Exploring variations in recommended first-choice therapy for complicated urinary tract infections in males: Insights from outpatient settings across age, race, and ethnicity

INTRODUCTION

There are known disparities in the treatment of infectious diseases. However, disparities in treatment of complicated urinary tract infections (UTIs) are largely uninvestigated.

OBJECTIVES

We characterized UTI treatment among males in Veterans Affairs (VA) outpatient settings by age, race, and ethnicity and identified demographic characteristics predictive of recommended first-choice antibiotic therapy.

METHODS

We conducted a national, retrospective cohort study of male VA patients diagnosed with a UTI and dispensed an outpatient antibiotic from January 2010 through December 2020. Recommended first-choice therapy for complicated UTI was defined as use of a recommended first-line antibiotic drug choice regardless of area of involvement (ciprofloxacin, levofloxacin, or sulfamethoxazole/trimethoprim) and a recommended duration of 7 to 10 days of therapy. Multivariable models were used to identify demographic predictors of recommended first-choice therapy (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] > 1).

RESULTS

We identified a total of 157,898 males diagnosed and treated for a UTI in the outpatient setting. The average antibiotic duration was 9.4 days (±standard deviation [SD] 4.6), and 47.6% of patients were treated with ciprofloxacin, 25.1% with sulfamethoxazole/trimethoprim, 7.6% with nitrofurantoin, and 6.6% with levofloxacin. Only half of the male patients (50.6%, n = 79,928) were treated with recommended first-choice therapy (first-line drug choice and appropriate duration); 77.6% (n = 122,590) were treated with a recommended antibiotic choice and 65.9% (n = 104,070) with a recommended duration. Age 18-49 years (aOR 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.11) versus age ≥65 years was the only demographic factor predictive of recommended first-choice therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Nearly half of the patients included in this study did not receive recommended first-choice therapies; however, racial and ethnic disparities were not identified. Underutilization of recommended first-choice antibiotic therapy in complicated UTIs continues to be an area of focus for antimicrobial stewardship programs.

Characteristics and End-of-Life Care Pathways of Decedents From a National Cohort of Assisted Living Residents

BACKGROUND

Assisted living (AL) is an increasingly common, place of care for dying persons. However, it remains unclear to what extent residents are able to age in place or if AL represents an additional transition before death.

OBJECTIVES

Examine the sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities, health care utilization, and end-of-life care pathways of AL residents before death.

RESEARCH DESIGN

A national cohort study of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries residing in large AL communities (25+ beds) during the month of January 2017 with 3 years of follow-up, using administrative claims data.

SUBJECTS

268,812 AL residents.

MEASURES

Sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities, and health care utilization at the end of life.

RESULTS

Between 2017 and 2019, 35.1% of the study cohort died. Decedents were more likely than the overall AL population to be 85 years old or older (76.5% vs. 59.5%), and diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease and related dementia (70.3% vs. 51.6%). Most decedents (96.2%) had some presence in AL during the last year of life, but over 1 in 5 left AL before the last month of life. Among those in AL on day 30 before death, nearly half (46.4%) died in place without any health care transition, while 13.2% had 3 or more transfers before dying.

CONCLUSIONS

AL is an important place of care for dying persons, especially for those with dementia. These findings indicate a need to assess existing policies and processes guiding the care of the frail and vulnerable population of dying AL residents.

State Regulations and Assisted Living Residents' Potentially Burdensome Transitions at the End of Life

Background: Potentially burdensome transitions at the end of life (e.g., repeated hospitalizations toward the end of life and/or health care transitions in the last three days of life) are common among residential care/assisted living (RC/AL) residents, and are associated with lower quality of end-of-life care reported by bereaved family members. We examined the association between state RC/AL regulations relevant to end-of-life care delivery and the likelihood of residents experiencing potentially burdensome transitions. Methods: Retrospective cohort study combining RC/AL registries of states' regulations with Medicare claims data for residents in large RC/ALs (i.e., 25+ beds) in the United States on the 120th day before death (N = 129,153), 2017-2019. Independent variables were state RC/AL regulations relevant to end-of-life care, including third-party services, staffing, and medication management. Analyses included: (1) separate logistic regression models for each RC/AL regulation, adjusting for sociodemographic covariates; (2) separate logistic regression models with a Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) subgroup to control for comorbidities, and (3) multivariable regression analysis, including all regulations in both the overall sample and the Medicare FFS subgroup. Results: We found a lack of associations between potentially burdensome transitions and regulations regarding third-party services and staffing. There were small associations found between regulations related to medication management (i.e., requiring regular medication reviews, permitting direct care workers for injections, requiring/not requiring licensed nursing staff for injections) and potentially burdensome transitions. Conclusions: In this cross-sectional study, the associations of RC/AL regulations with potentially burdensome transitions were either small or not statistically significant, calling for more studies to explain the wide variation observed in end-of-life outcomes among RC/AL residents.

TEXAS NURSING HOMES INCREASED DIRECT-CARE STAFFING LEVELS DURING WINTER STORM URI

Prior work suggests that nursing homes (NHs) increase their registered nurse (RN), licensed practical nurse (LPN), and certified nursing assistant (CNA) staffing levels in anticipation of a major hurricane. However, less is known about NHs’ ability to increase staffing levels during a winter storm. We examined RN, LPN, and CNA staffing levels in 1,170 Texas NHs during Winter Storm Uri from February 13-20, 2021. This storm was characterized by cold temperatures and snow/ice accretion that affected the Texas power grid. Linear mixed effects models were adjusted for profit status, continuing-care retirement community status, resident census, overall star rating, a weighted deficiency score, number of citations for infection control, number of substantiated complaints, and county fixed-effects. After adjustment, Texas NHs decreased RN (β=-0.005;b=-0.002;p=.004) but increased LPN (β=0.022;b=0.009;p<.001) and CNA (β=0.044;b=0.026;p<.001) staffing levels. NHs face unprecedented challenges during winter storms, including maintaining adequate staffing levels to meet the needs of their residents.

