Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.

COVID-19 length of hospital stay: a systematic review and data synthesis

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has placed an unprecedented strain on health systems, with rapidly increasing demand for healthcare in hospitals and intensive care units (ICUs) worldwide. As the pandemic escalates, determining the resulting needs for healthcare resources (beds, staff, equipment) has become a key priority for many countries. Projecting future demand requires estimates of how long patients with COVID-19 need different levels of hospital care.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review of early evidence on length of stay (LoS) of patients with COVID-19 in hospital and in ICU. We subsequently developed a method to generate LoS distributions which combines summary statistics reported in multiple studies, accounting for differences in sample sizes. Applying this approach, we provide distributions for total hospital and ICU LoS from studies in China and elsewhere, for use by the community.

RESULTS

We identified 52 studies, the majority from China (46/52). Median hospital LoS ranged from 4 to 53 days within China, and 4 to 21 days outside of China, across 45 studies. ICU LoS was reported by eight studies-four each within and outside China-with median values ranging from 6 to 12 and 4 to 19 days, respectively. Our summary distributions have a median hospital LoS of 14 (IQR 10-19) days for China, compared with 5 (IQR 3-9) days outside of China. For ICU, the summary distributions are more similar (median (IQR) of 8 (5-13) days for China and 7 (4-11) days outside of China). There was a visible difference by discharge status, with patients who were discharged alive having longer LoS than those who died during their admission, but no trend associated with study date.

CONCLUSION

Patients with COVID-19 in China appeared to remain in hospital for longer than elsewhere. This may be explained by differences in criteria for admission and discharge between countries, and different timing within the pandemic. In the absence of local data, the combined summary LoS distributions provided here can be used to model bed demands for contingency planning and then updated, with the novel method presented here, as more studies with aggregated statistics emerge outside China.

Observation of electron-antineutrino disappearance at Daya Bay

The Daya Bay Reactor Neutrino Experiment has measured a nonzero value for the neutrino mixing angle θ(13) with a significance of 5.2 standard deviations. Antineutrinos from six 2.9 GWth reactors were detected in six antineutrino detectors deployed in two near (flux-weighted baseline 470 m and 576 m) and one far (1648 m) underground experimental halls. With a 43,000 ton-GWth-day live-time exposure in 55 days, 10,416 (80,376) electron-antineutrino candidates were detected at the far hall (near halls). The ratio of the observed to expected number of antineutrinos at the far hall is R=0.940±0.011(stat.)±0.004(syst.). A rate-only analysis finds sin(2)2θ(13)=0.092±0.016(stat.)±0.005(syst.) in a three-neutrino framework.

Polymorphisms of human SP-A, SP-B, and SP-D genes: association of SP-B Thr131Ile with ARDS

An allele association study of 19 polymorphisms in surfactant proteins SP-A1, SP-A2, SP-B, and SP-D genes in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) was carried out. Trend-test analysis revealed differences (p < 0.05) in the frequency of alleles for some of the microsatellite markers flanking SP-B, and for one polymorphism (C/T) at nucleotide 1580 [C/T (1580)], within codon 131 (Thr131Ile) of the SP-B gene. The latter determines the presence or absence of a potential N-linked glycosylation site. Multivariate analysis revealed significant differences only for the C/T (1580) polymorphism. When the ARDS population was divided into subgroups, idiopathic (i.e., pneumonia, etc.) or exogenic (i.e., trauma, etc.), significant differences were observed for the C/T (1580), for the idiopathic ARDS group, and the frequency of the C/C genotype was increased in this group. Based on the odds ratio, the C allele may be viewed as a susceptibility factor for ARDS. Although the expression of both C and T alleles occurs in heterozygous individuals, it is currently not known whether these alleles correspond to similar levels of SP-B protein. These data suggest that SP-B or a linked gene contributes to susceptibility to ARDS.

