Short-term risk prediction after major lower limb amputation: PERCEIVE study

BACKGROUND

The accuracy with which healthcare professionals (HCPs) and risk prediction tools predict outcomes after major lower limb amputation (MLLA) is uncertain. The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of predicting short-term (30 days after MLLA) mortality, morbidity, and revisional surgery.

METHODS

The PERCEIVE (PrEdiction of Risk and Communication of outcomE following major lower limb amputation: a collaboratIVE) study was launched on 1 October 2020. It was an international multicentre study, including adults undergoing MLLA for complications of peripheral arterial disease and/or diabetes. Preoperative predictions of 30-day mortality, morbidity, and MLLA revision by surgeons and anaesthetists were recorded. Probabilities from relevant risk prediction tools were calculated. Evaluation of accuracy included measures of discrimination, calibration, and overall performance.

RESULTS

Some 537 patients were included. HCPs had acceptable discrimination in predicting mortality (931 predictions; C-statistic 0.758) and MLLA revision (565 predictions; C-statistic 0.756), but were poor at predicting morbidity (980 predictions; C-statistic 0.616). They overpredicted the risk of all outcomes. All except three risk prediction tools had worse discrimination than HCPs for predicting mortality (C-statistics 0.789, 0.774, and 0.773); two of these significantly overestimated the risk compared with HCPs. SORT version 2 (the only tool incorporating HCP predictions) demonstrated better calibration and overall performance (Brier score 0.082) than HCPs. Tools predicting morbidity and MLLA revision had poor discrimination (C-statistics 0.520 and 0.679).

CONCLUSION

Clinicians predicted mortality and MLLA revision well, but predicted morbidity poorly. They overestimated the risk of mortality, morbidity, and MLLA revision. Most short-term risk prediction tools had poorer discrimination or calibration than HCPs. The best method of predicting mortality was a statistical tool that incorporated HCP estimation.

O075 Antithrombotic therapy for aortic and peripheral artery aneurysms: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

The role of antithrombotic agents in aneurysm progression and outcomes following surgical or endovascular intervention is unclear.

Methods

A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed. Medline, Embase, and CENTRAL databases were searched. Randomised-controlled trials and observational studies investigating the effect of antithrombotic therapy on clinical outcomes for patients with aortic or extracranial peripheral arterial aneurysms were included. Aneurysm growth rate, major adverse cardiovascular or limb events, mortality, endoleaks, re-intervention rates, and other outcomes were captured.

Results

Fifty-seven studies involving 121,451 patients were included (26 antiplatelets, 12 anticoagulants, 16 any antithrombotic agent(s), 2 intra-operative heparin). Aspirin reduced growth rates of aortic aneurysms under surveillance (mean difference -0.9mm/y, 95%CI -1.74 to -0.07, p=0.03; GRADE certainty: moderate). For aortic aneurysms undergoing intervention, anti-thrombotics increased 30-day mortality (odds ratio [OR] 2.30, 95%CI 1.51 to 3.51, p<0.001; GRADE certainty: moderate). Antiplatelets reduced long-term all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0.84, 95%CI 0.76 to 0.92, p<0.001; GRADE certainty: moderate), whilst anticoagulants increased this risk (HR 1.64, 95%CI 1.14 to 2.37, p=0.008; GRADE certainty: very low). Anticoagulants increased incidence of endoleaks under 3 years, and re-intervention rates (p<0.05 for all). Antithrombotic agents did not significantly affect rupture rates in aortic aneurysms. Meta-analysis was not possible for ruptured aneurysms and popliteal aneurysms.

Conclusion

There is moderate quality evidence that aspirin reduces aneurysm growth rates. Antiplatelet agents reduced all-cause mortality in aneurysms after intervention; whilst anticoagulants increased this risk, along with endoleaks and re-interventions. Well-designed trials are required to determine therapeutic benefits of antithrombotic agents for patients with aneurysms.

