fatty acids, respectively. A significant direct association was found for palmitic and linoleic acids (adjusted ORs for the highest tertile were 9.02 and 3.63, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Low intake of total fat and lauric acid from dairy products was associated with acute myocardial infarction. The association of polyunsaturated fatty acids with risk of acute myocardial infarction was nonsignificant after adjustment for energy intake and confounders. Recommendations on fatty acid intake should aim for both an upper and lower limit.

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular risk-changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.

Hypertension prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control in mozambique: urban/rural gap during epidemiological transition

The prediction of cardiovascular risk profile trends in low-income countries and timely action to modulate their transitions are among the greatest global health challenges. In 2005 we evaluated a nationally representative sample of the Mozambican population (n=3323; 25 to 64 years old) following the Stepwise Approach to Chronic Disease Risk Factor Surveillance. Prevalence of hypertension (systolic blood pressure > or =140 mm Hg and/or diastolic blood pressure > or =90 mm Hg and/or antihypertensive drug therapy), awareness (having been informed of the hypertensive status by a health professional in the previous year), treatment among the aware (use of antihypertensive medication in the previous fortnight), and control among those treated (blood pressure <140/90 mm Hg) were 33.1% (women: 31.2%; men: 35.7%), 14.8% (women: 18.4%; men: 10.6%), 51.9% (women: 61.1%; men: 33.3%), and 39.9% (women: 42.9%; men: 28.7%), respectively. Urban/rural comparisons are presented as age- and education-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs. Among women, hypertension (OR: 2.0; 95% CI: 1.2 to 3.0) and awareness (OR: 4.3; 95% CI: 1.9 to 9.5) were more frequent in urban areas. No urban/rural differences were observed in men (hypertension: OR: 1.3, 95% CI: 0.9 to 2.0; awareness: OR: 1.5, 95% CI: 0.5 to 4.7). Treatment prevalence was not significantly different across urban/rural settings (women: OR: 1.4, 95% CI: 0.5 to 4.4; men: OR: 0.3, 95% CI: 0.1 to 1.4). Control was less frequent in urban women (OR: 0.2; 95% CI: 0.0 to 1.0) and more frequent in urban men (OR: 78.1; 95% CI: 2.2 to 2716.6). Our results illustrate the changing paradigms of "diseases of affluence" and the dynamic character of epidemiological transition. The urban/rural differences across sexes support a trend toward smaller differences, emphasizing the need for strategies to improve prevention, correct diagnosis, and access to effective treatment.

Diastolic dysfunction in the diabetic continuum: association with insulin resistance, metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes

Background

Diabetes increases the risk of heart failure but the underlying mechanisms leading to diabetic cardiomyopathy are poorly understood. Left ventricle diastolic dysfunction (LVDD) is one of the earliest cardiac changes in these patients. We aimed to evaluate the association between LVDD with insulin resistance, metabolic syndrome (MS) and diabetes, across the diabetic continuum.

Methods

Within a population-based study (EPIPorto), a total of 1063 individuals aged ≥45 years (38% male, 61.2 ± 9.6 years) were evaluated. Diastolic function was assessed by echocardiography, using tissue Doppler analysis (E’ velocity and E/E’ ratio) according to the latest consensus guidelines. Insulin resistance was assessed using the Homeostasis Model Assessment of Insulin Resistance (HOMA-IR) score.

Results

The HOMA-IR score correlated to E’ velocity (ρ = −0.20;p < 0.0001) and E/E’ ratio (ρ = 0.20; p < 0.0001). There was a progressive worsening in E’ velocity (p for trend < 0.001) and in E/E’ ratio across HOMA-IR quartiles (p for trend <0.001). Individuals in the highest HOMA-IR quartile were more likely to have LVDD, even after adjustment for age, sex, blood pressure and body mass index (adjusted OR: 1.82; 95% CI: 1.09-3.03). From individuals with no MS, to patients with MS and no diabetes, to patients with diabetes, there was a progressive decrease in E’ velocity (11.2 ± 3.3 vs 9.7 ± 3.1 vs 9.2 ± 2.8 cm/s; p < 0.0001), higher E/E’ (6.9 ± 2.3 vs 7.8 ± 2.7 vs 9.0 ± 3.6; p < 0.0001) and more diastolic dysfunction (adjusted OR: 1.62; 95% CI: 1.12-2.36 and 1.78; 95% CI: 1.09-2.91, respectively).

