The Economic Assimilation of Second-Generation Men: An Analysis of Earnings Trajectories Using Administrative Records

Previous research on the economic assimilation of recent U.S.-born children of immigrants who form the new second generation has disproportionately focused on their educational attainment and other early-life outcomes. In this study, we examine the earnings trajectories of second-generation men through a large part of their adult lives using a unique dataset that links respondents from more than two decades of the Current Population Survey to their longitudinal tax records. This longitudinal information allows us to compare the progress second-generation men of different race and ethnicity make in narrowing the earnings gaps with later generations. We consider the extent to which differences in educational attainment and in early occupational placement affect the earnings trajectories of second-generation men. New second-generation men as a whole experience considerable earnings mobility during their lifetimes. However, we also find large differences by race and ethnicity that cannot be fully explained by educational attainment. Second-generation Hispanic men in particular begin their careers with an earnings deficit relative to later-generation White men and fall further behind. Thus, the stalling or reversal in Hispanic economic assimilation appears to begin during the course of the second generation rather than in later generations as previously thought.

The Growing Socioeconomic Gap in Lifetime Social Security Retirement Benefits: Current and Future Retirees

OBJECTIVES

Increasing socioeconomic disparities, including in life expectancy, have important implications for the US Social Security program. This study examined inter- and intra-cohort trends in Social Security retirement benefits, paying special attention to how lifetime benefit trajectories by socioeconomic circumstance shift across cohorts encompassing current and future retirees.

METHOD

Using a dynamic microsimulation model based on representative survey data linked to administrative records, we developed a set of cohort-specific projections that estimate monthly and lifetime Social Security retirement benefits for retirees spanning the Early Baby Boom (1945-1954) to Generation X (1965-1974) cohorts.

RESULTS

We found a widening socioeconomic gap in projected monthly and lifetime benefits for men and women, especially on a lifetime basis. This divergence is associated with stagnation of benefit levels among lower SES groups coupled with upward shifts among higher strata groups. Distributional changes are linked with increasing differential mortality, but other factors also likely play a role such as rising education premiums, growing earnings inequality, and changes in women's work and relationship histories.

DISCUSSION

Widening mortality differentials can lead to distributional changes in the US Social Security program. Microsimulation methodology lends insights into how the socioeconomic gap in monthly and lifetime benefit distributions may change among future older Americans in the context of differential mortality and other demographic changes. Moving forward in time, these complex patterns could offset some of the progressivity built into the system.

Immigrants' Employment Stability Over the Great Recession and Its Aftermath

We examine immigrant men's employment stability during the Great Recession and its aftermath using a longitudinal approach that draws on data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), a nationally representative panel survey of U.S. residents. Discrete-time event-history models are used to estimate male immigrants' relative risk of experiencing an involuntary job loss or underemployment, defined as working less than full-time involuntarily. The analysis also investigates differences in job stability by immigrant documentation status. Undocumented immigrants are identified using a logical allocation method augmented with external information about whether the respondent was successfully matched with administrative data. We find that immigrants are at significantly higher risk of involuntary job loss, and especially of underemployment relative to native-born workers. Undocumented immigrants face a greater risk of adverse job transitions, particularly underemployment in the first part of the recession. When demographic and job characteristics are taken into account, immigrant-native and documented-undocumented differences attenuate but remain in many instances. A comparison of our findings with those from an earlier nonrecessionary period from 2004 to 2006 suggests that immigrants' higher risk of employment instability may be attributed to the recession.

Family and Health over the Past Decade: Review of Selected Studies and Areas of Future Inquiry

Research on the family-health nexus cuts across disciplines, focuses on a broad range of issues, and is set against a backdrop marked by increasing diversity of family structures and households, aging families, and intensifying concerns about health and social inequalities. Over the last decade, a plethora of articles appearing in The Journal of Family and Economic Issues (JFEI) have examined the interplay between family and health. This article attempts to crystallize the primary contributions of this body of work. My discussion is organized around various thematic areas that emerged from the review: (a) childbearing, (b) children's health, (c) relationships, (d) caregiving, and (e) the impact of health on household finances. I close by sketching out some useful areas for future research in the next decade.

