Metabolic syndrome with and without C-reactive protein as a predictor of coronary heart disease and diabetes in the West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study

BACKGROUND

The National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) recently proposed a simple definition for metabolic syndrome. Information on the prospective association of this definition for coronary heart disease (CHD) and type 2 diabetes is currently limited.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used a modified NCEP definition with body mass index in place of waist circumference. Baseline assessments in the West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study were available for 6447 men to predict CHD risk and for 5974 men to predict incident diabetes over 4.9 years of follow-up. Mean LDL cholesterol was similar but C-reactive protein was higher (P<0.0001) in the 26% of men with the syndrome compared with those without. Metabolic syndrome increased the risk for a CHD event [univariate hazard ratio (HR)=1.76 (95% CI, 1.44 to 2.15)] and for diabetes [univariate HR=3.50 (95% CI 2.51 to 4.90)]. Metabolic syndrome continued to predict CHD events (HR=1.30, 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.67, P=0.045) in a multivariate model incorporating conventional risk factors. Men with 4 or 5 features of the syndrome had a 3.7-fold increase in risk for CHD and a 24.5-fold increase for diabetes compared with men with none (both P<0.0001). C-reactive protein enhanced prognostic information for both outcomes. With pravastatin, men with the syndrome had similar risk reduction for CHD as compared with those without (HR, 0.73 and 0.69; pravastatin versus placebo).

CONCLUSIONS

A modified NCEP metabolic syndrome definition predicts CHD events, and, more strikingly, new-onset diabetes, and thus helps identify individuals who may receive particular benefit from lifestyle measures to prevent these diseases.

Pravastatin and the development of diabetes mellitus: evidence for a protective treatment effect in the West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study

BACKGROUND

We examined the development of new diabetes mellitus in men aged 45 to 64 years during the West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Our definition of diabetes mellitus was based on the American Diabetic Association threshold of a blood glucose level of >/=7.0 mmol/L. Subjects who self-reported diabetes at baseline or had a baseline glucose level of >/=7.0 mmol/L were excluded from the analyses. A total of 5974 of the 6595 randomized subjects were included in the analysis, and 139 subjects became diabetic during the study. The baseline predictors of the transition from normal glucose control to diabetes were studied. In the univariate model, body mass index, log triglyceride, log white blood cell count, systolic blood pressure, total and HDL cholesterol, glucose, and randomized treatment assignment to pravastatin were significant predictors. In a multivariate model, body mass index, log triglyceride, glucose, and pravastatin therapy were retained as predictors of diabetes in this cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

We concluded that the assignment to pravastatin therapy resulted in a 30% reduction (P:=0.042) in the hazard of becoming diabetic. By lowering plasma triglyceride levels, pravastatin therapy may favorably influence the development of diabetes, but other explanations, such as the anti-inflammatory properties of this drug in combination with its endothelial effects, cannot be excluded with these analyses.

Effect of pravastatin on cardiovascular events in people with chronic kidney disease

BACKGROUND

Limited data describe the cardiovascular benefit of HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins) in people with moderate chronic kidney disease (CKD). The objective of this analysis was to determine whether pravastatin reduced the incidence of cardiovascular events in people with or at high risk for coronary disease and with concomitant moderate CKD.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We analyzed data from the Pravastatin Pooling Project (PPP), a subject-level database combining results from 3 randomized trials of pravastatin (40 mg daily) versus placebo. Of 19 700 subjects, 4491 (22.8%) had moderate CKD, defined by an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 30 to 59.99 mL/min per 1.73 m2 body surface area. The primary outcome was time to myocardial infarction, coronary death, or percutaneous/surgical coronary revascularization. Moderate CKD was independently associated with an increased risk of the primary outcome (adjusted HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.49) compared with those with normal renal function. Among the 4491 subjects with moderate CKD, pravastatin significantly reduced the incidence of the primary outcome (HR 0.77, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.86), similar to the effect of pravastatin on the primary outcome in subjects with normal kidney function (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.94). Pravastatin also appeared to reduce the total mortality rate in those with moderate CKD (adjusted HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.00, P=0.045).

