Patterns of high-risk drinking among medical students: A web-based survey with machine learning

BACKGROUND

Prior studies have found increased rates of alcohol consumption among physicians and medical students. The present study aims to build machine learning (ML) models to identify patterns of high-risk drinking (HRD), including alcohol use disorder, within this population.

METHODS

We analyzed data collected through a web-based survey among Brazilian medical students. Variables included sociodemographic data, personal information, university status, and mental health. Stratification for HRD was carried out based on the AUDIT-C scores. Three ML algorithms were used to build classifiers to predict HRD among medical students: elastic net regularization, random forest, and artificial neural networks. Model interpretation techniques were adopted to assess the most influential predictors for models' decisions, which represent potential factors associated with HRD.

RESULTS

A total of 4840 medical students were included in the study. The prevalence of HRD was 53.03%. The three ML models built were able to distinguish individuals with HRD from low-risk drinking (LRD) with very similar performance. The average AUC scores in the cross-validation procedure were around 0.72, and this performance was replicated in the test set. The most important features for the ML models were the use of tobacco and cannabis, monthly family income, marital status, sexual orientation, and physical activities.

CONCLUSIONS

This study proposes that ML models may serve as tools for initial screening of students regarding their susceptibility for at-risk drinking or alcohol use disorder. In addition, we identified several key factors associated with HRD that could be further investigated and explored for preventive and assistance measures.

Preventing undesirable behavior of intelligent machines

Intelligent machines using machine learning algorithms are ubiquitous, ranging from simple data analysis and pattern recognition tools to complex systems that achieve superhuman performance on various tasks. Ensuring that they do not exhibit undesirable behavior-that they do not, for example, cause harm to humans-is therefore a pressing problem. We propose a general and flexible framework for designing machine learning algorithms. This framework simplifies the problem of specifying and regulating undesirable behavior. To show the viability of this framework, we used it to create machine learning algorithms that precluded the dangerous behavior caused by standard machine learning algorithms in our experiments. Our framework for designing machine learning algorithms simplifies the safe and responsible application of machine learning.