Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries.

METHODS

GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990-2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0-9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10-24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10-24 years were also in the top ten in the 25-49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50-74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI.

INTERPRETATION

As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors.

METHODS

We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis.

FINDINGS

We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4-65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8-175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [-7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64-1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52-1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41-67]) and western Europe (74% [58-90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329-403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323-395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia.

INTERPRETATION

Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures.

Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3·5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS

For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS

The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION

There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of fine-needle aspiration cytology for parotid gland lesions

The clinical usefulness of fine-needle aspiration cytology (FNAC) for the diagnosis of parotid gland lesions is controversial. Many accuracy studies have been published, but the literature has not been adequately summarized. We identified 64 studies on the diagnosis of malignancy (6,169 cases) and 7 studies on the diagnosis of neoplasia (795 cases). The diagnosis of neoplasia (area under the summary receiver operating characteristic [AUSROC] curve, 0.99; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.97-1.00) had higher accuracy than the diagnosis of malignancy (AUSROC, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.94-0.97). Several sources of bias were identified that could affect study estimates. Studies on the diagnosis of malignancy showed significant heterogeneity (P < .001). The subgroups of American, French, and Turkish studies showed greater homogeneity, but the accuracy of these subgroups was not significantly different from that of the remaining subgroup. It is not possible to provide a general guideline on the clinical usefulness of FNAC for parotid gland lesions owing to the variability in study results. There is a need to improve the quality of reporting and to improve study designs to remove or assess the impact of bias.

Equivalency of the diagnostic accuracy of the PHQ-8 and PHQ-9: a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Item 9 of the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) queries about thoughts of death and self-harm, but not suicidality. Although it is sometimes used to assess suicide risk, most positive responses are not associated with suicidality. The PHQ-8, which omits Item 9, is thus increasingly used in research. We assessed equivalency of total score correlations and the diagnostic accuracy to detect major depression of the PHQ-8 and PHQ-9.

METHODS

We conducted an individual patient data meta-analysis. We fit bivariate random-effects models to assess diagnostic accuracy.

RESULTS

16 742 participants (2097 major depression cases) from 54 studies were included. The correlation between PHQ-8 and PHQ-9 scores was 0.996 (95% confidence interval 0.996 to 0.996). The standard cutoff score of 10 for the PHQ-9 maximized sensitivity + specificity for the PHQ-8 among studies that used a semi-structured diagnostic interview reference standard (N = 27). At cutoff 10, the PHQ-8 was less sensitive by 0.02 (-0.06 to 0.00) and more specific by 0.01 (0.00 to 0.01) among those studies (N = 27), with similar results for studies that used other types of interviews (N = 27). For all 54 primary studies combined, across all cutoffs, the PHQ-8 was less sensitive than the PHQ-9 by 0.00 to 0.05 (0.03 at cutoff 10), and specificity was within 0.01 for all cutoffs (0.00 to 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

PHQ-8 and PHQ-9 total scores were similar. Sensitivity may be minimally reduced with the PHQ-8, but specificity is similar.

Pre-migration and post-migration factors associated with mental health in humanitarian migrants in Australia and the moderation effect of post-migration stressors: findings from the first wave data of the BNLA cohort study

BACKGROUND

The process of becoming a humanitarian migrant is potentially damaging to mental health. We examined the association between pre-migration and post-migration potentially traumatic events and stressors and mental health, and assessed the moderating effect of post-migration stressors in humanitarian migrants in Australia.

METHODS

In this study, we used the first wave of data between 2013 and 2014 from the Building a New Life in Australia survey. The survey included 2399 migrants who had arrived in Australia holding a permanent humanitarian visa 3-6 months preceding the survey, with 77% and 23% of participants being granted visas through offshore and onshore humanitarian programmes, respectively. Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was measured with the Post-traumatic Stress Disorder 8 items (PTSD-8) and severe mental illness was measured with the Kessler Screening Scale for Psychological Distress (K6). Pre-migration potentially traumatic events and post-migration stressors related to asylum process and resettlement were measured with a self-reported questionnaire.