Take-home message

Antiplatelets may have a role in reducing aneurysm growth rates and all-cause mortality; whilst anticoagulants are associated with increased mortality, endoleaks, and re-interventions. Well-designed trials are required to determine therapeutic benefits of antithrombotic agents for patients with aneurysms.

P6: ANTIPLATELET AND ANTICOAGULANT USE IN RANDOMISED TRIALS OF PATIENTS UNDERGOING ENDOVASCULAR INTERVENTION FOR PERIPHERAL ARTERIAL DISEASE: SYSTEMATIC REVIEW

Introduction

Guideline recommendations for antithrombotic (antiplatelet and anticoagulant) therapy during and after endovascular intervention are patchy and conflicted, in part due to a lack of evidence. The aim of this systematic review was to examine the antithrombotic specifications in randomised trials for peripheral arterial endovascular intervention.

Method

This review was conducted according to PRISMA guidelines. Randomised trials including participants with peripheral arterial disease undergoing endovascular arterial intervention were included. Trial methods were assessed to determine whether an antithrombotic protocol had been specified, its completeness, and the agent(s) prescribed. Antithrombotic protocols were classed as periprocedural (preceding/during intervention), immediate postprocedural (up to 14 days following intervention) and maintenance postprocedural (therapy continuing beyond 14 days). Trials were stratified according to type of intervention.

Result

Ninety-four trials were included. Only 29% of trials had complete periprocedural antithrombotic protocols, and 34% had complete post-procedural protocols. In total, 64 different periprocedural protocols, and 51 separate postprocedural protocols were specified.

Antiplatelet monotherapy and unfractionated heparin were the most common choices of regimen in the periprocedural setting, and dual antiplatelet therapy (55%) was most commonly utilised postprocedure. There is an increasing tendency to use dual antiplatelet therapy with time or for drug-coated technologies.

Conclusion

Randomised trials comparing different types of peripheral endovascular arterial intervention have a high level of heterogeneity in their antithrombotic regimens, and there has been an increasing tendency to use dual antiplatelet therapy over time. Antiplatelet regimes need to be standardised in trials comparing endovascular technologies.

Take-home message

To determine the benefits of any endovascular intervention within a randomised trial, antithrombotic regimens should be standardised to prevent confounding. This systematic review demonstrates a high level of heterogeneity of antithrombotic prescribing in randomised trials of endovascular intervention, and an increasing tendency to utilise dual antiplatelet therapy, despite a lack of evidence of benefit, but an increased risk of harm.

P90 PERCEIVE: PrEdiction of Risk and Communication of outcome following major lower limb amputation - a collaboratIVE study

Introduction

Major Lower Limb Amputation (MLLA) is a life changing event with significant morbidity and mortality. Inaccurate risk prediction can lead to poor decision making, resulting in delay to definitive surgery, or undertaking amputation when not in the patient’s best interest. We aim to answer: In adult patients undergoing MLLA for chronic limb threatening ischaemia or diabetes, how accurately do health care professionals prospectively predict outcomes after MLLA, and how does this compare to existing prediction tools?

Methods

A multicentre prospective observational cohort study is being delivered through the Vascular and Endovascular Research Network. Dissemination was via an existing network of contacts and social media.

Consecutive data will be collected for seven months from site launch date, including demographic data and pre-operative outcome predictions from surgeons, anaesthetists, and allied healthcare professionals. Follow-up data will comprise 30-day (mortality, morbidity, MLLA revision, surgical site infection, and blood transfusion) and 1-year (mortality, MLLA revision and ambulation). The accuracy of surgeons’ predictions will be evaluated and compared to pre-existing risk prediction scoring tools.

Results

PERCEIVE launched on 01/10/2020 with 23 centres (16 UK, 7 international) registered to collect data. 50 other centres (27 UK, 23 international) have expressed interest/are pursuing local audit/ethical approval. We aim to collect data on clinicians estimate of outcomes for over 500 patients.