PROFILE OF DECEDENTS FROM A NATIONAL COHORT OF ASSISTED LIVING RESIDENTS

An increasing number of older adults reside in assisted living (AL) toward the end of life, and it remains unclear if this trend represents an additional place of care and end-of-life transition before eventual nursing home admission. Our objective was to examine the characteristics and healthcare utilization of AL residents who died during a two-year follow-up. We conducted a prospective cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries residing in large AL communities (25+ beds) in January 2017, and followed them until the end of 2018 using a variety of administrative healthcare claims data. The national population of Medicare beneficiaries in AL included 273,722 fee-for-service (FFS) beneficiaries, and 143,258 Medicare Advantage beneficiaries. From 2017 to the end of 2018, 23.7% of residents died. Of the 66,605 FFS Medicare beneficiaries who died during follow-up, 77.0% were 85 years old or older, 72.2% were diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease and related dementia (ADRD) and 80.8% were diagnosed with heart failure or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Most FFS decedents (97.3%) resided in AL during their last 12 months of life, with 23.0% leaving AL before the last month of life. Half of FFS decedents died in AL, while another 24.1% died in a nursing home. AL communities represent an increasingly common place of end-of-life care for dying Medicare beneficiaries. These findings point to the need for state and federal policies to protect a growing population of frail and vulnerable AL residents.

USING THE INSTITUTE OF HEALTHCARE IMPROVEMENT'S 4M FRAMEWORK TO IMPROVE DISASTER PREPAREDNESS FOR NH POPULATIONS

Prior studies have repeatedly demonstrated that exposure to natural disasters such as hurricanes, earthquakes, and flooding events have profound effects on nursing home (NH) residents. Previous efforts to improve disaster preparedness have often been predicated on the decision to evacuate or shelter in place from a disaster. Unfortunately, evacuation of NH residents is often not possible and nursing homes are often required to make difficult decisions to protect the lives of their residents without data. Recognizing that healthcare systems increasingly provide care for complex individuals; the Institute of Healthcare Improvement (IHI) and the John H. Hartford Foundation introduced a framework for evaluating age-friendly healthcare systems based on 4 evidence-based core elements that matter to older adults. We believe that this 4 M’s paradigm: What Matters, Medication, Mentation, and Mobility, provides a step off point for defining a practical approach to disaster preparedness for nursing homes exposed to future disasters.

ASSOCIATION BETWEEN EXPOSURE TO HURRICANE HARVEY AND MORTALITY AMONG NURSING HOME RESIDENTS

Hurricane Harvey made landfall in Southeast Texas in August 2017, causing catastrophic flooding. We examined the association between exposure to Hurricane Harvey and rates of 30-and 90-day mortality among Texas nursing home residents. Using Medicare data, we compared a cohort of residents exposed to the storm in 2017 (n= 18,693) to a cohort of residents not exposed to the storm in 2015 (n=19,688). We fit generalized estimating equations with a sandwich estimator, adjusting for resident demographic and clinical characteristics. Exposure to Hurricane Harvey was not associated with 30-day rates of mortality. However, it was associated with a 15% increase in the odds of dying at 90 days holding resident characteristics constant (adjusted odds ratio: 1.15 [95% Confidence interval: 1.06, 1.25). Health effects due to severe flooding, such as those related to decreased ability to manage chronic conditions, may not be apparent until several weeks after the storm.

REGULATORY PROFILES AND POTENTIALLY BURDENSOME TRANSITIONS AMONG ASSISTED LIVING DECEDENTS

Potentially burdensome transitions at the end of life (i.e. repeated hospitalizations or transitions in the last 3 days of life) are common among assisted living (AL) residents, and are associated with lower care satisfaction by family members. AL regulations vary widely within and between states. This study aimed to describe the rate of burdensome transitions by AL regulatory profile, using a retrospective cohort study combining state AL regulations and multiple administrative claims data. The sample included 4,911 ALs serving 67,319 residents, who 1) died between 2017 and 2019; 2) resided in AL 120 days before death; 3) were continuously enrolled as fee-for-service one-year before death; and 4) resided in ALs with 25+ beds. The independent variable was a categorical variable indicating AL regulatory profile (i.e. housing, hybrid, hospitality, healthcare, rebalancing, hybrid healthcare), identified with a previously published methodology. These profiles differ in the allowance of third-party services, skilled nursing, medication administration, and requirements for medication review and licensed nursing staff. We first ran regression models to estimate the rate of burdensome transitions, accounting for AL-level resident demographic, socioeconomic, case-mix, and market characteristics. Results showed ‘hybrid’ ALs (i.e. low prevalence of skilled nursing allowed) had the highest rate of burdensome transitions (24.9%), whereas ‘healthcare’ ALs (i.e. high specificity for all types of services) had the lowest rate (22.2%). The rate of potentially burdensome transitions did not differ much by AL regulatory types, requiring more work to determine the drivers for burdensome transitions beyond AL regulations.

HOSPICE UTILIZATION AMONG LONG-STAY NURSING HOME RESIDENTS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has had significant impacts on nursing home residents. This study aims to examine how hospice utilization changed among long-stay nursing home residents between January and September in 2020, as compared with the same period in 2019, nationally. Design: A retrospective cohort study of residents present in US nursing homes as long-stay as of January 1st, 2019 and 2020, respectively. A subgroup of residents who died from January to September in each year was also examined. We utilized the Minimum Data and multiple administrative claims data. We compared hospice utilization rate between 2019 and 2020 nationally and by state.Outcomes: This study examined: 1) any hospice utilization among long-stay residents from January to September in 2019 and 2020 respectively, and 2) hospice utilization in the last 30 days of life among the decedent subgroup, which we also tracked as a factor of percent change in mortality rate at the state level.

Results

The hospice utilization rate among long-stay residents was 19.4% in 2019 and 19.7% in 2020. The rate was 27.5% in 2019 and 24.2% in 2020 among the decedent subgroup (χ2=553.1, p< 0.001), although the absolute number of decedents using hospice in the last 30 days of life was higher in 2020 than 2019. Substantial state variation in hospice utilization was observed, mostly following patterns in community-level infections.

Conclusions

Hospice managed to continue service delivery despite many challenges. The pandemic highlights the importance of integrating hospice and palliative care into emergency preparedness planning.

Provision of Air Conditioning and Heat-Related Mortality in Texas Prisons

IMPORTANCE

There is a large body of epidemiologic evidence that heat is associated with increased risk of mortality. One of the most effective strategies to mitigate the effects of heat is through air conditioning (AC); Texas regulates the internal temperature of jails to stay between 65 and 85 °F degrees, but these same standards do not apply to state and private prisons.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze whether heat during warm months is associated with an increased risk of mortality in Texas prisons without AC.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This case-crossover study included individuals who died in Texas prisons between 2001 and 2019. The association of heat in warm months with mortality in Texas prisons with and without AC was estimated. Data analysis was conducted from January to April 2022.

