Long-term water quality assessments under changing land use in a large semi-arid catchment in South Africa

Increasing nutrient loads from land use and land cover (LULC) change degrade water quality through eutrophication of aquatic ecosystems globally. The Vaal River Catchment in South Africa is an agriculturally and economically important area where eutrophication has been a problem for decades. Effective mitigation strategies of eutrophication in this region require an understanding of the relationship between LULC change and water quality. This study assessed the long-term impacts of LULC changes on nitrate (NO₃-N) and orthophosphate (PO₄-P) pollution in the lower Vaal River Catchment between 1980 and 2018. Multi-year LULC was mapped from Landsat imagery and changes were determined. Long-term trends in NO₃-N and PO₄-P loads and concentrations in river water samples were analysed, while multi-year LULC data were ingested into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate the impacts of LULC changes in NO₃-N and PO₄-P loads. Main LULC changes included an increase in the irrigated area by 262% and in built-up area by 33%. This occurred at the expense of cultivated dryland fields and rangelands. In situ data analysis showed that at the catchment inlet, PO₄-P concentration and loads significantly increased, while NO₃-N concentration and loads decreased between 1980 and 2018. At the catchment outlet, only PO₄-P loads increased, while NO₃-N loads and concentrations remained the same. SWAT simulations at the Hydrologic Response Unit scale showed that irrigated land was the largest contributor to NO₃-N leaching per ha. Aggregation of nutrient loads by LULC type showed increased nutrient loads from irrigated and built-up areas over time, while loads from dryland areas decreased. At catchment scale, dryland remained an important contributor of the annual nutrient loads total because of its large area. In future, research efforts should focus on crop management practices to reduce nutrient loads.

Nutrient Deficiencies Are Key Constraints to Grain Legume Productivity on “Non-responsive” Soils in Sub-Saharan Africa

Leguminous plants are known to require phosphorus fertilizers and inoculation with nitrogen fixing rhizobia for optimum yield but other nutrients may also be lacking. In this study, the most limiting nutrients for legume growth were determined in soils where the crops had not responded to P and rhizobial inoculation in field trials, using the double pot technique. Soils were collected from 17 farmers' fields in West Kenya, Northern Nigeria, Eastern and Southern Rwanda, South-west and North-west Sierra Leone. Plant growth and mean biomass were measured on soils to which a full nutrient solution, containing phosphorus (P), potassium (K), magnesium (Mg), sulfur (S) and micronutrients (MN) were added, and which were compared to a control (no nutrient added), and individual omissions of each nutrient. The relationship between soil properties and nutrient deficiencies was explored. Nutrient limitations were found to differ between soils, both within and across countries. Generally, each soil was potentially deficient in at least one nutrient, with K, P, Mg, MN and S emerging as most limiting in 88, 65, 59, 18, and 12% of tested soils, respectively. While K was the most limiting nutrient in soils from Kenya and Rwanda, P was most limiting in soils from Nigeria. P and K were equally limiting in soils from Sierra Leone. Mg was found limiting in two soils from Kenya and three soils from Rwanda and one soil each in Nigeria and Sierra Leone. Micronutrients were found to be limiting in one soil from Nigeria and one soil from Rwanda. Estimates of nutrient deficiency using growth and mean biomass were found to be correlated with each other although the latter proved to be a more sensitive measure of deficiency. With few exceptions, the relation between soil parameters and nutrient deficiencies was weak and there were no significant relations between deficiency of specific nutrients and the soil content of these elements. Although our results cannot be translated directly to the field, they confirm that individual and multiple nutrient deficiencies were common in these “non-responsive” soils and may have contributed to reported low yields. This highlights the need for balanced nutrition in legume production in SSA.

Maize-grain legume intercropping for enhanced resource use efficiency and crop productivity in the Guinea savanna of northern Ghana

