Evaluation of a Genetic Risk Score to Improve Risk Prediction for Alzheimer's Disease

Effective prevention of Alzheimer's disease (AD) requires the development of risk prediction tools permitting preclinical intervention. We constructed a genetic risk score (GRS) comprising common genetic variants associated with AD, evaluated its association with incident AD and assessed its capacity to improve risk prediction over traditional models based on age, sex, education, and APOEɛ4. In eight prospective cohorts included in the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project (IGAP), we derived weighted sum of risk alleles from the 19 top SNPs reported by the IGAP GWAS in participants aged 65 and older without prevalent dementia. Hazard ratios (HR) of incident AD were estimated in Cox models. Improvement in risk prediction was measured by the difference in C-index (Δ-C), the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI>0). Overall, 19,687 participants at risk were included, of whom 2,782 developed AD. The GRS was associated with a 17% increase in AD risk (pooled HR = 1.17; 95% CI =   [1.13-1.21] per standard deviation increase in GRS; p-value =  2.86×10-16). This association was stronger among persons with at least one APOEɛ4 allele (HRGRS = 1.24; 95% CI =   [1.15-1.34]) than in others (HRGRS = 1.13; 95% CI =   [1.08-1.18]; pinteraction = 3.45×10-2). Risk prediction after seven years of follow-up showed a small improvement when adding the GRS to age, sex, APOEɛ4, and education (Δ-Cindex =  0.0043 [0.0019-0.0067]). Similar patterns were observed for IDI and NRI>0. In conclusion, a risk score incorporating common genetic variation outside the APOEɛ4 locus improved AD risk prediction and may facilitate risk stratification for prevention trials.

Intensity of human prion disease surveillance predicts observed disease incidence

BACKGROUND

Prospective national screening and surveillance programmes serve a range of public health functions. Objectively determining their adequacy and impact on disease may be problematic for rare disorders. We undertook to assess whether objective measures of disease surveillance intensity could be developed for the rare disorder sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) and whether such measures correlate with disease incidence.

METHOD

From 10 countries with national human prion disease surveillance centres, the annual number of suspected prion disease cases notified to each national unit (n=17,610), referrals for cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) 14-3-3 protein diagnostic testing (n=28,780) and the number of suspect cases undergoing diagnostic neuropathological examination (n=4885) from 1993 to 2006 were collected. Age and survey year adjusted incidence rate ratios with 95% CIs were estimated using Poisson regression models to assess risk factors for sporadic, non-sporadic and all prion disease cases.

RESULTS

Age and survey year adjusted analysis showed all three surveillance intensity measures (suspected human prion disease notifications, 14-3-3 protein diagnostic test referrals and neuropathological examinations of suspect cases) significantly predicted the incidence of sporadic CJD, non-sporadic CJD and all prion disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Routine national surveillance methods adjusted as population rates allow objective determination of surveillance intensity, which correlates positively with reported incidence for human prion disease, especially sporadic CJD, largely independent of national context. The predictive relationship between surveillance intensity and disease incidence should facilitate more rapid delineation of aberrations in disease occurrence and assessment of the adequacy of disease monitoring by national registries.

Variant of TREM2 associated with the risk of Alzheimer's disease

BACKGROUND

Sequence variants, including the ε4 allele of apolipoprotein E, have been associated with the risk of the common late-onset form of Alzheimer's disease. Few rare variants affecting the risk of late-onset Alzheimer's disease have been found.

METHODS

We obtained the genome sequences of 2261 Icelanders and identified sequence variants that were likely to affect protein function. We imputed these variants into the genomes of patients with Alzheimer's disease and control participants and then tested for an association with Alzheimer's disease. We performed replication tests using case-control series from the United States, Norway, The Netherlands, and Germany. We also tested for a genetic association with cognitive function in a population of unaffected elderly persons.

RESULTS

A rare missense mutation (rs75932628-T) in the gene encoding the triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 2 (TREM2), which was predicted to result in an R47H substitution, was found to confer a significant risk of Alzheimer's disease in Iceland (odds ratio, 2.92; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.09 to 4.09; P=3.42×10(-10)). The mutation had a frequency of 0.46% in controls 85 years of age or older. We observed the association in additional sample sets (odds ratio, 2.90; 95% CI, 2.16 to 3.91; P=2.1×10(-12) in combined discovery and replication samples). We also found that carriers of rs75932628-T between the ages of 80 and 100 years without Alzheimer's disease had poorer cognitive function than noncarriers (P=0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings strongly implicate variant TREM2 in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease. Given the reported antiinflammatory role of TREM2 in the brain, the R47H substitution may lead to an increased predisposition to Alzheimer's disease through impaired containment of inflammatory processes. (Funded by the National Institute on Aging and others.).