EXPOSURES

Increasing daily heat index above 85 °F and extreme heat days (days above the 90th percentile heat index for the prison location).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Daily mortality in Texas prisons.

RESULTS

There were 2083 and 1381 deaths in prisons without and with AC, respectively, during warm months from 2001 to 2019. Most of the deceased were male (3339 of 3464 [96%]) and the median (IQR) age at death was 54 (45-62) years. A 1-degree increase above 85 °F heat index and an extreme heat day were associated with a 0.7% (95% CI, 0.1%-1.3%) and a 15.1% (95% CI, 1.3%-30.8%) increase in the risk of mortality in prisons without AC, respectively. Approximately 13% of mortality or 271 deaths may be attributable to extreme heat during warm months between 2001 to 2019 in Texas prison facilities without AC. In prisons with AC, a negative percentage change in mortality risk was observed, although the 95% CI crossed zero (percentage change in mortality risk: -0.6%; 95% CI, -1.6% to 0.5%). The estimates in prisons without AC were statistically different than the estimates in prisons with AC (P = .05).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study found an average of 14 deaths per year between 2001 to 2019 were associated with heat in Texas prisons without AC vs no deaths associated with heat in prisons with AC. Adopting an AC policy in Texas prisons may be important for protecting the health of one of our most vulnerable populations.

Antimicrobial Prescribing in the Telehealth Setting: Framework for Stewardship During a Period of Rapid Acceleration Within Primary Care

Antibiotic resistance is a global public health threat. The use of telehealth in primary care presents unique barriers to antimicrobial stewardship, including limited physical examination and changes to the patient-provider relationship. Since the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, there is a need to identify novel antimicrobial stewardship strategies with an explosion in the use of telehealth within primary care. Our review proposes a tailored, sustainable approach to antimicrobial prescribing in the telehealth setting based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Core Elements of Outpatient Antibiotic Stewardship: commitment, action for policy and practice; tracking and reporting; and education and expertise. The rapid growth of telehealth for all types of primary care visits (not just antibiotic use) is outpacing knowledge associated with strategies for antimicrobial stewardship. Improving antibiotic use within primary care settings is critical as telehealth will remain a priority whether the COVID-19 pandemic recedes, particularly within patient populations with limited access to healthcare.

Findings from Talking Tech: A Technology Training Pilot Intervention to Reduce Loneliness and Social Isolation among Homebound Older Adults

Background and Objectives

Social isolation and loneliness are common among older adults and associated with negative health outcomes including cognitive decline, depression, suicide ideation, and mortality. Information and communication technology interventions are often used to combat loneliness and social isolation; however, homebound older adults face barriers to access. This study reports findings from a novel pilot intervention, called Talking Tech, designed to reduce loneliness and social isolation in homebound older adults by providing one-on-one, in-home technology training, a tablet, and the internet, to promote digital literacy and participation in a virtual senior center.

Research Design and Methods

Twenty-one homebound older adults participated in this 14-week, volunteer-delivered program. We used qualitative interviews with participants, volunteers, and program staff, weekly progress reports from volunteers, and quantitative pre- and postintervention surveys with participants to examine experiences and to evaluate the impact of the intervention on loneliness and social isolation. Qualitative data were analyzed using content analysis and pre- and postintervention survey data were compared.

Results

Participants reported increased technological literacy and use, increased access to online activities, and improved facilitation of social connections to existing and new networks. Additionally, during interviews, many participants reported that participating in Talking Tech alleviated their loneliness. While not statistically significant, our quantitative analysis revealed trends toward decreased participant feelings of loneliness and increased technology use. Additionally, intervention adoption and retention were high, with only one participant withdrawing from the intervention.

Discussion and Implications

This evaluation of the novel Talking Tech pilot intervention provides critical insights into strategies to reduce loneliness and isolation for older adults, with implications for future research, policy, and practice. Findings demonstrate that individualized technology training may be an acceptable way to improve well-being for homebound older adults.

State Variation in Potentially Burdensome Transitions Among Assisted Living Residents at the End of Life

This cohort study uses Medicare administrative claims data to describe potentially burdensome transitions among assisted living residents at the end of life and assesses variations by US state.

State Regulations and Hospice Utilization in Assisted Living during the Last Month of Life

OBJECTIVES

To examine the association between hospice/staffing regulations in residential care or assisted living (RC/AL) and hospice utilization among a national cohort of Medicare decedents residing in RC/AL at least 1 day during the last month of life, and to describe patterns of hospice utilization.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries who died in 2018 and resided in an RC/AL community with ≥25 beds at least 1 day during the last month of life.

SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

23,285 decedents who spent time in 6274 RC/AL communities with 146 state license classifications.

METHODS

Descriptive statistics about hospice use; logistic regression models to test the association between regulations supportive of hospice care or registered nurse (RN) staffing requirements and the odds of hospice use in RC/AL in the last month of life.

RESULTS

More than half (56.4%) of the study cohort received hospice care in RC/AL at some point during the last 30 days of life, including 5.7% who received more intensive continuous home care (CHC). A larger proportion of decedents who resided in RC/ALs with supportive hospice policies received hospice (57.3% vs 52.6%), with this difference driven by more CHC hospice programs. This association remained significant after controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities, time spent in RC/AL, and Hospital Referral Region fixed effects. Decedents in RC/ALs with explicit RN staffing requirements had significantly less CHC use (2.0% vs 6.8%).

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

A large proportion of RC/AL decedents received hospice care in RC/AL regardless of differing regulations. Those in licensed settings with explicitly supportive hospice regulations were significantly more likely to receive hospice care in RC/AL during the last month of life, especially CHC level of hospice care. Regulatory change in states that do not yet explicitly allow hospice care in RC/AL may potentially increase hospice utilization in this setting, although the implications for quality of care remain unclear.