FINDINGS

Of the 2399 participants, 762 (31%; 95% CI 29·4-33·2) had PTSD and 394 (16%; 95% CI 14·2-17·2) had severe mental illness. The mean number of pre-migration potentially traumatic events was 2·1 (SD 1·4). 64%, 59%, 49%, and 18% of participants reported poor social integration, economic problems, worrying about family or friends overseas, and loneliness as post-migration stressors. Pre-migration potentially traumatic events and post-migration stressors were positively associated with PTSD and severe mental illness. Factors significantly modifying the association between pre-migration potentially traumatic events and mental health after controlling for confounding factors were resettlement related stressors, including loneliness (odds ratio 1·17, 95% CI 1·05-1·28 for PTSD and 1·28, 1·16-1·41 for severe mental illness) and the number of social integration stressors (1·10, 1·05-1·16 for PTSD).

INTERPRETATION

Our data suggest that post-migration resettlement-related stressors were the most important correlates of mental health in humanitarian migrants, accounting for both direct and indirect associations. Targeting resettlement-related stressors through augmenting psychosocial care programmes and social integration would be a key approach to improve humanitarian migrants' mental health.

FUNDING

None.

Association of Depressive Symptoms With Incident Cardiovascular Diseases in Middle-Aged and Older Chinese Adults

IMPORTANCE

The prevalence of depressive symptoms among older adults has become an increasingly important public health priority. Elevated depressive symptoms are well documented among elderly people with cardiovascular disease (CVD), but studies conducted among Chinese adults are scarce.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the association between depressive symptoms and incident CVD among middle-aged and older Chinese adults.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study is an ongoing nationally representative prospective cohort study that was initiated in 2011. This cohort study included 12 417 middle-aged and older Chinese adults without heart disease and stroke at baseline. Statistical analysis was conducted from April 25, 2018, to December 13, 2018.

EXPOSURE

Depressive symptoms were assessed using the validated 10-item of Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Incident CVD (ie, self-reported physician-diagnosed heart disease and stroke combined) was followed-up from June 1, 2011, to June 31, 2015. The Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale total score ranges from 0 to 30, with a score of 12 or more indicating elevated depressive symptoms.

RESULTS

Of the 12 417 participants (mean [SD] age at baseline, 58.40 [9.51] years), 6113 (49.2%) were men. During the 4 years of follow-up, 1088 incident CVD cases were identified. Elevated depressive symptoms were independently associated with an increased CVD risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.22-1.58) after adjusting for age, sex, residence, marital status, educational level, smoking status, drinking status, systolic blood pressure, and body mass index; history of diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and chronic kidney disease; and use of hypertension medications, diabetes medications, and lipid-lowering therapy. Of the 10 individual depressive symptoms measured by the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale, only 2 symptoms, restless sleep (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.06-1.39) and loneliness (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.02-1.44), were significantly associated with incident CVD.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Elevated depressive symptoms overall and 2 individual symptoms (restless sleep and loneliness) were significantly associated with incident CVD among middle-aged and older Chinese adults.

The relationship between anxiety symptom severity and problematic smartphone use: A review of the literature and conceptual frameworks

In the present paper, we examine the literature studying relations between problematic smartphone use (PSU) and anxiety symptom severity. We first present background on the health advantages and disadvantages of using a smartphone. Next, we provide caveats in distinguishing healthy smartphone use from unhealthy PSU, and we discuss how PSU is measured. Additionally, we discuss theoretical frameworks explaining how some people develop PSU, including Uses and Gratifications Theory, and Compensatory Internet Use Theory. We present our own theoretical model of how PSU is specifically related to anxiety. We discuss and review mental health constructs associated with PSU severity, based on prior literature. Next, we systematically review the research on PSU severity in relation to anxiety symptoms, given the recent growth of studies on this research question. Finally, we offer implications and recommendations for future research in this area.

Media use and acute psychological outcomes during COVID-19 outbreak in China

The COVID-19 outbreak in China led to an extraordinary threat to public health and wellbeing. This study examined the psychological impact of media use among people indirectly exposed to the disease during the initial phase of the outbreak. We conducted an internet-based survey on January 28, 2020 (one week after the official declaration of person-to-person transmission of the coronavirus). Media use (media forms, content of media exposure, and media engagement) related to the outbreak and psychological outcomes (positive and negative affect, anxiety, depression, and stress) of 917 Chinese adults was assessed. A series of multivariable regressions were conducted. The results showed that use of new media, rather than traditional media, was significantly associated with more negative affect, depression, anxiety, and stress. Viewing stressful content (i.e., severity of the outbreak, reports from hospital) was associated with more negative affect and depression. Media engagement was also associated with more negative affect, anxiety, and stress. However, viewing heroic acts, speeches from experts, and knowledge of the disease and prevention were associated with more positive affect and less depression. The study suggested new media use and more media engagement was associated with negative psychological outcomes, while certain media content was associated with positive psychological impact. The present study highlights the need for timely public health communication from official sources and suggests that reduced exposure to new media may be beneficial.