Estimating the time-varying reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 using national and subnational case counts

Background: Interventions are now in place worldwide to reduce transmission of the novel coronavirus. Assessing temporal variations in transmission in different countries is essential for evaluating the effectiveness of public health interventions and the impact of changes in policy. Methods: We use case notification data to generate daily estimates of the time-dependent reproduction number in different regions and countries. Our modelling framework, based on open source tooling, accounts for reporting delays, so that temporal variations in reproduction number estimates can be compared directly with the times at which interventions are implemented. Results: We provide three example uses of our framework. First, we demonstrate how the toolset displays temporal changes in the reproduction number. Second, we show how the framework can be used to reconstruct case counts by date of infection from case counts by date of notification, as well as to estimate the reproduction number. Third, we show how maps can be generated to clearly show if case numbers are likely to decrease or increase in different regions. Results are shown for regions and countries worldwide on our website (https://epiforecasts.io/covid/) and are updated daily. Our tooling is provided as an open-source R package to allow replication by others. Conclusions: This decision-support tool can be used to assess changes in virus transmission in different regions and countries worldwide. This allows policymakers to assess the effectiveness of current interventions, and will be useful for inferring whether or not transmission will increase when interventions are lifted. As well as providing daily updates on our website, we also provide adaptable computing code so that our approach can be used directly by researchers and policymakers on confidential datasets. We hope that our tool will be used to support decisions in countries worldwide throughout the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Reconstructing the early global dynamics of under-ascertained COVID-19 cases and infections

BACKGROUND

Asymptomatic or subclinical SARS-CoV-2 infections are often unreported, which means that confirmed case counts may not accurately reflect underlying epidemic dynamics. Understanding the level of ascertainment (the ratio of confirmed symptomatic cases to the true number of symptomatic individuals) and undetected epidemic progression is crucial to informing COVID-19 response planning, including the introduction and relaxation of control measures. Estimating case ascertainment over time allows for accurate estimates of specific outcomes such as seroprevalence, which is essential for planning control measures.

METHODS

Using reported data on COVID-19 cases and fatalities globally, we estimated the proportion of symptomatic cases (i.e. any person with any of fever ≥ 37.5 °C, cough, shortness of breath, sudden onset of anosmia, ageusia or dysgeusia illness) that were reported in 210 countries and territories, given those countries had experienced more than ten deaths. We used published estimates of the baseline case fatality ratio (CFR), which was adjusted for delays and under-ascertainment, then calculated the ratio of this baseline CFR to an estimated local delay-adjusted CFR to estimate the level of under-ascertainment in a particular location. We then fit a Bayesian Gaussian process model to estimate the temporal pattern of under-ascertainment.

RESULTS

Based on reported cases and deaths, we estimated that, during March 2020, the median percentage of symptomatic cases detected across the 84 countries which experienced more than ten deaths ranged from 2.4% (Bangladesh) to 100% (Chile). Across the ten countries with the highest number of total confirmed cases as of 6 July 2020, we estimated that the peak number of symptomatic cases ranged from 1.4 times (Chile) to 18 times (France) larger than reported. Comparing our model with national and regional seroprevalence data where available, we find that our estimates are consistent with observed values. Finally, we estimated seroprevalence for each country. As of 7 June, our seroprevalence estimates range from 0% (many countries) to 13% (95% CrI 5.6-24%) (Belgium).

CONCLUSIONS

We found substantial under-ascertainment of symptomatic cases, particularly at the peak of the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, in many countries. Reported case counts will therefore likely underestimate the rate of outbreak growth initially and underestimate the decline in the later stages of an epidemic. Although there was considerable under-reporting in many locations, our estimates were consistent with emerging serological data, suggesting that the proportion of each country's population infected with SARS-CoV-2 worldwide is generally low.