Health Effects of Power Loss After Hurricane Irma on Nursing Home Residents in Florida

Previous research establishes that hurricanes adversely affect nursing home (NH) resident health but specific causal pathways are still unclear. We combined power outage data with Medicare claims to determine the effects of power loss from Hurricane Irma(2017) among NH residents in Florida. Out of 580 facilities, 289 reported power loss. These facilities had higher star ratings; higher beds counts, and were preferentially in the Southeast region of Florida compared to facilities without outages. There were 27,767 residents living in a NH without power. They were comparable in characteristics to residents that did not lose power (N=26,383). We ran adjusted generalized linear models with robust standard errors, clustering for NH. We found power loss was associated with a trend towards increased odds of mortality within 7-days (OR:1.12, 95% CI:0.96, 1.30) and 30-days (OR:1.10, 95% CI:1.00, 1.21) post-storm, but not with hospitalization. Future research should investigate the time-specific effects of power outages.

Excess Mortality Attributable to COVID-19 Among Assisted Living Residents

This study examines the excess mortality attributable to COVID-19 among a national cohort of assisted living (AL) residents. To do this, we compare the weekly rate of all-cause mortality during 1/1/20-8/11/20 with the same weeks in 2019 and calculated adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). All-cause mortality rates, nationally, were 14% higher in 2020 compared with 2019 (mean, 2.309 vs. 2.020, respectively, per 1000 residents per week; adjusted IRR, 1.169; 95% CI 1.165-1.173). Among the 10 states with the highest community spread, the excess mortality attributable to COVID-19 was 24% higher, with 2.388 deaths per 1000 residents per week in 2020 during January-August vs 1.928 in 2019 (adjusted IRR, 1.241; 95% CI 1.233-1.250). These results suggest that AL residents suffered excess mortality due to COVID-19.

Resources and Relationships in Disasters: Differences Among Small and Large Assisted Living Communities

Disaster preparedness among assisted living communities (ALCs) has not been widely researched, despite the growth of ALCs and evidence of disability in this population. An additional issue of concern is the way in which ALCs vary, including variation by size. The purpose of this paper was to explore the experiences of ALCs in Florida that experienced Hurricane Irma in 2017 and how experiences varied by ALC size. Qualitative interviews and focus groups were conducted with representatives of small ALCs (<25 beds; n=32) and large ALCs (25+; n=38). Transcripts were analyzed using Atlas.ti version 8, and research team members collaborated to reach consensus on codes and further analyze differences based on ALC size. Results suggest there are differences among ALCs in their disaster preparedness and response, and these differences are related to size (e.g., access to resources, organizational characteristics). Implications for ALC resident wellbeing and future disaster planning will be discussed.

Place of Death Among Assisted Living Residents as a Factor of Hospice Regulations

Our objective was to examine the likelihood of dying in RC/AL among a national cohort of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries who died in 2018 (N=31,414) as a factor regulations allowing hospice care. We estimated multivariable logistic regression models to examine the association between RC/AL as place of death and supportive hospice regulations, controlling for demographic characteristics, dual Medicare/Medicaid eligibility, years in AL, and hospital referral region (HRR) to control for hospice practice patterns. A majority of beneficiaries in our cohort died in RC/AL; more than half while receiving hospice services. In unadjusted models, the odds of remaining in RC/AL communities until death were significantly higher in the presence of regulations supportive of hospice care. This relationship was no longer significant once adjusting for covariates and an HRR fixed effect, suggesting important variation in end-of-life experiences for AL residents not explained by hospice regulations.

The Difference LTC Corporate Ownership Makes in Collaborations With Emergency Operation Centers During Disasters

Collaboration between nursing homes (NHs) and assisted living communities (ALCs) with state and local entities (e.g., emergency operation centers (EOCs)) is critical during a disaster. The corporate structure of NHs and ALCs can make a difference in their ability to collaborate with these entities during a disaster. This mixed-method study examines differences in satisfaction with collaboration with state and local entities during Hurricane Irma in Florida in 2017 between corporate-owned NHs (N=24), larger (25+ beds) ALCs (N=38) and smaller ALCs (N=30). We also explore collaboration in Florida NHs (N=35) and ALCs (N=123) specific to COVID19. Scaled 1-5 survey data results indicate that small ALCs are the least satisfied (M=2.90) with EOC collaboration, compared to NHs (M=3.04) and larger ALCs (M=3.33) during Irma. Smaller ALCs were more dissatisfied with COVID19 mandates compared to larger ALCs and NHs. Ways to improve collaboration during a disaster, especially for smaller ALCs, will be discussed.

Nurse Staffing in Nursing Homes During Hurricane Irma

Little is known about the effect of hurricanes on nurse staffing in nursing homes. Hurricane Irma made landfall on September 10th, 2017 in Florida. This study examined daily nurse staffing levels from September 3rd-24th, 2017 in 653 nursing homes; 81 facilities evacuated and 572 facilities sheltered-in-place. Data from Payroll-Based Journaling (PBJ), Certification and Survey Provider Enhanced Reports (CASPER), and Florida’s health providers’ emergency reporting system were used. Among all facilities, we found significant increases in staffing for licensed practical nurses (p=.02) and certified nursing assistants (p<.001), but not for registered nurses (p=.10) before Hurricane Irma made landfall. In comparison to facilities that sheltered-in-place, evacuating facilities increased staffing levels of all nurse types (all p<.001). From one week before landfall to two weeks after landfall, an additional estimated $2.41 million was spent on nurse staffing. Policymakers attempting to reduce the burden of natural disasters on nursing homes should reimburse staffing-related expenses.

Excess Mortality Attributed to Hurricane Irma Among Assisted Living Residents With Chronic Conditions in Florida

Little is known about the impact of hurricanes on residents in assisted living communities (ALs), especially among individuals with chronic conditions that increase their risk of death after storms. We examined how the association between exposure to Hurricane Irma in 2017 and mortality differed by select chronic conditions. With Medicare data, we identified cohorts of AL residents in 2015 (n= 30,712) and 2017 (n= 29,842 ) and compared their rates of 30-day and 90-day and mortality. We adjusted rates for demographic characteristics and other comorbidities. AL residents with diabetes were at highest risk of death after the storm; between 2015 and 2017 they experienced a 50% increase in their 30-day mortality rates (0.6% in 2015, 0.9% in 2017) and a 43% increase in their 90-day mortality rates (2.1% in 2015, 3.0% in 2017). Policy makers should consider strategies to ensure that diabetic residents maintain continuity of medical care during disasters.