Adverse events, including death, associated with the use of 1,4-butanediol

BACKGROUND

1,4-Butanediol is an industrial solvent that, when ingested, is converted to gamma-hydroxybutyrate, a drug of abuse with depressant effects, primarily on the central nervous system. After reports of toxic effects of gamma-hydroxybutyrate and its resultant regulation by the federal government, 1,4-butanediol and gamma-butyrolactone, another precursor of gamma-hydroxybutyrate and an industrial solvent, began to be marketed as dietary supplements. We investigated reports of toxic effects due to the ingestion of 1,4-butanediol and reviewed the related health risks.

METHODS

From June 1999 through December 1999, we identified cases of toxic effects of 1,4-butanediol involving patients who presented to our emergency departments with a clinical syndrome suggesting toxic effects of gamma-hydroxybutyrate and a history of ingesting 1,4-butanediol and patients discovered through public health officials and family members. We used gas chromatography-mass spectrometry to measure 1,4-butanediol or its metabolite, gamma-hydroxybutyrate, in urine, serum, or blood.

RESULTS

We identified nine episodes of toxic effects in eight patients who had ingested 1,4-butanediol recreationally, to enhance bodybuilding, or to treat depression or insomnia. One patient presented twice with toxic effects and had withdrawal symptoms after her second presentation. Clinical findings and adverse events included vomiting, urinary and fecal incontinence, agitation, combativeness, a labile level of consciousness, respiratory depression, and death. No additional intoxicants were identified in six patients, including the two who died. The doses of 1,4-butanediol ingested ranged from 5.4 to 20 g in the patients who died and ranged from 1 to 14 g in the nonfatal cases.

CONCLUSIONS

The health risks of 1,4-butanediol are similar to those of its counterparts, gamma-hydroxybutyrate and gamma-butyrolactone. These include acute toxic effects, which may be fatal, and addiction and withdrawal.

Depression and anxiety symptoms are related to problematic smartphone use severity in Chinese young adults: Fear of missing out as a mediator

INTRODUCTION

Recently studies examined mediating psychological constructs accounting for relations between both depression and anxiety with problematic smartphone use (PSU) severity. The aim of the current study was to analyze the fear of missing out (FOMO) as a possible mediator in these relationships.

METHOD

We recruited 1034 Chinese undergraduate students via a web-based survey that measured smartphone use frequency, PSU, depression, anxiety and FOMO.

RESULTS

Structural equation modeling demonstrated that FOMO was significantly related to smartphone use frequency and PSU severity. FOMO significantly mediated relations between anxiety and both smartphone use frequency and PSU severity. FOMO did not account for relations between depression and smartphone use/PSU.

CONCLUSION

This is one of the first studies testing FOMO in relation to PSU severity among Asian participants. FOMO may be an important variable accounting for why some types of psychopathology (e.g., anxiety) are associated with PSU.

Prevalence of prenatal and postpartum depression in fathers: A comprehensive meta-analysis of observational surveys

BACKGROUND

Increasing attention has been paid to maternal prenatal and postpartum depressive symptoms (depression thereafter), but little is known about the prevalence of paternal prenatal and postpartum depression. To fill this gap, the current study meta-analyzed the worldwide prevalence of prenatal and postpartum depression in fathers.

METHODS

Studies that reported paternal depression occurring between the first trimester and the first postpartum year were identified by searching both international (PubMed, PsycINFO, Web of Science and EMBASE) and Chinese (WanFang and CNKI) databases between their inception date and July 1, 2018. A random-effects model was used to calculate pooled estimates and 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

Forty-seven studies with 20,728 subjects were included in the meta-analysis. The prevalence of prenatal depression in fathers was 9.76% in all three trimesters, 13.59% in the first, 11.31% in the second and 10.12% in the third trimester. The prevalence of postpartum depression was 8.75% within a whole year, 8.98% within one-month, 7.82% between one- and three months, 9.23% between three months and six months and 8.40% between six months to twelve months after child-birth. The prevalence of paternal postpartum depression was moderated by year of publication, study area, age of fathers of ≥18 years, quality assessment score and mean age (all P<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

This meta-analysis found that the prevalence of prenatal and postpartum depression in fathers was relatively common. Regular screening, effective prevention and appropriate treatment need to be implemented in this population.