Smallholder farmers in the Guinea savanna practise cereal-legume intercropping to mitigate risks of crop failure in mono-cropping. The productivity of cereal-legume intercrops could be influenced by the spatial arrangement of the intercrops and the soil fertility status. Knowledge on the effect of soil fertility status on intercrop productivity is generally lacking in the Guinea savanna despite the wide variability in soil fertility status in farmers' fields, and the productivity of within-row spatial arrangement of intercrops relative to the distinct-row systems under on-farm conditions has not been studied in the region. We studied effects of maize-legume spatial intercropping patterns and soil fertility status on resource use efficiency, crop productivity and economic profitability under on-farm conditions in the Guinea savanna. Treatments consisted of maize-legume intercropped within-row, 1 row of maize alternated with one row of legume, 2 rows of maize alternated with 2 rows of legume, a sole maize crop and a sole legume crop. These were assessed in the southern Guinea savanna (SGS) and the northern Guinea savanna (NGS) of northern Ghana for two seasons using three fields differing in soil fertility in each agro-ecological zone. Each treatment received 25 kg P and 30 kg K ha^-1 at sowing, while maize received 25 kg (intercrop) or 50 kg (sole) N ha^-1 at 3 and 6 weeks after sowing. The experiment was conducted in a randomised complete block design with each block of treatments replicated four times per fertility level at each site. Better soil conditions and rainfall in the SGS resulted in 48, 38 and 9% more maize, soybean and groundnut grain yield, respectively produced than in the NGS, while 11% more cowpea grain yield was produced in the NGS. Sole crops of maize and legumes produced significantly more grain yield per unit area than the respective intercrops of maize and legumes. Land equivalent ratios (LERs) of all intercrop patterns were greater than unity indicating more efficient and productive use of environmental resources by intercrops. Sole legumes intercepted more radiation than sole maize, while the interception by intercrops was in between that of sole legumes and sole maize. The intercrop however converted the intercepted radiation more efficiently into grain yield than the sole crops. Economic returns were greater for intercrops than for either sole crop. The within-row intercrop pattern was the most productive and lucrative system. Larger grain yields in the SGS and in fertile fields led to greater economic returns. However, intercropping systems in poorly fertile fields and in the NGS recorded greater LERs (1.16-1.81) compared with fertile fields (1.07-1.54) and with the SGS. This suggests that intercropping is more beneficial in less fertile fields and in more marginal environments such as the NGS. Cowpea and groundnut performed better than soybean when intercropped with maize, though the larger absolute grain yields of soybean resulted in larger net benefits.

A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels

A potato crop multimodel assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low-input (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi)- and high-input (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) management sites. Two calibration stages were explored, partial (P1), where experimental dry matter data were not provided, and full (P2). The median model ensemble response outperformed any single model in terms of replicating observed yield across all locations. Uncertainty in simulated yield decreased from 38% to 20% between P1 and P2. Model uncertainty increased with interannual variability, and predictions for all agronomic variables were significantly different from one model to another (P < 0.001). Uncertainty averaged 15% higher for low- vs. high-input sites, with larger differences observed for evapotranspiration (ET), nitrogen uptake, and water use efficiency as compared to dry matter. A minimum of five partial, or three full, calibrated models was required for an ensemble approach to keep variability below that of common field variation. Model variation was not influenced by change in carbon dioxide (C), but increased as much as 41% and 23% for yield and ET, respectively, as temperature (T) or rainfall (W) moved away from historical levels. Increases in T accounted for the highest amount of uncertainty, suggesting that methods and parameters for T sensitivity represent a considerable unknown among models. Using median model ensemble values, yield increased on average 6% per 100-ppm C, declined 4.6% per °C, and declined 2% for every 10% decrease in rainfall (for nonirrigated sites). Differences in predictions due to model representation of light utilization were significant (P < 0.01). These are the first reported results quantifying uncertainty for tuber/root crops and suggest modeling assessments of climate change impact on potato may be improved using an ensemble approach.

Arm hand skilled performance in persons with a cervical spinal cord injury--long-term follow-up

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE

To assess development of arm hand skilled performance (AHSP) during and after in-patient rehabilitation in persons with cervical spinal cord injury (CSCI) and to determine factors that influence the outcome.

SETTING

Eight rehabilitation centres in the Netherlands with specialised spinal cord injury departments.

METHODS

AHSP was assessed using the Van Lieshout test (VLT) in persons admitted with recent CSCI. Assessment was carried out at the beginning (t1), after 3 months (t2), at the end (t3) of in-patient rehabilitation, and 1 and 5 years thereafter (t4, t5). Multilevel regression analysis was performed to determine development of AHSP and associations between AHSP and age, gender, motor completeness, lesion level (high or low CSCI), motor scores of upper extremity (MSUE), and pain in the tested arm.

RESULTS

Fifty-five participants were included with mean age 38 years (range 18–64). There were 73% male, 80% had high CSCI (C3–C6) and 69% had motor complete lesion. Scores of VLT improved significantly during in-patient rehabilitation (mean: t1=25; t3=33) (P=0.005), scores remained unchanged at 1 year (t4=32) and 5 years (t5=32) (P=0.903) after in-patient rehabilitation. Motor completeness, MSUE and pain were significantly related to the VLT score (P<0.001, P<0.001, P=0.015, respectively). Age, gender and lesion level had no significant relationship.

CONCLUSION

AHSP improved during in-patient rehabilitation. It was then stable during the next 5 years after discharge. Persons with an incomplete lesion, high MSUE and no pain in the tested arm perform best on the VLT.

A discrete event modelling framework for simulation of long-term outcomes of sequential treatment strategies for ankylosing spondylitis

OBJECTIVE

To develop a modelling framework which can simulate long-term quality of life, societal costs and cost-effectiveness as affected by sequential drug treatment strategies for ankylosing spondylitis (AS).

METHODS

Discrete event simulation paradigm was selected for model development. Drug efficacy was modelled as changes in disease activity (Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI)) and functional status (Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index (BASFI)), which were linked to costs and health utility using statistical models fitted based on an observational AS cohort. Published clinical data were used to estimate drug efficacy and time to events. Two strategies were compared: (1) five available non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (strategy 1) and (2) same as strategy 1 plus two tumour necrosis factor α inhibitors (strategy 2). 13,000 patients were followed up individually until death. For probability sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo simulations were performed with 1000 sets of parameters sampled from the appropriate probability distributions.