Conclusions

HOMA-IR score and metabolic syndrome were independently associated with LVDD. Changes in diastolic function are already present before the onset of diabetes, being mainly associated with the state of insulin resistance.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12933-014-0168-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Prognostic value of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein in heart failure: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Several studies have suggested that high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) is a strong independent predictor of acute myocardial infarction and cardiovascular death. In the specific heart failure (HF) context, a low-grade inflammatory state can contribute to HF progression.

AIMS

To perform a systematic review on the current knowledge about low-grade inflammation, as assessed by hsCRP, in the prediction of HF in general and in high-risk populations as well as its prognostic value in established HF.

METHODS

We used a computerized literature search in the Medline database using the following key words: C-Reactive Protein, Heart Failure, Cardiomyopathy, Cardiac Failure, Prognosis, and Death. Articles were selected if they had measurements of hsCRP in different patient samples and reference to outcomes in terms of morbidity and mortality.

RESULTS

hsCRP is associated with incident HF in general and high-risk populations and provides prognostic information in HF patients. In almost all studies, the association of hsCRP with clinical events was independent of other baseline variables known to influence morbidity and mortality. Very different cutoffs have been proposed in each context across studies.

CONCLUSIONS

The prognostic power of hsCRP, whether we consider incident HF or adverse outcomes in established HF, is consistent in different patient populations.

Preliminary data on the potential usefulness of B-type natriuretic peptide levels in predicting outcome after hospital discharge in patients with heart failure

PURPOSE

Among patients admitted for treatment of heart failure, we aimed to evaluate the value of B-type natriuretic peptide levels in predicting subsequent death or hospital readmission.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

We observed and followed 50 consecutive patients admitted with decompensated heart failure. B-type natriuretic peptide levels were measured using an immunofluorometric assay at admission and at discharge. We followed patients for 6 months and ascertained readmissions for cardiovascular causes and death.

RESULTS

Forty-three patients were discharged. There were 20 events during follow-up (15 readmissions and 5 deaths). Mean (+/- SD) B-type natriuretic peptide levels decreased during the initial hospitalization, from 619 +/- 491 pg/mL to 328 +/- 314 pg/mL (P <0.001) among patients who were event free during follow-up, whereas declines were less marked among patients with hospital readmission or death (from 779 +/- 608 pg/mL to 643 +/- 465 pg/mL, P = 0.08). Among the 7 patients with in-hospital increases in B-type natriuretic peptide level, 6 had events, compared with 14 of the 36 patients whose levels declined (P = 0.04). An increase in B-type natriuretic peptide levels during hospital stay was associated with an increased event rate (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.3; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.3 to 8.8). Patients whose B-type natriuretic peptide level at discharge was above the median (321 pg/mL) had a somewhat higher rate of dying or being readmitted (HR = 2.3; 95% CI: 0.9 to 5.8).

CONCLUSION

These preliminary results in a small number of patients suggest that changes in B-type natriuretic peptide levels, as well as predischarge levels, are related to hospital readmission and death within 6 months.

Viremia and nasal and rectal shedding of rotavirus in gnotobiotic pigs inoculated with Wa human rotavirus

Respiratory symptoms with rotavirus shedding in nasopharyngeal secretions have been reported in children with and without gastrointestinal symptoms (Zheng et al., 1991, J. Med. Virol. 34:29-37). To investigate if attenuated and virulent human rotavirus (HRV) strains cause upper respiratory tract infections or viremia in gnotobiotic pigs, we inoculated them with attenuated or virulent HRV intranasally, intravenously, or orally or via feeding tube (gavage) and assayed virus shedding. After oral or intranasal inoculation with attenuated HRV, the pigs remained asymptomatic, but 79 to 95% shed virus nasally and 5 to 17% shed virus rectally. After inoculation by gavage, no pigs shed virus nasally or rectally, but all pigs seroconverted with antibodies to HRV. No viremia was detected through postinoculation day 10. Controls inoculated intranasally with nonreplicating rotavirus-like particles or mock inoculated did not shed virus. In contrast, 100% of pigs inoculated with virulent HRV (oral, intranasal, or gavage) developed diarrhea, shed virus nasally and rectally, and had viremia. The infectivity of sera from the viremic virulent HRV-inoculated pigs was confirmed by inoculating gnotobiotic pigs orally with pooled HRV-positive serum. Serum-inoculated pigs developed diarrhea and fecal and nasal virus shedding and seroconverted with serum and intestinal HRV antibodies. Pigs inoculated intravenously with serum or intestinal contents from the viremic virulent HRV-inoculated pigs developed diarrhea, virus shedding, and viremia, similar to the orally inoculated pigs. This study provides new evidence that virulent HRV causes transient viremia and upper respiratory tract infection in addition to gastrointestinal infection in gnotobiotic pigs, confirming previous reports of rotavirus antigenemia (Blutt et al., Lancet 362:1445-1449, 2003). Our data also suggest that intestinal infection might be initiated from the basolateral side of the epithelial cells via viremia. Additionally, virus shedding patterns indicate a different pathogenesis for attenuated versus virulent HRV.

