Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries.

METHODS

GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990-2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0-9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10-24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10-24 years were also in the top ten in the 25-49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50-74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI.

INTERPRETATION

As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Prevalence, years lived with disability, and trends in anaemia burden by severity and cause, 1990-2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Anaemia is a major health problem worldwide. Global estimates of anaemia burden are crucial for developing appropriate interventions to meet current international targets for disease mitigation. We describe the prevalence, years lived with disability, and trends of anaemia and its underlying causes in 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We estimated population-level distributions of haemoglobin concentration by age and sex for each location from 1990 to 2021. We then calculated anaemia burden by severity and associated years lived with disability (YLDs). With data on prevalence of the causes of anaemia and associated cause-specific shifts in haemoglobin concentrations, we modelled the proportion of anaemia attributed to 37 underlying causes for all locations, years, and demographics in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

FINDINGS

In 2021, the global prevalence of anaemia across all ages was 24·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 23·9-24·7), corresponding to 1·92 billion (1·89-1·95) prevalent cases, compared with a prevalence of 28·2% (27·8-28·5) and 1·50 billion (1·48-1·52) prevalent cases in 1990. Large variations were observed in anaemia burden by age, sex, and geography, with children younger than 5 years, women, and countries in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia being particularly affected. Anaemia caused 52·0 million (35·1-75·1) YLDs in 2021, and the YLD rate due to anaemia declined with increasing Socio-demographic Index. The most common causes of anaemia YLDs in 2021 were dietary iron deficiency (cause-specific anaemia YLD rate per 100 000 population: 422·4 [95% UI 286·1-612·9]), haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias (89·0 [58·2-123·7]), and other neglected tropical diseases (36·3 [24·4-52·8]), collectively accounting for 84·7% (84·1-85·2) of anaemia YLDs.

INTERPRETATION

Anaemia remains a substantial global health challenge, with persistent disparities according to age, sex, and geography. Estimates of cause-specific anaemia burden can be used to design locally relevant health interventions aimed at improving anaemia management and prevention.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries.

METHODS

We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

FINDINGS

In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505).

INTERPRETATION

Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

The burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance in the WHO African region in 2019: a cross-country systematic analysis

BACKGROUND

A critical and persistent challenge to global health and modern health care is the threat of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Previous studies have reported a disproportionate burden of AMR in low-income and middle-income countries, but there remains an urgent need for more in-depth analyses across Africa. This study presents one of the most comprehensive sets of regional and country-level estimates of bacterial AMR burden in the WHO African region to date.

METHODS

We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with AMR for 23 bacterial pathogens and 88 pathogen-drug combinations for countries in the WHO African region in 2019. Our methodological approach consisted of five broad components: the number of deaths in which infection had a role, the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome, the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen, the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antimicrobial drug of interest, and the excess risk of mortality (or duration of an infection) associated with this resistance. These components were then used to estimate the disease burden by using two counterfactual scenarios: deaths attributable to AMR (considering an alternative scenario where infections with resistant pathogens are replaced with susceptible ones) and deaths associated with AMR (considering an alternative scenario where drug-resistant infections would not occur at all). We obtained data from research hospitals, surveillance networks, and infection databases maintained by private laboratories and medical technology companies. We generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates as the 25th and 975th ordered values across 1000 posterior draws, and models were cross-validated for out-of-sample predictive validity.

FINDINGS

In the WHO African region in 2019, there were an estimated 1·05 million deaths (95% UI 829 000-1 316 000) associated with bacterial AMR and 250 000 deaths (192 000-325 000) attributable to bacterial AMR. The largest fatal AMR burden was attributed to lower respiratory and thorax infections (119 000 deaths [92 000-151 000], or 48% of all estimated bacterial pathogen AMR deaths), bloodstream infections (56 000 deaths [37 000-82 000], or 22%), intra-abdominal infections (26 000 deaths [17 000-39 000], or 10%), and tuberculosis (18 000 deaths [3850-39 000], or 7%). Seven leading pathogens were collectively responsible for 821 000 deaths (636 000-1 051 000) associated with resistance in this region, with four pathogens exceeding 100 000 deaths each: Streptococcus pneumoniae, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Escherichia coli, and Staphylococcus aureus. Third-generation cephalosporin-resistant K pneumoniae and meticillin-resistant S aureus were shown to be the leading pathogen-drug combinations in 25 and 16 countries, respectively (53% and 34% of the whole region, comprising 47 countries) for deaths attributable to AMR.

