Associations between air pollutants and blood pressure in an ethnically diverse cohort of adolescents in London, England

Longitudinal evidence on the association between air pollution and blood pressure (BP) in adolescence is scarce. We explored this association in an ethnically diverse cohort of schoolchildren. Sex-stratified, linear random-effects modelling was used to examine how modelled residential exposure to annual average nitrogen dioxide (NO2), particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10) and ozone (O3), measures in μg/m3, associated with blood pressure. Estimates were based on 3,284 adolescents; 80% from ethnic minority groups, recruited from 51 schools, and followed up from 11-13 to 14-16 years old. Ethnic minorities were exposed to higher modelled annual average concentrations of pollution at residential postcode level than their White UK peers. A two-pollutant model (NO2 & PM2.5), adjusted for ethnicity, age, anthropometry, and pubertal status, highlighted associations with systolic, but not diastolic BP. A μg/m3 increase in NO2 was associated with a 0.30 mmHg (95% CI 0.18 to 0.40) decrease in systolic BP for girls and 0.19 mmHg (95% CI 0.07 to 0.31) decrease in systolic BP for boys. In contrast, a 1 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was associated with 1.34 mmHg (95% CI 0.85 to 1.82) increase in systolic BP for girls and 0.57 mmHg (95% CI 0.04 to 1.03) increase in systolic BP for boys. Associations did not vary by ethnicity, body size or socio-economic advantage. Associations were robust to adjustments for noise levels and lung function at 11-13 years. In summary, higher ambient levels of NO2 were associated with lower and PM2.5 with higher systolic BP across adolescence, with stronger associations for girls.

Geographic distribution and environmental risk factors of lymphoma in dogs under primary-care in the UK

OBJECTIVES

To integrate external data sources with VetCompass postcode data to explore the spatial distribution and examine potential associations with environmental risk factors in dogs diagnosed with lymphoma at primary care veterinary practices.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Cases of lymphoma were identified from electronic patient records of 455,553 dogs under primary veterinary care during 2013 in the UK. Cases were defined as either laboratory-confirmed or non-laboratory-confirmed. Disease maps at the postcode-district level were used to define the geographic distribution of lymphoma incidence and spatial clustering was explored. Environmental risk factors from external data sources were transferred to a compatible format and logistic regression modelling was used to examine associations between environmental herbicide, fungicide and radon concentrations with lymphoma.

RESULTS

From the denominator population of 455,553 dogs, 279 lymphoma cases (187 with laboratory confirmation and 93 without) were identified. Heterogeneous geographic variation was observed with weak evidence of clustering around London and the south-west of England. Herbicide and fungicide exposures were weakly associated with a diagnosis of lymphoma in the univariable analysis. After accounting for the age at diagnosis and breed in the multivariable analysis, herbicide exposure was associated with a diagnosis of lymphoma.

CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The heterogeneous distribution of lymphoma in UK dogs provides further evidence for geographic variation of lymphoma, perhaps in part associated with underlying environmental risk factors. The results suggest an association between environmental herbicide and canine lymphoma.

Inequalities in rural communities: adapting national deprivation indices for rural settings

Background

Deprivation indices have been widely used in healthcare research and planning in the United Kingdom. Existing indices, however, are dominated by characteristics of urban populations that may be less relevant in capturing the nature of rural deprivation. We explore if deprivation indices can be modified to make them more sensitive to displaying rural disadvantage in England.

Methods

The analysis focussed on the 2011 Carstairs Index (Carstairs2011) and the 2010 English Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD2010). We removed all urban areas as identified by the Office for National Statistics Rural–Urban Area Classifications and mapped the Carstairs2011 and IMD2010 across the remaining rural areas using rural-specific quintiles.

Results

Our method was effective in displaying much greater heterogeneity in rural areas than was apparent in the original indices. We received positive feedback from Directors of Public Health who confirmed that the observed patterns mirror their experiences and first-hand knowledge on the ground.

Conclusions

Our maps of Carstairs2011 and IMD2010 for rural areas might strengthen the evidence base for rural planning and service provision. The modified deprivation indices, however, were not specifically formulated for rural populations and further work is needed to explore alternative input variables to produce a more rural-specific measure of deprivation.

Bayesian spatial modelling for quasi-experimental designs: An interrupted time series study of the opening of Municipal Waste Incinerators in relation to infant mortality and sex ratio

BACKGROUND

There is limited evidence on potential health risks from Municipal Waste Incinerators (MWIs), and previous studies on birth outcomes show inconsistent results. Here, we evaluate whether the opening of MWIs is associated with infant mortality and sex ratio in the surrounding areas, extending the Interrupted Time Series (ITS) methodological approach to account for spatial dependencies at the small area level.

METHODS

We specified a Bayesian hierarchical model to investigate the annual risks of infant mortality and sex-ratio (female relative to male) within 10 km of eight MWIs in England and Wales, during the period 1996-2012. We included comparative areas matched one-to-one of similar size and area characteristics.

RESULTS

During the study period, infant mortality rates decreased overall by 2.5% per year in England. The opening of an incinerator in the MWI area was associated with -8 deaths per 100,000 infants (95% CI -62, 40) and with a difference in sex ratio of -0.004 (95% CI -0.02, 0.01), comparing the period after opening with that before, corrected for before-after trends in the comparator areas.

CONCLUSION

Our method is suitable for the analysis of quasi-experimental time series studies in the presence of spatial structure and when there are global time trends in the outcome variable. Based on our approach, we do not find evidence of an association of MWI opening with changes in risks of infant mortality or sex ratio in comparison with control areas.

International scale implementation of the CNOSSOS-EU road traffic noise prediction model for epidemiological studies

The EU-FP7-funded BioSHaRE project is using individual-level data pooled from several national cohort studies in Europe to investigate the relationship of road traffic noise and health. The detailed input data (land cover and traffic characteristics) required for noise exposure modelling are not always available over whole countries while data that are comparable in spatial resolution between different countries is needed for harmonised exposure assessment. Here, we assess the feasibility using the CNOSSOS-EU road traffic noise prediction model with coarser input data in terms of model performance. Starting with a model using the highest resolution datasets, we progressively introduced lower resolution data over five further model runs and compared noise level estimates to measurements. We conclude that a low resolution noise model should provide adequate performance for exposure ranking (Spearman's rank = 0.75; p < 0.001), but with relatively large errors in predicted noise levels (RMSE = 4.46 dB(A)).