The Role of Hospice in Florida Nursing Homes Post-Hurricane Irma

There is little known about the effect of hospice post-disaster. This study utilized exposure to Hurricane Irma (2017) to evaluate the differential mortality effect of the disaster on Florida NH residents (N=45,882) compared to a control group of residents in the same NHs in 2015 (N=47,690) by hospice status. We also examine the difference in hospice utilization rates post-storm for short- and long-stay (LS) residents. There was an increase in mortality for those in the cohort not on hospice within 90 days in 2017 compared to 2015 (OR= 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.11). For the rate of hospice enrollment post-storm among residents previously not on hospice, there was an increase among LS residents within 30 days (OR =1.15, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.23) and 90 days (OR= 1.12, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.20). It is important to further examine the increase in the rate of hospice enrollment in LS NH residents post-storm.

Disaster Vulnerability in Long-Term Care: The Importance of Social and Organizational Connections

The risks to older adults in nursing homes (NHs) and assisted living communities (ALCs) exposed to disasters are evident in prior research. However, little research has been conducted to understand the factors related to facilities’ vulnerability. This research examined NH and ALC experiences during Hurricane Irma in 2017. Qualitative interviews were conducted with representatives of facilities (N=100), transcripts were analyzed using Atlas.ti version 8. Team members met to reach consensus on codes and major themes and subthemes, which they analyzed using a conceptual model designed to identify factors related to the disaster vulnerability in long-term care (LTC). We found physical factors (e.g. location, physical characteristics) are important, but physical strength is not enough. Multiple social/organizational factors are critical. Results indicate managing a major disaster and protecting LTC residents involve social and organizational connections across a range of groups from staff and family members to emergency mangers and neighborhood associations.

Experiences of Assisted Living Communities Affected by Hurricane Irma: Leadership, Lessons Learned

Little is known about the effects of disasters on assisted living community (ALC) residents. This is a concern given the growth of the AL industry and the increasing numbers of AL residents with functional limitations and chronic health conditions. This research examined the experiences of AL administrative staff to better understand the impact of Hurricane Irma. Qualitative interviews were conducted with representatives of ALCs across Florida (N=70), and transcripts were analyzed using Atlas.ti version 8. Research team members met regularly to reach consensus on codes, identifying five major themes across the interviews, 1) planning and preparation, 2) leadership, including plan execution and managing the unexpected, 3) effects/consequences of the storm, including effect on residents and staff, 4) lessons learned, and 5) electrical power. Results provide a broad view of ALC preparedness, how it varies across different types of ALCs and implications for resident wellbeing and future emergency planning.

Challenges of Caring for an Acute Population in a Disaster

The U.S. Gulf Coast hurricanes of 2004-08 led to research and policy reports highlighting the need for more emergency preparation among nursing homes (NH). In 2016, the federal government issued final rules requiring Medicaid and Medicare providers to develop comprehensive preparedness plans. The state of Florida previously imposed its own long-term care (LTC) preparedness requirements. Hurricane Irma tested the readiness of LTC facilities that care for disabled and vulnerable residents. This research examined the experiences of NHs (N=30) affected by the hurricane through qualitative interviews with administrative staff. Research team members analyzed the transcripts, identified codes, and met to reach consensus on themes. Three major themes emerged, 1) managing the unexpected, including last-minute evacuation orders, 2) caring for vulnerable residents amid the crisis, and 3) the struggle of maintaining staff. Results suggest LTC preparation has increased but long-standing problems continue, including conflicts with emergency management priorities.

Hurricane Irma’s Impact on Assisted Living Residents’ Rates of Hospitalization, Nursing Home Placement, and Mortality

Little is known about the impact of hurricanes on the large and increasingly vulnerable population residing in assisted living communities (ALs). The objective of this paper was to leverage a novel methodology to identify Medicare beneficiaries residing in Florida ALs and determine their outcomes associated with Hurricane Irma in 2017. With Medicare enrollment records, claims, and the nursing home Minimum Data Set, we identified a cohort of AL residents in 2015 (n=45,505) and 2017 (n=42,306) and compared their rates of 30-day hospitalization, nursing home placement, and mortality in the two years. AL residents in 2017 had a 10% increase in their 30-day hospitalization rates (3.96 in 2015, 4.34 in 2017), 16% increase in their 30-day nursing home placement rates (1.61 in 2015, 1.87 in 2017), and 22% increase in their 30-day mortality (0.54 in 2015, 0.66 in 2017). Findings suggest Florida AL residents experienced adverse outcomes following Hurricane Irma.

Mortality and Morbidity Among Nursing Home Residents Exposed to Hurricane Irma

We combined Medicare claims and nursing home (NH) administrative data to determine the mortality and morbidity effect of Hurricane Irma on nursing home residents. We utilized the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) Standard Analytical Files (SAFs) combined with the Minimum Data Set (MDS) to create an exposure cohort of NH residents residing in Florida facilities immediately prior to Hurricane Irma’s landfall on September 10, 2017. We created a control group of residents who resided in the same NHs over the same dates in 2015, a year when there were no hurricanes. Outcome variables included 30/90-day mortality and first hospitalizations post storm. Compared to the control, an additional 260 more NH deaths were identified at 30 days and 429 more deaths at 90 days. Long stay residents (≥100 days) were at particular risk for mortality compared to short stay residents (<100 days). Hospitalization was also markedly increased.

THE ROLE OF COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT IN HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS AS PERCEIVED BY ASSISTED LIVING ADMINISTRATORS

The importance of communities in disasters has been well established since Hurricane Katrina. Smit and Wandel’s bottom-up approach to assess risks during a disaster involves community stakeholders. Administrators of assisted living (AL) environments increasingly have to assess the risks of hurricane evacuation for vulnerable older adults. The current study examines intersections between social networks, communication and preparedness during a hurricane for AL administrators. We conducted focus groups and interviews with AL administrators (N=60) in Florida about communication patterns with community associations, emergency management officials, AL staff, residents and their families during Hurricane Irma (2017) and about their perceptions of preparedness. A content analysis approach was used. Atlas.ti v7 was used for initial and axial coding. Co-occurrences were found among communication and preparedness themes. Some prevalent themes included “social capital”, “high versus low tech strategies” and “leadership effectiveness”. Themes intersected with individual administrator and AL organizational characteristics.

