Virulence-driven trade-offs in disease transmission: A meta-analysis

The virulence-transmission trade-off hypothesis proposed more than 30 years ago is the cornerstone in the study of host-parasite co-evolution. This hypothesis rests on the premise that virulence is an unavoidable and increasing cost because the parasite uses host resources to replicate. This cost associated with replication ultimately results in a deceleration in transmission rate because increasing within-host replication increases host mortality. Empirical tests of predictions of the hypothesis have found mixed support, which cast doubt about its overall generalizability. To quantitatively address this issue, we conducted a meta-analysis of 29 empirical studies, after reviewing over 6000 published papers, addressing the four core relationships between (1) virulence and recovery rate, (2) within-host replication rate and virulence, (3) within-host replication and transmission rate, and (4) virulence and transmission rate. We found strong support for an increasing relationship between replication and virulence, and replication and transmission. Yet, it is still uncertain if these relationships generally decelerate due to high within-study variability. There was insufficient data to quantitatively test the other two core relationships predicted by the theory. Overall, the results suggest that the current empirical evidence provides partial support for the trade-off hypothesis, but more work remains to be done.

Global gene flow releases invasive plants from environmental constraints on genetic diversity

When plants establish outside their native range, their ability to adapt to the new environment is influenced by both demography and dispersal. However, the relative importance of these two factors is poorly understood. To quantify the influence of demography and dispersal on patterns of genetic diversity underlying adaptation, we used data from a globally distributed demographic research network comprising 35 native and 18 nonnative populations of Plantago lanceolata Species-specific simulation experiments showed that dispersal would dilute demographic influences on genetic diversity at local scales. Populations in the native European range had strong spatial genetic structure associated with geographic distance and precipitation seasonality. In contrast, nonnative populations had weaker spatial genetic structure that was not associated with environmental gradients but with higher within-population genetic diversity. Our findings show that dispersal caused by repeated, long-distance, human-mediated introductions has allowed invasive plant populations to overcome environmental constraints on genetic diversity, even without strong demographic changes. The impact of invasive plants may, therefore, increase with repeated introductions, highlighting the need to constrain future introductions of species even if they already exist in an area.

Uncertainty in predictions of disease spread and public health responses to bioterrorism and emerging diseases

Concerns over bioterrorism and emerging diseases have led to the widespread use of epidemic models for evaluating public health strategies. Partly because epidemic models often capture the dynamics of prior epidemics remarkably well, little attention has been paid to how uncertainty in parameter estimates might affect model predictions. To understand such effects, we used Bayesian statistics to rigorously estimate the uncertainty in the parameters of an epidemic model, focusing on smallpox bioterrorism. We then used a vaccination model to translate the uncertainty in the model parameters into uncertainty in which of two vaccination strategies would provide a better response to bioterrorism, mass vaccination, or vaccination of social contacts, so-called "trace vaccination." Our results show that the uncertainty in the model parameters is remarkably high and that this uncertainty has important implications for vaccination strategies. For example, under one plausible scenario, the most likely outcome is that mass vaccination would save approximately 100,000 more lives than trace vaccination. Because of the high uncertainty in the parameters, however, there is also a substantial probability that mass vaccination would save 200,000 or more lives than trace vaccination. In addition to providing the best response to the most likely outcome, mass vaccination thus has the advantage of preventing outcomes that are only slightly less likely but that are substantially more horrific. Rigorous estimates of uncertainty thus can reveal hidden advantages of public health strategies, suggesting that formal uncertainty estimation should play a key role in planning for epidemics.

Host-pathogen interactions, insect outbreaks, and natural selection for disease resistance

The theory of insect population dynamics has shown that heterogeneity in natural-enemy attack rates is strongly stabilizing. We tested the usefulness of this theory for outbreaking insects, many of which are attacked by infectious pathogens. We measured heterogeneity among gypsy moth larvae in their risk of infection with a nucleopolyhedrovirus, which is effectively heterogeneity in the pathogen's attack rate. Our data show that heterogeneity in infection risk in this insect is so high that it leads to a stable equilibrium in the models, which is inconsistent with the outbreaks seen in North American gypsy moth populations. Our data further suggest that infection risk declines after epidemics, in turn suggesting that the model assumption of constant infection risk is incorrect. We therefore constructed an alternative model in which natural selection drives fluctuations in infection risk, leading to reductions after epidemics because of selection for resistance and increases after epidemics because of a cost of resistance. This model shows cycles even for high heterogeneity, and experiments confirm that infection risk is indeed heritable. The model is very general, and so we argue that natural selection for disease resistance may play a role in many insect outbreaks.

