Midwifery learning and forecasting: Predicting content demand with user-generated logs

Every day, 800 women and 6700 newborns die from complications related to pregnancy or childbirth. A well-trained midwife can prevent most of these maternal and newborn deaths. Data science models together with logs generated by users of online learning applications for midwives can help improve their learning competencies. In this work, we evaluate various forecasting methods to determine the future interest of users for the different types of content available in the Safe Delivery App, a digital training tool for skilled birth attendants, broken down by profession and region. This first attempt at health content demand forecasting for midwifery learning shows that DeepAR can accurately anticipate content demand in operational settings, and could therefore be used to offer users personalized content and to provide an adaptive learning journey.

Lack of p62 Impairs Glycogen Aggregation and Exacerbates Pathology in a Mouse Model of Myoclonic Epilepsy of Lafora

Lafora disease (LD) is a fatal childhood-onset dementia characterized by the extensive accumulation of glycogen aggregates—the so-called Lafora Bodies (LBs)—in several organs. The accumulation of LBs in the brain underlies the neurological phenotype of the disease. LBs are composed of abnormal glycogen and various associated proteins, including p62, an autophagy adaptor that participates in the aggregation and clearance of misfolded proteins. To study the role of p62 in the formation of LBs and its participation in the pathology of LD, we generated a mouse model of the disease (malin^KO) lacking p62. Deletion of p62 prevented LB accumulation in skeletal muscle and cardiac tissue. In the brain, the absence of p62 altered LB morphology and increased susceptibility to epilepsy. These results demonstrate that p62 participates in the formation of LBs and suggest that the sequestration of abnormal glycogen into LBs is a protective mechanism through which it reduces the deleterious consequences of its accumulation in the brain.

A time series approach to player churn and conversion in videogames

Players of a free-to-play game are divided into three main groups: non-paying active users, paying active users and inactive users. A State Space time series approach is then used to model the daily conversion rates between the different groups, i.e., the probability of transitioning from one group to another. This allows, not only for predictions on how these rates are to evolve, but also for a deeper understanding of the impact that in-game planning and calendar effects have. It is also used in this work for the detection of marketing and promotion campaigns about which no information is available. In particular, two different State Space formulations are considered and compared: an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average process and an Unobserved Components approach, in both cases with a linear regression to explanatory variables. Both yield very close estimations for covariate parameters, producing forecasts with similar performances for most transition rates. While the Unobserved Components approach is more robust and needs less human intervention in regards to model definition, it produces significantly worse forecasts for non-paying user abandonment probability. More critically, it also fails to detect a plausible marketing and promotion campaign scenario.

Effect of maceration time and the addition of enzymes on the amino acid composition of musts and wines and its influence on wine aroma Influencia del tiempo de maceración y de la adición de enzimas sobre la composición de los aminoácidos de mostos y vinos y su relación con el aroma

The purpose of this work is to study the effect of maceration time (with and without pectolitic en zyme addition) on the concentrations of 18 amino acids found in must and wines of the Macabeo grape variety. The presence of enzymes had a significant effect on the relative composition of the amino acids. The maceration process, with or without enzymes, led to a decrease in amino acid con tent after 2 h of maceration. After 2 h the solid parts of the grape released amino acids into the must, with the maximum concentration reached after 6 h. A certain degree of correlation given by principal component analysis was observed between the concentration of valine, isoleucine and histidine present in the musts and the aromatic compounds in the wines related to the metabolism of the fatty acids (hexanoic acid, octanoic acid, ethyl octanoate, hexanoate and decanoate). For the wines, a high corre lation was found between valine and isobutanol and a lower value for valine with isoamyl alcohol and β-phenyl ethanol.

Mortality in a cohort of young primary cocaine users: controlling the effect of the riskiest drug-use behaviors

BACKGROUND

Published studies indicate that primary cocaine users (PCUs) have a mortality rate 4-8 times higher than their age-sex peers in the general population. Most PCUs are primary intranasal cocaine users, never-injectors and never-opioid users (PICUNINOs) and are usually underrepresented in cohort mortality studies. The aim is to estimate excess mortality in all PCUs and in the subgroups of never-opioid users and PICUNINOs in Spain.

