Repurposed Antiviral Drugs for Covid-19 - Interim WHO Solidarity Trial Results

BACKGROUND

World Health Organization expert groups recommended mortality trials of four repurposed antiviral drugs - remdesivir, hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir, and interferon beta-1a - in patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19).

METHODS

We randomly assigned inpatients with Covid-19 equally between one of the trial drug regimens that was locally available and open control (up to five options, four active and the local standard of care). The intention-to-treat primary analyses examined in-hospital mortality in the four pairwise comparisons of each trial drug and its control (drug available but patient assigned to the same care without that drug). Rate ratios for death were calculated with stratification according to age and status regarding mechanical ventilation at trial entry.

RESULTS

At 405 hospitals in 30 countries, 11,330 adults underwent randomization; 2750 were assigned to receive remdesivir, 954 to hydroxychloroquine, 1411 to lopinavir (without interferon), 2063 to interferon (including 651 to interferon plus lopinavir), and 4088 to no trial drug. Adherence was 94 to 96% midway through treatment, with 2 to 6% crossover. In total, 1253 deaths were reported (median day of death, day 8; interquartile range, 4 to 14). The Kaplan-Meier 28-day mortality was 11.8% (39.0% if the patient was already receiving ventilation at randomization and 9.5% otherwise). Death occurred in 301 of 2743 patients receiving remdesivir and in 303 of 2708 receiving its control (rate ratio, 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.81 to 1.11; P = 0.50), in 104 of 947 patients receiving hydroxychloroquine and in 84 of 906 receiving its control (rate ratio, 1.19; 95% CI, 0.89 to 1.59; P = 0.23), in 148 of 1399 patients receiving lopinavir and in 146 of 1372 receiving its control (rate ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.79 to 1.25; P = 0.97), and in 243 of 2050 patients receiving interferon and in 216 of 2050 receiving its control (rate ratio, 1.16; 95% CI, 0.96 to 1.39; P = 0.11). No drug definitely reduced mortality, overall or in any subgroup, or reduced initiation of ventilation or hospitalization duration.

CONCLUSIONS

These remdesivir, hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir, and interferon regimens had little or no effect on hospitalized patients with Covid-19, as indicated by overall mortality, initiation of ventilation, and duration of hospital stay. (Funded by the World Health Organization; ISRCTN Registry number, ISRCTN83971151; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04315948.).

SARS-CoV-2 Variants and Vaccines

Viral variants of concern may emerge with dangerous resistance to the immunity generated by the current vaccines to prevent coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Moreover, if some variants of concern have increased transmissibility or virulence, the importance of efficient public health measures and vaccination programs will increase. The global response must be both timely and science based.

Repurposed Antiviral Drugs for Covid-19 - Interim WHO Solidarity Trial Results

BACKGROUND

World Health Organization expert groups recommended mortality trials of four repurposed antiviral drugs - remdesivir, hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir, and interferon beta-1a - in patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19).

METHODS

We randomly assigned inpatients with Covid-19 equally between one of the trial drug regimens that was locally available and open control (up to five options, four active and the local standard of care). The intention-to-treat primary analyses examined in-hospital mortality in the four pairwise comparisons of each trial drug and its control (drug available but patient assigned to the same care without that drug). Rate ratios for death were calculated with stratification according to age and status regarding mechanical ventilation at trial entry.