Educational Variations in Cohort Trends in the Black-White Earnings Gap Among Men: Evidence From Administrative Earnings Data

Despite efforts to improve the labor market situation of African Americans, the racial earnings gap has endured in the United States. Most prior studies on racial inequality have considered its cross-sectional or period patterns. This study adopts a demographic perspective to examine the evolution of earnings trajectories among white and black men across cohorts in the United States. Using more than 40 years of longitudinal earnings records from the U.S. Social Security Administration matched to the Survey of Income and Program Participation, our analyses reveal that the cohort trends in the racial earnings gap follow quite different patterns by education. Race continues to be a salient dimension of economic inequality over the life course and across cohorts, particularly at the top and the bottom of the educational distribution. Although the narrowing of the racial gap among high school graduates is in itself a positive development, it unfortunately derives primarily from the deteriorating economic position for whites without a college degree rather than an improvement in economic standing of their black counterparts.

Are You Saving for Retirement? Racial/Ethnic Differentials in Contributory Retirement Savings Plans

OBJECTIVES

How individuals and families accumulate retirement resources during working years is a key aspect of aging with implications for later life. This study examines how much, and by what mechanisms, savings in retirement plans vary by race/ethnicity.

METHOD

Using representative survey data and linked W-2 tax records, we estimate the probability of participation in employer-sponsored defined contribution (DC) retirement plans with probit regression, and contribution levels with ordinary least squares (OLS) models. We use Heckman models to adjust for potential sample selection.

RESULTS

Black and Hispanic workers have lower participation and contributions in employer-sponsored DC retirement plans than do white workers, while Asian Americans have higher levels. The bulk of racial/ethnic differences is attributed to socioeconomic position, especially education and labor market circumstances like earnings. Differentials are also associated with family circumstances, namely for black workers. After accounting for education, labor market, and family covariates, social-psychological factors appear to explain only small portions of differences, especially for black and Hispanic.

DISCUSSION

This study clarifies how racial/ethnic disparities in socioeconomic circumstances generate advantages and disadvantages in retirement wealth accumulation. Lower DC retirement plan participation and contributions among minorities in work life represent an underappreciated earlier-life channel through which racial inequalities in income and wealth in later life are generated.

Are They Still Worth It? The Long-Run Earnings Benefits of an Associate Degree, Vocational Diploma or Certificate, and Some College

Sub-baccalaureate education accounts for most of the expansion in higher education over the last century. Nevertheless, relatively few studies have examined the related long-term financial benefits. Exploiting a rich dataset linking the Survey of Income and Program Participation and administrative earnings records, this study investigates these benefits over a person's early and mid-career and the heterogeneity of these patterns by field of study. We find substantial payoffs, net of an extensive set of demographic covariates and variables indicating high school courses taken. At the same time, we find considerable variation across degree types and fields of study. Several vocational diplomas, certificates, and associate degrees are associated with higher earnings than bachelor's degrees in social science, liberal arts, and education. Implications of these findings are discussed.

Longevity-Related Options for Social Security: a Microsimulation Approach to Retirement Age and Mortality Adjustments

We consider the distributional implications of Social Security policy changes in the context of increases in life expectancy and differential mortality. Using a robust microsimulation model, we examine how several options for raising the retirement age, including a scenario that applies a mortality adjustment in combination with such policies, affect different types of individuals and households. Policy changes are simulated for Social Security beneficiaries in 2030 using the Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT) microsimulation model. The analysis shows that increasing either the age at which individuals receive their full retirement benefit alone or the early eligibility and full retirement ages together result in across-the-board reductions in benefit levels. The policies are projected to result in slightly higher poverty, but the expected rise is sharper among groups known to experience higher rates of mortality, as well as many disadvantaged groups. Analysis of a hypothetical adjustment to offset the historical impacts of differential mortality by lifetime earnings on lifetime benefit receipt, when combined with these retirement age increases, shows varied results. While some groups of individuals experience sharper reductions in median monthly benefits, the adjustment has an offsetting and protective effect for the benefits of disadvantaged groups when combined with options that would raise the retirement age. This combined package of policies, as well as simulations that incorporate a behavioral adjustment in benefit claiming ages, result in an increase of less than one percentage point in the average poverty rate.

Immigrants' Economic Assimilation: Evidence from Longitudinal Earnings Records

We examine immigrants' earnings trajectories, and measure both the extent and speed with which they are able to reduce the earnings gap with natives, using a unique dataset that links respondents of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to their longitudinal earnings obtained from individual tax records. Our analysis addresses key debates regarding ethnoracial and cohort differences in immigrants' earnings trajectories. First, we find a racially-differentiated pattern of earnings assimilation whereby black and Hispanic immigrants are less able to catch up with native whites' earnings compared to white and Asian immigrants, but are able to almost reach earnings parity with natives of their same race and ethnicity. Second, we find no evidence of a declining "quality" of immigrant cohorts even after controlling for their ethnoracial composition and human capital. Immigrants arriving since 1994 actually experience similar or slightly higher earnings growth compared to immigrants from earlier eras. We identify a pattern of accelerated assimilation in which more educated immigrants experience much of their earnings growth during the first years after arriving.