CD34 positive PBPC expanded ex vivo may not provide durable engraftment following myeloablative chemoradiotherapy regimens

We have previously demonstrated that CD34+ cells, selected from peripheral blood progenitor cells (PBPC), can be expanded in ex vivo culture and can be infused in tandem with unmanipulated PBPC with little or no toxicity. In this study, four patients (two non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL), two multiple myeloma (MM)) received myeloablative conditioning prior to stem cell rescue using ex vivo expanded cells alone. The two patients with NHL received cyclophosphamide and total body irradiation (CY/TBI) and the two patients with MM, busulphan and melphalan (Bu/M). One case received an inadequate CFU-GM dose, despite expansion, and in one case the expanded cells were contaminated. No definitive conclusions may therefore be drawn concerning engraftment in these two cases. However, the other two cases received high doses of committed progenitors. Following infusion of the expanded material, all four patients failed to show sustained neutrophil engraftment and none showed evidence of platelet engraftment. Back-up, unmanipulated PBPC were therefore infused on days 14, 34, 32 and 28 and subsequently all four cases achieved satisfactory engraftment of both neutrophils and platelets. In conclusion, we feel that, CD34+ cells, expanded ex vivo using the conditions described in this report, may not provide durable engraftment following fully myeloablative conditioning.

Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.

CD34-positive cells isolated from cryopreserved peripheral-blood progenitor cells can be expanded ex vivo and used for transplantation with little or no toxicity

PURPOSE

The objectives of this phase I study were to assess the feasibility of using cryopreserved peripheral-blood progenitor cells (PBPC) for large-scale CD34 selection and subsequent expansion, and the safety of their use for reinfusion following chemoradiotherapy.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

For 10 patients with nonmyeloid malignancy, an aliquot from a PBPC harvest was recovered from liquid nitrogen, and CD34 selected using the Isolex system (Baxter Healthcare, Newbury, United Kingdom) and expanded for 8 days ex vivo in a medium free of animal proteins but supplemented with autologous serum, stemcell factor (SCF), interleukin-1 beta (IL-1 beta), IL-3, IL-6, and erythropoietin.

RESULTS

The mean increase for cell number was 21-fold, for colony-forming units-granulocyte/macrophage (CFU-GM) 139-fold, and for burst-forming units-erythroid (BFU-E) 114-fold. The expanded cells were reinfused in tandem with unmanipulated material (> or = 25 x 10(4) CFU-GM/kg). The patients did not experience any adverse effects immediately on cell infusion or within 48 hours. The 10 index patients were compared with 10 historical controls for parameters of myelosuppressive morbidity. In this small study, there were no differences in either neutrophil or platelet recovery between the patients who received expanded cells and historical controls.

CONCLUSION

These data demonstrate that CD34 cells can successfully be selected from cryopreserved material, expanded ex vivo on a large scale, and safely reinfused following myeloablative conditioning regimens.

Estimating the time-varying reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 using national and subnational case counts

Background: Assessing temporal variations in transmission in different countries is essential for monitoring the epidemic, evaluating the effectiveness of public health interventions and estimating the impact of changes in policy. Methods: We use case and death notification data to generate daily estimates of the time-varying reproduction number globally, regionally, nationally, and subnationally over a 12-week rolling window. Our modelling framework, based on open source tooling, accounts for uncertainty in reporting delays, so that the reproduction number is estimated based on underlying latent infections. Results: Estimates of the reproduction number, trajectories of infections, and forecasts are displayed on a dedicated website as both maps and time series, and made available to download in tabular form. Conclusions:  This decision-support tool can be used to assess changes in virus transmission both globally, regionally, nationally, and subnationally. This allows public health officials and policymakers to track the progress of the outbreak in near real-time using an epidemiologically valid measure. As well as providing regular updates on our website, we also provide an open source tool-set so that our approach can be used directly by researchers and policymakers on confidential data-sets. We hope that our tool will be used to support decisions in countries worldwide throughout the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies

Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) were introduced worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement exit strategies that relax restrictions while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute 'Models for an exit strategy' workshop (11-15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, would allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. This roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policymakers, and has three parts: (i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; (ii) understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; and (iii) focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in low-to-middle-income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health.