History of acute knee injury and osteoarthritis of the knee: a prospective epidemiological assessment. The Clearwater Osteoarthritis Study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association between acute joint injury to the knee and knee osteoarthritis (OA).

DESIGN

Prospective cohort. Sample size = 1,436. Men and women aged 40 years and older participating in the population-based Clearwater Osteoarthritis Study (1988-current) with biennial physical exams including serial radiographs. Radiologically confirmed knee OA = 27%; self-reported knee injury = 11%. Lawrence and Kellgren ordinal scale was used to determine radiological evidence of the study outcome, knee OA. Self-reported history of knee injury was used to determine the study exposure.

RESULTS

Individuals with a history of knee injury were 7.4 (95% C.I. 5.9-9.4) times as likely to develop knee OA than were those individuals who did not have a history of knee injury.

CONCLUSION

Acute knee joint injury appears to be a risk factor for the development of knee OA. Prevention strategies for OA should be targeted to those individuals with a history of acute knee injury.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Exploring comorbidity between anxiety and depression among migrant Filipino domestic workers: A network approach

BACKGROUND

Depression and anxiety are comorbid. From the network model perspective, comorbidity is due to direct interactions between depression and anxiety symptoms. These interacting symptoms are called bridge symptoms, suppression of which is expected to halt other symptoms. This study investigates the network structure of depression, anxiety, and bridge symptoms in a sample of migrant domestic workers, who are among the most vulnerable and marginalized groups of workers.

METHOD

Data were collected from 1375 Filipino domestic workers in Macao Special Administrative Region, China. Data from a subsample of 355 consisting of participants who met criteria for depression and anxiety were used in analysis. R software was used to estimate the network.

RESULTS

The eight strongest edges were between items from the same disorder. Six were between depression symptoms, like "concentration difficulties" and "psychomotor agitation/retardation," and "psychomotor agitation/retardation" and "thoughts of death." Two were between anxiety symptoms, including "worry too much" and "trouble relaxing." For centrality indices, "fatigue" had highest strength and closeness, and "restlessness" had highest betweenness. Results revealed three bridge symptoms: "fatigue," "depressed mood," and "anhedonia."

LIMITATIONS

The results may not generalize to the entire Filipino population. Further, while the centrality index of strength had adequate stability, it was not highly stable.

CONCLUSIONS

The current study highlighted critical transdiagnostic bridge symptoms as specific candidates for intervention. "Psychomotor agitation/retardation" was identified as key priority due to its association with suicidal ideation. Systemic multilevel interventions at the person-level (e.g., cognitive therapy and behavioral activation), and at the structural and policy-level to alleviate psychosocial stressors, could be applied to address disorder comorbidity in this population.

Patient Health Questionnaire-9 scores do not accurately estimate depression prevalence: individual participant data meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Depression symptom questionnaires are not for diagnostic classification. Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) scores ≥10 are nonetheless often used to estimate depression prevalence. We compared PHQ-9 ≥10 prevalence to Structured Clinical Interview for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (SCID) major depression prevalence and assessed whether an alternative PHQ-9 cutoff could more accurately estimate prevalence.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Individual participant data meta-analysis of datasets comparing PHQ-9 scores to SCID major depression status.

RESULTS

A total of 9,242 participants (1,389 SCID major depression cases) from 44 primary studies were included. Pooled PHQ-9 ≥10 prevalence was 24.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 20.8%, 28.9%); pooled SCID major depression prevalence was 12.1% (95% CI: 9.6%, 15.2%); and pooled difference was 11.9% (95% CI: 9.3%, 14.6%). The mean study-level PHQ-9 ≥10 to SCID-based prevalence ratio was 2.5 times. PHQ-9 ≥14 and the PHQ-9 diagnostic algorithm provided prevalence closest to SCID major depression prevalence, but study-level prevalence differed from SCID-based prevalence by an average absolute difference of 4.8% for PHQ-9 ≥14 (95% prediction interval: -13.6%, 14.5%) and 5.6% for the PHQ-9 diagnostic algorithm (95% prediction interval: -16.4%, 15.0%).