The Distributional Impact of Social Security Policy Options

Using microsimulation, we estimate the effects of three policy proposals that would alter Social Security's eligibility rules or benefit structure to reflect changes in women's labor force activity, marital patterns, and differential mortality among the aged. First, we estimate a set of options related to the duration of marriage required to receive divorced spouse and survivor benefits. Second, we estimate the effects of an earnings sharing proposal with survivor benefits, in which benefits are based entirely on earned benefits with spouses sharing their earnings during years of marriage. Third, we estimate the effects of adjusting benefits to reflect the increasing differential life expectancy by lifetime earnings. The results advance our understanding of the distributional effects of these alternative policy options on projected benefits and retirement income, including poverty and supplemental poverty status, of divorced and widowed women aged 60 or older in 2030.

The Long-Term Health Implications of Marital Disruption: Divorce, Work Limits, and Social Security Disability Benefits Among Men

We provide new evidence on the long-term impact of divorce on work disability among U.S. men. Using data from the 2004 Survey of Income and Program Participation linked to U.S. Social Security Administration records, we assess the relationship between divorce and subsequent self-reports of work limitations and the receipt of federal disability benefits. The examination of self-reports and administrative records of medically qualified benefits provides dual confirmation of key relationships. We compare men who experienced a marital dissolution between 1975 and 1984 with continuously married men for 20 years following divorce using fixed-effects and propensity score matching models, and choose a sample to help control for selection into divorce. On average, we find that divorce is not associated with an increased probability of self-reported work limitations or receipt of disability benefits over the long run. However, among those who do not remarry, we do find that divorce increases men's long-term probability of both self-reported work limitations and federal disability benefit receipt. Lack of marital resources may drive this relationship. Alternative estimates that do not control for selection into divorce demonstrate that selection bias can substantially alter findings regarding the relationship between marital status changes and subsequent health.

Work Disability among Women: The Role of Divorce in a Retrospective Cohort Study

We assess how divorce through midlife affects the subsequent probability of work-limiting health among U.S. women. Using retrospective marital and work disability histories from the Survey of Income and Program Participation matched to Social Security earnings records, we identify women whose first marriage dissolved between 1975 and 1984 (n = 1,214) and women who remain continuously married (n = 3,394). Probit and propensity score matching models examine the cumulative probability of a work disability over a 20-year follow-up period. We find that divorce is associated with a significantly higher cumulative probability of a work disability, controlling for a range of factors. This association is strongest among divorced women who do not remarry. No consistent relationships are observed among divorced women who remarry and remained married. We find that economic hardship, work history, and selection into divorce influence, but do not substantially alter, the lasting impact of divorce on work-limiting health.

Field of Study in College and Lifetime Earnings in the United States

Our understanding about the relationship between education and lifetime earnings often neglects differences by field of study. Utilizing data that matches respondents in the Survey of Income and Program Participation to their longitudinal earnings records based on administrative tax information, we investigate the trajectories of annual earnings following the same individuals over 20 years and then estimate the long-term effects of field of study on earnings for U.S. men and women. Our results provide new evidence revealing large lifetime earnings gaps across field of study. We show important differences in individuals' earnings trajectories across the different stages of the work-life by field of study. In addition, the gaps in 40-year (i.e., ages 20 to 59) median lifetime earnings among college graduates by field of study are larger, in many instances, than the median gap between high school graduates and college graduates overall. Significant variation is also found among graduate degree holders. Our results uncover important similarities and differences between men and women with regard to the long-term earnings differentials associated with field of study. In general, these findings underscore field of study as a critical dimension of horizontal stratification in educational attainment. Other implications of the empirical findings are also discussed.