CONCLUSIONS

Pravastatin reduces cardiovascular event rates in people with or at risk for coronary disease and concomitant moderate CKD, many of whom have serum creatinine levels within the normal range. Given the high risk associated with CKD, the absolute benefit that resulted from use of pravastatin was greater than in those with normal renal function.

Effect of pravastatin on rate of kidney function loss in people with or at risk for coronary disease

BACKGROUND

Limited data suggest that HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins) reduce rates of kidney function loss. We performed this analysis to determine whether pravastatin reduced the rate of kidney function loss over approximately 5 years in people with or at high risk for coronary disease.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This was a post hoc subgroup analysis of data from 3 randomized double-blind controlled trials comparing pravastatin 40 mg/d and placebo in subjects with a previous acute coronary syndrome or who were at high cardiovascular risk. The primary outcome was the rate of change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR; in mL/min per 1.73 m2/y). The Modified Diet and Renal Disease Study (MDRD) and Cockcroft-Gault equations were used to estimate GFR. We studied 18,569 participants, 3402 (18.3%) of whom had moderate chronic kidney disease as defined by an estimated GFR of 30 to 59.9 mL/min per 1.73 m2 body surface area. In subjects with moderate chronic kidney disease at baseline, pravastatin reduced the adjusted rate of kidney function loss by approximately 34%, although the absolute reduction in the rate of loss was small (0.22 mL/min per 1.73 m2/y by MDRD-GFR; 95% CI, 0.07 to 0.37). Pravastatin did not reduce the frequency of > or =25% decreases in kidney function in this group when MDRD-GFR was used to estimate GFR (relative risk [RR], 0.84; 95% CI, 0.66 to 1.06). When all 18,569 subjects were considered, pravastatin reduced the adjusted rate of kidney function loss by 8% (0.08 mL/min per 1.73 m2/y by MDRD-GFR; 95% CI, 0.01 to 0.15) and the risk of acute renal failure (RR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.41 to 0.86) but did not significantly reduce the frequency of a > or =25% decline in kidney function by MDRD-GFR (RR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.88 to 1.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Pravastatin modestly reduced the rate of kidney function loss in people with or at risk for cardiovascular disease. However, the primary indication for the use of statins in people with or at risk for coronary events remains the reduction in mortality that results from their use.

Should diabetes be considered a coronary heart disease risk equivalent?: results from 25 years of follow-up in the Renfrew and Paisley survey

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of our study was to confirm or refute the view that diabetes be regarded as a coronary heart disease (CHD) risk equivalent and to test for sex differences in mortality.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study of 7,052 men and 8,354 women aged 45-64 years from Renfrew and Paisley, Scotland, who were first screened in 1972-1976 and followed for 25 years. All-cause mortality was calculated as death per 1,000 person-years. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to adjust survival for age, smoking habit, blood pressure, serum cholesterol, BMI, and social class.

RESULTS

There were 192 deaths in 228 subjects with diabetes and 2,016 deaths in 3,076 subjects with CHD. The highest mortality was in the group with both diabetes and CHD (100.2 deaths/1,000 person-years in men, 93.6 in women) and the lowest in the group with neither (29.2 deaths/1,000 person-years in men, 19.4 in women). Men and women with diabetes only and CHD only formed an intermediate risk group. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for CHD mortality in men with diabetes only compared with men with CHD only was 1.17 (95% CI 0.78-1.74; P = 0.56). Corresponding HR for women was 1.97 (1.27-3.08; P = 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

Diabetes without previous CHD carries a lifetime risk of vascular death as high as that for CHD alone. Women may be at particular risk. Our data support the view that cardiovascular risk factors in diabetes should be treated as aggressively as in people with CHD.