EVACUATING OR SHELTERING IN PLACE DURING A DISASTER: HOW ASSISTED LIVING ADMINISTRATORS MAKE THE DECISION

The decision to evacuate or shelter in place during a natural disaster such as a hurricane is complicated and poses risks to long-term care residents. While research has documented the difficulty of the evacuation decision for nursing home administrators, little is known about how assisted living residence (ALR) administrators make this decision. This is a concern given the physical and cognitive impairment level of many ALR residents, the increasing number of ALRs in the U.S., and the frequency of natural disasters. The purpose of this paper was to explore the factors that influenced whether assisted living administrators evacuated their ALRs for Hurricane Irma, a large hurricane that made landfall on Florida’s Southwest coast in September, 2017. This qualitative study used semi-structured interviews and focus groups with ALR owners or administrative staff (N=60) with questions including how they prepared for Hurricane Irma, their experiences during the hurricane, including whether they evacuated or sheltered in place, and lessons learned. The sample includes small (&lt; 25 beds) and large ALRs in the multiple Florida counties affected by the hurricane. A content analysis approach was used. Atlas.ti version 7 was used for initial and axial coding. Prevalent themes included “emergency management planning”, “logistics”, “pressure”, “storm characteristics,” and “staffing”. The results of this study have implications for long-term care policy and training, potentially leading to changes in how ALR leaders prepare for and respond to disasters to improve the safety of residents.

KEEPING COOL IN FLORIDA ASSISTED LIVING COMMUNITIES: BARRIERS TO POWER RULE IMPLEMENTATION

In 2018, in response to deaths of nursing home residents after Hurricane Irma, Governor Scott and the Florida legislature enacted an emergency power rule for nursing homes and assisted living communities (ALCs). It mandates these settings to have a generator to regulate ambient air temperatures during loss of primary power by Jan. 1, 2019. However, due to cost and supply challenges the implementation of these plans has been difficult, particularly for small and independently owned ALCs. The purpose of this mixed methods study is to determine the characteristics of ALCs that were able to comply with the rule and concerns raised by ALC administrators. Using data from state regulatory agencies on all Florida ALCs (N=3082), we determine associations between ALC characteristics (size, specialty license, low-income residents) and non-compliance to the rule, using chi-square and t-tests. Additionally, we conducted interviews and focus groups with ALC administrators (N=60) about issues of implementing their emergency power plan. A content analysis approach was used and Atlas.ti v7 was used for initial and axial coding. Some prevalent themes were issues with time frames, coordination between local and state regulations, and financial burden. Themes varied by size and organizational structure of ALCs. Results will inform policy-makers on the barriers faced by ALCs to implement a new regulation that may cause financial difficulties and compromise quality care. This study has implications related to disaster preparedness regulations and their effects on independent ALCs with fewer financial resources.

2012. Trends in Microbiological Culture Collection Across Veterans Affairs Medical Centers and Community Living Centers, 2010 to 2017

Background

Microbiological cultures are critical in the diagnosis of infection, identification of pathogenic organisms, and tailoring antibiotic use. However, unnecessary collection of cultures, particularly from the urine, may lead to overuse of antibiotics. There have been no national studies to evaluate trends in the collection of cultures in acute and long-term care settings. Here we describe changes in the collection of cultures nationally across Veterans Affairs medical centers (VAMCs) and Community Living Centers (CLCs).

Methods

All positive and negative cultures collected from 2010 to 2017 among Veterans admitted to VAMCs or CLCs were included. Cultures were categorized by specimen source (urine, blood, skin and soft tissue, or lung). Joinpoint software was used for regression analyses of trends over time and to estimate annual average percent changes with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

A total of 5,089,640 cultures from 158 VAMCS and 342,850 cultures from 146 CLCs were identified. The number of cultures collected for all culture types in VAMCs and CLCs decreased significantly. The number of cultures collected per admission decreased significantly by 5.5% annually among VAMCs (95% CI −7.0 to −4.0%) and by 8.4% annually among CLCs (95% CI −10.1 to −6.6%). The proportion of positive cultures decreased 1.6% annually among VAMCs (95% CI −2.3 to −0.9%) and remained stable among CLCs (-0.4% annually, 95% CI, −1.1 to 0.4%). The most common culture source among VAMCs was blood (36.2%), followed by urine (31.8%), and among CLCs was urine (56.9%), followed by blood (16.0%). Urine cultures decreased by 4.5% annually among VAMCs (95% CI −5.4 to −3.6%) and 7.0% annually among CLCs (95% CI −7.6 to −6.4%).

Conclusion

Our study demonstrates a significant reduction in the number of cultures collected over time. Positive cultures decreased significantly in VAMCs, possibly indicating fewer culture-positive infections.In both VAMCs and CLCs, decreases in cultures taken may represent an important reduction in the collection of unnecessary cultures nationally driven by increased awareness about over-testing and over-treatment of presumed infection, particularly urinary tract infections.

Disclosures

All authors: No reported disclosures.

2049. Trends in Antibiotic Use and Antibiotic Resistance among Veterans Affairs Community Living Centers from 2011 to 2017

Background

Antibiotic resistance is a global public health crisis, with antibiotic overuse contributing to selection pressure, and thus driving antibiotic resistance. Strategies to reduce antibiotic overuse may slow the development of resistance, but large-scale studies assessing trends in antibiotic use and resistance among nursing homes at the national level are limited. We describe trends in antibiotic use and resistance nationally among Veterans Affairs (VA) Community Living Centers (CLCs).

Methods

We assessed antibiotic use and microbiological cultures among VA CLC residents from 2011 to 2017. Antibiotics were grouped into eight drug classes and annual days of antibiotic therapy per 1,000 bed-days were calculated. Facility-weighted annual antibiotic resistance rates were calculated. Joinpoint Software was used for regression analyses of trends over time and to estimate annual average percent changes (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

Over 7 years and among 146 CLCs, several significant trends in decreasing antibiotic use and corresponding reductions in resistance were identified. Fluoroquinolone use decreased by 9.9% annually (95% CI −11.6 to −8.2%) and fluoroquinolone resistance decreased by 2.3% per year for Escherichia coli, 5.1% for Klebsiella spp., 1.8% for Proteus mirabilis, 4.9% for Pseudomonas aeruginosa, 12.6% for Enterobacter spp., and 3.2% for Enterococcus spp. Anti-pseudomonal penicillin use decreased by 6.6% annually (95% CI −10.6 to −2.4%) and anti-pseudomonal penicillin resistance rates decreased each year by 7.9% for Escherichia coli, 8.9% for Klebsiella spp., 15.2% for Proteus mirabilis and 4.2% for Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Anti-staphylococcal penicillin use decreased by 5.4% annually (95% CI −10.0 to −0.5%) and resistance in Staphylococcus aureus decreased 1.7% per year.