Discussion

This study will utilise a trainee research network to provide data on the accuracy of healthcare professionals’ predictions of outcomes following MLLA and compare this to the utility of existing prediction tools in this patient cohort.

P132 TRAVERSING: Transfer of thoracic Aortic Vascular Emergencies to Regional Specialist Institutes Group

Introduction

The incidence of Acute Aortic Syndrome (AAS) is rising. The Department of Health is considering a supra regional tier of centralisation for complex aortic care. No standardised pathway exists to guide the transfer of patients with AAS, despite increasing evidence from coroners and the Healthcare Safety Investigation Board of delayed transfers and miscommunication costing lives. This study aims to deliver a pathway for the safe transfer of patients with suspected AAS to a specialist aortic centre through multidisciplinary Delphi consensus.

Methods

The researchers will create an interdisciplinary Steering Group to oversee the study, which will identify appropriate stakeholders for inclusion in the Delphi process. A systematic review will be performed to summarise existing evidence and highlight gaps in knowledge where consensus is required. The Steering Group will create, circulate and interpret the Delphi questionnaire. The outcomes will also enable determination of criteria for audit that should become the standard for ensuring a safe and efficient process for patient transfer to a complex aortic centre.

Results

Results will provide inter-disciplinary guidance to healthcare professionals for early management and transfer of patients with suspected AAS, and prevent unnecessary transfer, thereby improving outcomes, ensuring equity of access to specialist aortic care for patients. Results will also provide audit standards through which future improvements can be realised.

Conclusion

This study is reliant upon collaboration between multidisciplinary healthcare providers, qualitative researchers and patients. Its success will streamline emergency pathways in the management of AAS, saving lives and resources, with inbuilt mechanisms for continuous review and improvement.

Umbrella review and meta-analysis of antiplatelet therapy for peripheral artery disease

Background

The literature on antiplatelet therapy for peripheral artery disease has historically been summarized inconsistently, leading to conflict between international guidelines. An umbrella review and meta-analysis was performed to summarize the literature, allow assessment of competing safety risks and clinical benefits, and identify weak areas for future research.

Methods

MEDLINE, Embase, DARE, PROSPERO and Cochrane databases were searched from inception until January 2019. All meta-analyses of antiplatelet therapy in peripheral artery disease were included. Quality was assessed using AMSTAR scores, and GRADE analysis was used to quantify the strength of evidence. Data were pooled using random-effects models.

Results

Twenty-eight meta-analyses were included. Thirty-three clinical outcomes and 41 antiplatelet comparisons in 72 181 patients were analysed. High-quality evidence showed that antiplatelet monotherapy reduced non-fatal strokes (3 (95 per cent c.i. 0 to 6) fewer per 1000 patients), In symptomatic patients, it reduced cardiovascular deaths (8 (0 to 16) fewer per 1000 patients), but increased the risk of major bleeding (7 (3 to 14) more events per 1000). In asymptomatic patients, monotherapy reduced non-fatal strokes (5 (0 to 8) fewer per 1000), but had no other clinical benefit. Dual antiplatelet therapy caused more major bleeding after intervention than monotherapy (37 (8 to 102) more events per 1000), with very low-quality evidence of improved endovascular patency (risk ratio 4·00, 95 per cent c.i. 0·91 to 17·68).

Conclusion

Antiplatelet monotherapy has minimal clinical benefit for asymptomatic peripheral artery disease, and limited benefit for symptomatic disease, with a clear risk of major bleeding. There is a lack of evidence to guide antiplatelet prescribing after peripheral endovascular intervention.

Systematic review and narrative synthesis of surgeons' perception of postoperative outcomes and risk

BACKGROUND

The accuracy with which surgeons can predict outcomes following surgery has not been explored in a systematic way. The aim of this review was to determine how accurately a surgeon's 'gut feeling' or perception of risk correlates with patient outcomes and available risk scoring systems.