Potassium disorders—clinical spectrum and emergency management

Potassium disorders are common and may precipitate cardiac arrhythmias or cardiopulmonary arrest. They are an anticipated complication in patients with renal failure, but may also occur in patients with no previous history of renal disease. They have a broad clinical spectrum of presentation and this paper will highlight the life-threatening arrhythmias associated with both hyperkalaemia and hypokalaemia. Although the medical literature to date has provided a foundation for the therapeutic options available, this has not translated into consistent medical practice. Treatment algorithms have undoubtedly been useful in the management of other medical emergencies such as cardiac arrest and acute asthma. Hence, we have applied this strategy to the treatment of hyperkalaemia and hypokalaemia which may prove valuable in clinical practice.

Effect of pravastatin in people with diabetes and chronic kidney disease

Although diabetes is a major cause of chronic kidney disease (CKD), limited data describe the cardiovascular benefit of hydroxymethyl glutaryl CoA reductase inhibitors (statins) in people with both of these conditions. This study sought to determine whether pravastatin reduced the incidence of first or recurrent cardiovascular events in people with non-dialysis-dependent CKD and concomitant diabetes, using data from three randomized trials of pravastatin 40 mg daily versus placebo. CKD was defined by estimated GFR <60 or 60 to 89.9 ml/min per 1.73 m2 with proteinuria. Of 19,737 patients, 4099 (20.8%) had CKD but not diabetes at baseline, 873 (4.4%) had diabetes but not CKD, and 571 (2.9%) had both conditions. The primary composite outcome was time to myocardial infarction, coronary death, or percutaneous/surgical coronary revascularization. Median follow-up was 64 mo. After adjustment for trial and random treatment assignment, the incidence of the primary outcome was lowest in individuals with neither CKD nor diabetes (15.2%), intermediate in individuals with only CKD (18.6%) or only diabetes (21.3%), and highest in individuals with both characteristics (27.0%). Pravastatin reduced the relative likelihood of the primary outcome to a similar extent in subgroups defined by the presence or absence of CKD and diabetes. For example, pravastatin was associated with a significant reduction in the relative risk of the primary outcome by 25% in patients with CKD and concomitant diabetes and by 24% in individuals with neither characteristic. However, the absolute reduction in the risk of the primary outcome as a result of pravastatin use was highest in patients with both CKD and diabetes (6.4%) and lowest in individuals with neither characteristic (3.5%). In conclusion, stage 2 or early stage 3 CKD and diabetes both are associated with higher cardiovascular risk, and pravastatin reduces cardiovascular event rates in people with neither, one, or both characteristics. Given the high absolute benefit of pravastatin in patient with diabetes and stage 2 or early stage 3 CKD, this population in particular should be targeted for widespread use of statins. Additional studies are needed to determine whether these benefits apply to patients with more severe CKD, and recruitment to such studies should be given high priority.

Excess smoking in malignant-phase hypertension

The smoking habits of 82 patients with malignant-phase hypertension were compared with those of subjects in three control groups matched for age and sex. Sixty-seven (82%) of the patients with malignant-phase hypertension were smokers compared with 41 (50%) and 71 (43%) of the patients in two control groups with non-malignant hypertension, and 43 people (52%) in a general population survey. The excess of smokers in the malignant-phase group was significant for men and women, together and separately, for cigarette smoking alone, and for all forms of smoking. There were no significant differences between the control groups. The chance of a hypertensive patient who smoked having the malignant phase was five times that of a hypertensive patient who did not. Twelve patients in the malignant-phase group had never smoked. All were alive three and a half years on average after presentation (range 11 months to seven years). Twenty-four (36%) of the smokers with malignant-phase hypertension died during the same period. The mortality rate was significantly higher among patients with renal failure, as was the prevalence of smoking. Eighteen patients with malignant-phase hypertension had a serum creatinine concentration higher than 250 mumol/l (2.8 mg/100 ml); 17 were smokers and one an ex-smoker. Eleven of these 18 patients died.It is concluded that hypertensive patients who smoke are much more likely to develop the malignant phase than those who do not, and that once the condition has developed it follows a particularly lethal course in smokers.