Impact of breast cancer treatments on sleep disturbances - A systematic review

Sleep disturbances are highly prevalent in women with breast cancer; side effects of cancer treatment may worsen pre-existing sleep problems and have been pointed to as important determinants of their incidence. Therefore, we aimed to assess the association between different types of breast cancer treatment and sleep disturbances, through a systematic review. Medline (using PubMed), CINAHL Plus with full text, PsycINFO and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (Central) were searched from inception to January 2014. Studies that evaluated samples of women with breast cancer, assessed sleep disturbances with standardized sleep-specific measures, and provided data for different cancer treatments were eligible. A total of 12 studies met the inclusion criteria. Three studies evaluated insomnia, five studies assessed sleep quality, two provide data on general sleep disturbances and two analysed specific sleep parameters. Women submitted to chemotherapy, or radiotherapy, tended to report higher levels of sleep disturbances. More heterogeneous findings were observed regarding the effect of surgical treatment and hormonal therapy. However, a sound assessment of the impact of these treatments was hampered by differences across studies regarding the outcomes assessed, reporting bias and the fact that most studies did not control for the effect of potential confounders. The present review highlights the potential relation between breast cancer treatments and sleep disturbances, particularly of chemotherapy, though more robust evidence is needed for a proper understanding of these associations.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in heart failure. Prevalence, therapeutic and prognostic implications

BACKGROUND

Patients with heart failure (HF) frequently have comorbidities. Frequency, prognostic, and therapeutic implications of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in HF are largely unknown. We aimed to assess the prevalence and prognostic implications of COPD in a sample of stable patients with HF and to determine the frequency of beta-blocker (bB) use and rate of withdrawal according to COPD coexistence.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study including 186 patients followed in an outpatient HF clinic. All patients had left ventricular systolic dysfunction and a spirometry result. Patients were classified according to the GOLD guidelines. Treatment was instituted at the discretion of the attending physicians. Prognosis was compared between groups using Cox proportional hazards regression. The primary end point was death or all-cause hospitalization.

RESULTS

The prevalence of COPD was 39.2% (73/186). No difference was detected between the COPD and non-COPD groups in the rate of bB use (86.3% vs 87.6%, P = .97) and withdrawal (11.1% and 8.1%, P = .71). Mean follow-up was 14.2 +/- 8.8 months. The primary end point occurred in 71 (38.2%) patients--32 in the COPD group and 39 in the remaining (43.8% and 34.5%, respectively; hazard ratio 1.40, 95% CI 0.88-2.24). Severe COPD (GOLD stages III and IV) was associated with an adverse outcome (hazard ratio 2.10, 95% CI 1.05-4.22).

CONCLUSIONS

We observed a high COPD prevalence in stable patients with HF. Severe COPD predicted worse prognosis. Rates of bB use were high and rates of bB withdrawal were low; both were independent of COPD.

An epidemiological study of stroke hospitalizations in Maputo, Mozambique: a high burden of disease in a resource-poor country

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Already a major cause of death and disability in high-income countries, the burden of stroke in sub-Saharan Africa is also expected to be high. However, specific stroke data are scarce from resource-poor countries. We studied the incidence, characteristics, and short-term consequences of hospitalizations for stroke in Maputo, Mozambique.

METHODS

Over 12 months, comprehensive data from all local patients admitted to any hospital in Maputo with a new stroke event were prospectively captured according to the World Health Organization's STEPwise approach to stroke surveillance program. Disability levels (pre- and posthospital discharge) and short-term case-fatality (in-hospital and 28 days) were also studied.

RESULTS

Overall, 651 new stroke events (mean age 59.1 ± 13.2 years and 53% men) were captured by the registry with 601 confirmed by CT scan (83.4%) or necropsy (8.9%). Crude and adjusted (world reference population) annual incidence rates of stroke were 148.7 per 100,000 and 260.1 per 100,000 aged ≥ 25 years, respectively. Of these, 531 (81.6%) represented a first-ever stroke event comprising 254 ischemic (42.0%) and 217 (36.1%) an intracerebral hemorrhage. Before admission, 561 patients (86.2%) had hypertension and 271 (41.6%) had symptoms for > 24 hours. In-hospital and 28-day case-fatality were 33.3% and 49.6% (72.3% for hemorrhagic stroke), respectively. From almost no preadmission disability, 64.4% of 370 survivors at 28 days had moderate-to-severe disability.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of disease associated with stroke is high in Maputo, emphasizing the importance of primary prevention and improvement of the standards of care in a developing country under epidemiological transition.