RESULTS

At 405 hospitals in 30 countries, 11,330 adults underwent randomization; 2750 were assigned to receive remdesivir, 954 to hydroxychloroquine, 1411 to lopinavir (without interferon), 2063 to interferon (including 651 to interferon plus lopinavir), and 4088 to no trial drug. Adherence was 94 to 96% midway through treatment, with 2 to 6% crossover. In total, 1253 deaths were reported (median day of death, day 8; interquartile range, 4 to 14). The Kaplan-Meier 28-day mortality was 11.8% (39.0% if the patient was already receiving ventilation at randomization and 9.5% otherwise). Death occurred in 301 of 2743 patients receiving remdesivir and in 303 of 2708 receiving its control (rate ratio, 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.81 to 1.11; P = 0.50), in 104 of 947 patients receiving hydroxychloroquine and in 84 of 906 receiving its control (rate ratio, 1.19; 95% CI, 0.89 to 1.59; P = 0.23), in 148 of 1399 patients receiving lopinavir and in 146 of 1372 receiving its control (rate ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.79 to 1.25; P = 0.97), and in 243 of 2050 patients receiving interferon and in 216 of 2050 receiving its control (rate ratio, 1.16; 95% CI, 0.96 to 1.39; P = 0.11). No drug definitely reduced mortality, overall or in any subgroup, or reduced initiation of ventilation or hospitalization duration.

CONCLUSIONS

These remdesivir, hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir, and interferon regimens had little or no effect on hospitalized patients with Covid-19, as indicated by overall mortality, initiation of ventilation, and duration of hospital stay. (Funded by the World Health Organization; ISRCTN Registry number, ISRCTN83971151; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04315948.).

Measles elimination: progress and challenges

The accelerating progress in reducing measles incidence and mortality in many parts of the world has led to calls for its global eradication during the next 10-15 years. Three regions have established goals of elimination of indigenous transmission of measles. The strategy used in the Americas of a mass 'catchup' campaign of children 9 months to 15 years of age, high coverage through routine vaccination of infants, intensive surveillance and follow-up campaigns to prevent excessive build-up of susceptibles has had great success in reducing measles transmission close to zero. However, while these developments are impressive, much remains to be done to reduce measles-associated mortality in western and central Africa, where less than half of children are currently receiving measles vaccine and half a million children die from measles each year. The obstacles to global measles eradication are perceived to be predominantly political and financial. There are also technical questions, however. These include the refinement of measles elimination strategies in the light of recent outbreaks in the Americas; the implications of the HIV epidemic for measles elimination, issues around injection safety, and concerns about the possibility that secondary vaccine failures will contribute in sustaining transmission in highly vaccinated populations. The global priorities are to improve measles control in low income countries, increase awareness among industrialized countries of the importance of measles, and conduct studies to answer the technical questions about measles elimination strategies.

Global measles elimination efforts: the significance of measles elimination in the United States

Lessons learned from the successful end of endemic measles virus transmission (i.e., elimination) in the United States include the critical roles of strong political commitment, a regionwide initiative, adequate funding, and a broad coalition of partners. Implications of measles elimination in the United States for global measles control and regional elimination efforts include demonstration of the high vaccination coverage and, in turn, population immunity needed for elimination; the importance of accurate monitoring of vaccination coverage at local, state, and national levels; a vaccination strategy that includes at least 2 opportunities for measles immunization; and the essential role of integrated epidemiological and laboratory surveillance. The United States, with a population of 288 million, is, to our knowledge, the largest country to have ended endemic measles transmission. This experience provides evidence that sustained interruption of transmission can be achieved in large geographic areas, suggesting the feasibility of global eradication of measles.

Experience in global measles control, 1990-2001

Worldwide during the 1980s remarkable progress was made in controlling measles through increasing routine measles vaccination to nearly 80%. In 2000, an estimated 777,000 measles deaths occurred, of which 452,000 were in the African Region of the World Health Organization (WHO). In 2001, WHO and the United Nations Children's Fund published a 5-year strategic plan to reduce measles mortality by half by 2005. Strategies include providing a second opportunity for measles immunization to all children through nationwide supplementary immunization activities, increasing routine vaccination coverage, and improving surveillance with laboratory confirmation of suspected measles cases. In 2000, over 100 million children received a dose of measles vaccine through supplementary immunization activities, a number projected to increase during 2002-2005. Current systems for monitoring measles vaccination coverage and disease burden must be improved to accurately assess progress toward measles control goals.