Pathogen persistence in the environment and insect-baculovirus interactions: disease-density thresholds, epidemic burnout, and insect outbreaks

Classical epidemic theory focuses on directly transmitted pathogens, but many pathogens are instead transmitted when hosts encounter infectious particles. Theory has shown that for such diseases pathogen persistence time in the environment can strongly affect disease dynamics, but estimates of persistence time, and consequently tests of the theory, are extremely rare. We consider the consequences of persistence time for the dynamics of the gypsy moth baculovirus, a pathogen transmitted when larvae consume foliage contaminated with particles released from infectious cadavers. Using field-transmission experiments, we are able to estimate persistence time under natural conditions, and inserting our estimates into a standard epidemic model suggests that epidemics are often terminated by a combination of pupation and burnout rather than by burnout alone, as predicted by theory. Extending our models to allow for multiple generations, and including environmental transmission over the winter, suggests that the virus may survive over the long term even in the absence of complex persistence mechanisms, such as environmental reservoirs or covert infections. Our work suggests that estimates of persistence times can lead to a deeper understanding of environmentally transmitted pathogens and illustrates the usefulness of experiments that are closely tied to mathematical models.

Climate change and an invasive, tropical milkweed: an ecological trap for monarch butterflies

While it is well established that climate change affects species distributions and abundances, the impacts of climate change on species interactions has not been extensively studied. This is particularly important for specialists whose interactions are tightly linked, such as between the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) and the plant genus Asclepias, on which it depends. We used open-top chambers (OTCs) to increase temperatures in experimental plots and placed either nonnative Asclepias curassavica or native A. incarnata in each plot along with monarch larvae. We found, under current climatic conditions, adult monarchs had higher survival and mass when feeding on A. curassavica. However, under future conditions, monarchs fared much worse on A. curassavica. The decrease in adult survival and mass was associated with increasing cardenolide concentrations under warmer temperatures. Increased temperatures alone reduced monarch forewing length. Cardenolide concentrations in A. curassavica may have transitioned from beneficial to detrimental as temperature increased. Thus, the increasing cardenolide concentrations may have pushed the larvae over a tipping point into an ecological trap; whereby past environmental cues associated with increased fitness give misleading information. Given the ubiquity of specialist plant-herbivore interactions, the potential for such ecological traps to emerge as temperatures increase may have far-reaching consequences.

Social constraints on the onset of incubation in a neotropical parrot: a nestbox addition experiment

We examined whether the early onset of incubation serves to protect eggs from the dangers imposed by conspecifics in the green-rumped parrotlet, Forpus passerinus, a small neotropical parrot that lays a large clutch and begins incubation on the first egg. Nestboxes with eggs were installed and their fate was followed for 72 h to determine whether egg destruction and nest site take-overs occurred as predicted by the Egg Protection and Limited Breeding Opportunities Hypotheses, or whether additional eggs appeared in the boxes as predicted by the Brood Parasitism Hypothesis. Eggs were destroyed at 40.6% of 69 experimental boxes but at only 4.5% of control nests occupied by laying pairs. No eggs were laid in the experimental boxes. Egg destruction at experimental nests occurred during daylight hours and all mortality was caused by green-rumped parrotlets. Over 75% of the nests were destroyed by male-female pairs prospecting for nest sites, and the remainder were destroyed by male-male pairs. Lone males never destroyed eggs, although they frequently visited experimental boxes. Two of three failures at control nests were the result of nocturnal predators, and the other nest was apparently destroyed by parrotlets. There was no significant difference between experimental and control boxes in the frequency of visitations by lone males, male-female pairs and male-male pairs. Although experimental boxes that parrotlets visited were discovered quickly after placement, parrotlets were usually slow to enter them (X=5.8 h after discovery, range 0.3-23.5 h). Control nests were rarely left unattended: females spent nearly 75% of their time in the box, and pairs were typically absent for short intervals (median=7.5 min). Control females responded to intruding parrotlets by remaining in the box 94% of the time when alone, whereas males actively displaced and chased intruding parrotlets 66% of the time. Parrotlets that visited control nests approached the box significantly less often than those visiting experimental boxes. To ensure the survival of eggs, parrotlet parents must begin incubating eggs or guarding nests soon after laying to minimize destruction of clutches, loss of nest sites, a decline in the viability of their eggs and the time that all nestlings are exposed to predators. Copyright 1998 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

