Modeling the transmission risk of emerging infectious diseases through blood transfusion

BACKGROUND

A timely risk assessment is desired to guide decisions on preventive transfusion safety measures during emerging infectious disease (EID) outbreaks. The European Up-Front Risk Assessment Tool (EUFRAT) model was developed to provide quantitative transmission risk estimates of EIDs through blood transfusion.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

The generic model comprises five sequential steps to estimate the infection risks in the blood transfusion chain: 1) the prevalence of infection in the donor population, 2) the risk of obtaining infected donations, 3) infected components, 4) infected blood products, and 5) the risk of transmitting the infection to recipients. The model uses inputs from epidemiologic characteristics of an EID and transfusion practice. The model was applied to data from a recent chikungunya outbreak in Italy.

RESULTS

Based on data from the outbreak peak, an estimated prevalence of 1.07 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.38-2.03) per 100,000 donors would lead to 0.04 infected donations (95% CI, 0.01-0.10), 0.13 infected blood components, 0.13 infected end products, and 0.0001 severe infections in recipients. This estimated risk can be reduced by increasing the duration of quarantine of the donated blood and becomes zero after 7 or more days of quarantine. The model also estimated the probability of a donor returning from the outbreak area and subsequently donating infected blood in his home country to be 0.30 (95% CI, 0.01-0.65) per 100,000.

CONCLUSION

The model can be used to quantify EID outbreak risks to blood transfusion recipients and the effect of targeted safety interventions and as such support public health decision-making.

A probabilistic model for analyzing viral risks of plasma-derived medicinal products

BACKGROUND

The prevention of transmission of viral infections by plasma-derived medicinal products is of concern to manufacturers, legislators, and patient representative groups. Recent European legislation requires a viral risk assessment for all new marketing applications of such products.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

A discrete event Monte Carlo model was developed to determine the viral transmission risks of the plasma-derived medicinal products. The model incorporates donor epidemiology, donation intervals, efficiency of screening tests for viral markers, inventory hold period, size and composition of the manufacturing pool, production time, process virus reduction capacity, and product yield. With the model, the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) contamination risks of a typical hypothetical plasma product were calculated, and the sensitivity of the risk to various model variables was analyzed.

RESULTS

The residual HIV and HCV risks of the finished products are linear in change with viral incidence rate and inversely linear with product yield and process virus reduction capacity. For the product analyzed in this article, the residual risk is less sensitive to changes in screening test pool size, donation frequency, and inventory hold period. There is only a limited dependency on the donation type (apheresis or whole-blood donations) and a negligible dependency on the manufacturing pool size.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of probabilistic model simulation techniques is indispensable when estimating realistic residual viral risks of plasma-derived medicinal products. In contrast to conventional deterministic residual risk estimations, the probabilistic approach allows incorporation of specific manufacturing decisions and therefore provides the only feasible alternative for a correct assessment of residual risks.

Diversity and origin of hepatitis C virus infection among unpaid blood donors in the Netherlands

BACKGROUND

To improve transfusion policy and to increase understanding of the spread of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the general population, HCV infections among voluntary Dutch blood donors were examined with molecular epidemiologic techniques.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

During 6 years, 1997 through 2002, confirmed anti-HCV-positive donors were interviewed on HCV-associated risk behavior with a standardized questionnaire. Additionally, HCV isolates were genotyped, partially sequenced, and compared to sequences obtained from Dutch injecting drug users (IDUs).

RESULTS

HCV prevalence and incidence rates among Dutch donors were extremely low; the residual risk of transmitting HCV was calculated to be 1 in 30 million donations. Former IDUs (21%), transfusion recipients (30%), and immigrants (>12%) were identified as major HCV risk groups. Cryptogenic transmission caused 18 percent of infections among new donors and all infections among repeat donors. Compared to IDUs, genotype distribution among donors was highly diverse; major subtypes were 3a (27%), 1a (24%), 1b (24%), 2a/b (10%), and 4 (9%). Half of the donors were infected with IDU-related subtypes 1a and 3a, whereas subtype 1b mainly spread via blood transfusion and various other nosocomial modes of transmission in the past. HCV infections acquired in endemic countries could be clearly identified based on genotype.

CONCLUSION

Different modes of transmission are linked to infections with certain HCV subtypes, suggesting separate HCV epidemics, but spillover between different risk groups underlines the value of molecular epidemiologic techniques to gain insight into the origin and dynamics of HCV infections on a population level.

Costs and benefits of bacterial culturing and pathogen reduction in the Netherlands

BACKGROUND

Bacterial contamination is a life-threatening risk of blood transfusion, especially with platelet (PLT) transfusions. Bacterial culturing (BCU) of PLTs as well as pathogen reduction (PRT) reduce the likelihood of such contamination. The cost-effectiveness (CE) of these interventions was analyzed after the introduction of the diversion pouch during blood collection.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

The balance between costs and benefits of preventing adverse events due to PLT transfusion was assessed with a mathematical decision model and Monte Carlo simulations. Model parameters were obtained from the literature and from Dutch Sanquin blood banks. The balance between costs and benefits is assessed in terms of costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY).