COVID-19 vaccine trials: The use of active controls and non-inferiority studies

Background:

Recently emerging results from a few placebo-controlled randomized trials of COVID-19 vaccines revealed estimates of 62%–95% relative reductions in risk of virologically confirmed symptomatic COVID-19 disease, over approximately 2-month average follow-up period. Additional safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines are needed in a timely manner to adequately address the pandemic on an international scale. Such safe and effective vaccines would be especially appealing for international deployment if they also have favorable stability, supply, and potential for implementation in mass vaccination campaigns. Randomized trials provide particularly reliable insights about vaccine efficacy and safety. While enhanced efficiency and interpretability can be obtained from placebo-controlled trials, in settings where their conduct is no longer possible, randomized non-inferiority trials may enable obtaining reliable evaluations of experimental vaccines through direct comparison with active comparator vaccines established to have worthwhile efficacy.

Methods:

The usual objective of non-inferiority trials is to reliably assess whether the efficacy of an experimental vaccine is not unacceptably worse than that of an active control vaccine previously established to be effective, likely in a placebo-controlled trial. This is formally achieved by ruling out a non-inferiority margin identified to be the minimum threshold for what would constitute an unacceptable loss of efficacy. This article not only investigates non-inferiority margins, denoted by δ, that address the usual objective of determining whether the experimental vaccine is “at least similarly effective to” the active comparator vaccine in the non-inferiority trial, but also develops non-inferiority margins, denoted by δ_o, intended to address the worldwide need for multiple safe and effective vaccines by satisfying the less stringent requirement that the experimental vaccine be “at least similarly effective to” an active comparator vaccine having efficacy that satisfies the widely accepted World Health Organization–Food and Drug Administration criteria for “worthwhile” vaccine efficacy.

Results:

Using the margin δ enables non-inferiority trials to reliably evaluate experimental vaccines that truly are similarly effective to an active comparator vaccine having any level of “worthwhile” efficacy. When active comparator vaccines have efficacy in the range of 50%–70%, non-inferiority trials designed to use the margin δ_o have appealing properties, especially for experimental vaccines having true efficacy of approximately 60%.

Conclusion:

Non-inferiority trials using the proposed margins may enable reliable randomized evaluations of efficacy and safety of experimental COVID-19 vaccines. Such trials often require approximately two- to three-fold the person-years follow-up than a placebo-controlled trial. This could be achieved, without substantive increases in sample size, by increasing the average duration of follow-up from 2 months to approximately 4–6 months, assuming efficacy of the active comparator vaccine has been reliably evaluated over that longer duration.

Humoral and cellular immune response induced by rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP vaccine among frontline workers during the 2013-2016 West Africa Ebola outbreak in Guinea

BACKGROUND

As part of a Phase III trial with the Ebola vaccine rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP in Guinea, we invited frontline workers (FLWs) to participate in a sub-study to provide additional information on the immunogenicity of the vaccine.

METHODS

We conducted an open-label, non-randomized, single-arm immunogenicity evaluation of one dose of rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP among healthy FLWs in Guinea. FLWs who refused vaccination were offered to participate as a control group. We followed participants for 84 days with a subset followed-up for 180 days. The primary endpoint was immune response, as measured by ELISA for ZEBOV-glycoprotein-specific antibodies (ELISA-GP) at 28 days. We also conducted neutralization, whole virion ELISA and enzyme-linked immunospot (ELISPOT) assay for cellular response.