Heavy-tailed sexual contact networks and monkeypox epidemiology in the global outbreak, 2022

The outbreak of monkeypox across non-endemic regions confirmed in May 2022 shows epidemiological features distinct from previously imported outbreaks, most notably its observed growth and predominance amongst men who have sex with men (MSM). We use a transmission model fitted to empirical sexual partnership data to show that the heavy-tailed sexual partnership distribution, in which a handful of individuals have disproportionately many partners, can explain the sustained growth of monkeypox among MSM despite the absence of such patterns previously. We suggest that the basic reproduction number (R0) for monkeypox over the MSM sexual network may be substantially above 1, which poses challenges to outbreak containment. Ensuring support and tailored messaging to facilitate prevention and early detection among MSM with high numbers of partners is warranted.

Long-term effects of sexual abuse which occurred in childhood: a review

The psychological problems and difficulties experienced by adults who report having been sexually abused in childhood are reviewed. These long-term effects include damage to the victims' emotional reactions and self-perceptions, relationship problems, problems with sexuality and difficulties in social functioning. Common presenting problems of victims of childhood sexual abuse (CSA) are described. Also discussed are the characteristics of incestuous abuse in terms of the victim, the abusive relationship and its termination; the contributions of the various aspects of CSA to the psychological impact of such abuse; and psychodynamic explanations of the development of long-term effects. The bulk of the published material regarding the long-term effects of CSA refers to female victims only, and this 'bias' is reflected in the review.

Gene-vitamin D interactions on food sensitization: a prospective birth cohort study

BACKGROUND

It has been hypothesized that vitamin D deficiency (VDD) contributes to the development of food sensitization (FS) and then food allergy. However, the epidemiological evidence is conflicting. We aim to examine whether cord blood VDD is associated with FS and whether such association can be modified by genetic variants in a prospective birth cohort.

METHODS

This study included 649 children who were enrolled at birth and followed from birth onward at the Boston Medical Center. We defined VDD as cord blood 25(OH)D < 11 ng/ml, and FS as specific IgE ≥ 0.35 kUA/l to any of eight common food allergens in early childhood. We genotyped potentially functional single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 11 genes known to be involved in regulating IgE and 25(OH)D concentrations. Logistic regressions were used to test the effects of VDD on FS individually and jointly with SNPs.

RESULTS

Among the 649 children, 44% had VDD and 37% had FS. When examined alone, VDD was not associated with FS. When examined jointly with SNPs, a significant interaction between IL4 gene polymorphism (rs2243250) and VDD (p(interaction) = 0.003, p(FDR) = 0.10) was found: VDD increased the risk of FS among children carrying CC/CT genotypes (OR = 1.79, 95%CI: 1.15-2.77). Similar but weaker interactions were observed for SNPs in MS4A2 (rs512555), FCER1G (rs2070901), and CYP24A1 (rs2762934). When all four SNPs were simultaneously considered, a strong gene-VDD interaction was evident (p(interaction) = 9 × 10(-6) ).

CONCLUSIONS

Our data demonstrate that VDD may increase the risk of FS among individuals with certain genotypes, providing evidence of gene-vitamin D interaction on FS.

Cigar risk perceptions in focus groups of urban African American youth

PURPOSE

To explore cigar use perceptions among urban African American youth.

METHODS

A convenience sample (n = 50) of African American volunteer participants, ages 14- 18, participated in six audiotaped focus groups conducted in two California cities. Transcriptions were analyzed using iterative strategies.

RESULTS

Most youth believed cigars were harmful to health, yet a disjuncture existed between this abstract belief and the socially embedded understandings revealed in discussions. Some youth felt that cigars were more "natural" and therefore less harmful than cigarettes. For some, that understanding rested on a mistaken assumption that nicotine was an artificial additive not present in cigars. Youth had received little cigar-specific health education. They reported that cigars were easily obtained, noted cigars' social cachet, and drew attention to new brands targeting youth.