Renal impairment after high-dose flucloxacillin and single-dose gentamicin prophylaxis in patients undergoing elective hip and knee replacement

BACKGROUND

Following advice from the Scottish Antimicrobial Prescribing Group, we switched our antibiotic prophylaxis for elective hip and knee replacement surgery from cefuroxime to flucloxacillin with single-dose gentamicin in order to reduce the incidence of Clostridium difficile associated diarrhoea (CDAD). A clinical impression that more patients subsequently developed acute kidney injury (AKI) led us to examine this possibility in more detail.

METHODS

We examined the incidence of AKI in 198 consecutive patients undergoing elective hip or knee surgery. These patients were given the following prophylactic antibiotics: cefuroxime (n = 48); then high-dose (HD) flucloxacillin (5-8 g) with single-dose gentamicin (n = 52); then low-dose (LD) flucloxacillin (3-4 g) with single-dose gentamicin (n = 46) and finally cefuroxime again (n = 52).

RESULTS

Patients receiving HD flucloxacillin required more vasopressors during surgery (P = 0.02); otherwise, there were no statistically significant differences in pre- and peri-operative characteristics between the four groups. The proportion of patients with any form of AKI by RIFLE criteria was first cefuroxime (8%), HD flucloxacillin with gentamicin (52%), LD flucloxacillin with gentamicin (22%) and second cefuroxime (14%; P < 0.0001). Odds ratios for AKI derived from a multivariate logistic regression model, adjusted also for sex and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers, with the first cefuroxime group as a reference category were: HD flucloxacillin with gentamicin 14.53 (4.25-49.71); LD flucloxacillin with gentamicin 2.96 (0.81-10.81) and second cefuroxime 2.01 (0.52-7.73). Three patients required temporary haemodialysis. Biopsies in two of these showed acute tubulo-interstitial nephritis. All three patients belonged to the HD flucloxacillin with gentamicin group. None of the patients developed CDAD.

CONCLUSIONS

We have shown an association between the prophylactic antibiotic regimen and subsequent development of AKI following primary hip and knee arthroplasty that appeared to be due to the use of HD flucloxacillin with single-dose gentamicin. We found no evidence to suggest that this association was confounded by any of the co-variates we measured.

Survival associated with renovascular disease in Glasgow and Newcastle: a collaborative study

Data from 121 consecutive patients with hypertension and renovascular disease, first diagnosed between 1975 and 1982 in Glasgow and Newcastle, were analysed retrospectively to determine the factors which influenced their outcome. Thirty-six patients died between the data of arteriography and 1st January 1987, giving five and ten year survival rates of 83% and 67%. Survival was greatly reduced in comparison with that of age-sex-matched controls in the general population of the West of Scotland, and was also less than that of essential hypertensives matched for age, sex, initial diastolic blood pressure and smoking habit who had attended the Glasgow Blood Pressure Clinic during the same period. Multivariate analysis showed that age, cigarette smoking and presence of atheromatous disease were significantly and independently related to outcome among the patients with renovascular disease, whereas male sex, centre of origin, severity of hypertension when first seen, initial renal function and presence of bilateral disease were not. Despite a trend towards benefit from surgical intervention (ten year survival in medical group 62%, in surgical group 71%; p = 0.19) our data do not prove that intervention is better than medical treatment, largely because the decision on intervention was not randomised. A prospective trial would be required to answer this important question.

Visual art in hospitals: case studies and review of the evidence

In 2006 a Department of Health Working Group on Arts and Health reported that the arts have 'a clear contribution to make and offer major opportunities in the delivery of better health, wellbeing and improved experience for patients, service users and staff alike'. In this review we examine the evidence underpinning this statement and evaluate the visual art of three of Scotland's newest hospitals: the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, the new Stobhill Hospital, and the new Victoria Infirmary in Glasgow. We conclude that art in hospitals is generally viewed positively by both patients and staff, but that the quality of the evidence is not uniformly high. Effects may be mediated by psychological responses to colour hue, brightness and saturation. Colours that elicit high levels of pleasure with low levels of arousal are most likely to induce a state of calm, while those causing displeasure and high levels of arousal may provoke anxiety. The fact that patients frequently express a preference for landscape and nature scenes is consistent with this observation and with evolutionary psychological theories which predict positive emotional responses to flourishing natural environments. Contrary to a view which may prevail among some contemporary artists, patients who are ill or stressed about their health may not always be comforted by abstract art, preferring the positive distraction and state of calm created by the blues and greens of landscape and nature scenes instead.