Conclusion

Nationally among VA CLCs, we observed significant reductions in the use of several classes of antibiotics with corresponding reductions in antibiotic resistance, including an impressive decline in fluoroquinolone use and corresponding decreases in fluoroquinolone resistance among six organisms. Future research should assess whether reductions in antibiotic use predict later reductions in antibiotic resistance and improvements in resident outcomes.

Disclosures

All authors: No reported disclosures.

Influenza Illness and Hip Fracture Hospitalizations in Nursing Home Residents: Are They Related?

Background

Influenza illness may impact the risk of falls and fractures during acute illness due to unsteady gait or dizziness. We evaluated the association between influenza and hip fracture hospitalizations in long-stay (LS) nursing home (NH) residents.

Methods

We analyzed weekly rates of hospitalization in a retrospective cohort of LS NH residents between January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2009. Hip fracture and influenza like illness (ILI) hospitalizations were identified with Medicare fee-for-service part A claims. We evaluated unadjusted and adjusted models with the primary exposures, weekly rate of influenza-like illness hospitalizations, city-wide mortality, and NH influenza vaccination rate and primary outcome of weekly rate of hip fracture hospitalizations.

Results

There were 9,237 incident hip fractures in the cohort. Facility wide ILI hospitalization rate was associated with the hip fracture hospitalization rate in the unadjusted (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08, 1.17) and adjusted (IRR 1.13, 95% CI: 1.09, 1.18) analyses. City-wide influenza mortality was associated with hip fracture hospitalization rates for the unadjusted (IRR 1.03, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.04), and adjusted (IRR 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.03) analyses. NH influenza vaccination rates were not associated with changes in hip fracture hospitalization rates.

Conclusions

ILI hospitalizations are associated with a 13% average increase in hip fracture hospitalization risk. In a given NH week, an increase in the number ILI hospitalizations from none to two was associated with an approximate one percentage point increase in hip fracture hospitalization risk. Strategies to reduce influenza risk should be investigated to reduce hip fracture risk.

Leveraging Home-Delivered Meal Programs to Address Unmet Needs for At-Risk Older Adults: Preliminary Data

BACKGROUND

Home-delivered meal programs serve a predominantly homebound older adult population, characterized by multiple chronic conditions, functional limitations, and a variety of complex care needs, both medical and social.

DESIGN

A pilot study was designed to test the feasibility of leveraging routine meal-delivery service in two home-delivered meal programs to proactively identify changes in older adult meal recipients' (clients') health, safety, and well-being and address unmet needs.

INTERVENTION

Meal delivery personnel (drivers) were trained to use a mobile application to submit electronic alerts when they had a concern or observed a change in a client's condition. Alerts were received by care coordinators, who followed up with clients to offer support and help connect them to health and community services.

RESULTS

Over a 12-month period, drivers submitted a total of 429 alerts for 189 clients across two pilot sites. The most frequent alerts were submitted for changes in health (56%), followed by self-care or personal safety (12%) and mobility (11%). On follow-up, a total of 132 referrals were issued, with most referrals for self-care (33%), health (17%), and care management services (17%). Focus groups conducted with drivers indicated that most found the mobile application easy to use and valued change of condition monitoring as an important contribution.

CONCLUSION

Findings suggest that this is a feasible approach to address unmet needs for vulnerable older adults and may serve as an early-warning system to prevent further decline and improve quality of life. Efforts are underway to test the protocol across additional home-delivered meal programs. J Am Geriatr Soc 67:1946-1952, 2019.

Improving Advanced Care Planning through Physician Orders for Life-Sustaining Treatment (POLST) Expansion across the United States: Lessons Learned from State-Based Developments

Background:

The Physician Orders for Life-Sustaining Treatment (POLST) Paradigm is an effective advance care planning tool. However, barriers to implementation persist. In the United States, POLST program development occurs at the state-level. Substantial differences between states has left POLST implementation largely unstandardized. No peer-reviewed studies to date have evaluated state-based POLST program development over time.

Objective:

To assess and learn from the successes and barriers in state-based POLST program development over time to improve the reach of POLST or similar programs across the United States.

Design:

An exploratory, prospective cohort study that utilized semistructured telephone interviews was conducted over a 3-year period (2012-2015). Stakeholder representatives from state POLST coalitions (n = 14) were repeatedly queried on time-relevant successes, barriers, and innovations during POLST program development with levels of legislative and medical barriers rated 1 to 10. Interviews were transcribed and analyzed using techniques grounded in qualitative theory.

Results:

All coalition representatives reported continuous POLST expansion with improved outreach and community partnerships. Significant barriers to expansion included difficulty in securing funding for training and infrastructure, lack of statewide metric systems to adequately assess expansion, lack of provider support, and legislative concerns. Medical barriers (mean [standard deviation]: 5.0 [0.2]) were rated higher than legislative (3.0 [0.6]; P < .001).

Conclusion:

POLST programs continue to grow, but not without barriers. Based on the experiences of developing coalitions, we were able to identify strategies to expand POLST programs and overcome barriers. Ultimately the “lessons learned” in this study can serve as a guide to improve the reach of POLST or similar programs.

Fracture Risk Assessment in Long-term Care (FRAiL): Development and Validation of a Prediction Model

Background

Strategies used to predict fracture in community-dwellers may not be useful in the nursing home (NH). Our objective was to develop and validate a model (Fracture Risk Assessment in Long-term Care [FRAiL]) to predict the 2-year risk of hip fracture in NH residents using readily available clinical characteristics.

Methods

The derivation cohort consisted of 419,668 residents between May 1, 2007 and April 30, 2008 in fee-for service Medicare. Hip fractures were identified using Part A diagnostic codes. Resident characteristics were obtained using the Minimum Data Set and Part D claims. Multivariable competing risk regression was used to model 2-year risk of hip fracture. We validated the model in a remaining 1/3 sample (n = 209,834) and in a separate cohort in 2011 (n = 858,636).