INTERPRETATION

This study reveals a high level of AMR burden for several bacterial pathogens and pathogen-drug combinations in the WHO African region. The high mortality rates associated with these pathogens demonstrate an urgent need to address the burden of AMR in Africa. These estimates also show that quality and access to health care and safe water and sanitation are correlated with AMR mortality, with a higher fatal burden found in lower resource settings. Our cross-country analyses within this region can help local governments to leverage domestic and global funding to create stewardship policies that target the leading pathogen-drug combinations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund.

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

BACKGROUND

While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria.

METHODS

In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced.

RESULTS

GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Anti-nociceptive and anti-inflammatory activities of crude root extract and solvent fractions of Cucumis ficifolius in mice model

Background: Societies in developing countries use traditional medicine as alternatives for management of pain and inflammation. The plant Cucumis ficifolius has been used in Ethiopia to treat many ailments including inflammation and pain. The objective of this study was to evaluate the antinociceptive and anti-inflammatory activities of the crude root extract and solvent fractions of C. ficifolius.

Methods: The analgesic activity of crude extract and solvent fractions of C. ficifolius was evaluated with acetic acid-induced writhing, hot plate, and formalin-induced paw licking tests. The anti-inflammatory effect of crude methanolic root extract and solvent fractions of C. ficifolius was evaluated using carrageenan-induced paw edema. The crude extract was given at 200, 400 and 800 mg/kg. Butanol and aqueous fractions were given at 100 and 200 mg/kg doses. The negative control groups were treated with distilled water (10 mL/kg). Standard drugs used were acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) in acetic acid, formalin tests and carrageenan-induced paw edema and morphine (20 mg/kg) in hot plate test.

Results: The crude extract, at its maximum dose, produced comparable analgesic activity (72.5%) to ASA in acetic acid writhing test. In the hot plate test, both the crude extract and solvent fractions exhibited a significant prolongation of nociception reaction time. Formalin test result indicated a significant reduction of mean lick time with maximal protection of 64% (early phase) and 83% (late phase). Aqueous and butanol fractions showed good analgesic activity in the three models. Inflammation was decreased by 69% with butanol (200 mg/kg); 71% (800 mg/kg) of crude extract and by 41% and 56% with the use of aqueous fraction at 100 and 200 mg/kg, respectively (p<0.001).

Conclusion: The present study indicates that the crude methanolic root extract, as well as butanol and aqueous solvent fractions, showed anti-nociceptive and anti-inflammatory activities.

Galanin Receptors as Drug Target for Novel Antidepressants: Review

Galanin (GAL) is a 29-amino-acid neuropeptide that serves multiple physiological functions throughout the central and peripheral nervous system. Its role involves in a range of physiological and pathological functions including control of food intake, neuro-protection, neuronal regeneration, energy expenditure, reproduction, water balance, mood, nociception and various neuroendocrine functions. The use of currently available antidepressant drugs raises concerns regarding efficacy and onset of action; therefore, the need for antidepressants with novel mechanisms is increasing. Presently, various studies revealed the link between GAL and depression. Attenuation of depressive symptoms is achieved through inhibition of GalR1 and GalR3 and activation of GalR2. However, lack of receptor selectivity of ligands has limited the complete elucidation of effects of different receptors in depression-like behavior. Studies have suggested that GAL enhances the action of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and promotes availability of transcription proteins. This review addresses the role of GAL, GAL receptors (GALRs) ligands including selective peptides, and the mechanism of ligand receptor interaction in attenuating depressive symptoms.

Glycopeptides as Potential Interventions for COVID-19

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), an infectious disease that primarily attacks the human pulmonary system, is caused by a viral strain called severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The outbreak emerged from Wuhan, China, and later spread throughout the world. Until the first week of May 2020, over 3.7 million cases had been reported worldwide and more than 258,000 had died due to the disease. So far, off label use of various drugs has been tried in many clinical settings, however, at present, there is no vaccine or antiviral treatment for human and animal coronaviruses. Therefore, repurposing of the available drugs may be promising to control emerging infections of SARS-COV2; however, new interventions are likely to require months to years to develop. Glycopeptides, which are active against gram-positive bacteria, have demonstrated significant activity against viral infections including SARS-COV and MERS-COV and have a high resemblance of sequence homology with SARS-COV2. Recent in vitro studies have also shown promising activities of aglycon derivative of glycopeptides and teicoplanin against SARS-COV2. Hydrophobic aglycon derivatives and teicoplanin, with minimal toxicity to human cell lines, inhibit entry and replication of SARS-COV2. These drugs block proteolysis of polyprotein a/b with replicase and transcription domains. Teicoplanin use was associated with complete viral clearance in a cohort of patients with severe COVID-19 symptoms. This review attempts to describe the activity, elucidate the possible mechanisms and potential clinical applications of existing glycopeptides against corona viruses, specifically SARS-COV2.