METHODS

A systematic review was undertaken in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. A narrative synthesis was performed in accordance with the Guidance on the Conduct of Narrative Synthesis In Systematic Reviews. Studies comparing surgeons' preoperative or postoperative assessment of patient outcomes were included. Studies that made comparisons with risk scoring tools were also included. Outcomes evaluated were postoperative mortality, general and operation-specific morbidity and long-term outcomes.

RESULTS

Twenty-seven studies comprising 20 898 patients undergoing general, gastrointestinal, cardiothoracic, orthopaedic, vascular, urology, endocrine and neurosurgical operations were included. Surgeons consistently overpredicted mortality rates and were outperformed by existing risk scoring tools in six of seven studies comparing area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC). Surgeons' prediction of general morbidity was good, and was equivalent to, or better than, pre-existing risk prediction models. Long-term outcomes were poorly predicted by surgeons, with AUC values ranging from 0·51 to 0·75. Four of five studies found postoperative risk estimates to be more accurate than those made before surgery.

CONCLUSION

Surgeons consistently overestimate mortality risk and are outperformed by pre-existing tools; prediction of longer-term outcomes is also poor. Surgeons should consider the use of risk prediction tools when available to inform clinical decision-making.

Angiosome Specific Revascularisation: Does the Evidence Support It?

OBJECTIVE

To explain the angiosome concept and explore the practical application of the angiosome literature to a clinical scenario, in this case a tibial angioplasty for critical ischaemia.

METHODS

Clinical vignette with explanation of the decisions made and subsequent clinical results based on the theory of the angiosome concept and the literature on angiosomal revascularisation; in this case the results of our group's recent update to a systematic review and meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Endovascular combined or direct angiosomal revascularisation if superior to indirect revascularisation. This was borne out in the clinical scenario, where an indirect peroneal reperfusion of the AT angiosome resulted in major amputation. Open surgery is less dependent on the angiosome concept. The presence of adequate collateralisation into a foot arch seems to be the most important factor predicting success of indirect revascularisation. The evidence for both suffers from selection bias and many of the findings in the literature are wholly due to selection bias.

CONCLUSION

The angiosome concept is useful during both open and endovascular tibial revascularisation. However, the runoff in the foot is critical to success and may not follow the 'classic' angiosome model in diabetes.

The infraclavicular approach for Paget-Schroetter syndrome

Introduction Paget-Schroetter syndrome is a rare effort thrombosis of the axillary-subclavian vein, mainly occurring in young male patients. Current management involves immediate catheter directed thrombolysis, followed by surgical decompression of the subclavian vein. This has been invariably performed using a transaxillary or supraclavicular approach. However, the subclavian vein crosses the first rib anteriorly just behind the manubrium and can also be accessed via an infraclavicular incision. Methods MEDLINE® and Embase™ were searched for all studies on outcomes in patients undergoing infraclavicular first rib resection for treatment of Paget-Schroetter syndrome. Measured outcomes included freedom from reintervention, secondary patency and symptom resolution. Studies on neurogenic, arterial and iatrogenic venous thoracic outlet syndrome were not included. Findings Six studies (involving 268 patients) were eligible. The overall secondary venous patency rate was 98.5%. There was freedom from reintervention in 89.9% of cases and among those patients with reocclusion, 84.0% had chronic thrombosis (symptom duration >14 days), with 76.2% having a venous segment stenosis of >2cm. Only 3 of the 27 patients remained occluded despite reintervention. The infraclavicular approach provides excellent exposure to the subclavian vein and allows reconstruction when required. Moreover, this approach enables complete resection of the extrinsic compression that precipitated the initial thrombotic event, with excellent long-term patency rates. In conclusion, the infraclavicular route may have significant advantages compared with the transaxillary or supraclavicular approaches for successful and durable treatment of Paget-Schroetter syndrome.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the efficacy of perineural local anaesthetic catheters after major lower limb amputation

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to evaluate the effects of using an intraoperatively placed perineural catheter (PNC) with a postoperative local anaesthetic infusion on immediate and long-term outcomes after lower limb amputation.