RESULTS

A total of 1172 participants received one dose of vaccine and were followed-up for 84 days, among them 114 participants were followed-up for 180 days. Additionally, 99 participants were included in the control group and followed up for 180 days. Overall, 86.4% (95% CI 84.1-88.4) of vaccinated participants seroresponded at 28 days post-vaccination (ELISA- GP) with 65% of these seroresponding at 14 days post-vaccination. Among those who seroresponded at 28 days, 90.7% (95% CI 82.0-95.4) were still seropositive at 180 days. The proportion of seropositivity in the unvaccinated group was 0.0% (95% CI 0.0-3.8) at 28 days and 5.4% (95% CI 2.1-13.1) at 180 days post-vaccination. We found weak correlation between ELISA-GP and neutralization at baseline but significant pairwise correlation at 28 days post-vaccination. Among samples analysed for cellular response, only 1 (2.2%) exhibited responses towards the Zaire Ebola glycoprotein (Ebola GP ≥ 10) at baseline, 10 (13.5%) at day 28 post-vaccination and 27 (48.2%) at Day 180.

CONCLUSIONS

We found one dose of rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP to be highly immunogenic at 28- and 180-days post vaccination among frontline workers in Guinea. We also found a cellular response that increased with time.

Determining measles-containing vaccine demand and supply: an imperative to support measles mortality reduction efforts

Measles remains a major cause of mortality with an estimated 745,000 deaths in 2001. The timely, sustained, and uninterrupted supply of affordable vaccines is critical for global efforts to reduce measles mortality. The measles vaccine supply needs to be considered in the context of vaccine security. In 2000, the World Health Organization (WHO) and United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) issued a number of new recommendations for measles control that resulted in a two-fold increase in the number of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) doses administered between 2000 and 2002. Any additional increments in mass campaigns must be duly planned and have time lines so that vaccine production capacities are increased to optimal levels. The cornerstone of vaccine security efforts remains at the country level. WHO and UNICEF, with major partners, will review progress on measles mortality reduction and assess the feasibility of global measles eradication. Strong collaboration by all key stakeholders will be invaluable.

COVID-19 vaccine trials: The potential for "hybrid" analyses

BACKGROUND

Although several COVID-19 vaccines have been found to be effective in rigorous evaluation and have emerging availability in parts of the world, their supply will be inadequate to meet international needs for a considerable period of time. There also will be continued interest in vaccines that are more effective or have improved scalability to facilitate mass vaccination campaigns. Ongoing clinical testing of new vaccines also will be needed as variant strains continue to emerge that may elude some aspects of immunity induced by current vaccines. Randomized clinical trials meaningfully enhance the efficiency and reliability of such clinical testing. In clinical settings with limited or no access to known effective vaccines, placebo-controlled randomized trials of new vaccines remain a preferred approach to maximize the reliability, efficiency and interpretability of results. When emerging availability of licensed vaccines makes it no longer possible to use a placebo control, randomized active comparator non-inferiority trials may enable reliable insights.

METHODS

In this article, "hybrid" methods are proposed to address settings where, during the conduct of a placebo-controlled trial, a judgment is made to replace the placebo arm by a licensed COVID-19 vaccine due to emerging availability of effective vaccines in regions participating in that trial. These hybrid methods are based on proposed statistics that aggregate evidence to formally test as well as to estimate the efficacy of the experimental vaccine, by combining placebo-controlled data during the first period of trial conduct with active-controlled data during the second period.

RESULTS

Application of the proposed methods is illustrated in two important scenarios where the active control vaccine would become available in regions engaging in the experimental vaccine's placebo-controlled trial: in the first, the active comparator's vaccine efficacy would have been established to be 50%-70% for the 4- to 6-month duration of follow-up of its placebo-controlled trial; in the second, the active comparator's vaccine efficacy would have been established to be 90%-95% during that duration. These two scenarios approximate what has been seen with adenovirus vaccines or mRNA vaccines, respectively, assuming the early estimates of vaccine efficacy for those vaccines would hold over longer-term follow-up.

CONCLUSION

The proposed hybrid methods could readily play an important role in the near future in the design, conduct and analysis of randomized clinical trials performed to address the need for multiple additional vaccines reliably established to be safe and have worthwhile efficacy in reducing the risk of symptomatic disease from SARS-CoV-2 infections.