Magnitude and predictors of first-line antiretroviral therapy regimen change among HIV infected adults: A retrospective cross sectional study

Background

Regimen change remains a significant challenge towards the achievement of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment success. In developing countries where limited treatment options are available, strategies are required to ensure the sustainability and durability of the starting regimens. Nevertheless, information regarding the rate and predictors of regimen change is limited in these settings.

Objective

This study was undertaken to determine the prevalence and predictors of changes in ART regimens among patients initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) at XX.

Materials and methods

An institutional based retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted among adult naïve HIV patients who had initiated HAART at XX between 2010. Data were extracted by reviewing their medical charts using a pretested structured check-list. The Kaplan–Meier survival analyses were used to describe the probability of ARV regimen changes while Cox proportional hazard regression models were employed to identify the predictors of ARV regimen modifications. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 21 software, and statistical significant was deemed at p < 0.05.

Results

A total of 770 patients were enrolled in this study of these 165 (21.43%) had their ART regimen modified at least once. Drug toxicity was the main reason for regimen change followed by TB comorbidity, and treatment failure. Positive baseline TB symptoms (aHR = 1.63, p = 0.037), and Zidovudine based regimen (aHR = 1.76, p = 0.011) as compared to Stavudine based regimen were at higher risk of ART modification. Conversely, urban residence, baseline World Health organization (WHO) stage 2 as compared to WHO stage 1, baseline CD4 count ≥301 as compared to CD4 count ≤200 were at lower risk of ART modification.

Conclusion

The rate of initial HAART regimen change was found to be high. Thus, less toxic and better tolerated HIV treatment options should be available and used more frequently. Moreover, early detection and initiation of ART by the government is highly demanded to maximize the benefit and reduce risk of ART modifications.

•

The majorities (57.4%) of the patients were female and the mean age of the study participants was 32.9 ± 9.5

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A total of 165 (21.4%) participants experienced antiretroviral regimen changes within two years of follow-up period.

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The highest rate of treatment modification was found among patients receiving fixed-dose combination of AZT+3 TC + NVP 81 (49.0%).

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Drug toxicity was the main reason for ARV regimen change, which accounts for 74 (41.3%) of regimen change.

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Anemia was the main forms of toxicities which accounted for 45(36.3%).

Patterns and determinants of prescribed drug use among pregnant women in Adigrat general hospital, northern Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study

Background

A vigilant prescription of drugs during pregnancy can potentially safeguard the growing fetus from the deleterious effect of the drug while attempting to manage the mother’s health problems. There is a paucity of information about the drug utilization pattern in the area of investigation. Hence, this study was implemented to investigate the pattern of drug utilization and its associated factors among pregnant women in Adigrat general hospital, Northern Ethiopia.

Methods

An institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted among randomly selected 314 pregnant women who attended obstetrics-gynecology and antenatal care units of the hospital. Relevant data were retrieved from the pregnant women’s medical records and registration logbook. The drugs prescribed were categorized based on the United States Food and Drug Administration (US-FDA) fetal harm classification system. Data analysis was done using SPSS version 20 statistical software. Multivariate logistic regression was employed to analyze the association of the explanatory variables with the medication use, and p < 0.05 was declared statistically significant.

Results

The overall prescribed drug use in this study was found to be 87.7%. A considerable percentage of the study participants (41.4%) were prescribed with supplemental drugs (iron folate being the most prescribed drug) followed by antibiotics (23.4%) and analgesics (9.2%). According to the US-FDA drug’s risk classification, 42.5, 37, 13, and 7% of the drugs prescribed were from categories A, B, C, and D or X respectively. Prescribed drug use was more likely among pregnant women who completed primary [AOR = 5.34, 95% CI (1.53–18.6)] and secondary education [AOR = 4.1, 95% CI (1.16–14)], who had a history of chronic illness [AOR = 7.9, 95% CI (3.14–19.94)] and among multigravida women [AOR = 2.9, 95% CI (1.57 5.45)].