IMPLICATIONS

Perceptions of risk are not merely interesting "subjective" findings but are important determinants of actual use patterns and may not correlate with abstract beliefs. Recent cigarette brand repositionings, such as Winston's "no additives" campaign, have widely publicized the many substances added to cigarettes. Some youth may take lack of cigar-specific preventive education as an indication that cigars do not contain such substances, including nicotine. Misperceptions about risks of cigar and cigar/marijuana smoking must be addressed through consistent, coordinated, and comprehensive tobacco control efforts for all tobacco products.

Nicotinic receptor distribution in the human thalamus: autoradiographical localization of [3H]nicotine and [125I] alpha-bungarotoxin binding

The thalamus plays a major role in relaying and transforming information that is relayed to the cortex and in turn modulates cortical outputs. The reticular nucleus projects to the other thalamic nuclei, modulating and integrating their activity. The distribution of high affinity nicotine and alpha-bungarotoxin (alpha BTX) receptors in the human thalamus has been investigated by radioligand autoradiography in post mortem human tissue. [3H]nicotine binding in the human thalamus was high in most thalamic nuclei, especially in the lateral dorsal, the medial geniculate, lateral geniculate and anterior nuclei. The distribution of [125I] alpha BTX binding was quite distinct from [3H]nicotine binding. [125I] alpha BTX binding was generally lower (< 0.26-11.62 fmol/mg protein compared with 6.68-36.17 fmol/mg protein for nicotine binding) and concentrated in the reticular nucleus, with discrete groups of cells displaying higher binding in the latter. These results indicate differences between the distribution of nicotinic receptors in humans and those previously reported in mice and monkeys. Changes in high affinity nicotine and alpha BTX receptors in the thalamus may contribute to symptoms observed in neuropathological conditions associated with disorders of perception and movement such as Dementia with Lewy Bodies, Alzheimer's Disease and Schizophrenia.

Statistical power and validity of Ebola vaccine trials in Sierra Leone: a simulation study of trial design and analysis

BACKGROUND

Safe and effective vaccines could help to end the ongoing Ebola virus disease epidemic in parts of west Africa, and mitigate future outbreaks of the virus. We assess the statistical validity and power of randomised controlled trial (RCT) and stepped-wedge cluster trial (SWCT) designs in Sierra Leone, where the incidence of Ebola virus disease is spatiotemporally heterogeneous, and is decreasing rapidly.

METHODS

We projected district-level Ebola virus disease incidence for the next 6 months, using a stochastic model fitted to data from Sierra Leone. We then simulated RCT and SWCT designs in trial populations comprising geographically distinct clusters at high risk, taking into account realistic logistical constraints, and both individual-level and cluster-level variations in risk. We assessed false-positive rates and power for parametric and non-parametric analyses of simulated trial data, across a range of vaccine efficacies and trial start dates.

FINDINGS

For an SWCT, regional variation in Ebola virus disease incidence trends produced increased false-positive rates (up to 0·15 at α=0·05) under standard statistical models, but not when analysed by a permutation test, whereas analyses of RCTs remained statistically valid under all models. With the assumption of a 6-month trial starting on Feb 18, 2015, we estimate the power to detect a 90% effective vaccine to be between 49% and 89% for an RCT, and between 6% and 26% for an SWCT, depending on the Ebola virus disease incidence within the trial population. We estimate that a 1-month delay in trial initiation will reduce the power of the RCT by 20% and that of the SWCT by 49%.