METHODS

A systematic review of key electronic journal databases was undertaken from inception to January 2015. Studies comparing PNC use with either a control, or no PNC, were included. Meta-analysis was performed for postoperative opioid use, pain scores, mortality, and long-term incidence of stump and phantom limb pain. Sensitivity analysis was performed for opioid use. Quality of evidence was assessed using the GRADE system.

RESULTS

Seven studies reporting on 416 patients undergoing lower limb amputation with PNC usage (n = 199) or not (n = 217) were included. Approximately 60% were transtibial amputations PNC use reduced postoperative opioid consumption (standardised mean difference: -0.59, 95% CI -1.10 to -0.07, p = .03), maintained on sensitivity analysis for large (p = .03) and high-quality (p = .003) studies, but was marginally lost (p = .06) on studies enrolling patients with peripheral arterial disease only. PNC treatment did not affect postoperative pain scores (p = .48), in-hospital mortality (p = .77), phantom limb pain (p = .28) or stump pain (p = .37). GRADE quality of evidence for all outcomes was very low.

CONCLUSION

There is poor-quality evidence that PNC usage significantly reduces opioid consumption following lower limb amputation, without affecting other short- or long-term outcomes. Well-performed randomised studies are required.

Benefits of remote ischaemic preconditioning in vascular surgery

OBJECTIVES

Remote ischaemic preconditioning (RIPC) is a physiological mechanism to protect against ischaemia-reperfusion injury. It is a technique in which short pre-emptive periods of ischaemia and reperfusion are thought to protect against ischaemia-reperfusion injury during procedures requiring longer periods of ischaemia. Discovered in the 1980s, its clinical application has been investigated heavily since the first human study in 2006. The aim of this paper was to provide a review of this rapidly expanding subject.

METHODS

This study consists of a narrative review of the literature focusing on previous meta-analyses and randomised control trials.

RESULTS

Five small randomised trials have been published on the effects of RIPC in vascular surgery. Several randomised trials have been published in cardiac surgery and percutaneous coronary intervention. Meta-analysis shows a significant reduction in troponin levels and biomarkers of renal dysfunction in RIPC patients, but as yet no convincing clinical benefit. The largest powered randomised trial in cardiac surgery showed no benefit to RIPC.

CONCLUSIONS

Current trials and therefore meta-analyses are generally underpowered. The technique is physiologically sound but remains lacking in clear clinical benefit.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of histopathological factors influencing the risk of lymph node metastasis in early colorectal cancer

AIM

Lymph node (LN) metastases are present in up to 17% of early colorectal cancers (pT1). Identification of associated histopathological factors would enable counselling of patients regarding this risk.

METHOD

Pubmed and Embase were employed utilizing the terms 'early colorectal cancer', 'lymph node metastasis', 'submucosal invasion', 'lymphovascular invasion', 'tumour budding' and 'histological differentiation'. Analysis was performed using REVIEW MANAGER 5.1.

RESULTS

Twenty-three cohort studies including 4510 patients were analysed. There was a significantly higher risk of LN metastasis with a depth of submucosal invasion > 1 mm than with lesser degrees of penetration (OR 3.87, 95% CI 1.50-10.00, P = 0.005). Lymphovascular invasion was significantly associated with LN metastasis (OR 4.81, 95% CI 3.14-7.37, P < 0.00001). Poorly differentiated tumours had a higher risk of LN metastasis compared with well or moderately differentiated tumours (OR 5.60, 95% CI 2.90-10.82, P < 0.00001). Tumour budding was found to be significantly associated with LN metastasis (OR 7.74, 95% CI 4.47-13.39, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Meta-analysis of the current literature demonstrates that in early colorectal cancer a depth of submucosal invasion by the primary tumour of > 1 mm, lymphovascular invasion, poor differentiation and tumour budding are significantly associated with LN metastasis.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of vein cuffs for below-knee synthetic bypass

BACKGROUND

The aim was to investigate the possible benefit of vein cuffs for femoral to below-knee popliteal and femorodistal vessel synthetic bypass grafts.

