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P785Unplanned readmissions after discharge increases risk of death in acute dyspnoea patients: non-cardiac is as severe as cardiac causes. Eur Heart J 2019. [DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehz747.0384] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Introduction
Acute dyspnoea is a major reason for admission to the emergency department and has been associated with high rates of readmission and mortality. However, the association of readmission with mortality risk has not been widely studied in patients with acute dyspnoea.
Purpose
To determine whether unplanned readmission during first 6 months after discharge is associated with greater risk of death within 1 year in patients with acute dyspnoea.
Methods
Derivation cohort consisted of 1371 patients from the prospective observational study, which enrolled acute dyspnoea patients admitted to emergency departments of two university centres from 2015 to 2017 and discharged alive from the hospital. Cox regression analysis compared 1-year risk of death between readmitted vs. non-readmitted patients in the first 6 months after discharge. In addition, we studied this association in 1986 patients from a multicentre validation cohort, which included acute dyspnoea patients from 2006 to 2014. Sensitivity analysis was done in the subgroups divided by cause of index admission (acute heart failure [AHF] and non-AHF) and cause of the first readmission (cardiovascular [CV] or non-CV). The statistical analyses were performed using R statistical software. P value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant.
Results
In the derivation cohort 666 (49%) of patients were readmitted at 6 months and 282 (21%) died in 1 year. Readmitted patients died more frequently than non-readmitted patients (211 [32%] vs. 71 [10%], respectively, p<0.001). All-cause 6-month readmission was associated with an increased 1-year risk of death in a multivariate analysis in both the derivation cohort (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 3 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.2–4], p<0.001) and the validation cohort (aHR 1.8 [95% CI 1.4–2.2], p<0.001). Moreover, deleterious effect of readmission on 1-year survival was equally observed in AHF and non-AHF patients, independent of whether the reason of first readmission was cardiovascular or non-CV, in both study cohorts. The results are displayed in Figure 1.
Figure 1. Main results of the study
Conclusions
Our data demonstrates that readmission is associated with a markedly increased risk of death within 1 year in patients presenting to the emergency department with acute dyspnoea. Furthermore, the detrimental relationship between outcomes is similar in non-cardiac and cardiac causes.
Acknowledgement/Funding
The work was supported by the Research Council of Lithuania, grant Nr. MIP-049/2015 and approved by Lithuanian Bioethics Committee, Nr. L-15-01.
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P1656Incremental value of interleukin-6 and C-reactive protein to the MEESSI acute heart failure risk score. Eur Heart J 2019. [DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehz748.0414] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Background
The MEESSI-acute heart failure (AHF) risk score has high accuracy in the prediction of 30-day mortality in patients presenting with AHF and may be considered the current gold standard for this indication.
Purpose
As the original MEESSI model does not include measurements of inflammatory biomarkers, the impact of interleukin-6 or C-reactive protein (CRP) on the model's goodness of fit is unknown.
Methods
In a prospective multicenter diagnostic study the presence of AHF was centrally adjudicated by two independent cardiologists among patients presenting with acute dyspnea to the ED. The MEESSI-AHF risk score was calculated using a recalibrated model containing 12 independent risk factors. The incremental value of interleukin-6 and CRP was examined by the use of logistic regression analysis and enter method variable selection with an entry criterion of p<0.05. Goodness of fit tests were performed to measure the updated model's discrimination and calibration.
Results
In 1247 patients with adjudicated AHF, the MEESSI-AHF risk score was calculated. Of these, 1113 patients (89.3%) had available measurements of interleukin-6 and CRP. In the logistic regression analysis both biomarkers had a highly significant impact on the MEESSI model (p<0.001, respectively). Compared to the original MEESSI-Model (c-statistic, 0.79 (95% CI, 0.75–0.83)) the addition of interleukin-6 (c-statistic, 0.81 (95% CI, 0.77–0.85)) or CRP (c-statistic, 0.83 (95% CI, 0.79–0.86)) significantly improved the model's discrimination (p=0.022 and p=0.011, respectively). When assessing the cumulative mortality, the gradient in 30-day mortality over six predefined risk groups was increased by addition of interleukin-6 or CRP. 30-day mortality rates in the lowest and highest risk groups of the original model were 0.4% and 32.5% compared to 0% and 34.9% in the model updated with interleukin-6 and 0.6% and 37.6% in the model updated with CRP. All compared models showed good overall calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.302 (original model), p=0.136 (model updated by interleukin-6) and p=0.902 (model updated by CRP)).
Discrimination original_updated
Conclusion
There is significant incremental value of interleukin-6 and CRP to the MEESSI score as indicated by the improved goodness of fit compared to the original model.
Acknowledgement/Funding
European Union, the Swiss National Science Foundation, the Swiss Heart Foundation, the Cardiovascular Research Foundation Basel,
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