RESULTS

The costs per 100,000 PLT concentrates in the Netherlands are estimated at $3,277,032 (euro2,520,794) for BCU and at $18,582,844 (euro14,294,495) for PRT. In comparison to the situation without BCU and PRT, costs per QALY are estimated at $90,697 (euro69,767) for BCU (95% confidence interval [CI], $18,149-$2,088,854) and at $496,674 (euro382,057) for PRT (95% CI, $143,950-$8,171,133). The ratio of differences in costs and QALYs between BCU and PRT (the relative CE) is estimated at $3,596,256 (euro2,766,351; 95% CI, $1,100,630-$24,756,615). Large uncertainty in sepsis complication rates and PLT recipient survival exist, causing large uncertainties in the absolute CE for both interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

As a result of the unknown probability of sepsis complications and PLT recipient survival, the CE ratios of BCU and PRT in the Dutch setting are highly uncertain. Despite these large uncertainties, it can be concluded that BCU is without doubt more cost-effective than PRT.

Effects of skin disinfection method, deviation bag, and bacterial screening on clinical safety of platelet transfusions in the Netherlands

BACKGROUND

Bacterial contamination of blood products is a great hazard for development of fatal transfusion reactions. Bacterial screening of platelet concentrates (PC) by aerobic and anaerobic culturing (BacT/ALERT, bioMérieux) was introduced in the Netherlands in October 2001.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

In November 2002, a nationwide, uniform skin cleansing method was introduced with a double-swab disinfection with 70 percent isopropyl alcohol. One location routinely used an integrated diversion bag to collect the first 20 to 30 mL.

RESULTS

Over the calendar years 2002 and 2003, in total 113,093 PCs derived from pooled buffy coats were screened. After introduction of the new disinfection method, 0.85 percent were initially positive. This was a small reduction compared to the previous disinfection methods under which 0.95 percent were initially positive. The location with use of the diversion bag showed a significantly lower frequency of bacterial contamination, with 0.50 percent before and 0.37 percent after introduction of 70 percent isopropyl alcohol. In addition 8000 apheresis PCs were also screened, showing 24 initially positive samples (0.30%).

CONCLUSION

The use of the diversion bag and, to a lesser extent, the use of double swabs with 70 percent isopropyl alcohol, led to a reduction of contamination. As expected, predominant contamination with resident skin bacteria was reduced. The combination of diversion bag and new disinfection led to a frequency of initial positive results for pooled five-donor PCs, which is similar to that of single-donor apheresis PCs. Furthermore, the bacterial detection system and associated product recall procedures have been shown to be effective in preventing transfusion of contaminated PCs and/or related red cells, especially for rapidly growing bacteria.

Validation of the NucliSens Extractor combined with the AmpliScreen HIV version 1.5 and HCV version 2.0 test for application in NAT minipool screening

BACKGROUND

Routine HCV NAT minipool screening (48 donations) of all blood donations was implemented in July 1999 and was combined with HIV NAT in November 2000. This report describes the validation of the NAT methods and the results of quality control testing.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

Nucleic acid was extracted from 2-mL plasma samples by using an automated silica-based extraction method (NucliSens Extractor, Organon Teknika). Eluates were tested with RT-PCR (AmpliScreen HIV-1 version 1.5 and AmpliScreen HCV version 2.0 test, Roche Diagnostic Systems). HIV-1 and HCV RNA reference panels and run controls (PeliCheck and PeliSpy, respectively, Sanquin-CLB) and human plasma minipools were used for NAT validation.

RESULTS

The 95-percent detection limit (and 95% CI) for HIV-1 RNA genotype B, HIV-1 RNA genotype E, and HCV RNA genotype 1 was 32 (19-76), 30 (17-72), and 21 (13-44) genome equivalents (geq) per mL, respectively. During initial validation, 2332 samples for HIV-1 RNA and 2644 samples for HCV RNA were analyzed, with 13 (0.56%) and 12 (0.45%) invalid test results, respectively. Thereafter, over 19,600 samples (minipools and run controls) were analyzed during the first 11 months of routine screening. Invalid test results for HIV-1 RNA and HCV RNA were found in 1.1 and 1.07 percent of the samples tested, respectively. HIV-1 RNA minipool testing resulted in 27 (0.16%) initial false-positive results and 3 (0.02%) confirmed positive results. HCV RNA minipool testing resulted in four (0.02%) initial false-positive results and five (0.02%) confirmed positive results.

CONCLUSION

Routine HIV and HCV NAT minipool screening using the NucliSens Extractor, AmpliScreen HIV-1 version 1.5, and AmpliScreen HCV version 2.0 meets the sensitivity criteria set by the regulatory bodies and provides sufficient specificity and robustness for timely release of blood donations.