METHODS

PubMed, the Cochrane library, Embase and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched for all studies on any clinical effect of vein cuffs on synthetic grafts. Outcomes were selected based on inclusion in two or more studies: primary patency and limb survival. The data were subjected to meta-analysis by outcome.

RESULTS

Three cohort and two randomized studies were selected for inclusion, involving 885 patients. Meta-analysis of five studies examining below-knee popliteal bypass showed a significant improvement for primary patency in cuffed grafts at 2 years, but not at 1 or 3 years (odds ratio at 2 years 0·46, 95 per cent confidence interval 0·22 to 0·97; P = 0·04). Limb salvage was significantly improved in cuffed grafts up to 2 years. Limb survival was also improved for cuffed distal grafts at 2 years (odds ratio 0·29, 0·11 to 0·75; P = 0·01) but showed no difference at any other time interval. Study quality was generally poor, with conflicting results.

CONCLUSION

There was a small but significant benefit for vein cuffs on synthetic grafts used for femoral to below-knee popliteal anastomoses, but little benefit for femorodistal anastomoses.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the effects of statin therapy on abdominal aortic aneurysms

Background

The aim was to investigate the effects of statin therapy on abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) disease.

Methods

PubMed, the Cochrane Library, Embase and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched for all studies on any clinical effect of statin therapy on AAA. Outcomes were selected based on their inclusion in two or more studies: AAA expansion rate, 30-day mortality, and short- and long-term postoperative mortality. The data were subjected to meta-analysis by outcome.

Results

Twelve cohort studies were selected for inclusion involving 11 933 individuals. Meta-analysis of four studies examining all-cause postoperative mortality showed a significant improvement with statin therapy at 1, 2 and 5 years (odds ratio (OR) at 5 years 0·57, 95 per cent confidence interval (c.i.) 0·42 to 0·79; P &lt; 0·001) with minimal heterogeneity between the four included studies. There was no significant difference in 30-day mortality after AAA treatment in patients on statin therapy (OR 0·22, 0·02 to 2·90; P = 0·25). Sensitivity analysis including four high-quality studies examining AAA expansion rates showed no significant difference with statin therapy: standardized mean difference −0·14 (95 per cent c.i. −0·33 to −0·05) mm/year (P = 0·16).

Conclusion

The claim of a reduction in AAA expansion rate with statin therapy is based on low-quality evidence and was not significant on meta-analysis. However, statin therapy did appear to improve all-cause survival after AAA repair.

Prognostic significance of the endoscopic ultrasound defined lymph node metastasis count in esophageal cancer

The key prognostic factor which predicts outcome after esophagectomy for cancer is the number of malignant lymph node metastases, but data regarding the accuracy of endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) in determining and predicting the metastatic lymph node count preoperatively are limited. The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic significance of EUS defined lymph node metastasis count (eLNMC) in patients diagnosed with esophageal cancer. Two hundred and sixty-seven consecutive patients (median age 63 years, 187 months) underwent specialist EUS followed by stage directed multidisciplinary treatment (183 esophagectomy [64 neoadjuvant chemotherapy, 19 neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy], 79 definitive chemoradiotherapy, and 5 palliative therapy). The eLNMC was subdivided into four groups (0, 1, 2 to 4, >4) and the primary measure of outcome was survival. Survival was related to EUS tumor (T) stage (P < 0.0001), EUS node (N) stage (P < 0.0001), EUS tumor length (p < 0.0001), and eLNMC (P < 0.0001). Multivariable analysis revealed EUS tumor length (hazard ratio [HR] 1.071, 95% CI 1.008-1.138, P= 0.027) and eLNMC (HR 1.302, 95% CI 1.133-1.496, P= 0.0001) to be significantly and independently associated with survival. Median and 2-year survival for patients with 0, 1, 2-4, and >4 lymph node metastases were: 44 months and 71%, 36 months and 59%, 24 months and 50%, and 17 months and 32%, respectively. The total number of EUS defined lymph node metastases was an important and significant prognostic indicator.