RESULTS

The models successfully generated valid data on treatments, BASDAI, BASFI, utility, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs at time points with intervals of 1-3 months during the simulation length of 70 years. Incremental cost per QALY gained in strategy 2 compared with strategy 1 was €35,186. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of €80,000, it was 99.9% certain that strategy 2 was cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

The modelling framework provides great flexibility to implement complex algorithms representing treatment selection, disease progression and changes in costs and utilities over time of patients with AS. Results obtained from the simulation are plausible.

Bacterial communities associated with Chenopodium album and Stellaria media seeds from arable soils

The bacterial community compositions in Chenopodium album and Stellaria media seeds recovered from soil (soil weed seedbank), from bulk soil, and from seeds harvested from plants grown in the same soils were compared. It was hypothesized that bacterial communities in soil weed seedbanks are distinct from the ones present in bulk soils. For that purpose, bacterial polymerase chain reaction denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (PCR-DGGE) fingerprints, made from DNA extracts of different soils and seed fractions, were analyzed by principal component analysis. Bacterial fingerprints from C. album and S. media seeds differed from each other and from soil. Further, it revealed that bacterial fingerprints from soil-recovered and plant-harvested seeds from the same species clustered together. Hence, it was concluded that microbial communities associated with seeds in soil mostly originated from the mother plant and not from soil. In addition, the results indicated that the presence of a weed seedbank in arable soils can increase soil microbial diversity. Thus, a change in species composition or size of the soil weed seedbank, for instance, as a result of a change in crop management, could affect soil microbial diversity. The consequence of increased diversity is yet unknown, but by virtue of identification of dominant bands in PCR-DGGE fingerprints as Lysobacter oryzae (among four other species), it became clear that bacteria potentially antagonizing phytopathogens dominate in C. album seeds in soil. The role of these potential antagonists on weed and crop plant growth was discussed.

HER-family gene amplification and expression in resected pancreatic cancer

AIMS

Despite surgical resection, pancreatic cancer carries a poor prognosis. In search for new molecular therapeutic targets, we investigated the expression of the HER-family and gene amplification of HER-2 in pancreatic adenocarcinomas of different stages.

METHODS

Tissue of 45 resected patients was analyzed for all HER-family 1-4 expression by immunohistochemistry and HER-2 gene amplification was assessed by multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification and chromogenic in situ hybridization. The type of surgery, location, stage and grade of the tumor, as well as involvement of the resection margins were correlated with HER-expressions and univariate and multivariate survival analysis performed.

RESULTS

Normal pancreatic tissue lacked HER1-2 expression, but did show HER3-4 expression. In cancers, no membranous overexpression of HER-1 and HER-2 was seen nor gene amplification of HER-2 found. HER-3, HER-4 is physiologically expressed in the normal pancreas and loss of cytoplasmic HER-3 and HER-4 expression was seen in 33/45 (73%) and 8/45 (18%) of pancreatic cancers. Cytoplasmic HER-3 expression decreased from early to late stage (p=0.05). HER-4 expression was not associated with survival, stage or tumor grade. There were no statistically significant differences in HER1-4 expression between the papilla of Vater (n=13) and non-papilla cancers (n=32). Multivariate survival analysis showed only stage to be of independent prognostic value (p=0.015).

CONCLUSIONS

HER-1 and HER-2 are not overexpressed in pancreatic cancers. HER-3 and HER-4 are expressed in the normal pancreas but expression is lost in pancreatic cancer. HER-targeted therapy in pancreatic cancer is not supported by HER-expression of the tumor.

Characterization of the CD30L binding domain on the human CD30 molecule using anti-CD30 antibodies

CD30 and its counter-receptor CD30 ligand (CD30L) are members of the TNF-receptor/TNFalpha superfamily and function to regulate lymphocyte survival and differentiation. Several monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) have been developed against CD30 and, based on mutual inhibition assays, are grouped into three nonoverlapping serologic clusters. However, the relationship between the epitopes recognized by the antibodies comprising each cluster and the binding domain for CD30L is not known. Using a soluble CD30L/CD8alpha chimeric protein, we assessed the ability of anti-CD30 MAb to inhibit the binding of CD30L to CD30 expressed by the CD30+ Karpas 299 cell line. CD30L binding by CD30 is blocked by MAb that recognize epitopes belonging to cluster Group A (like Ber-H2, Ber-H8, and HRS-4) as well as cluster Group C (like HeFi-1 and M44). Cluster Group B antibodies, including M67 and Ki-1, do not affect CD30L binding to CD30. The pattern of CD30L binding inhibition shows only limited correspondence to the functional capacity of some anti-CD30 MAb to trigger CD30 signaling. Finally, we demonstrate that the anti-CD30L MAb M81 also completely inhibits CD30/CD30L interaction. This information is useful for applying these MAbs in functional studies to further investigate the CD30/CD30L system and for designing assays for soluble CD30L.