Meta-analysis of statins in chronic kidney disease: who benefits?

BACKGROUND

Attempts to reduce the burden of vascular disease in advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) by control of lipids have not been as successful as predicted.

AIM

To determine the extent to which the effectiveness of statins varies by kidney class.

DESIGN

Meta-analysis.

METHODS

We selected randomized trials of statin vs. placebo that gave outcomes for CKD3 (eGFR 30-59 ml/min), CKD4 (eGFR 15-29 ml/min), CKD5 (eGFR < 15 ml/min)/5D(dialysis) and transplant patients separately. Data sources were the Cholesterol Triallists' Treatment Collaboration and previously published meta-analyses. Main outcome measures were major cardiovascular events (MACE), cardiovascular death and all-cause mortality (ACM).

RESULTS

A total of 13 studies provided 19 386 participants with CKD3, 2565 with CKD4, 7051 with CKD5/5D and 2102 with a functioning renal transplant. Statins reduced MACE (pooled HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.67-0.78) and ACM (0.82, 0.73-0.91) in CKD3; probably reduced MACE (0.78, 0.62-0.99) in CKD4; and probably reduced cardiovascular death (0.62, 0.40-0.96) in renal transplants. There were no cardiovascular or ACM data in CKD4; there was no convincing evidence of benefit for any outcome in CKD5/5D; and no significant reduction in MACE or ACM in patients with a functioning transplant.

CONCLUSIONS

Statins are indicated in CKD3, probably indicated in CKD4, not indicated in CKD5/5D and probably indicated in patients with a functioning transplant. Too few patients with CKD4 and renal transplants have been included in lipid lowering trials for confident conclusions to be drawn.

Diarrhoea, vomiting and ACE inhibitors:--an important cause of acute renal failure

The occurrence of severe acute renal failure in 3 patients who developed diarrhoea while taking angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors led us to undertake a retrospective cohort survey to determine the frequency with which diarrhoea and vomiting are associated with acute renal failure in patients taking this class of drug. Serum creatinine was measured as part of the diagnostic workup of 2398 consecutive admissions to an acute medical receiving unit in a district general hospital. Outcome measures were the presence of diarrhoea and/or vomiting, and whether taking an ACE inhibitor, NSAID or diuretic at the time of admission, also previous, initial and follow up serum creatinine concentrations. Peak serum creatinine in the 3 cases was 1159, 989 and 765 micromol/l. None of the 3 required dialysis and all recovered renal function completely after receiving large volumes of intravenous fluid. In the cohort study, 89 of 2398(3.7%) admissions had serum creatinine >/=200 micromol/l. Nine were regular dialysis patients. Of the remaining patients, 30 (37.5%) were taking an ACE inhibitor. Six of 30 (20%) gave a history of diarrhoea and/or vomiting. Median creatinine concentration in this group was 135 (range 111-209) micromol/l before admission, 292 (216-724) micromol/l when first seen in hospital, and 134 (94-219) micromol/l following the withdrawal of drug therapy and fluid replacement. In conclusion, volume depletion causing acute renal failure in patients taking ACE inhibitors is not uncommon. Such patients and their general practitioners should be aware that reversible renal impairment may occur during intercurrent illnesses, particularly if characterised by diarrhoea and/or vomiting.

Early and late mortality after myocardial infarction in men and women: prospective observational study

OBJECTIVE

To compare characteristics, management, and outcome of myocardial infarction (MI) in men and women.

DESIGN

Prospective observational study.

SETTING

District general hospital in southwest Scotland.

PARTICIPANTS

966 men and 597 women admitted with first MI between 1994 and 2000 with follow up to the end of 2001.