METHODS

714 PCUs aged 18-30 were street-recruited in 2004-2006 in Spain and followed until 2010 to ascertain vital status. Drug use was self-reported at baseline and 1-2years later. Mortality was compared with that of the general population using standardized mortality ratios (SMRs).

RESULTS

SMRs were 4.7 (95% CI: 2.4-9.0), 2.5 (95%CI: 0.8-7.8) and 3.1 (95% CI: 1.0-9.6), respectively, among all participants, never-opioid users and PICUNINOS when using only baseline data on drug use, and 1.2 (95% CI: 0.2-8.5) and 1.4 (95% CI: 0.2-9.9) among the latter two subgroups, when using baseline plus follow-up data.

CONCLUSION

Short-term mortality in young Spanish PCUs is 5 times higher than in the general population. This excess mortality may largely be explained by a history of opioid use or the risk of starting such use.

[Safe injection rooms and police crackdowns in areas with heavy drug dealing. Evaluation by counting discarded syringes collected from the public space]

The evolution of drug injection in public places is analysed using as indicator the number of syringes collected from public spaces, evaluating as well the influence of public health harm reduction interventions and of police actions, with a before and after quasi experimental study. Monthly syringe counts on the semester before and after each intervention were compared both in the involved district and in the city as a whole, using the U and z tests with a 95% confidence level. The average number of collected syringes drops from 13.132 in 2004 to 3.190 in 2012. Comparing indicators before and after health and police interventions, the opening of a facility with a supervised drug consumption room in the inner city was associated with a huge reduction in the number of abandoned syringes in the city, while its number did not rise in the district where the facility was located. The subsequent opening of another drug consumption room did not have a significant impact in collected syringes in the area. Some police interventions in 2005-2006 and 2011 had a significant impact in the indicators of the involved districts, while others did not. Harm reduction programs might have a favourable impact on drug injection in public spaces and related syringe presence. Some police interventions appear to have an impact while others do not or just have a modest local and temporary effect.

[Quality deficits in the Spanish National Death Index: lessons learned from studying the mortality of two cohorts of people admitted to drug abuse treatment]

OBJECTIVE

The use of the Spanish National Death Index (S-NDI) is increasing as it is free and easily accessible. Prompted by unexpected findings when linking two cohorts of patients with the S-NDI, this study was performed to evaluate the quality of mortality data from this source.

METHODS

Individual records of two cohorts of persons admitted to drug abuse treatment in Barcelona (n=19,974) and Madrid (n=17,557) were linked with the S-NDI and then with the National Statistics Institute (NSI) to assign vital status. The sensitivity and specificity of the S-NDI in relation to the NSI and estimates of mortality with both systems were obtained. Underestimation of mortality by the S-NDI for the same period in the whole of Spain was also calculated.

RESULTS

For Madrid, from 1997-2008, independent searches in the S-NDI underestimated mortality by 18.9% compared with the NSI. A subsequent individualized search limited to deaths detected by the NSI but not by the S-NDI reduced underestimation to 13.9%. For Barcelona, underestimation with a combined search (independent plus limited) was 3.3%. From 2001-2002, underestimation with combined searches reached 32.3% in Madrid and 7.3% in Barcelona. Underestimation was also seen in the general Spanish population (1.8% in 1997-2008 and 9.3% in 2001-2002). From 1997-2008, the specificity of independent searches in the S-NDI was 100%, but its sensitivity in Madrid was only 81%.

CONCLUSIONS

The quality of the S-NDI is good enough for many uses in the health sector, but this index underestimates mortality with substantial spatiotemporal variations. The quality of the S-NDI could be increased by improving its search algorithms, enabling on-line tabulations of the main results, and introducing quality controls and routine evaluations.