Conclusions

The finding of this study revealed that a substantial proportion of pregnant women received drugs with potential harm to the mother and fetus. Reasonably, notifying health practitioners to rely on up-to-date treatment guidelines strictly is highly demanded. Moreover, counseling and educating pregnant women on the safe and appropriate use of medications during pregnancy are crucial to mitigate the burden that the mother and the growing fetus could face.

Time in the therapeutic range, bleeding event, and their determinants in older patients with atrial fibrillation on warfarin in Ethiopia: multicenter cross-sectional study

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) poses significant thromboembolism and bleeding risks, especially in older adults. Warfarin continues to be a primary treatment option, and maintaining the Time in Therapeutic Range (TTR) is critical for ensuring its effectiveness. However, suboptimal TTR is associated with increased risks of stroke, bleeding, and mortality. Despite its importance, there is limited data on warfarin management in Ethiopian older adults with AF. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the TTR, bleeding events, and their determinants, in older patients with AF in Ethiopia receiving warfarin therapy.

Method

In this study, older patients with AF who were treated with warfarin and had follow-up visits between May 2021 and May 2024, and met the inclusion criteria, were included. Patients were categorized based on TTR into two groups: poor anticoagulation (TTR < 65%) and good anticoagulation quality (TTR ≥ 65%). Bivariate and Multivariate Logistic regression was performed to predict determinants of a TTR < 65% and bleeding events. Odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated, and statistical significance was set at P < 0.05.

Results

In this study, 384 patients with AF were included. Of this 53.4% were female. Of these 71% of patients had a TTR below 65%, 29% achieved ≥65%, with a median TTR of 45%. Bleeding events were reported by 13.5% of patients. Poor TTR was significantly associated with age (AOR = 1.199, 95% CI: 1.109-1.297), chronic kidney disease (AOR = 27.809, 95% CI: 7.57-101.76), and infrequent INR monitoring at 31-90-day intervals (AOR = 0.15, 95% CI: 0.004-0.051). Regarding determinants of bleeding events, Patients with diabetes mellitus had a 2.6-fold higher bleeding risk (AOR = 2.585, 95% CI: 1.069-6.250), and a CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥3 significantly increased bleeding risk compared to scores ≤2 (AOR = 7.562, 95% CI: 2.770-20.640).

Conclusion

This study highlights suboptimal warfarin therapy among older Ethiopian patients with AF. Poor anticoagulation was associated with advanced age, chronic kidney disease, and infrequent INR monitoring, while diabetes mellitus and high CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores increased bleeding risks. Close monitoring and frequent INR checks are essential to improving outcomes.

Anticoagulation quality through time in therapeutic range in Sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

The quality of anticoagulation with warfarin is often assessed through the time in therapeutic range (TTR). However, achieving optimal TTR and maintaining therapeutic INR levels presents significant challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa. This review aims to summarize the existing evidence on the quality of warfarin anticoagulation among patients in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Method

We searched MEDLINE via Ovid, PubMed, Embase via Ovid, and Scopus, and citation analysis from Google Scholar. The review's primary focus was therapeutic INR and TTR ≥ 65. Meta-analysis was conducted using R version 4.3.3. A mixed-effects meta-regression model was used to examine the influence of moderators, with heterogeneity estimated using I 2 and prediction intervals (PI), and publication bias assessed through funnel plots and Egger's test, with p < 0.05 indicating potential bias. The robustness of pooled proportions was tested using a leave-one-out sensitivity analysis. The preparation of this review adhered to the guidelines outlined in the PRISMA.

Results

We identified 15 observational studies for inclusion in this systematic review and meta-analysis. Egger's test confirmed an absence of publication bias across these studies. Sensitivity analyses showed consistency in individual therapeutic INR (pooled estimate: 0.37; range: 0.37-0.40) and TTR (pooled estimate: 0.16; range: 0.15-0.17), closely aligning with pooled proportions. Meta-analysis of high-quality TTR measurements yielded a pooled prevalence of 17% (I 2 = 89%), with study-specific values ranging from 10 to 29% and predicted effect sizes between 0.05 and 0.34. The therapeutic INR was observed at a pooled prevalence of 40% (I 2 = 86%; prediction interval: 0.16, 0.67).