Prevalence and outcome of esophagogastric anastomotic leak after esophagectomy in a UK regional cancer network

The aim of this study was to determine the contemporary prevalence, outcome, and survival after esophagogastric anastomotic leakage (EGAL) following esophagectomy by a regional upper gastrointestinal cancer network and to investigate etiological factors. Two hundred forty consecutive patients underwent esophagectomy over a 10-year period (median age 61 [31-79] years, 147 transthoracic and 93 transhiatal esophagectomy, 105 neoadjuvant chemotherapy, 49 chemoradiotherapy). The primary outcome measures were the development of EGAL and survival. Twenty patients developed EGAL (8.3%, 15 managed conservatively, 5 reoperation). Overall operative mortality was 2% (5 patients in total, 1 after EGAL). Median, 1 and 2-year survival was 22 months, 73% and 50%, in patients after EGAL, compared with 31 months, 80% and 56%, in patients who did not suffer EGAL (P= 0.314). On multivariate analysis, low body mass indices (hazard ratio [HR] 0.29, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.11-0.79, P= 0.016), individual surgeon (HR 1.21, 95% CI 1.02-1.43, P= 0.02), and neoadjuvant chemotherapy (HR 3.28, 95% CI 1.16-9.22, P= 0.024) were significantly associated with the development of EGAL. EGAL following esophagectomy remained common, but associated mortality was less common than reported in earlier Western series and long-term survival was unaffected.

Prognostic significance of endoluminal ultrasound defined tumor volume (EDTV) in patients diagnosed with esophageal cancer

e15519

Background: The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic significance of endoluminal ultrasound defined tumour volume (EDTV) in patients diagnosed with esophageal cancer. The hypothesis was that tumour volume is a better predictor of outcome than tumour length. Methods: One hundred and seventy-four consecutive patients (median age 64y, 128 m) underwent both CT and specialist EUS, and the maximum potential tumour cylinder volume (EDTV) was calculated using the formula πr2L (cylinder volume), where r = tumour thickness (cm) and L = total length of disease, including the position and level of both the primary tumour and proximal and distal lymph nodes (cm). All patients received stage directed multidisciplinary treatment [surgery 104 patients (80 neoadjuvant chemotherapy), definitive chemoradiotherapy 54 patients, and palliative therapy alone 16 patients]. The primary measure of outcome was survival. Results: Survival was related to EUS T (p=0.013), EUS N (p=0.001), EUS M1a stage (p=0.004), EUS disease length (p=0.001), and EDTV (all patients <25cm3, p=0.001, surgical patients <40cm3, p=0.036). Forward conditional multivariate analysis revealed 3 factors to be associated with survival; EUS N stage (HR= 1.646, 95% CI 1.041 to 2.602, p=0.033), EUS M1a stage (HR= 2.702, 95% CI 1.069 to 6.830, p=0.036), and EDTV (HR= 2.702, 95% CI 1.069 to 6.830, p=0.025). Conclusions: EDTV emerged as a new and important prognostic indicator for patients diagnosed with esophageal cancer.

No significant financial relationships to disclose.

