Regional and temporal variations in COVID-19 cases and deaths in Ethiopia: Lessons learned from the COVID-19 enhanced surveillance and response

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most devastating public health emergencies of international concern to have occurred in the past century. To ensure a safe, scalable, and sustainable response, it is imperative to understand the burden of disease, epidemiological trends, and responses to activities that have already been implemented. We aimed to analyze how COVID-19 tests, cases, and deaths varied by time and region in the general population and healthcare workers (HCWs) in Ethiopia.

METHODS

COVID-19 data were captured between October 01, 2021, and September 30, 2022, in 64 systematically selected health facilities throughout Ethiopia. The number of health facilities included in the study was proportionally allocated to the regional states of Ethiopia. Data were captured by standardized tools and formats. Analysis of COVID-19 testing performed, cases detected, and deaths registered by region and time was carried out.

RESULTS

We analyzed 215,024 individuals' data that were captured through COVID-19 surveillance in Ethiopia. Of the 215,024 total tests, 18,964 COVID-19 cases (8.8%, 95% CI: 8.7%- 9.0%) were identified and 534 (2.8%, 95% CI: 2.6%- 3.1%) were deceased. The positivity rate ranged from 1% in the Afar region to 15% in the Sidama region. Eight (1.2%, 95% CI: 0.4%- 2.0%) HCWs died out of 664 infected HCWs, of which 81.5% were from Addis Ababa. Three waves of outbreaks were detected during the analysis period, with the highest positivity rate of 35% during the Omicron period and the highest rate of ICU beds and mechanical ventilators (38%) occupied by COVID-19 patients during the Delta period.

CONCLUSIONS

The temporal and regional variations in COVID-19 cases and deaths in Ethiopia underscore the need for concerted efforts to address the disparities in the COVID-19 surveillance and response system. These lessons should be critically considered during the integration of the COVID-19 surveillance system into the routine surveillance system.

SARS-CoV-2 co-detection with influenza and human respiratory syncytial virus in Ethiopia: Findings from the severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) and influenza-like illness (ILI) sentinel surveillance, January 01, 2021, to June 30, 2022

SARS-CoV-2 co-infection with the influenza virus or human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) may complicate its progress and clinical outcomes. However, data on the co-detection of SARS-CoV-2 with other respiratory viruses are limited in Ethiopia and other parts of Africa to inform evidence-based response and decision-making. We analyzed 4,989 patients' data captured from the national severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) and influenza-like illness (ILI) sentinel surveillance sites over 18 months period from January 01, 2021, to June 30, 2022. Laboratory specimens were collected from the patients and tested for viral respiratory pathogens by real-time, reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) at the national influenza center. The median age of the patients was 14 years (IQR: 1-35 years), with a slight preponderance of them being at the age of 15 to less than 50 years. SARS-CoV-2 was detected among 459 (9.2%, 95% CI: 8.4-10.0) patients, and 64 (1.3%, 95% CI: 1.0-1.6) of SARS-CoV-2 were co-detected either with Influenza virus (54.7%) or RSV (32.8%) and 12.5% were detected with both of the viruses. A substantial proportion (54.7%) of SARS-CoV-2 co-detection with other respiratory viruses was identified among patients in the age group from 15 to less than 50 years. The multivariable analysis found that the odds of SARS-CoV-2 co-detection was higher among individuals with the age category of 20 to 39 years as compared to those less than 20 years old (AOR: 1.98, 95%CI:1.15-3.42) while the odds of SARS-CoV-2 co-detection was lower among cases from other regions of the country as compared to those from Addis Ababa (AOR:0.16 95%CI:0.07-0.34). Although the SARS-CoV-2 co-detection with other respiratory viral pathogens was minimal, the findings of this study underscore that it is critical to continuously monitor the co-infections to reduce transmission and improve patient outcomes, particularly among the youth and patients with ILI.

Achievement of Target Gain Larger than Unity in an Inertial Fusion Experiment

On December 5, 2022, an indirect drive fusion implosion on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) achieved a target gain G_{target} of 1.5. This is the first laboratory demonstration of exceeding "scientific breakeven" (or G_{target}>1) where 2.05 MJ of 351 nm laser light produced 3.1 MJ of total fusion yield, a result which significantly exceeds the Lawson criterion for fusion ignition as reported in a previous NIF implosion [H. Abu-Shawareb et al. (Indirect Drive ICF Collaboration), Phys. Rev. Lett. 129, 075001 (2022)PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.129.075001]. This achievement is the culmination of more than five decades of research and gives proof that laboratory fusion, based on fundamental physics principles, is possible. This Letter reports on the target, laser, design, and experimental advancements that led to this result.

Magnitude and Determinants of Syphilis and HIV Co-Infection Among Female Sex Workers in Ethiopia: Evidence from Respondent Driven Samples, 2019-2020

Background

Female sex workers (FSWs) play an important role in transmitting Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and syphilis from high-risk groups to the general population. Syphilis and HIV infections are generally more prevalent among FSWs. However, in Ethiopia, up-to-date evidence about Syphilis-HIV co-infections among FSWs was lacking.