Conclusion

Warfarin therapy is associated with very low percentage of TTR suggests poor quality of anticoagulation management. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of these findings.

Effectiveness of Propofol versus Dexamethasone for Prevention of Postoperative Nausea and Vomiting in Ear, Nose, and Throat Surgery in Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital and Yekatit 12th Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV) remain as common and unpleasant and highly distressful experience following ear, nose, and throat surgery. During ENT surgery, the incidence of PONV could be significantly reduced in patients who receive dexamethasone and propofol as prophylaxis. However, the comparative effectiveness of the two drugs has not been assessed. The aim of this study was to compare the effectiveness of propofol and dexamethasone for prevention of PONV in ear, nose, and throat surgery.

METHODS

This study was conducted in 80 patients, with ASA I and II, aged 18-65 years, and scheduled for ENT surgery between December 20, 2017, and March 20, 2018. Patients were randomly assigned to Group A and Group B. Immediately after the procedure, Group A patients received single dose of intravenous (IV) dexamethasone (10 mg/kg) and Group B patients were given propofol (0.5 mg/kg, IV), and equal follow-up was employed. The incidence of PONV was noted at 6th, 12th, and 24th hour of drug administration. Independent t-test and Mann-Whitney test were used for comparison of symmetric numerical and asymmetric data between groups, respectively. Categorical data were analyzed with the chi-square test, and p value of < 0.05 was considered as level of significance.

RESULTS

The incidences of PONV throughout the 24-hour postoperative period were 35% in the propofol group and 25% in the dexamethasone group. Statistical significance was found in incidence of PONV (0% versus 22.5%) and use of antiemetic (0% versus 5%) between dexamethasone and propofol groups, respectively, at 12-24 hours. Over 24 hours, 5% in dexamethasone group and 12.5% in propofol group developed moderate PONV, while none of the participants felt severe PONV.

CONCLUSIONS

Dexamethasone was more effective than propofol to prevent PONV with lower requirements of rescue antiemetics.

Knowledge, and attitude as determinants of healthcare professionals' self-medication practice to antibacterials in Tertiary Care hospitals, North West Ethiopia

The rise of antimicrobial resistance, driven largely by the inappropriate use of antibiotics, presents a significant global health challenge. Healthcare professionals (HCPs) self-medication practice (SMP) with antibiotics is a concerning practice. The role of knowledge, and attitudes, in shaping SMP has not been explored, in the context of Ethiopia. This study aims to investigate the patterns of antibiotic use, knowledge, attitudes, and associated the factors with SMP among healthcare professionals in tertiary hospitals in Bahir Dar, North West Ethiopia. A cross-sectional study was conducted from September 2023 to February 2024 in two tertiary hospitals in Bahir Dar, Ethiopia. The study included 410 healthcare professionals selected using proportional allocation and convenience sampling. A structured, self-administered questionnaire was used to assess participants' demographics, knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding antibiotic use. Knowledge was assessed through scoring, and attitudes were evaluated using a Likert scale. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 27.0, employing bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to identify factors associated with SMA. Knowledge assessment revealed that 58.5% had good knowledge. In terms of job categories, nurses comprised the largest group (48.8%). A majority (60.2%) had 1-5 years of experience. 57.8% of participants exhibited a poor attitude to SMP. Respiratory infections (20.61%) were the most common health condition reported, followed by gastrointestinal infections (15.43%). The most frequently used antibiotics were amoxicillin (35%), augmentin (25%), and azithromycin (25%). Key factors influencing SMA included ease of access to antibiotics (36%), cost-effectiveness (23%), and knowledge/expertise (22%). Time constraints, perceived severity of conditions, and past self-medication experiences were also significant factors. While 83.8% considered self-medication to be safe, 75% recognized the potential adverse effects of medications. The multivariate analysis revealed that being a physician (AOR = 23.39) or a pharmacist (AOR = 7.79) was strongly associated with self-medication. Degree holders, MSc holders, and specialized physicians were also more likely to self-medicate. A poor attitude was a significant determinant, with healthcare professionals displaying poor attitudes being almost twice as likely to self-medicate (AOR = 1.91). The findings highlight the prevalent practice of self-medication with antibiotics among healthcare professionals in Ethiopia, influenced by factors such as knowledge, access to antibiotics, and professional attitudes. The study highlights the urgent need for targeted interventions to enhance healthcare professionals' knowledge and attitudes regarding responsible antibiotic use while addressing their own practices of self-medication.

