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Becker DJ, Albery GF, Sjodin AR, Poisot T, Bergner LM, Chen B, Cohen LE, Dallas TA, Eskew EA, Fagre AC, Farrell MJ, Guth S, Han BA, Simmons NB, Stock M, Teeling EC, Carlson CJ. Optimising predictive models to prioritise viral discovery in zoonotic reservoirs. Lancet Microbe 2022; 3:e625-e637. [PMID: 35036970 PMCID: PMC8747432 DOI: 10.1016/s2666-5247(21)00245-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/03/2023]
Abstract
Despite the global investment in One Health disease surveillance, it remains difficult and costly to identify and monitor the wildlife reservoirs of novel zoonotic viruses. Statistical models can guide sampling target prioritisation, but the predictions from any given model might be highly uncertain; moreover, systematic model validation is rare, and the drivers of model performance are consequently under-documented. Here, we use the bat hosts of betacoronaviruses as a case study for the data-driven process of comparing and validating predictive models of probable reservoir hosts. In early 2020, we generated an ensemble of eight statistical models that predicted host-virus associations and developed priority sampling recommendations for potential bat reservoirs of betacoronaviruses and bridge hosts for SARS-CoV-2. During a time frame of more than a year, we tracked the discovery of 47 new bat hosts of betacoronaviruses, validated the initial predictions, and dynamically updated our analytical pipeline. We found that ecological trait-based models performed well at predicting these novel hosts, whereas network methods consistently performed approximately as well or worse than expected at random. These findings illustrate the importance of ensemble modelling as a buffer against mixed-model quality and highlight the value of including host ecology in predictive models. Our revised models showed an improved performance compared with the initial ensemble, and predicted more than 400 bat species globally that could be undetected betacoronavirus hosts. We show, through systematic validation, that machine learning models can help to optimise wildlife sampling for undiscovered viruses and illustrates how such approaches are best implemented through a dynamic process of prediction, data collection, validation, and updating.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel J Becker
- Department of Biology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA
| | - Gregory F Albery
- Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Anna R Sjodin
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA
| | - Timothée Poisot
- Université de Montréal, Département de Sciences Biologiques, Montréal, QC, Canada
| | - Laura M Bergner
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
- Medical Research Centre, University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow, UK
| | - Binqi Chen
- Center for Global Health Science and Security, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Lily E Cohen
- Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA
| | - Tad A Dallas
- Department of Biological Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA
| | - Evan A Eskew
- Department of Biology, Pacific Lutheran University, Tacoma, WA, USA
| | - Anna C Fagre
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology, and Pathology, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
- Bat Health Foundation, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Maxwell J Farrell
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Sarah Guth
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Barbara A Han
- Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY, USA
| | - Nancy B Simmons
- Department of Mammalogy, Division of Vertebrate Zoology, American Museum of Natural History, New York, NY, USA
| | - Michiel Stock
- Research Unit Knowledge-based Systems, Department of Data Analysis and Mathematical Modelling, Ghent University, Belgium
| | - Emma C Teeling
- School of Biology and Environmental Science, Science Centre West, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Colin J Carlson
- Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA
- Center for Global Health Science and Security, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC, USA
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC, USA
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Albery GF, Becker DJ, Brierley L, Brook CE, Christofferson RC, Cohen LE, Dallas TA, Eskew EA, Fagre A, Farrell MJ, Glennon E, Guth S, Joseph MB, Mollentze N, Neely BA, Poisot T, Rasmussen AL, Ryan SJ, Seifert S, Sjodin AR, Sorrell EM, Carlson CJ. The science of the host-virus network. Nat Microbiol 2021; 6:1483-1492. [PMID: 34819645 DOI: 10.1038/s41564-021-00999-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/30/2020] [Accepted: 10/18/2021] [Indexed: 01/21/2023]
Abstract
Better methods to predict and prevent the emergence of zoonotic viruses could support future efforts to reduce the risk of epidemics. We propose a network science framework for understanding and predicting human and animal susceptibility to viral infections. Related approaches have so far helped to identify basic biological rules that govern cross-species transmission and structure the global virome. We highlight ways to make modelling both accurate and actionable, and discuss the barriers that prevent researchers from translating viral ecology into public health policies that could prevent future pandemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gregory F Albery
- Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington DC, USA.