Education and Lifetime Earnings in the United States

Differences in lifetime earnings by educational attainment have been of great research and policy interest. Although a large literature examines earnings differences by educational attainment, research on lifetime earnings--which refers to total accumulated earnings from entry into the labor market until retirement--remains limited because of the paucity of adequate data. Using data that match respondents in the Survey of Income and Program Participation to their longitudinal tax earnings as recorded by the Social Security Administration, we estimate the 50-year work career effects of education on lifetime earnings for men and women. By overcoming the purely synthetic cohort approach, our results provide a more realistic appraisal of actual patterns of lifetime earnings. Detailed estimates are provided for gross lifetime earnings by education; net lifetime earnings after controlling for covariates associated with the probability of obtaining a bachelor's degree; and the net present 50-year lifetime value of education at age 20. In addition, we provide estimates that include individuals with zero earnings and disability. We also assess the adequacy of the purely synthetic cohort approach, which uses age differences in earnings observed in cross-sectional surveys to approximate lifetime earnings. Overall, our results confirm the persistent positive effects of higher education on earnings over different stages of the work career and over a lifetime, but also reveal notably smaller net effects on lifetime earnings compared with previously reported estimates. We discuss the implications of these and other findings.

Are proxy interviews associated with biased earnings reports? Marital status and gender effects of proxy

Social science findings routinely rely on proxy-reported economic data in household surveys. A typical assumption is that this information is not biased compared to self-reports, but empirical findings on the issue are mixed. Using a dataset that links workers in the 2004 Survey of Income and Program Participation to their W-2 tax records, we estimate the effects of reporting status (proxy vs. self) on the magnitude and direction of measurement bias in earnings data and explore whether these effects are heterogeneous across gender and marital status. A slight downward bias in proxy-reported earnings is observed; however, these effects are associated with demographic variables. For married workers, proxies do not contribute substantial bias in earnings measurement regardless of the target respondent's gender. However, for single female workers, proxy interviews are a significant source of downward bias in earnings estimates. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Contribution dynamics in defined contribution pension plans during the great recession of 2007-2009

We investigate changes in workers' participation and contributions to defined contribution (DC) plans during the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Using longitudinal information from W-2 tax records matched to a nationally representative sample of respondents from the Survey ofl Income and Program Participation, we find that the recent economic downturn had a considerable impact on workers' participation and contributions to DC plans. Thirty-nine percent of 2007 participants decreased contributions to DC plans by more than 10 percent during the Great Recession. Our findings highlight the interrelationship between the dynamics in DC contributions and earnings changes. Participants experiencing a decrease in earnings of more than 10 percent were not only more likely to stop contributing by 2009 than those with stable earnings (30 percent versus 9 percent), but they also decreased their contributions substantially (-$1,839 versus -$129). The proportion of workers who decreased or stopped contributions during the crisis exceeded the proportion observed prior to it (2005-2007).

The implications of marital history change on women's eligibility for Social Security wife and widow benefits, 1990-2009

Social Security retirement benefits in the United States (US) reflect marital histories and lifetime earnings of current and former married couples. Focusing on the link between marital history and benefit eligibility, this article examines women's marital patterns over the past two decades. Using the 1990 and 2009 Marital History Modules to the Census Bureau's Survey of Income and Program Participation, descriptive/regression analysis reveals substantial changes in women's marital patterns among baby boomers and generation Xers. Those changes have prompted a decline in qualifying marital histories for Social Security spouse and widow benefits. The findings also reveal substantial variation by race/ethnicity. Black women are significantly more likely to be potentially ineligible for a marriage-based benefit than white women, particularly in more recent cohorts. Hispanic women's marriage-based eligibility is between that of black and white women. US-born Hispanic women had higher shares without a qualifying marital history compared with the foreign born.

A profile of social security child beneficiaries and their families: sociodemographic and economic characteristics

Using a rich dataset that links the Census Bureau's Survey of Income and Program Participation calendar-year 2004 file with Social Security benefit records, this article provides a portrait of the sociodemographic and economic characteristics of Social Security child beneficiaries. We find that the incidence ofbenefit receipt in the child population differs substantially across individual and family-level characteristics. Average benefit amounts also vary across subgroups and benefit types. The findings provide a better understanding of the importance of Social Security to families with beneficiary children. Social Security is a major source of family income for many child beneficiaries, particularly among those with low income or family heads with lower education and labor earnings.

Lowering social security's duration-of-marriage requirement: distributional effects for future female retirees

A number of alternatives to Social Security's auxiliary benefit system have been proposed in the context of changes in American family and work patterns. This article focuses on one modification therein-lowering the 10-year duration-of-marriage requirement for divorced spouses. Using a powerful microsimulation model (MINT), we examine the distributional effects of extending spouse and survivor benefit eligibility to 5- and 7-year marriages ending in divorce among female retirees in 2030, a population largely comprised of baby boomers. Results show that the options would increase benefits for a small share of female retirees, around 2 to 4%, and would not affect the vast majority of low-income divorced older women. However, of those affected, the options would substantially increase benefits and lower incidence of poverty and near poor. Low-income divorced retirees with marriages between 5 and 9 years in length and a deceased former spouse face the greatest potential gains.

