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Garrett KA, Bebber DP, Etherton BA, Gold KM, Plex Sulá AI, Selvaraj MG. Climate Change Effects on Pathogen Emergence: Artificial Intelligence to Translate Big Data for Mitigation. Annu Rev Phytopathol 2022; 60:357-378. [PMID: 35650670 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-phyto-021021-042636] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
Plant pathology has developed a wide range of concepts and tools for improving plant disease management, including models for understanding and responding to new risks from climate change. Most of these tools can be improved using new advances in artificial intelligence (AI), such as machine learning to integrate massive data sets in predictive models. There is the potential to develop automated analyses of risk that alert decision-makers, from farm managers to national plant protection organizations, to the likely need for action and provide decision support for targeting responses. We review machine-learning applications in plant pathology and synthesize ideas for the next steps to make the most of these tools in digital agriculture. Global projects, such as the proposed global surveillance system for plant disease, will be strengthened by the integration of the wide range of new data, including data from tools like remote sensors, that are used to evaluate the risk ofplant disease. There is exciting potential for the use of AI to strengthen global capacity building as well, from image analysis for disease diagnostics and associated management recommendations on farmers' phones to future training methodologies for plant pathologists that are customized in real-time for management needs in response to the current risks. International cooperation in integrating data and models will help develop the most effective responses to new challenges from climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- K A Garrett
- Plant Pathology Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA;
- Food Systems Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA
| | - D P Bebber
- Department of Biosciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
| | - B A Etherton
- Plant Pathology Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA;
- Food Systems Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA
| | - K M Gold
- Plant Pathology and Plant Microbe Biology Section, School of Integrative Plant Sciences, Cornell AgriTech, Cornell University, Geneva, New York, USA
| | - A I Plex Sulá
- Plant Pathology Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA;
- Food Systems Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA
| | - M G Selvaraj
- The Alliance of Bioversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colombia
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Buddenhagen CE, Xing Y, Andrade-Piedra JL, Forbes GA, Kromann P, Navarrete I, Thomas-Sharma S, Choudhury RA, Andersen Onofre KF, Schulte-Geldermann E, Etherton BA, Plex Sulá AI, Garrett KA. Where to Invest Project Efforts for Greater Benefit: A Framework for Management Performance Mapping with Examples for Potato Seed Health. Phytopathology 2022; 112:1431-1443. [PMID: 34384240 DOI: 10.1094/phyto-05-20-0202-r] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Policymakers and donors often need to identify the locations where technologies are most likely to have important effects, to increase the benefits from agricultural development or extension efforts. Higher-quality information may help to target the high-benefit locations, but often actions are needed with limited information. The value of information (VOI) in this context is formalized by evaluating the results of decision making guided by a set of specific information compared with the results of acting without considering that information. We present a framework for management performance mapping that includes evaluating the VOI for decision making about geographic priorities in regional intervention strategies, in case studies of Andean and Kenyan potato seed systems. We illustrate the use of recursive partitioning, XGBoost, and Bayesian network models to characterize the relationships among seed health and yield responses and environmental and management predictors used in studies of seed degeneration. These analyses address the expected performance of an intervention based on geographic predictor variables. In the Andean example, positive selection of seed from asymptomatic plants was more effective at high altitudes in Ecuador. In the Kenyan example, there was the potential to target locations with higher technology adoption rates and with higher potato cropland connectivity, i.e., a likely more important role in regional epidemics. Targeting training to high management performance areas would often provide more benefits than would random selection of target areas. We illustrate how assessing the VOI can contribute to targeted development programs and support a culture of continuous improvement for interventions.[Formula: see text] Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY 4.0 International license.
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Affiliation(s)
- C E Buddenhagen
- Plant Pathology Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Food Systems Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- AgResearch, Ltd., Ruakura, Hamilton, New Zealand
| | - Y Xing
- Plant Pathology Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Food Systems Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
| | | | | | - P Kromann
- International Potato Center, Lima, Peru
- Field Crops, Wageningen University and Research, Lelystad, The Netherlands
| | - I Navarrete
- International Potato Center, Lima, Peru
- Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
- Knowledge, Technology and Innovation, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - S Thomas-Sharma
- Department of Plant Pathology and Crop Physiology, Louisiana State University Agricultural Center, Baton Rouge, U.S.A
| | - R A Choudhury
- Plant Pathology Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Food Systems Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- School of Earth, Environment, Marine Science, University of Texas, Rio Grande Valley, U.S.A
| | - K F Andersen Onofre
- Plant Pathology Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Food Systems Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Department of Plant Pathology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, U.S.A
| | - E Schulte-Geldermann
- International Potato Center, Nairobi, Kenya
- Department of Agriculture, University of Applied Sciences Bingen, Bingen, Germany
| | - B A Etherton
- Plant Pathology Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Food Systems Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
| | - A I Plex Sulá
- Plant Pathology Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Food Systems Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
| | - K A Garrett
- Plant Pathology Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Food Systems Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
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