Objective

To determine the magnitude and determinants of Syphilis-HIV co-infection among FSWs in Ethiopia, 2019-2020.

Methods

A cross-sectional HIV and other sexually transmitted infections Bio-Behavioral Survey (HSBS) was conducted using respondent-driven sampling (RDS) among 6,085 FSWs in Ethiopia from August 2019 to January 2020. Data was collected, merged with laboratory data, and analyzed in R software using the RDS package. The odds ratio was calculated at 95% CI to measure associations between the dependent and independent variables. Variables that yield p<0.25 in univariate analysis were included in multivariate analysis. In multivariate analysis, variables with p<0.05 were declared as statistically significant. Results were presented in frequency tables and charts.

Results

The prevalence of Syphilis-HIV co-infection among FSWs was 2.9% [95% CI=2.6-3.2]. Age of the FSWs (15-19 years old (AOR=0.03; 95% CI=0.01-0.12)), non-formal educational level (AOR=3.18; 95% CI=1.78-5.68), monthly income <2,500 ETB (AOR=3.05; 95% CI=1.45-6.42), major depression (AOR=1.85; 95% CI=1.18-2.89), forced first sex experience (AOR=1.71; 95% CI=1.2-2.44), condom breakage (AOR=1.62; 95% CI=1.14-2.30), Hepatitis B seropositivity (AOR=2.32; 95% CI=1.10-4.90), and Hepatitis C seropositivity (AOR=5.37; 95% CI=1.70-16.93) were strongly associated with Syphilis-HIV co-infection among FSWs in Ethiopia.

Conclusion

The prevalence of Syphilis-HIV co-infection among FSWs in Ethiopia was high. To ward off Syphilis-HIV co-infection among FSWs, a special FSWs-targeted HIV and Syphilis/STIs prevention program and treatment approach needs to be devised. An outreach approach to address the sexual and reproductive health needs of FSWs has to be part of the strategy.

Lawson Criterion for Ignition Exceeded in an Inertial Fusion Experiment

For more than half a century, researchers around the world have been engaged in attempts to achieve fusion ignition as a proof of principle of various fusion concepts. Following the Lawson criterion, an ignited plasma is one where the fusion heating power is high enough to overcome all the physical processes that cool the fusion plasma, creating a positive thermodynamic feedback loop with rapidly increasing temperature. In inertially confined fusion, ignition is a state where the fusion plasma can begin "burn propagation" into surrounding cold fuel, enabling the possibility of high energy gain. While "scientific breakeven" (i.e., unity target gain) has not yet been achieved (here target gain is 0.72, 1.37 MJ of fusion for 1.92 MJ of laser energy), this Letter reports the first controlled fusion experiment, using laser indirect drive, on the National Ignition Facility to produce capsule gain (here 5.8) and reach ignition by nine different formulations of the Lawson criterion.

Segmental pulmonary veno-occlusive disease secondary to lung cancer

This report describes two cases of segmental pulmonary vein occlusion secondary to lung malignancy in which lung biopsies showed histological features of veno-occlusive disease. These are the first cases to be reported in the literature in which such lung parenchymal histological changes are described in association with lung malignancy.

The role and histological classification of needle core biopsy in comparison with fine needle aspiration cytology in the preoperative assessment of impalpable breast lesions

AIMS

To investigate the role of needle core biopsy (NCB) in the preoperative assessment of impalpable breast lesions, mainly derived from the NHS Breast Screening Programme (NHSBSP) and to assess our own modifications to a suggested system for the classification of breast NCBs.

METHODS

The NCB, fine needle aspiration cytology (FNAC), and radiology scores from 298 women with non-palpable breast lesions presenting between January 1997 and December 1998, together with the open biopsy results (where available) were collated and analysed.

RESULTS

The mean follow up period was 15.8 months (range, 5-28). The 298 NCB specimens were categorised as follows: unsatisfactory/non-representative (B1; n = 61; 20.5%), benign but uncertain whether representative (B2r; n = 52; 17.4%), benign (B2; n = 103; 34.6%), lesions possibly associated with malignancy but essentially benign (B3a; n = 9; 3.0%), atypical epithelial proliferations (B3b; n = 10; 3.4%), suspicious of malignancy (B4; n = 7; 2.3%), and malignant (B5; n = 56; 18.7%). Excision biopsy was performed in 43 cases within the B1 (n = 19), B2r (n = 8), B2 (n = 8), and the B3a (n = 8; data unavailable in one case) categories, revealing malignancy in 18 (42.8%) cases and in 65 cases within the B3b, B4, and B5 categories, revealing malignancy in 64 cases (98.5%). The sensitivity of NCB for malignancy was 87.7%, with a specificity and positive predictive value of 99.3% and 98.5%, respectively. FNAC had an inadequacy rate of 58.7%, a complete sensitivity of 34.5% and a specificity of 47.6%.

CONCLUSIONS

This study confirms the value of NCB in the preoperative assessment of impalpable breast lesions. Two new categories are suggested for the NCB classification; category B2r for benign breast tissue where representativeness is uncertain, and the subdivision of category B3 into B3a for benign lesions potentially associated with malignancy (for example, radial scars and intraduct papillomas) and B3b for more worrisome atypical epithelial proliferations. These will aid the accurate audit of NCB and identify more clearly the intellectual pathway leading to a particular assessment.

