Prediction models for post-discharge mortality among under-five children with suspected sepsis in Uganda: A multicohort analysis

In many low-income countries, over five percent of hospitalized children die following hospital discharge. The lack of available tools to identify those at risk of post-discharge mortality has limited the ability to make progress towards improving outcomes. We aimed to develop algorithms designed to predict post-discharge mortality among children admitted with suspected sepsis. Four prospective cohort studies of children in two age groups (0-6 and 6-60 months) were conducted between 2012-2021 in six Ugandan hospitals. Prediction models were derived for six-months post-discharge mortality, based on candidate predictors collected at admission, each with a maximum of eight variables, and internally validated using 10-fold cross-validation. 8,810 children were enrolled: 470 (5.3%) died in hospital; 257 (7.7%) and 233 (4.8%) post-discharge deaths occurred in the 0-6-month and 6-60-month age groups, respectively. The primary models had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.77 (95%CI 0.74-0.80) for 0-6-month-olds and 0.75 (95%CI 0.72-0.79) for 6-60-month-olds; mean AUROCs among the 10 cross-validation folds were 0.75 and 0.73, respectively. Calibration across risk strata was good: Brier scores were 0.07 and 0.04, respectively. The most important variables included anthropometry and oxygen saturation. Additional variables included: illness duration, jaundice-age interaction, and a bulging fontanelle among 0-6-month-olds; and prior admissions, coma score, temperature, age-respiratory rate interaction, and HIV status among 6-60-month-olds. Simple prediction models at admission with suspected sepsis can identify children at risk of post-discharge mortality. Further external validation is recommended for different contexts. Models can be digitally integrated into existing processes to improve peri-discharge care as children transition from the hospital to the community.

Characterization of Antibiotic Resistance in Select Tertiary Hospitals in Uganda: An Evaluation of 2020 to 2023 Routine Surveillance Data

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a public health concern in Uganda. We sought to conduct an extended profiling of AMR burden at selected Ugandan tertiary hospitals. We analyzed routine surveillance data collected between October 2020 and March 2023 from 10 tertiary hospitals. The analysis was stratified according to the hospital unit, age, gender, specimen type, and time. Up to 2754 isolates were recovered, primarily from pus: 1443 (52.4%); urine: 1035 (37.6%); and blood: 245 (8.9%). Most pathogens were Staphylococcus aureus, 1020 (37%), Escherichia coli, 808 (29.3%), and Klebsiella spp., 200 (7.3%). Only 28% of Escherichia coli and 42% of the other Enterobacterales were susceptible to ceftriaxone, while only 44% of Staphylococcus aureus were susceptible to methicillin (56% were MRSA). Enterococcus spp. susceptibility to vancomycin was 72%. The 5-24-year-old had 8% lower ampicillin susceptibility than the >65-year-old, while the 25-44-year-old had 8% lower ciprofloxacin susceptibility than the >65-year-old. The 0-4-year-old had 8% higher ciprofloxacin susceptibility. Only erythromycin susceptibility varied by sex, being higher in males. Escherichia coli ciprofloxacin susceptibility in blood (57%) was higher than in urine (39%) or pus (28%), as was ceftriaxone susceptibility in blood (44%) versus urine (34%) or pus (14%). Klebsiella spp. susceptibility to ciprofloxacin and meropenem decreased by 55% and 47%, respectively, during the evaluation period. During the same period, Escherichia coli ciprofloxacin susceptibility decreased by 40%, while Staphylococcus aureus gentamicin susceptibility decreased by 37%. Resistance was high across the Access and Watch antibiotic categories, varying with time, age, sex, specimen type, and hospital unit. Effective antimicrobial stewardship targeted at the critical AMR drivers is urgently needed.

Mortality after hospital discharge among children younger than 5 years admitted with suspected sepsis in Uganda: a prospective, multisite, observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Substantial mortality occurs after hospital discharge in children younger than 5 years with suspected sepsis, especially in low-income countries. A better understanding of its epidemiology is needed for effective interventions to reduce child mortality in these countries. We evaluated risk factors for death after discharge in children admitted to hospital for suspected sepsis in Uganda, and assessed how these differed by age, time of death, and location of death.