Prognostic significance of the endoluminal ultrasound defined lymph node metastasis count in esophageal cancer

4558

Background: TNM histopathological staging system for esophageal cancer is controversial, and will soon be revised to account for the relative burden of the number of lymph node metastases. The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic significance of endoluminal ultrasound (EUS) defined lymph node metastasis count (eLNMC) in patients with esophageal cancer. Methods: Two hundred and sixty-seven consecutive patients (median age 63 yr, 187 m) underwent EUS followed by stage directed multidisciplinary treatment [183 esophagectomy (92 neoadjuvant chemotherapy), 79 definitive chemoradiotherapy, and 5 palliative therapy]. The eLMNC was subdivided into four groups (0, 1, 2 to 4, >4) and the primary measure of outcome was survival. Results: Survival was related to EUS T stage (p<0.0001), EUS N stage (p<0.0001), EUS tumour length (p<0.0001), and the eLNMC (p<0.0001). Multivariable analysis revealed EUS tumour length (HR 1.071, 95% CI 1.008 to 1.138, p=0.027) and eLNMC (HR 1.302, 95% CI 1.133 to 1.496, p<0.0001) to be significantly and independently associated with survival. Median and 2 year survival for patients with 0, 1, 2 to 4, and >4 lymph node metastases were: 44 months and 71%; 36 months and 59%; 24 months and 50%; and 17 months and 32% respectively. Conclusions: The eLNMC was an important and significant prognostic indicator in patients with esophageal cancer, which should in future be reported and used to revise the perceived radiological stage, in order to inform stage directed multimodal therapy.

No significant financial relationships to disclose.

Prognostic significance of failure to cross esophageal tumors by endoluminal ultrasound

Failure to intubate and cross esophageal tumors by endosonography is reported in as many as 30% of cases and is thought to be associated with an especially poor prognosis. The aim of this study was to audit the above in a large consecutive case series of Endoscopic Ultrasound (EUS) examinations for esophageal cancer performed in a regional specialist cancer network with particular reference to outcome. A consecutive series of 411 patients underwent EUS examination by a specialist radiologist over a period of 9 years. Forty (10%) of patients required dilation, and there was total failure to cross the tumor in 12 patients (2.9%). Failure to traverse the primary tumor was associated with a diagnosis of squamous cell cancer (8 of 12 patients, 66%, rho = -0.182, P = 0.011). Limited staging information was obtained in 7 of these patients, which altered the computed tomography stage in 5 patients (71%, 3 upstaged, 2 downstaged). Six patients received definitive chemoradiotherapy, two patients surgery and four patients palliative chemotherapy. The median and 5-year survival in patients whose tumors were not crossed was 10 months and 28%, respectively, compared with 24 months and 24%, respectively in patients whose tumors were fully assessed. Failure to cross esophageal tumors in practice was far less common than the literature suggests, and esophageal tumor luminal stenosis should no longer be considered a limitation of endosonography.

Antibiotic prescription for patients referred to a specialist breast clinic

Hospital referral is indicated as an emergency for breast infections not settling with oral antibiotics. Referrals to a breast clinic over a period of 6 months were assessed for prior antibiotic prescription. A total of 1078 patients were seen during this period. 91 (8%) patients had been prescribed antibiotics, 71% of which had been prescribed for non-infective conditions. Of those patients treated for infection, 42% had the wrong antibiotic prescribed. The final diagnoses for patients inappropriately prescribed antibiotics were chest wall pain in 23% and duct ectasia in 14%. Although the reasons for prescription of antibiotics are mutifactorial, careful examination of the patient will diagnose chest wall pain. Delayed prescribing may be appropriate for some patients.

Kylie Minogue's breast cancer: effects on referrals to a rapid access breast clinic in the UK

We examine the effect of the announcement of Kylie's breast cancer on referrals to a rapid access breast clinic in the United Kingdom. General practitioner referrals were examined, concentrating on June 2005; the month following Kylie's diagnosis. Time series analysis with autoregressive integrated moving average modeling was used to forecast data. There was a significant increase in referrals and radiographic investigations, with no increase in the number of malignant diagnoses. It is encouraging that media campaigns appear to make women more 'breast aware;' however there may also be a detrimental effect with increased radiation exposure, anxiety and cancer phobia.