CONCLUSION

PHQ-9 ≥10 substantially overestimates depression prevalence. There is too much heterogeneity to correct statistically in individual studies.

Trajectories of resilience, resistance, and distress during ongoing terrorism: the case of Jews and Arabs in Israel

This is the 1st longitudinal examination of trajectories of resilience and resistance (rather than ill-being) among a national sample under ongoing threat of mass casualty. The authors interviewed a nationally representative sample of Jews and Arabs in Israel (N = 709) at 2 times during a period of terrorist and rocket attacks (2004-2005). The resistance trajectory, exhibiting few or no symptoms of traumatic stress and depression at both time points, was substantially less common (22.1%) than has previously been documented in studies following single mass casualty events. The resilience trajectory, exhibiting initial symptoms and becoming relatively nonsymptomatic, was evidenced by 13.5% of interviewees. The chronic distress trajectory was documented among a majority of participants (54.0%), and a small proportion of persons were initially relatively symptom-free but became distressed (termed delayed distress trajectory; 10.3%). Less psychosocial resource loss and majority status (Jewish) were the most consistent predictors of resistance and resilience trajectories, followed by greater socioeconomic status, greater support from friends, and less report of posttraumatic growth.

The limits of resilience: distress following chronic political violence among Palestinians

We examined posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression symptom trajectories during ongoing exposure to political violence, seeking to identify psychologically resilient individuals and the factors that predict resilience. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with a random sample of 1196 Palestinian adult residents of the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem across three occasions, six months apart (September 2007-November 2008). Latent growth mixture modeling identified PTSD, and depression symptom trajectories. Results identified three PTSD trajectories: moderate-improving (73% moderate symptoms at baseline, improving over time), severe-chronic (23.2% severe and elevated symptoms over the entire year); and severe-improving (3.5% severe symptoms at baseline and marked improvement over time). Depression trajectories were moderate-improving (61.5%); severe-chronic (24.4%); severe-improving (14.4%). Predictors of relatively less severe initial symptom severity, and improvement over time for PTSD were less political violence exposure and less resource loss; and for depression were younger age, less political violence exposure, lower resource loss, and greater social support. Loss of psychosocial and material resources was associated with the level of distress experienced by participants at each time period, suggesting that resource-based interventions that target personal, social, and financial resources could benefit people exposed to chronic trauma.

An immunoperoxidase study of senile cerebral amyloidosis with pathogenetic considerations

Samples of human cerebral cortex were obtained from twelve autopsied patients with Alzheimer's disease or "normal" aging. Rabbit or goat anti-human antisera to the following plasma proteins: IgG, F(ab')2, Fc, kappa and lambda light chains, IgM, IgA, fibrinogen, albumin, C3, lysozyme, haptoglobin, macroglobulin, and microglobulin; antibodies to the following intracellular proteins: glial fibrillary acidic (GFA) protein, filamin, actin, non-muscle myosin, tubulin, cholinergic vesicle proteins, and neurofilament (NF) proteins were utilized in the immunoglobulin peroxidase bridge. Amyloid cores of classical or perivascular plaques and dyshoric angiopathy exhibited a strong reaction for intact IgG and for both of its light chains, moderate reactions for lysozyme, fibrinogen, albumin and IgA, and weak reactions for IgM, C3, Fc, F(ab')2, haptoglobin, macroglobulin and microglobulin. Antibodies to all three NF proteins, individually and pooled, stained dyshoric and plaque amyloid, while antibodies to other intracellular proteins did not. The coronae of classical plaques and many primitive plaques stained for GFA, but inconsistently for IgG, both light chains, lysozyme, actin, tubulin, and NF proteins. Affected vessels of three patients with Congophilic angiopathy were reactive for all plasma proteins (especially IgG, fibrinogen, and albumin) and for NF proteins. NF staining in Congophilic blood vessels, although variable, revealed a peripheral or adventitial distribution, whereas plasma proteins tended to be localized in the media of the vessel wall. The distributions of Congo red and NF positivity were often identical. Both NF and Congo red staining was sensitive to oxidation. Isolated NF proteins were Congophilic and capable of displaying apple-green birefringence. A hypothesis concerning the role of NF proteins in senile cerebral amyloid is presented.