Results

Mean age was 84 years (range 65-113 years) and 74.5% were female. During 1.8 years mean follow-up, 14,553 residents (3.5%) experienced a hip fracture. Fifteen characteristics in the final model were associated with an increased risk of hip fracture including dementia severity, ability to transfer and walk independently, prior falls, wandering, and diabetes. In the derivation sample, the concordance index was 0.69 in men and 0.71 in women. Calibration was excellent. Results were similar in the internal and external validation samples.

Conclusions

The FRAiL model was developed specifically to identify NH residents at greatest risk for hip fracture, and it identifies a different pattern of risk factors compared with community models. This practical model could be used to screen NH residents for fracture risk and to target intervention strategies.

Home Health Utilization in Assisted Living Settings

Home health agencies (HHAs) are one of the most commonly used third-party providers in the assisted living (AL) setting. One way ALs may be potentially able to meet the needs of their residents despite increased impairment is through supplementing the services offered with those delivered by HHAs. We explore the growth in the delivery of HHA services to Medicare beneficiaries in AL compared with other home settings between 2012 and 2014. We also examine demographic, cognitive, and functional characteristics of beneficiaries; HHA provider characteristics; and the variation in the percentage of home health use in ALs across the country. Our findings suggest that there was a slight growth in the share of HHA services being delivered in AL. HHA recipients in AL were more likely to have cognitive and activities of daily living impairments than those receiving HHA services in other settings. This is among the first studies to examine HHA utilization in AL.

1238. A National Comparison of Antibiograms Between Veterans Affairs Long-Term Care Facilities and Affiliated Hospitals

Background

Long-term care facilities (LTCFs) face several barriers to creating antibiograms. Here, we evaluate if LTCFs can use antibiograms from affiliated hospitals as their own antibiogram.

Methods

Facility-specific antibiograms were created for all Veterans Affairs (VA) LTCFs and VA Medical Centers (VAMCs) for 2017. LTCFs and affiliated VAMCs were paired and classified as being on the same campus or geographically distinct campuses based on self-report. For each pair, Escherichia coli susceptibility rates (%S) to cefazolin, ceftriaxone, cefepime, ciprofloxacin, nitrofurantoin, sulfamethoxazole/trimethoprim, ampicillin/sulbactam, piperacillin/tazobactam, and imipenem were compared. As guidelines discourage empiric use of antibiotics if susceptibility rates are <80%, we assessed clinical discordance between each LTCF and affiliated VAMC antibiogram at a threshold of 80% susceptible. The proportions of concordant susceptibilities between LTCFs and VAMCs on the same campus vs. geographically distinct campuses were compared using Chi-square tests.

Results

A total of 119 LTCFs and their affiliated VAMCs were included in this analysis, with 70.6% (n = 84) of facilities located on the same campus and 29.4% (n = 35) on geographically distinct campuses. The table below shows the overall clinical concordance (agreement) of LTCFs with their affiliated VAMC in regards to E. coli %S to the compared antibiotics. No significant differences were found when comparing LTCFs on the same campus vs. geographically distinct campuses.

Conclusion

Antibiograms between LTCFs and affiliated VAMCs had a high concordance, except for sulfamethoxazole/trimethoprim, cefazolin and ceftriaxone in regards to susceptibility rates of E. coli. Facilities on the same campus were found to have similar concordance rates to geographically distinct facilities. Future studies are needed to investigate how the various approaches to creating LTCF-specific antibiograms are associated with clinical outcomes.

Disclosures

M. S. Tolg, Veterans Affairs: Investigator, Research grant. A. Caffrey, Veterans Affairs: Investigator, Research grant. H. Appaneal, Veterans Affairs: Grant Investigator, Research grant. R. Jump, Veterans Affairs: Investigator, Research grant. V. Lopes, Veterans Affairs: Investigator, Research grant. D. Dosa, Veterans Affairs: Grant Investigator, Research grant. K. LaPlante, Veterans Affairs: Investigator, Research grant.

Increasing Prevalence of Assisted Living as a Substitute for Private-Pay Long-Term Nursing Care

OBJECTIVE

Given the tremendous growth in assisted living (AL) over the past 20 years, it is important to understand how expansion has affected the demand for long-term care (LTC) provided in nursing homes (NHs). We estimated the effect of a change in county-level AL beds on the prevalence of private-pay residents and private-pay resident days at the NH-level.

DATA SOURCES

National census of large AL providers (25+ beds), and Minimum Data Set combined with Medicare enrollment records and claims from 2007 and 2014.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective longitudinal analysis of LTC markets.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Mean AL beds per county increased from 285 to 324, while NHs exhibited a decrease in private-pay residents (20.1 to 17.7 percent) and resident days (21.3 to 17.5 percent). An increase of 1,000 AL beds at the county level is associated with a reduction of 0.44 percentage points in private-pay resident days but is not significantly associated with percent of private-pay residents.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that increases in AL capacity have potentially allowed NH residents to delay or decrease their privately financed lengths of stay. As demand for AL continues to grow, it will be important to assess the effects on other LTC sectors.

Increasing Prevalence of Assisted Living as a Substitute for Private-Pay Long-Term Nursing Care

OBJECTIVE

Given the tremendous growth in assisted living (AL) over the past 20 years, it is important to understand how expansion has affected the demand for long-term care (LTC) provided in nursing homes (NHs). We estimated the effect of a change in county-level AL beds on the prevalence of private-pay residents and private-pay resident days at the NH-level.

DATA SOURCES

National census of large AL providers (25+ beds), and Minimum Data Set combined with Medicare enrollment records and claims from 2007 and 2014.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective longitudinal analysis of LTC markets.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Mean AL beds per county increased from 285 to 324, while NHs exhibited a decrease in private-pay residents (20.1 to 17.7 percent) and resident days (21.3 to 17.5 percent). An increase of 1,000 AL beds at the county level is associated with a reduction of 0.44 percentage points in private-pay resident days but is not significantly associated with percent of private-pay residents.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that increases in AL capacity have potentially allowed NH residents to delay or decrease their privately financed lengths of stay. As demand for AL continues to grow, it will be important to assess the effects on other LTC sectors.