INTERPRETATION

Spatiotemporal variation in infection risk undermines the statistical power of the SWCT. This variation also undercuts the SWCT's expected ethical advantages over the RCT, because an RCT, but not an SWCT, can prioritise vaccination of high-risk clusters.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health, US National Science Foundation, and Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Changing travel patterns in China during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic

Understanding changes in human mobility in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic is crucial for assessing the impacts of travel restrictions designed to reduce disease spread. Here, relying on data from mainland China, we investigate the spatio-temporal characteristics of human mobility between 1st January and 1st March 2020, and discuss their public health implications. An outbound travel surge from Wuhan before travel restrictions were implemented was also observed across China due to the Lunar New Year, indicating that holiday travel may have played a larger role in mobility changes compared to impending travel restrictions. Holiday travel also shifted healthcare pressure related to COVID-19 towards locations with lower healthcare capacity. Network analyses showed no sign of major changes in the transportation network after Lunar New Year. Changes observed were temporary and did not lead to structural reorganisation of the transportation network during the study period.

The effect of lithium therapy on parameters thought to be involved in the development of autoimmune thyroid disease

This study has considered the effects of primary affective disorders and lithium therapy on a number of factors thought to be important in the development of autoimmune thyroid disease. These factors were examined in (a) controls with no history of any such disorders; (b) patients with primary affective disorders treated with drugs other than lithium and (c) patients with primary affective disorders treated with lithium alone. Eight of 40 patients who were receiving lithium therapy were found to be positive for thyroid microsomal and/or thyroglobulin antibodies, compared to only 3/40 patients who were receiving some other form of treatment for their depression. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells from patients receiving lithium were found to have significantly reduced numbers of suppressor/cytotoxic T cells (P less than 0.05). In addition, suppressor T cells from these patients showed a significantly reduced response to stimulation with concanavalin A (P less than 0.01). These effects were greatest in patients found to be antibody positive. Increased B cell activity, as measured by increased IgG and IgM release following mitogen stimulation, was seen in patients receiving lithium and in those patients receiving other forms of treatment for their depression. This would suggest that the increase is a feature of primary affective disorders and is not due specifically to lithium treatment. It would appear from this study that lithium therapy induces antibody formation in susceptible individuals and this may ultimately lead to the development of thyroid disease.

Recurrent miscarriage is associated with increased numbers of CD5/20 positive lymphocytes and an increased incidence of thyroid antibodies

The aim of this study was to determine whether recurrent miscarriage (three or more miscarriages, no live children) was associated with an increased incidence of autoantibodies. Five groups were enrolled into the study; healthy non-pregnant women, healthy first-trimester pregnant women, women suffering spontaneous abortion, those undergoing termination of pregnancy and those with a previous history of miscarriage. The number of total B cells and the numbers of the antibody producing B cell subset CD5+/CD20+ were determined for each group. Samples were tested for anticardiolipin antibodies, antinuclear antibodies and thyroid microsomal and thyroglobulin antibodies. The results showed that compared to normal pregnancy or spontaneous abortion, recurrent miscarriage was associated with a significant increase in the number of CD5+/20+ positive cells (0.8 +/- 0.3 vs 0.5 +/- 0.1 vs 1.1 +/- 0.3 x 10(8)/l; p < 0.001). These women were also found to have a higher incidence of thyroid antibodies, with four out of the 11 patients being positive for thyroid microsomal antibodies. These results suggest that there may be an association between autoimmunity and recurrent miscarriage.

Response strategies for COVID-19 epidemics in African settings: a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

The health impact of COVID-19 may differ in African settings as compared to countries in Europe or China due to demographic, epidemiological, environmental and socio-economic factors. We evaluated strategies to reduce SARS-CoV-2 burden in African countries, so as to support decisions that balance minimising mortality, protecting health services and safeguarding livelihoods.