Host behaviour and exposure risk in an insect-pathogen interaction

1. Studies of variability in host resistance to disease generally emphasize variability in susceptibility given exposure, neglecting the possibility that hosts may vary in behaviours that affect the risk of exposure. 2. In many insects, horizontal transmission of baculoviruses occurs when larvae consume foliage contaminated by the cadavers of virus-infected conspecific larvae; so, host behaviour may have a strong effect on the risk of infection. 3. We studied variability in the behaviour of gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) larvae, which are able to detect and avoid virus-contaminated foliage. 4. Our results show that detection ability can be affected by the family line that larvae originate from, even at some distance from a virus-infected cadaver, and suggest that cadaver-detection ability may be heritable. 5. There is thus the potential for natural selection to act on cadaver-detection ability, and thereby to affect the dynamics of pathogen-driven cycles in gypsy moth populations. 6. We argue that host behaviour is a neglected component in studies of variability in disease resistance.

Cannibalism and Infectious Disease: Friends or Foes?

Cannibalism occurs in a majority of both carnivorous and noncarnivorous animal taxa from invertebrates to mammals. Similarly, infectious parasites are ubiquitous in nature. Thus, interactions between cannibalism and disease occur regularly. While some adaptive benefits of cannibalism are clear, the prevailing view is that the risk of parasite transmission due to cannibalism would increase disease spread and, thus, limit the evolutionary extent of cannibalism throughout the animal kingdom. In contrast, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the other half of the interaction between cannibalism and disease, that is, how cannibalism affects parasites. Here we examine the interaction between cannibalism and parasites and show how advances across independent lines of research suggest that cannibalism can also reduce the prevalence of parasites and, thus, infection risk for cannibals. Cannibalism does this by both directly killing parasites in infected victims and by reducing the number of susceptible hosts, often enhanced by the stage-structured nature of cannibalism and infection. While the well-established view that disease should limit cannibalism has held sway, we present theory and examples from a synthesis of the literature showing how cannibalism may also limit disease and highlight key areas where conceptual and empirical work is needed to resolve this debate.

Population-level differences in disease transmission: a Bayesian analysis of multiple smallpox epidemics

Estimates of a disease's basic reproductive rate R0 play a central role in understanding outbreaks and planning intervention strategies. In many calculations of R0, a simplifying assumption is that different host populations have effectively identical transmission rates. This assumption can lead to an underestimate of the overall uncertainty associated with R0, which, due to the non-linearity of epidemic processes, may result in a mis-estimate of epidemic intensity and miscalculated expenditures associated with public-health interventions. In this paper, we utilize a Bayesian method for quantifying the overall uncertainty arising from differences in population-specific basic reproductive rates. Using this method, we fit spatial and non-spatial susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) models to a series of 13 smallpox outbreaks. Five outbreaks occurred in populations that had been previously exposed to smallpox, while the remaining eight occurred in Native-American populations that were naïve to the disease at the time. The Native-American outbreaks were close in a spatial and temporal sense. Using Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), we show that the best model includes population-specific R0 values. These differences in R0 values may, in part, be due to differences in genetic background, social structure, or food and water availability. As a result of these inter-population differences, the overall uncertainty associated with the "population average" value of smallpox R0 is larger, a finding that can have important consequences for controlling epidemics. In general, Bayesian hierarchical models are able to properly account for the uncertainty associated with multiple epidemics, provide a clearer understanding of variability in epidemic dynamics, and yield a better assessment of the range of potential risks and consequences that decision makers face.