METHODS

In this prospective, multisite, observational cohort study, we recruited and consecutively enrolled children aged 0-60 months admitted with suspected sepsis from the community to the paediatric wards of six Ugandan hospitals. Suspected sepsis was defined as the need for admission due to a suspected or proven infectious illness. At admission, trained study nurses systematically collected data on clinical variables, sociodemographic variables, and baseline characteristics with encrypted study tablets. Participants were followed up for 6 months after discharge by field officers who contacted caregivers at 2 months and 4 months after discharge by telephone and at 6 months after discharge in person to measure vital status, health-care seeking after discharge, and readmission details. We assessed 6-month mortality after hospital discharge among those discharged alive, with verbal autopsies conducted for children who had died after hospital discharge.

FINDINGS

Between July 13, 2017, and March 30, 2020, 16 991 children were screened for eligibility. 6545 children (2927 [44·72%] female children and 3618 [55·28%] male children) were enrolled and 6191 were discharged from hospital alive. 6073 children (2687 [44·2%] female children and 3386 [55·8%] male children) completed follow-up. 366 children died in the 6-month period after discharge (weighted mortality rate 5·5%). Median time from discharge to death was 28 days (IQR 9-74). For the 360 children for whom location of death was documented, deaths occurred at home (162 [45·0%]), in transit to care (66 [18·3%]), or in hospital (132 [36·7%]) during a subsequent readmission. Death after hospital discharge was strongly associated with weight-for-age Z scores less than -3 (adjusted risk ratio [aRR] 4·7, 95% CI 3·7-5·8 vs a Z score of >-2), discharge or referral to a higher level of care (7·3, 5·6-9·5), and unplanned discharge (3·2, 2·5-4·0). Hazard ratios (HRs) for severe anaemia (<7g/dL) increased with time since discharge, from 1·7 (95% CI 0·9-3·0) for death occurring in the first time tertile to 5·2 (3·1-8·5) in the third time tertile. HRs for some discharge vulnerabilities decreased significantly with increasing time since discharge, including unplanned discharge (from 4.5 [2·9-6·9] in the first tertile to 2·0 [1·3-3·2] in the third tertile) and poor feeding status (from 7·7 [5·4-11·0] to 1·84 [1·0-3·3]). Age interacted with several variables, including reduced weight-for-age Z score, severe anaemia, and reduced admission temperature.

INTERPRETATION

Paediatric mortality following hospital discharge after suspected sepsis is common, with diminishing, although persistent, risk during the first 6 months after discharge. Efforts to improve outcomes after hospital discharge are crucial to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 (ending preventable childhood deaths under age 5 years).

FUNDING

Grand Challenges Canada, Thrasher Research Fund, BC Children's Hospital Foundation, and Mining4Life.

Technical results from a trial of the FREO2 Low-Pressure Oxygen Storage system, Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital, Uganda

Increased access to reliable medical oxygen would reduce the global burden of pneumonia. Oxygen concentrators have been shown to be an effective solution, however they have significant drawbacks when used in low-resource environments where pneumonia burden is the heaviest. Low quality grid power can damage oxygen concentrators and blackouts can prevent at-risk patients from receiving continual oxygen therapy. Gaps in prescribed oxygen flow can result in acquired brain injuries, extended hypoxemia and death. The FREO2 Low-Pressure Oxygen Storage (LPOS) system consists of a suite of improvements to a standard oxygen concentrator which address these limitations. This study reports the technical results of a field trial of the system in Mbarara, Uganda. During this trial, oxygen supplied from the LPOS system was distributed to four beds in the paediatric ward of Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital. Over a three-month period, medical-grade oxygen was made available to patients 100% of the time. This period was sufficient to quantify the ability of the LPOS system to deal with blackouts, maintenance, and an unscheduled repair to the LPOS store.

Where there is no doctor: can volunteer community health workers in rural Uganda provide integrated community case management?

INTRODUCTION

Integrated community case management (iCCM) involves assessment and treatment of common childhood illnesses by community health workers (CHWs). Evaluation of a new Ugandan iCCM program is needed.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives of this study were to assess if iCCM by lay volunteer CHWs is feasible and if iCCM would increase proportions of children treated for fever, pneumonia, and diarrhoea in rural Uganda.

METHODS

This pre/post study used a quasi-experimental design and non-intervention comparison community. CHWs were selected, trained, and equipped to assess and treat children under five years with signs of the three illnesses. Evaluation included CHW-patient encounter record review plus analysis of pre/post household surveys.