METHODS

We used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered mathematical model, stratified by age, to predict the evolution of COVID-19 epidemics in three countries representing a range of age distributions in Africa (from oldest to youngest average age: Mauritius, Nigeria and Niger), under various effectiveness assumptions for combinations of different non-pharmaceutical interventions: self-isolation of symptomatic people, physical distancing and 'shielding' (physical isolation) of the high-risk population. We adapted model parameters to better represent uncertainty about what might be expected in African populations, in particular by shifting the distribution of severity risk towards younger ages and increasing the case-fatality ratio. We also present sensitivity analyses for key model parameters subject to uncertainty.

RESULTS

We predicted median symptomatic attack rates over the first 12 months of 23% (Niger) to 42% (Mauritius), peaking at 2-4 months, if epidemics were unmitigated. Self-isolation while symptomatic had a maximum impact of about 30% on reducing severe cases, while the impact of physical distancing varied widely depending on percent contact reduction and R0. The effect of shielding high-risk people, e.g. by rehousing them in physical isolation, was sensitive mainly to residual contact with low-risk people, and to a lesser extent to contact among shielded individuals. Mitigation strategies incorporating self-isolation of symptomatic individuals, moderate physical distancing and high uptake of shielding reduced predicted peak bed demand and mortality by around 50%. Lockdowns delayed epidemics by about 3 months. Estimates were sensitive to differences in age-specific social mixing patterns, as published in the literature, and assumptions on transmissibility, infectiousness of asymptomatic cases and risk of severe disease or death by age.

CONCLUSIONS

In African settings, as elsewhere, current evidence suggests large COVID-19 epidemics are expected. However, African countries have fewer means to suppress transmission and manage cases. We found that self-isolation of symptomatic persons and general physical distancing are unlikely to avert very large epidemics, unless distancing takes the form of stringent lockdown measures. However, both interventions help to mitigate the epidemic. Shielding of high-risk individuals can reduce health service demand and, even more markedly, mortality if it features high uptake and low contact of shielded and unshielded people, with no increase in contact among shielded people. Strategies combining self-isolation, moderate physical distancing and shielding could achieve substantial reductions in mortality in African countries. Temporary lockdowns, where socioeconomically acceptable, can help gain crucial time for planning and expanding health service capacity.

Indomethacin serum concentrations in man. Effects of dosage, food, and antacid

In the use of anti-inflammatory compounds, sustained serum levels are thought to be related to drug efficacy. This study shows that frequent clinical administration of indomethacin can result in sustained serum levels of the drug and that food and antacid may have important modifying effects on serum indomethacin concentrations. After oral ingestion by fasting subjects, indomethacin rapidly appeared in the serum, usually reaching peak concentrations in 30 to 90 minutes. Food delayed and decreased the mean peak level; antacid delayed the peak and slightly enhanced subsequent concentrations. With multiple dose schedules plateau levels were reached after 24 hours. When a total daily dose of 150 mg was given as 25 mg every 4 hours peak concentrations were the same but fluctuations were smaller and average concentrations were higher than with a dosage of 50 mg every 8 hours.

Forecasting the effectiveness of indoor residual spraying for reducing dengue burden

BACKGROUND

Historically, mosquito control programs successfully helped contain malaria and yellow fever, but recent efforts have been unable to halt the spread of dengue, chikungunya, or Zika, all transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. Using a dengue transmission model and results from indoor residual spraying (IRS) field experiments, we investigated how IRS-like campaign scenarios could effectively control dengue in an endemic setting.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

In our model, we found that high levels of household coverage (75% treated once per year), applied proactively before the typical dengue season could reduce symptomatic infections by 89.7% (median of 1000 simulations; interquartile range [IQR]:[83.0%, 94.8%]) in year one and 78.2% (IQR: [71.2%, 88.0%]) cumulatively over the first five years of an annual program. Lower coverage had correspondingly lower effectiveness, as did reactive campaigns. Though less effective than preventative campaigns, reactive and even post-epidemic interventions retain some effectiveness; these campaigns disrupt inter-seasonal transmission, highlighting an off-season control opportunity. Regardless, none of the campaign scenarios maintain their initial effectiveness beyond two seasons, instead stabilizing at much lower levels of benefit: in year 20, median effectiveness was only 27.3% (IQR: [-21.3%, 56.6%]). Furthermore, simply ceasing an initially successful program exposes a population with lowered herd immunity to the same historical threat, and we observed outbreaks more than four-fold larger than pre-intervention outbreaks. These results do not take into account evolving insecticide resistance, thus long-term effectiveness may be lower if new, efficacious insecticides are not developed.