| | - Daniel J Becker
- Department of Biology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA
| | - Liam Brierley
- Institute of Translational Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Cara E Brook
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | | | - Lily E Cohen
- Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA
| | - Tad A Dallas
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA
| | - Evan A Eskew
- Department of Biology, Pacific Lutheran University, Tacoma, WA, USA
| | - Anna Fagre
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Pathology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Maxwell J Farrell
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Emma Glennon
- Disease Dynamics Unit, Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Sarah Guth
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Maxwell B Joseph
- Earth Lab, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Nardus Mollentze
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.,MRC - University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow, UK
| | - Benjamin A Neely
- National Institute of Standards and Technology, Charleston, SC, USA
| | - Timothée Poisot
- Québec Centre for Biodiversity Sciences, Montréal, Québec, Canada.,Département de Sciences Biologiques, Université de Montréal, Montréal, Québec, Canada
| | - Angela L Rasmussen
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada.,Department of Biochemistry, Microbiology, and Immunology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada
| | - Sadie J Ryan
- Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.,Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.,School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Stephanie Seifert
- Paul G. Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA
| | - Anna R Sjodin
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA
| | - Erin M Sorrell
- Center for Global Health Science and Security, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC, USA.,Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Colin J Carlson
- Center for Global Health Science and Security, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC, USA. .,Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC, USA.
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Presley SJ, Graf J, Hassan AF, Sjodin AR, Willig MR. Effects of Host Species Identity and Diet on the Biodiversity of the Microbiota in Puerto Rican Bats. Curr Microbiol 2021; 78:3526-3540. [PMID: 34318342 DOI: 10.1007/s00284-021-02607-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2021] [Accepted: 07/02/2021] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Microbiota perform vital functions for their mammalian hosts, making them potential drivers of host evolution. Understanding effects of environmental factors and host characteristics on the composition and biodiversity of the microbiota may provide novel insights into the origin and maintenance of these symbiotic relationships. Our goals were to (1) characterize biodiversity of oral and rectal microbiota in bats from Puerto Rico; and (2) determine the effects of geographic location and host characteristics on that biodiversity. We collected bats and their microbiota from three sites, and used four metrics (species richness, Shannon diversity, Camargo evenness, Berger-Parker dominance) to characterize biodiversity. We quantified the relative importance of site, host sex, host species-identity, and host foraging-guild on biodiversity of the microbiota. Microbe biodiversity was highly variable among conspecifics. Geographical location exhibited consistent effects, whereas host sex did not. Within each host guild, host species exhibited consistent differences in biodiversity of oral microbiota and of rectal microbiota. Oral microbe biodiversity was indistinguishable between guilds, whereas rectal microbe biodiversity was significantly greater in carnivores than in herbivores. The high intraspecific and spatial variation in microbe biodiversity necessitate a relatively large number of samples to statistically isolate the effects of environmental or host characteristics on the microbiota. Species-specific biodiversity of oral microbiota suggests these communities are structured by direct interactions with the host immune system via epithelial receptors. In contrast, the number of microbial taxa that a host gut supports may be driven by host diet-diversity or composition.
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Affiliation(s)
- Steven J Presley
- Institute of the Environment, Center for Environmental Sciences & Engineering, and Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, 3107 Horsebarn Hill Road, Storrs, CT, 06269-4210, USA.