Sociodemographic determinants of prevalence and incidence of Helicobacter pylori infection in Portuguese adults

BACKGROUND

Understanding the determinants of Helicobacter pylori infection in adults is essential to predict the burden of H. pylori-related diseases. We aimed to estimate the prevalence and incidence of H. pylori infection and to identify its major sociodemographic correlates in an urban population from the North of Portugal.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A representative sample of noninstitutionalized adult inhabitants of Porto (n = 2067) was evaluated by ELISA (IgG) and a subsample (n = 412) was tested by Western Blot to assess infection with CagA-positive strains. Modified Poisson and Poisson regression models were used to estimate crude and sex-, age-, and education-adjusted prevalence ratios (PR) and incidence rate ratios (RR), respectively.

RESULTS

The prevalence of H. pylori infection was 84.2% [95% confidence interval (95%CI): 82.4-86.1]. It increased across age-groups in the more educated subjects, (18-30 years: 72.6%; ≥71 years: 88.1%; p for trend <0.001) and decreased with education in the younger (≤4 schooling years: 100.0%; ≥10 schooling years: 72.6%; p for trend <0.001). Living in a more deprived neighborhood was associated with a higher prevalence of infection, only in the younger (PR = 1.20, 95%CI: 1.03-1.38) and more educated participants (PR = 1.15, 95%CI: 1.03-1.29). Among the infected, the proportion with CagA-positive strains was 61.7% (95%CI: 56.6-66.9). The incidence rate was 3.6/100 person-years (median follow-up: 3 years; 95%CI: 2.1-6.2), lower among the more educated (≥10 vs ≤9: RR = 0.25, 95%CI: 0.06-0.96). The seroreversion rate was 1.0/100 person-years (95%CI: 0.6-1.7).

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of infection among adults is still very high in Portugal, suggesting that stomach cancer rates will remain high over the next few decades.

Caffeine intake is associated with a lower risk of cognitive decline: a cohort study from Portugal

Alzheimer's disease has emerged in recent decades as a major health problem and the role of lifestyles in the modulation of risk has been increasingly recognized. Recent epidemiological studies suggest a protective effect for caffeine intake in dementia. We aimed to quantify the association between caffeine dietary intake and cognitive decline, in a cohort of adults living in Porto. A cohort of 648 subjects aged > or =65 years was recruited between 1999-2003. Follow-up evaluation (2005-2008) was carried out on 58.2% of the eligible participants and 10.9% were deceased. Caffeine exposure in the year preceding baseline evaluation was assessed with a validated food frequency questionnaire. Cognitive evaluation consisted of baseline and follow-up Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Cognitive decline was defined by a decrease > or =2 points in the MMSE score between evaluations. Relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) estimates adjusted for age, education, smoking, alcohol drinking, body mass index, hypertension, and diabetes were computed using Poisson regression. Caffeine intake (> 62 mg/day [3rd third] vs. < 22 mg/day [1st third]) was associated with a lower risk of cognitive decline in women (RR=0.49, 95%CI 0.24-0.97), but not significantly in men (RR=0.65, 95%CI 0.27-1.54). Our study confirms the negative association between caffeine and cognitive decline in women.

Lower serum magnesium is associated with cardiovascular risk factors and mortality in haemodialysis patients

BACKGROUND

Hypomagnesaemia is a cardiovascular (CV) risk factor in the general population. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between pre-dialysis magnesium (Mg) and CV risk markers, [including pulse pressure (PP), left ventricular mass index (LVMI) and vascular calcifications (VC)], and mortality in haemodialysis (HD) patients.

METHODS

We performed a 48-month prospective study in 206 patients under pre-dilution haemodiafiltration with a dialysate Mg concentration of 1 mmol/l.

RESULTS

Lower Mg concentrations were predictors of an increased PP (≥65 mm Hg) (p = 0.002) and LVMI (≥140 g/m(2)) (p = 0.03) and of a higher VC score (≥3) (p = 0.01). Patients with Mg <1.15 mmol/l had a lower survival at the end of the study (p = 0.01). Serum Mg <1.15 mmol/l was an independent predictor of all-cause (p = 0.01) and CV mortality (p = 0.02) when adjusted for multiple CV risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower Mg levels seem to be associated with increased CV risk markers, like PP, LVMI and VC, and with higher mortality in HD patients.