CONCLUSIONS

Using a detailed agent-based dengue transmission model for Yucatán State, Mexico, we predict that high coverage indoor residual spraying (IRS) interventions can largely eliminate transmission for a few years, when applied a few months before the typical seasonal epidemic peak. However, vector control succeeds by preventing infections, which precludes natural immunization. Thus, as a population benefits from mosquito control, it gradually loses naturally acquired herd immunity, and the control effectiveness declines; this occurs across all of our modeled scenarios, and is consistent with other empirical work. Long term control that maintains early effectiveness would require some combination of increasing investment, complementary interventions such as vaccination, and control programs across a broad region to diminish risk of importation.

Projected Impact of Dengue Vaccination in Yucatán, Mexico

Dengue vaccines will soon provide a new tool for reducing dengue disease, but the effectiveness of widespread vaccination campaigns has not yet been determined. We developed an agent-based dengue model representing movement of and transmission dynamics among people and mosquitoes in Yucatán, Mexico, and simulated various vaccine scenarios to evaluate effectiveness under those conditions. This model includes detailed spatial representation of the Yucatán population, including the location and movement of 1.8 million people between 375,000 households and 100,000 workplaces and schools. Where possible, we designed the model to use data sources with international coverage, to simplify re-parameterization for other regions. The simulation and analysis integrate 35 years of mild and severe case data (including dengue serotype when available), results of a seroprevalence survey, satellite imagery, and climatological, census, and economic data. To fit model parameters that are not directly informed by available data, such as disease reporting rates and dengue transmission parameters, we developed a parameter estimation toolkit called AbcSmc, which we have made publicly available. After fitting the simulation model to dengue case data, we forecasted transmission and assessed the relative effectiveness of several vaccination strategies over a 20 year period. Vaccine efficacy is based on phase III trial results for the Sanofi-Pasteur vaccine, Dengvaxia. We consider routine vaccination of 2, 9, or 16 year-olds, with and without a one-time catch-up campaign to age 30. Because the durability of Dengvaxia is not yet established, we consider hypothetical vaccines that confer either durable or waning immunity, and we evaluate the use of booster doses to counter waning. We find that plausible vaccination scenarios with a durable vaccine reduce annual dengue incidence by as much as 80% within five years. However, if vaccine efficacy wanes after administration, we find that there can be years with larger epidemics than would occur without any vaccination, and that vaccine booster doses are necessary to prevent this outcome.

Dengue is a mosquito-transmitted viral disease that is common throughout the tropics. Despite a long history in humans and extensive efforts to control dengue transmission in many countries, the number, severity, and geographic range of reported cases is increasing. Most control efforts have focused on controlling mosquito populations, but the main vector, Aedes aegypti, flourishes in human-disturbed and indoor environments. Because the mosquitoes prefer to bite during the day when people are active and potentially moving around high-risk locations, fixed barriers like bed nets are not effective. Several dengue vaccines are being actively developed and may become valuable tools in dengue control. Using historical dengue data from Yucatán, Mexico, we fit a detailed simulation of human and mosquito populations to project future transmission, then used efficacy data from vaccine trials to evaluate the benefit of potential vaccination deployment strategies in the region. For a durable vaccine, we find that population-level, annual vaccine effectiveness approaches 65% by the end of the 20-year forecast period. For waning vaccines, however, effectiveness is greatly reduced–and sometimes negative–unless booster vaccinations are used.