RESULTS

196 iCCM-trained CHWs reported 6,276 sick child assessments (45% fever, 46% pneumonia, 9% diarrhoea). 93% of cases were managed according to algorithm recommendations. Absolute proportions of children receiving treatment significantly increased post-intervention: antimalarial for fever (+24% intervention versus +4% control) and oral rehydration salts/zinc for diarrhoea (+14% intervention versus +1% control).

CONCLUSION

In our limited-resource, rural Ugandan setting, iCCM involving lay CHWs was feasible and significantly increased the proportion of young children treated for malaria and diarrhoea.

Scheduled Follow-Up Referrals and Simple Prevention Kits Including Counseling to Improve Post-Discharge Outcomes Among Children in Uganda: A Proof-of-Concept Study

Post-hospital discharge is a vulnerable time for recurrent illness and death among children. An intervention package consisting of (1) referrals for scheduled follow-up visits, (2) discharge counseling, and (3) simple prevention items such as soap and oral rehydration salts resulted in much higher health seeking and hospital readmissions compared with historical controls.

Background:

Recurrent illness following hospital discharge is a major contributor to childhood mortality in resource-poor countries. Yet post-discharge care is largely ignored by health care workers and policy makers due to a lack of resources to identify children with recurrent illness and a lack of cohesive systems to provide care. The purpose of this proof-of-concept study was to evaluate the effectiveness of a bundle of interventions at discharge to improve health outcomes during the vulnerable post-discharge period.

Methods:

The study was conducted between December 2014 and April 2015. Eligible children were between ages 6 months and 5 years who were admitted with a suspected or proven infectious disease to one of two hospitals in Mbarara, Uganda. A bundle of interventions was provided at the time of discharge. This bundle included post-discharge referrals for follow-up visits and a discharge kit. The post-discharge referral was to ensure follow-up with a nearby health care provider on days 2, 7, and 14 following discharge. The discharge kit included brief educational counseling along with simple preventive items as incentives (soap, a mosquito net, and oral rehydration salts) to reinforce the education. The primary study outcome was the number of post-discharge referral visits completed. Secondary study outcomes included satisfaction with the intervention, rates of readmission after 60 days, and post-discharge mortality rates. In addition, outcomes were compared with a historical control group, enrolled using the same inclusion criteria and outcome-ascertainment methods.

Results:

During the study, 216 children were admitted, of whom 14 died during hospitalization. Of the 202 children discharged, 85% completed at least 1 of the 3 follow-up referral visits, with 48% completing all 3 visits. Within 60 days after discharge, 22 children were readmitted at least once and 5 children (2.5%) died. Twelve (43%) readmissions occurred during a scheduled follow-up visit. Compared with prospectively enrolled historical controls, the post-discharge referral for follow-up increased the odds of readmission (odds ratio [OR], 1.92; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.14 to 3.23) and care sought after discharge (OR, 14.61; 95% CI, 9.41 to 22.67). Overall satisfaction with the bundle of interventions was high, with most caregivers strongly agreeing that the discharge kit and post-discharge referrals improved their ability to care for their child.

Conclusions:

Interventions initiated at the time of discharge have the potential to profoundly affect the landscape of care during illness recovery and lead to significantly improved outcomes among children under 5 years of age.

A demonstration of mobile phone deployment to support the treatment of acutely ill children under five in Bushenyi district, Uganda

BACKGROUND

Benefits of mobile phone deployment for children <5 in low-resource settings remain unproven. The target population of the current demonstration study in Bushenyi District, Uganda, presented with acute fever, pneumonia, or diarrhoea and were treated by community health workers (CHWs) providing integrated community case management (iCCM).

METHODS

An observational study was conducted in five parishes (47 villages) served by CHWs well versed in iCCM with supplemental training in mobile phone use. Impact was assessed by quantitative measures and qualitative evaluation through household surveys, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews.

RESULTS

CHWs in targeted sites improved child healthcare through mobile phone use coupled with iCCM. Of acutely ill children, 92.6% were correctly managed. Significant improvements in clinical outcomes compared to those obtained by CHWs with enhanced iCCM training alone were unproven in this limited demonstration. Nonetheless, qualitative evaluation showed gains in treatment planning, supply management, and logistical efficiency. Provider confidence and communications were enhanced as was ease and accuracy of record keeping.

