Impact of analysis technique on our understanding of the natural history of labour: a simulation study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the discrepancy between historical and more recent descriptions of the first stage of labour by testing whether the statistical techniques used recently (repeated-measures polynomial and interval-censored regression) were appropriate for detection of periods of rapid acceleration of cervical dilatation as might occur at the time of transition from a latent to an active phase of labour.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A simulation study using regression techniques.

SAMPLE

We created a simulated data set for 500 000 labours with clearly defined latent and active phases using the parameters described by Friedman. Additionally, we created a data set comprising 500 000 labours with a progressively increasing rate of cervical dilatation.

METHODS

Repeated-measures polynomial regression was used to create summary labour curves based on simulated cervical examinations. Interval-censored regression was used to create centimetre-by-centimetre estimates of rates of cervical dilatation and their 95th centiles.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Labour summary curves and rates of cervical dilatation.

RESULTS

Repeated-measures polynomial regression did not detect the rapid acceleration in cervical dilatation (i.e. acceleration phase) and overestimated lengths of labour, especially at smaller cervical dilatations. There was a two-fold overestimation in the mean rate of cervical dilatation from 4 to 6 cm. Interval-censored regression overestimated median transit times, at 4- to 5-cm cervical dilatation or when cervical examinations occurred less frequently than 0.5- to 1.5-hourly.

CONCLUSION

Repeated-measures polynomial regression and interval-censored regression should not be routinely used to define labour progress because they do not accurately reflect the underlying data.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

Repeated-measures polynomial and interval-censored regression techniques are not appropriate to model first stage of labour.

Ultrasound features prior to 11 weeks' gestation and first-trimester maternal factors in prediction of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy

OBJECTIVES

Maternal hypertensive disorders (MHD), including pregnancy-induced hypertension and pre-eclampsia, are estimated to occur in 7-10% of pregnancies worldwide and have significant short- and long-term implications for both mother and fetus. This study aimed to determine the association of conventional and novel early first-trimester ultrasound measures with MHD and whether these ultrasound measures, combined with maternal characteristics and biochemistry, improve the prediction of MHD.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study of consecutive women with a singleton pregnancy, attending for an early (5 + 1 to 11 + 0 weeks' gestation) ultrasound examination at a private obstetric ultrasound practice between February 2016 and August 2018. Recorded ultrasound measurements included mean sac diameter, yolk sac diameter, crown-rump length, fetal heart rate (FHR), trophoblast thickness, trophoblast volume (TV) and mean uterine artery pulsatility index. Maternal biochemistry was assessed at 10-14 weeks and included beta-human chorionic gonadotropin, pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A), placental growth factor (PlGF) and maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein. Regression models were fitted for each ultrasound parameter and multiples of the median (MoM) were calculated. All measures were compared between women who had a normotensive outcome and those who subsequently developed MHD. Logistic regression analysis was used to create a prediction model for MHD based on maternal characteristics, ultrasound measurements at 5 + 1 to 11 + 0 weeks' gestation and maternal biochemistry at 10-14 weeks.

RESULTS

In total, 1141 women were included in the analysis, of whom 1086 (95.2%) were normotensive at delivery and 55 (4.8%) developed MHD. Women who developed MHD weighed significantly more than did normotensive women (P < 0.0001). Mean MoM values for TV (P = 0.006), PAPP-A (P = 0.031) and PlGF (P = 0.044) were decreased significantly in pregnancies that subsequently developed MHD. The proposed logistic regression model includes maternal weight and height and MoM values for TV, FHR and PlGF, resulting in an area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve of 0.80 (95% CI, 0.75-0.86).

CONCLUSION

The combination of maternal weight and height, TV and FHR, measured prior to 11 weeks' gestation, and first-trimester PlGF appears to have good predictive value for development of MHD later in pregnancy. Copyright © 2020 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.