RESULTS

393 (40.7%) men and 305 (51.1%) women died during a median follow up of 3.4 years for the survivors. Univariate analysis indicated an excess mortality among women (hazard ratio (HR) 1.45, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25 to 1.68), which disappeared after adjustment for age, smoking, co-morbidity, previous vascular disease, diabetes, hypertension, and social deprivation (HR 1.02, 95% CI 0.87 to 1.20). There was also an excess early mortality within 30 days among women (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.20 to 1.98), though this did not retain significance after adjustment for the same covariates (HR 1.04, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.37). Small and insignificant differences were found in the proportion of men and women receiving thrombolysis on admission and secondary prophylactic drugs at discharge, except for statins and beta blockers, which were respectively more (adjusted odds ratio 1.48, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.98) and less (adjusted odds ratio 0.78, 95% CI 0.60 to 1.00) commonly prescribed to women.

CONCLUSION

Results suggest that the poorer outcome for women after MI reported in other studies may reflect sex bias in management as well as differences in age and co-morbidity and support the view that if women have access to the same quality of care as men then survival will be the same.

Death within 1 year among emergency medical admissions to Scottish hospitals: incident cohort study

BACKGROUND

It is increasingly recognised that large numbers of hospital inpatients have entered the last year of their lives.

AIM

To establish the likelihood of death within 12 months of admission to hospital; to examine the influence on survival of a cancer diagnosis made within the previous 5 years; to assess whether previous emergency admissions influenced mortality; and to compare mortality with that of the wider Scottish population.

DESIGN

Incident cohort study.

SETTING

22 hospitals in Scotland.

PARTICIPANTS

This study used routinely collected data from 10 477 inpatients admitted as an emergency to medicine in 22 Scottish hospitals between 18 and 31 March 2015. These data were linked to national death records and the Scottish Cancer Registry.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

1 year cohort mortality compared with that of the general Scottish population. Patient factors correlating with higher risk of mortality were identified using Cox regression.

RESULTS

There were 2346 (22.4%) deaths in the year following the census admission. Six hundred and ten patients died during that admission (5.8% of all admissions and 26% of all deaths) while 1736 died after the census admission (74% of all deaths). Malignant neoplasms (33.8%), circulatory diseases (22.5%) and respiratory disease (17.9%) accounted for almost three-quarters of all deaths. Mortality rose steeply with age and was five times higher at 1 year for patients aged 85 years and over compared with those who were under 60 years of age (41.9%vs7.9%) (p<0.001). Patients with cancer had a higher mortality rate than patients without a cancer diagnosis (55.6%vs16.6%) (p<0.001). Mortality was higher among patients with one or more emergency medical admissions in the previous year (30.1% v 15.1%) (p<0.001). Age/sex-standardised mortality was 110.4 (95% CI 104.4 to 116.5) for the cohort and 11.7 (95% CI 11.6 to 11.8) for the Scottish population, a 9.4-fold increase in risk.

CONCLUSION

These data may help identify groups of patients admitted to hospital as medical emergencies who are at greatest risk of dying not only during admission but also in the following 12 months.

Patient Preferences for Single Rooms or Shared Accommodation in a District General Hospital

Objectives

To determine whether patients who have used a Scottish district general hospital would prefer single or shared accommodation on a future admission.

Methods

We surveyed 80 in-patients in January 2008 in order to obtain 20 medical and 20 surgical patients in single rooms and the same number in shared accommodation. Each patient received a seven point questionnaire that had been validated in another centre.

Results

Forty four men and 36 women, median 64 years, who had been in hospital for a median of 4.5 days (range 1 to 53 days) participated in the survey. Seventy per cent of patients in shared and 40% of patients in single rooms said they would prefer shared accommodation during a future hospital admission. Those expressing a preference for shared accommodation were older (median age 68 versus 58 years) and had been in hospital for longer (median 5.5 versus 3.5 days) than those who said they would prefer a single room.

Conclusions

It is likely that the desire for company among older people who have to spend a week or more in hospital is driving the responses we obtained. Our findings do not support claims that the argument in favour of 100% single rooms is ‘overwhelming’.