CONCLUSION

Mobile phones appear synergistic with iCCM to bolster basic supportive care for acutely ill children provided by CHWs. The full impact of expanded mobile phone deployment warrants further evaluation prior to scaling up in low-resource settings.

The PAediatric Risk Assessment (PARA) Mobile App to Reduce Postdischarge Child Mortality: Design, Usability, and Feasibility for Health Care Workers in Uganda

Background

Postdischarge death in children is increasingly being recognized as a major contributor to overall child mortality. The PAediatric Risk Assessment (PARA) app is an mHealth tool developed to aid health care workers in resource-limited settings such as Sub-Saharan Africa to identify pediatric patients at high risk of both in-hospital and postdischarge mortality. The intended users of the PARA app are health care workers (ie, nurses, doctors, and clinical officers) with varying levels of education and technological exposure, making testing of this clinical tool critical to successful implementation.

Objective

Our aim was to summarize the usability evaluation of the PARA app among target users, which consists of assessing the ease of use, functionality, and navigation of the interfaces and then iteratively improving the design of this clinical tool.

Methods

Health care workers (N=30) were recruited to participate at Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital and Holy Innocents Children’s Hospital in Mbarara, Southwestern Uganda. This usability study was conducted in two phases to allow for iterative improvement and testing of the interfaces. The PARA app was evaluated using quantitative and qualitative measures, which were compared between Phases 1 and 2 of the study. Participants were given two patient scenarios that listed hypothetical information (ie, demographic, social, and clinical data) to be entered into the app and to determine the patient’s risk of in-hospital and postdischarge mortality. Time-to-completion and user errors were recorded for each participant while using the app. A modified computer system usability questionnaire was utilized at the end of each session to elicit user satisfaction with the PARA app and obtain suggestions for future improvements.

Results

The average time to complete the PARA app decreased by 30% from Phase 1 to Phase 2, following user feedback and modifications. Participants spent the longest amount of time on the oxygen saturation interface, but modifications following Phase 1 cut this time by half. The average time-to-completion (during Phase 2) for doctors/medical students was 3 minutes 56 seconds. All participants agreed they would use the PARA app if available at their health facility. Given a high PARA risk score, participants suggested several interventions that would be appropriate for the sociocultural context in southwestern Uganda, which involved strengthening discharge and referral procedures within the current health care system.

Conclusions

Through feedback and modifications made during this usability study, the PARA app was developed into a user-friendly app, encompassing user expectations and culturally intuitive interfaces for users with a range of technological exposure. Doctors and medical students had shorter task completion times, though all participants reported the usefulness of this tool to improve postdischarge outcomes.

Stakeholders' perceptions of integrated community case management by community health workers: a post-intervention qualitative study

Background

Integrated community case management (iCCM) involves delivery of simple medicines to children with pneumonia, diarrhea and/or malaria by community health workers (CHWs). Between 2010 and 2012, an iCCM intervention trial was implemented by Healthy Child Uganda. This study used qualitative tools to assess whether project stakeholders perceived that iCCM improved access to care for children under five years of age.

Methods

The intervention involved training and equipping 196 CHWs in 98 study villages in one sub-county in Uganda in iCCM. During the eight-month intervention, CHWs assessed sick children, provided antimalarials (coartem) for fever, antibiotics (amoxicillin) for cough and fast breathing, oral rehydration salts/zinc for diarrhea, and referred very sick children to health facilities. In order to examine community perceptions and acceptability of iCCM, post-intervention focus groups and key respondent interviews involving caregivers, health workers, CHWs and local leaders were carried out by experienced facilitators using semi-structured interview guides. Data were analyzed using thematic analysis techniques.

Results

Respondents reported increased access to health care for children as a result of iCCM. Access was reportedly closer to home, available more hours in a day, and the availability of CHWs was perceived as more reliable. CHW care was reported to be trustworthy and caring. Families reported saving money especially due to reduced transportation costs, and less time away from home. Respondents also perceived better health outcomes. Linkages between health facilities and communities were reportedly improved by the iCCM intervention due to the presence of trained CHWs in the community.

Conclusions

iCCM delivered by CHWs may improve access to health care and is acceptable to families. Policymakers should continue to seek opportunities to implement and support iCCM, particularly in remote communities where there are health worker shortages.