Late relapse of desquamative interstitial pneumonia

Late relapse in desquamative interstitial pneumonia (DIP) is poorly documented. We describe 2 cases of relapse after 7 and 12 yr of therapeutic remission. Lung biopsies taken initially and at the time of relapse showed very similar appearances on both occasions, with little increase in fibrosis in the second sample. Patients with DIP in remission should be followed indefinitely.

Development of acute lung injury after the combination of intravenous bleomycin and exposure to hyperoxia in rats

Pulmonary toxicity is an important adverse effect of bleomycin treatment. Very little is known of the mechanisms underlying the development of lung injury, especially after intravenous administration, or how it can be modulated. In this study acute lung injury induced by bleomycin has been examined in rats by assessment of alveolar lavage cell profiles, histological examination, and measurement of the total pulmonary extravascular albumin space. Intratracheal instillation of bleomycin 1.5 mg resulted in a severe pneumonitis with influx of inflammatory cells into the alveoli as assessed by alveolar lavage, oedema of the alveolar walls, and up to an eight fold increase in the total pulmonary extravascular albumin space, maximal at 72 hours. Intravenous bleomycin 0.15-5 mg produced no detectable injury when assessed in these ways. Exposure to hyperoxia (40-90%) after intravenous bleomycin, however, induced lung injury similar to that produced by intratracheal bleomycin. A much more severe injury followed administration of intravenous bleomycin after an exposure to hyperoxia, which itself resulted in lung injury; but lung injury was still detectable after bleomycin when the exposure to hyperoxia was insufficient to induce changes in control animals. Lung injury was not observed when the exposure to hyperoxia preceded bleomycin treatment. These results indicate the importance of oxygen in the pathways leading to acute lung injury following intravenous bleomycin. We conclude that exposure to oxygen might induce lung injury during and after bleomycin treatment, and suggest that in these circumstances oxygen therapy should be kept to a minimum.

Expression of epithelial and neural antigens in small cell and non small cell lung carcinoma

Seventy-one lung carcinomas from 66 different patients were stained with a panel of monoclonal antibodies. Twenty-nine were small cell lung carcinoma (SCLC), 15 adenocarcinomas, 17 squamous carcinomas and 10 large cell carcinomas. Three of the monoclonal antibodies recognize different cytokeratins, three recognize other epithelial antigens and one recognizes a neural antigen. Both formalin-fixed and cryopreserved tumours were studied using an indirect immunoperoxidase method. 23/29 SCLC reacted with all but one of the antibodies which recognize epithelial antigens. This staining was similar to that seen in non small cell lung carcinomas (NSCLC) and provides further evidence that SCLC are true epithelial tumours. All but one of the SCLC stained with the antibody recognizing a neural antigen. This antibody did not stain squamous or adenocarcinomas. However, four of the large cell carcinomas stained well with this antibody, suggesting that SCLC and some large cell carcinomas share a common pathway of differentiation. There were variations of staining seen both within and between tumours. This has obvious implications if immunotargetting with monoclonal antibodies is to be used diagnostically or therapeutically.

Fatal haemorrhage from mycotic aneurysms of the pulmonary artery

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Thymolipoma in association with Hodgkin's disease

Thymolipomas are rare mediastinal tumors. They have been described with a variety of systemic diseases. To our knowledge they have never been described in association with Hodgkin's disease. The significance of this association is unknown.

Epidemic hypochlorhydria

During a study of gastric secretion four out of six previously healthy subjects developed hypochlorhydria after a transient illness with nausea, vomiting, and abdominal pain. Mean basal and peak acid outputs were 0 and 2.3 mmol (84 mg)/h one month after the onset of illness and 1.5 and 27.0 mmol/h (55 and 984 mg/h) at eight months' follow up. Two of the subjects were followed up at 18 months, when mean basal and peak acid outputs were 3.9 and 33.5 mmol/h (142 and 1221 mg/h). No endoscopic abnormality was seen at one and eight months, but biopsies showed active superficial gastritis, which resolved in one subject and became chronic in two. Schilling tests performed in three subjects at eight months showed diminished retention of vitamin B12. During hypochlorhydria a 24 hour intragastric analysis was performed for total and nitrate reducing bacteria, pH, and concentrations of nitrite and total and stable N-nitroso compounds. Of the 48 samples of gastric juice examined, 47 had bacterial growth of more than 10(6) organisms/ml and 46 had growth of nitrate reducing bacteria of more than 10(5) organisms/ml. Mean intragastric nitrite concentrations were 10 times higher than in a group of eight healthy controls. Both mean total and mean stable N-nitroso compound concentrations, however, were not appreciably different from those in controls. Although community transmission was a possibility, serological screening and electron microscopy of gastric biopsy specimens failed to show an infective cause. Transmission of an unidentified enteric pathogen via a contaminated pH electrode was therefore suspected. Thus gastric juice should not be returned to the stomach after contact with a contaminated glass electrode as this is a possible cause of atrophic gastritis.