Comparison of combined urea and creatinine clearance and prediction equations as measures of residual renal function when GFR is low

BACKGROUND

UK, US and European guidelines recommend the decision to initiate dialysis should be based on a combination of measurements of kidney function, nutritional status and clinical symptoms. Such recommendations assume an accurate and reproducible measure of glomerular filtration rate (GFR).

METHODS

Prospective study of 97 patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and serum creatinine >200 micromol/l (2.26 mg/dl) who between them contributed 388 24 h urine collections. Our main outcome measure was the number of patients with low residual renal function identified by different tests, using widely accepted thresholds. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and receiver operating characteristic curves for each comparison using a combined urea and creatinine clearance of <15 ml/min to indicate the likely presence of end stage renal disease (CKD stage 5).

RESULTS

Seventy five patients had a combined urea and creatinine clearance <15 ml/min during the study. Using the highest measurement of serum creatinine for each patient, the best of the prediction equations was the 4-variable modification of diet in renal disease (MDRD) equation (area under ROC curve 0.93). This was followed by Kt/V (AUC 0.91) and Cockroft Gault with and without correction for ideal body weight (AUC 0.89). Further analyses showed that the 4-variable MDRD equation had higher NPV (64%) but lower PPV (89%) than the other tests (NPV 40-49%, PPV 92-100%), for identifying patients whose combined clearance was <15 ml/min.

CONCLUSION

The 4-variable MDRD formula is currently the best available prediction equation for GFR, but will nevertheless over estimate residual renal function when this is significantly impaired in up to 36% cases. Collection of 24 h urine samples may still have a role in the assessment of patients with stages 4 and 5 CKD.

Emergency medical admissions, deaths at weekends and the public holiday effect. Cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To assess whether mortality of patients admitted on weekends and public holidays was higher in a district general hospital whose consultants are present more than 6 h per day on the acute medical unit with no other fixed clinical commitments.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

SETTING

Secondary care.

PARTICIPANTS

All emergency medical admissions to Dumfries and Galloway Royal Infirmary between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2010.

METHODS

We examined 7 and 30 day mortality for all weekend and for all public holiday admissions, using all weekday and non-public holiday admissions, respectively, as comparators. We adjusted mortality for age, gender, comorbidity, deprivation, diagnosis and year of admission.

RESULTS

771 (3.8%) of 20 072 emergency admissions died within 7 days of admission and 1780 (8.9%) within 30 days. Adjusted weekend mortality in the all weekend versus all other days analysis was not significantly higher at 7 days (OR 1.10, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.31; p=0.312) or at 30 days (OR 1.07, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.21; p=0.322). By contrast, adjusted public holiday mortality in the all public holidays versus all other days analysis was 48% higher at 7 days (OR 1.48, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.95; p=0.006) and 27% higher at 30 days (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.57; p=0.031). Interactions between the weekend variable and the public holiday variable were not statistically significant for mortality at either 7 or 30 days.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients admitted as emergencies to medicine on public holidays had significantly higher mortality at 7 and 30 days compared with patients admitted on other days of the week.

Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring: a guide for general practitioners

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Recovery of renal function after 90 d on dialysis: implications for transplantation in patients with potentially reversible causes of renal failure

BACKGROUND

Late recovery of renal function in patients requiring dialysis is a well recognized but uncommon phenomenon. Moves to increase the number of live donor transplants and the recognition that early transplantation is associated with better graft survival means it is possible that patients who are going to recover renal function may be transplanted unnecessarily.

DESIGN

Prospective survey of patients receiving dialysis for more than 90 d in south west Scotland from 1 January 1994 to 31 December 2005.

METHODS

Routine measurement of residual renal function by combined urea and creatinine clearance allowed us to detect late recovery whenever this occurred.

RESULTS

Eight of 202 (4%) patients recovered sufficient renal function to stop dialysing after 90-d treatment. The likely cause of the renal failure in five of these patients was atheroembolism. One with atherosclerotic renovascular disease had been stented and would have received a live related renal transplant had his sister not had second thoughts about the procedure.

CONCLUSION

It may be sensible to postpone transplantation in patients with certain types of renal failure, perhaps particularly patients with renovascular disease who have recently undergone a failed revascularization procedure.