Disturbance-mediated trophic interactions and plant performance

Disturbances, such as flooding, play important roles in determining community structure. Most studies of disturbances focus on the direct effects and, hence, the indirect effects of disturbances are poorly understood. Within terrestrial riparian areas, annual flooding leads to differences in the arthropod community as compared to non-flooded areas. In turn, these differences are likely to alter the survival, growth, and reproduction of plant species via an indirect effect of flooding (i.e., changes in herbivory patterns). To test for such effects, an experiment was conducted wherein arthropod predators and herbivores were excluded from plots in flooded and non-flooded areas and the impact on a common riparian plant, Mimulus guttatus was examined. In general, the direct effect of flooding on M. guttatus was positive. The indirect effects, however, significantly decreased plant survival for both years of the experiment, regardless of predator presence, because of an increased exposure to grasshoppers, the most abundant herbivore in the non-flooded sites. Leafhoppers, which were more abundant in the flooded sites, had much weaker and varying effects. During 2000, when the leafhopper herbivory was high, arthropod predators did not significantly reduce damage to plants. In 2001, the mean herbivory damage was lower and predators were able to significantly reduce overall leafhopper damage. The effects of predators on leafhoppers, however, did not increase plant survival, final weight, or the reproduction potential and, thus, did not initiate a species-level trophic cascade. Overall, it was the differences in the herbivore community that led to a significant decrease in plant survival. While flooding certainly alters riparian plant survival through direct abiotic effects, it also indirectly affects riparian plants by changing the arthropod community, in particular herbivores, and hence trophic interactions.

No appendix necessary: Fecal transplants and antibiotics can resolve Clostridium difficile infection

The appendix has been hypothesized to protect the colon against Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) by providing a continuous source of commensal bacteria that crowd out the potentially unhealthy bacteria and/or by contributing to defensive immune dynamics. Here, a series of deterministic systems comprised of ordinary differential equations, which treat the system as an ecological community of microorganisms, model the dynamics of colon microbiome. The first model includes migration of commensal bacteria from the appendix to the gut, while the second model expands this to also include immune dynamics. Simulations and simple analytic techniques are used to explore dynamics under biologically relevant parameters values. Both models exhibited bistability with steady states of a healthy state and of fulminant CDI. However, we find that the appendix size was much too small for migration to affect the stability of the system. Both models affirm the use of fecal transplants in conjunction with antibiotic use for CDI treatment, while the second model also suggests that anti-inflammatory drugs may protect against CDI. Ultimately, in general neither the appendiceal migration rate of commensal microbiota nor the boost to antibody production could exert an appreciable impact on the stability of the system, thus failing to support the proposed protective role of the appendix against CDI.

PHENOTYPIC PLASTICITY MASKS RANGE-WIDE GENETIC DIFFERENTIATION FOR VEGETATIVE BUT NOT REPRODUCTIVE TRAITS IN A SHORT-LIVED PLANT

Genetic differentiation and phenotypic plasticity jointly shape intraspecific trait variation, but their roles differ among traits. In short-lived plants, reproductive traits may be more genetically determined due to their impact on fitness, whereas vegetative traits may show higher plasticity to buffer short-term perturbations. Combining a multi-treatment greenhouse experiment with observational field data throughout the range of a widespread short-lived herb, Plantago lanceolata, we (1) disentangled genetic and plastic responses of functional traits to a set of environmental drivers and (2) assessed how genetic differentiation and plasticity shape observational trait-environment relationships. Reproductive traits showed distinct genetic differentiation that largely determined observational patterns, but only when correcting traits for differences in biomass. Vegetative traits showed higher plasticity and opposite genetic and plastic responses, masking the genetic component underlying field-observed trait variation. Our study suggests that genetic differentiation may be inferred from observational data only for the traits most closely related to fitness.