Earnings sharing in the U.S. Social Security system: a microsimulation analysis of future female retirees

PURPOSE

As part of an ongoing effort to analyze the distributional implications of potential policy reforms to the U.S. Social Security system, we consider the widely discussed reform of earnings sharing. Such an approach has been viewed as a way to "update" Social Security's family benefits based on marital status and as a means to make the system more marriage neutral.

DESIGN AND METHODS

We use the Social Security Administration's Modeling Income in the Near Term model to simulate the distributional effects of two earnings sharing alternatives, a basic option and a modified inheritance option, on the projected retiree population in 2030. We focus our analysis on uncovering how different subgroups of women would be affected under the alternative system.

RESULTS

Widows and surviving divorced women, particularly those in lower socioeconomic groups, would face some of the steepest benefit decreases. Adding an inheritance provision would mitigate reductions across the board; however, it may not provide as much benefit adequacy to widows as might be expected.

IMPLICATION

Certain groups of women would fare far better under the current Social Security system than under earnings sharing. Linking benefits with earnings sharing would be particularly problematic for lower income widows and single-earner married couples. Never-married persons are unaffected.

Retiring in debt? An update on the 2007 near-retiree cohort

This research note uses 2007 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) data to update the authors' work reported in a prior article, which used earlier data to assess debt levels among households approaching retirement in 1995 and 2004. The authors assess whether there have been changes in the debt holdings of near-retirees in 2007, a point in time reflecting the start of the recent financial and economic crisis. Results show that debt levels of near-retirees were modestly higher in 2007 than in 2004, overall and across several subgroups. The results reinforce a general finding of the original article that current near-retirees, primarily baby boomers, are approaching retirement with more debt compared with their counterparts in the mid-1990s. Because the 2007 SCF data captures only the beginning of the current recession, the authors expect future trends to differ from the results presented here.

Marital History, Race, and Social Security Spouse and Widow Benefit Eligibility in the United States

Large-scale changes in American family structures over the past decades have important implications for the retirement experiences of women. In this study, the authors use a restricted-use file of the Marital History Module of the U.S. Census Bureau's Survey of Income and Program Participation to investigate changes in the marital histories of women aged 40 to 69 years between 1990 and 2004, with a focus on outcomes relevant for Social Security spouse and widow benefit eligibility. Multinomial and binary logistic regression analyses show significant changes in women's marital patterns since 1990, with more substantial shifts occurring among recent cohorts. Due to downward trends in marriage, the authors find a modest decline in Social Security spouse and widow benefit eligibility in 2004, particularly among Black women born toward the end of the baby boom generation.

Retiring in debt? Differences between the 1995 and 2004 near-retiree cohorts

This article uses the Federal Reserve Board's Survey of Consumer Finances to examine the debt holdings of near-retirees (aged 50-61) in 1995 and 2004. Employing a variety of measures of household borrowing, we find that near-retirees in 2004-the leading edge of the baby-boom cohort--had more consumer and housing debt than their counterparts in 1995. We observe a modest increase in the median debt service and debt-to-assets ratios between the two cohorts, but no statistical difference in the average ratios. Analysis of several demographic and socioeconomic subgroups reveals certain population segments, such as households headed by single women, with significantly higher debt service ratios in 2004. We discuss the implications of these trends for the retirement income security of older baby boomers and suggest further avenues of research.

Earnings sharing in Social Security: projected impacts of alternative proposals using the MINT model

Changes in American family and work patterns over the past decades have prompted various policy proposals for changing the structure of Social Security benefits. In this article, we use the Social Security Administration's Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT) microsimulation model to project how Social Security benefit amounts would change in response to incorporating earnings sharing into benefit calculations for the population aged 62 or older in 2030 under three hypothetical policy scenarios. The earnings sharing scenarios modeled in the article would reduce benefits for the majority of individuals, although there are important differences among married, divorced, and widowed individuals. Some groups of men and women would experience increases in Social Security benefits, while some would receive reduced benefits in comparison to current law, particularly widowed individuals. Allowing widows to inherit the earnings records of their deceased husbands would improve their outcomes.