| | - Joerg Graf
- Department of Molecular & Cell Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, 06269-3125, USA
| | - Ahmad F Hassan
- Department of Molecular & Cell Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, 06269-3125, USA
| | - Anna R Sjodin
- Institute of the Environment, Center for Environmental Sciences & Engineering, and Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, 3107 Horsebarn Hill Road, Storrs, CT, 06269-4210, USA.,Department of Biological Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, 83844, USA
| | - Michael R Willig
- Institute of the Environment, Center for Environmental Sciences & Engineering, and Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, 3107 Horsebarn Hill Road, Storrs, CT, 06269-4210, USA
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Basinski AJ, Fichet-Calvet E, Sjodin AR, Varrelman TJ, Remien CH, Layman NC, Bird BH, Wolking DJ, Monagin C, Ghersi BM, Barry PA, Jarvis MA, Gessler PE, Nuismer SL. Bridging the gap: Using reservoir ecology and human serosurveys to estimate Lassa virus spillover in West Africa. PLoS Comput Biol 2021; 17:e1008811. [PMID: 33657095 PMCID: PMC7959400 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008811] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2020] [Revised: 03/15/2021] [Accepted: 02/17/2021] [Indexed: 01/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Forecasting the risk of pathogen spillover from reservoir populations of wild or domestic animals is essential for the effective deployment of interventions such as wildlife vaccination or culling. Due to the sporadic nature of spillover events and limited availability of data, developing and validating robust, spatially explicit, predictions is challenging. Recent efforts have begun to make progress in this direction by capitalizing on machine learning methodologies. An important weakness of existing approaches, however, is that they generally rely on combining human and reservoir infection data during the training process and thus conflate risk attributable to the prevalence of the pathogen in the reservoir population with the risk attributed to the realized rate of spillover into the human population. Because effective planning of interventions requires that these components of risk be disentangled, we developed a multi-layer machine learning framework that separates these processes. Our approach begins by training models to predict the geographic range of the primary reservoir and the subset of this range in which the pathogen occurs. The spillover risk predicted by the product of these reservoir specific models is then fit to data on realized patterns of historical spillover into the human population. The result is a geographically specific spillover risk forecast that can be easily decomposed and used to guide effective intervention. Applying our method to Lassa virus, a zoonotic pathogen that regularly spills over into the human population across West Africa, results in a model that explains a modest but statistically significant portion of geographic variation in historical patterns of spillover. When combined with a mechanistic mathematical model of infection dynamics, our spillover risk model predicts that 897,700 humans are infected by Lassa virus each year across West Africa, with Nigeria accounting for more than half of these human infections. The 2019 emergence of SARS-CoV-2 is a grim reminder of the threat animal-borne pathogens pose to human health. Even prior to SARS-CoV-2, the spillover of pathogens from animal reservoirs was a persistent problem, with pathogens such as Ebola, Nipah, and Lassa regularly but unpredictably causing outbreaks. Machine-learning models that anticipate when and where pathogen transmission from animals to humans is likely to occur would help guide surveillance efforts and preemptive countermeasures like information campaigns or vaccination programs. We develop a novel machine learning framework that uses datasets describing the distribution of a virus within its host and the range of its animal host, along with data on spatial patterns of human immunity, to infer rates of animal-to-human transmission across a region. By training the model on data from the animal host alone, our framework allows rigorous validation of spillover predictions using human data. We apply our framework to Lassa fever, a viral disease of West Africa that is spread to humans by rodents, and use the predictions to update estimates of Lassa virus infections in humans. Our results suggest that Nigeria is most at risk for the emergence of Lassa virus, and should be prioritized for outbreak-surveillance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrew J. Basinski
- Department of Mathematics, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | | | - Anna R. Sjodin
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho, United States of America
| | - Tanner J. Varrelman
- Bioinformatics and Computational Biology, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho, United States of America
| | - Christopher H. Remien
- Department of Mathematics, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho, United States of America
| | - Nathan C. Layman
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho, United States of America
| | - Brian H. Bird
- One Health Institute, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - David J. Wolking
- One Health Institute, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Corina Monagin
- One Health Institute, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Bruno M. Ghersi
- One Health Institute, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Peter A. Barry
- Center for Comparative Medicine, California National Primate Research Center, Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, University of California, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Michael A. Jarvis
- School of Biomedical and Healthcare Sciences, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, United Kingdom
| | - Paul E. Gessler
- College of Natural Resources, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho, United States of America
| | - Scott L. Nuismer
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho, United States of America
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