Plant genotype and induced defenses affect the productivity of an insect-killing obligate viral pathogen

Plant-mediated variations in the outcomes of host-pathogen interactions can strongly affect epizootics and the population dynamics of numerous species, including devastating agricultural pests such as the fall armyworm. Most studies of plant-mediated effects on insect pathogens focus on host mortality, but few have measured pathogen yield, which can affect whether or not an epizootic outbreak occurs. Insects challenged with baculoviruses on different plant species and parts can vary in levels of mortality and yield of infectious stages (occlusion bodies; OBs). We previously demonstrated that soybean genotypes and induced anti-herbivore defenses influence baculovirus infectivity. Here, we used a soybean genotype that strongly reduced baculovirus infectivity when virus was ingested on induced plants (Braxton) and another that did not reduce infectivity (Gasoy), to determine how soybean genotype and induced defenses influence OB yield and speed of kill. These are key fitness measures because baculoviruses are obligate-killing pathogens. We challenged fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, with the baculovirus S. frugiperda multi-nucleocapsid nucleopolyhedrovirus (SfMNPV) during short or long-term exposure to plant treatments (i.e., induced or non-induced genotypes). Caterpillars were either fed plant treatments only during virus ingestion (short-term exposure to foliage) or from the point of virus ingestion until death (long-term exposure). We found trade-offs of increasing OB yield with slower speed of kill and decreasing virus dose. OB yield increased more with longer time to death and decreased more with increasing virus dose after short-term feeding on Braxton compared with Gasoy. OB yield increased significantly more with time to death in larvae that fed until death on non-induced foliage than induced foliage. Moreover, fewer OBs per unit of host tissue were produced when larvae were fed induced foliage than non-induced foliage. These findings highlight the potential importance of plant effects, even at the individual plant level, on entomopathogen fitness, which may impact epizootic transmission events and host population dynamics.

Overdispersed Spatial Patterning of Dominant Bunchgrasses in Southeastern Pine Savannas

Spatial patterning is a key natural history attribute of sessile organisms that frequently emerges from and dictates potential for interactions among organisms. We tested whether bunchgrasses, the dominant plant functional group in longleaf pine savanna groundcover communities, are nonrandomly patterned by characterizing the spatial dispersion of three bunchgrass species across six sites in Louisiana and Florida. We mapped bunchgrass tussocks of >5.0 cm basal diameter in three [Formula: see text] plots at each site. We modeled tussocks as two-dimensional objects to analyze their spatial relationships while preserving sizes and shapes of individual tussocks. Tussocks were overdispersed (more regularly spaced than random) for all species and sites at the local interaction scale (<0.3 m). This general pattern likely arises from a tussock-centered, distance-dependent mechanism, for example, intertussock competition. Nonrandom spatial patterns of dominant species have implications for community assembly and ecosystem function in tussock-dominated grasslands and savannas, including those characterized by extreme biodiversity.

Bottom-up trait-mediated indirect effects decrease pathogen transmission in a tritrophic system

A plant's induction of secondary defenses helps to decrease herbivore damage by changing resource quality. While these chemical or physical defenses may directly decrease herbivory, they can also have indirect consequences. In a tritrophic system consisting of a plant, an insect herbivore, and an insect pathogen, plant based trait-mediated indirect effects (TMIEs) can alter host-pathogen interactions and, thereby, indirectly affect disease transmission. In a series of field experiments, individual soybean plants (Glycine max) were sprayed with either a jasmonic acid (JA) solution to trigger induction of plant defenses or a similar control compound. Fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) larvae along with varying amounts of a lethal baculovirus were placed on the plants to measure transmission. Induction of plant defenses decreased viral transmission due to increased population heterogeneity arising from changes in individual susceptibility. The change in susceptibility via TMIEs was driven by a decrease in feeding rates and an increase viral dose needed to infect larvae. While the induction against herbivore attack may decrease herbivory, it can also decrease the efficacy of the herbivore's pathogen potentially to the plant's detriment. While TMIEs have been well-recognized for being driven by top-down forces, bottom-up interactions can dictate community dynamics and, here, epizootic severity.