Metformin and Breast Cancer: Molecular Targets

Metformin has been the first-line drug for the treatment of type II diabetes mellitus for decades, being presently the most widely prescribed antihyperglycemic drug. Retrospective studies associate the use of metformin with a reduction in cancer incidence and cancer-related death. However, despite extensive research about the molecular effects of metformin in cancer cells, its mode of action remains controversial. The major molecular targets of metformin include complex I of the mitochondrial electron transport chain, adenosine monophosphate (AMP)-activated protein kinase (AMPK), and mechanistic target of rapamycin complex 1 (mTORC1), but AMPK-independent effects of metformin have also been described. Breast cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer-related morbidity and mortality among women worldwide. Several studies have reinforced a link between breast cancer risk and diabetes. Moreover, metformin significantly reduces breast cancer risk, compared to patients who are not using metformin and is independent of diabetes status. In this review, we summarize the current molecular evidence to elucidate metformin's mode of action against breast cancer cells.

Prognostic information provided by serial measurements of brain natriuretic peptide in heart failure

BACKGROUND

Brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels predict prognosis in heart failure patients. We aimed to evaluate if serial measurements of BNP can give additional prognostic information.

METHODS

Eighty-four patients with systolic dysfunction had two measurements of BNP with an interval of 8 to 12 months and were followed in order to register the occurrence of death. The study was observational and prospectively designed. During follow-up, patients were treated according to state of the art. Physicians were kept blind to BNP levels.

RESULTS

The median follow-up was 1190 days. The median initial BNP level was 260.4 pg/ml and decreased to 123 pg/ml in the second measurement (P=0.001). The decrease in BNP was significantly associated with ACE-i dosage and with the use of a beta-blocker. All-cause mortality was 20.2%. Patients whose initial BNP level was above the median had a significantly higher hazard of dying (HR 2.96, 95% CI 1.06-8.26). The same was observed for those whose BNP increased between the first and the second measurement (HR 2.64, 95% CI 1.00-7.00). In multivariable analysis, baseline BNP above the median and increasing BNP were associated with shorter survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher baseline BNP and the increasing levels during follow-up were independently associated with mortality. The decrease in BNP levels was proportional to ACE-i dosage and larger among patients on beta-blockers. These results confirm the prognostic information provided by BNP determination and suggest that serial measurements give additional prognostic information.

Clinical insights gained by refining the 2016 WHO classification of diffuse gliomas with: EGFR amplification, TERT mutations, PTEN deletion and MGMT methylation

BACKGROUND

Significant advances in the molecular profiling of gliomas, led the 2016 World Health Organization (WHO) Classification to include, for the first-time, molecular biomarkers in glioma diagnosis: IDH mutations and 1p/19q codeletion. Here, we evaluated the effect of this new classification in the stratification of gliomas previously diagnosed according to 2007 WHO classification. Then, we also analyzed the impact of TERT promoter mutations, PTEN deletion, EGFR amplification and MGMT promoter methylation in diagnosis, prognosis and response to therapy in glioma molecular subgroup.

METHODS

A cohort of 444 adult gliomas was analyzed and reclassified according to the 2016 WHO. Mutational analysis of IDH1 and TERT promoter mutations was performed by Sanger sequencing. Statistical analysis was done using SPSS Statistics 21.0.

RESULTS

The reclassification of this cohort using 2016 WHO criteria led to a decrease of the number of oligodendrogliomas (from 82 to 49) and an increase of astrocytomas (from 49 to 98), while glioblastomas (GBM) remained the same (n = 256). GBM was the most common diagnosis (57.7%), of which 55.2% were IDH-wildtype. 1p/19q codeleted gliomas were the subgroup associated with longer median overall survival (198 months), while GBM IDH-wildtype had the worst outcome (10 months). Interestingly, PTEN deletion had poor prognostic value in astrocytomas IDH-wildtype (p = 0.015), while in GBM IDH-wildtype was associated with better overall survival (p = 0.042) as well as MGMT promoter methylation (p = 0.009). EGFR amplification and TERT mutations had no impact in prognosis. Notably, EGFR amplification predicted a better response to radiotherapy (p = 0.011) and MGMT methylation to chemo-radiotherapy (p = 0.003).

CONCLUSION

In this study we observed that the 2016 WHO classification improved the accuracy of diagnosis and prognosis of diffuse gliomas, although the available biomarkers are not enough. Therefore, we suggest MGMT promoter methylation should be added to glioma classification. Moreover, we found two genetic/clinical correlations that must be evaluated to understand their impact in the clinical setting: i) how is PTEN deletion a favorable prognostic factor in GBM IDH wildtype and an unfavorable prognostic factor in astrocytoma IDH wildtype and ii) how EGFR amplification is an independent and strong factor of response to radiotherapy.