Characteristics and Quality Appraisal of the Economic Evaluations Done in Ethiopia: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Health economic evaluation identifies, measures, values, and compares alternative strategies to efficiently allocate scarce resources. The validity, methodological quality, and generalizability of economic evaluations must be assessed, as poorly designed studies can lead to incorrect conclusions. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the quality and characteristics of published economic evaluations done in Ethiopia, using the Quality of Health Economics Studies (QHES) and Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) instruments.

METHODOLOGY

Various electronic databases were searched using different keywords. We included only original studies conducted in Ethiopia that evaluated the cost and consequences of at least two health interventions. Abstracts, treatment guidelines, reviews, expert opinions, and studies that included other countries were excluded. Two reviewers independently evaluated each study using the QHES and CHEERS instruments and any disagreements were then resolved by a third reviewer.

RESULT

The study included 21 studies published between 2002 and 2021. HIV was the most frequently evaluated medical condition, examined in four (19.06%) of the 21 studies. Seventeen of the studies (80.95%) compared healthcare services or programs, while the other four examined pharmaceutical products. Cost-utility analysis was the economic evaluation technique used in 14 studies (66.67%). Of the studies that disclosed their funding sources, foreign institutions were involved in funding 71.43% of them. Disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) was an outcome metric used in nine (42.86%) studies. The average QHES score of the studies was 82%. Fourteen studies had QHES scores of ≥75% and two had scores of <50%. The studies evaluated using the CHEERS instrument ranged in quality from 42.9% to 92.9%, with an average of 78.23%.

CONCLUSION

Our study revealed that Ethiopia lacks health economic evaluations, particularly on non-communicable diseases. This indicates that the economic evaluation of healthcare interventions in Ethiopia is still in its early stages. Additionally, Ethiopian institutions have played a very limited role in funding research, highlighting the importance of active participation from local institutions.

Community Pharmacists' Knowledge and Attitude Towards Opioid Pain Medication Use in Bahir Dar City, North-West Ethiopia

Background

Opioid use is a major global public health problem, affecting 16 million individuals worldwide. According to a 2023 WHO report, out of the 600,000 substance-related deaths worldwide, 80% were attributed to opioid use. Pharmacists play a vital role in reducing unnecessary opioid exposure while facilitating access to non-opioid alternatives. To do so, pharmacists should have sufficient knowledge regarding opioid-containing medications and a positive attitude about opioid use problems.

Objective

This study aimed to evaluate community pharmacists' knowledge of opioid-containing medications and their attitude toward opioid use problems.

Materials and methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted using a self-administered, structured questionnaire distributed to 105 community pharmacists from July 1-30, 2023 in Bahir Dar City, Ethiopia. The tool included demographic information and questions designed to assess participants' knowledge and attitudes.

Results

Out of the 105 pharmacists included in this study, majority were males (54.3%), nearly half held a bachelor's degree (49.5%), and slightly above one-third had over a decade experience (39%). Regarding knowledge and attitude towards opioids, 62 individuals (59%) exhibited good knowledge, and 64 (61%) demonstrated less stigma toward opioid usage. Factors affecting knowledge include: education level (AOR (95% CI): 8.43 (1.76-40.35) and 9.93 (1.04-85.33) for bachelors and postgraduates respectively and age 1.45 (1.20-1.77)]. Meanwhile, experience [AOR (95% CI): 4.64(1.20-17.90) and 4.29 (1.23-15.05)] for 5-9 years and ≥10 years respectively and education level [AOR (95% CI): 4.08 (1.40-11.93) for bachelors and 6.40 (1.42-28.96)] for postgraduates were linked to attitude.

Conclusion

A gap in knowledge and more stigmatizing behavior was observed among community pharmacists. These findings imply the importance of tailored educational interventions to address knowledge gaps and promote positive attitudes toward opioid usage among community pharmacists. Therefore, it is imperative to deliver up-to-date information on opioids, emphasizing their high addiction potential, to ensure pharmacists are well-equipped with the latest information.

Artificial intelligence based predictive tools for identifying type 2 diabetes patients at high risk of treatment Non-adherence: A systematic review

AIMS

Several Artificial Intelligence (AI) based predictive tools have been developed to predict non-adherence among patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Hence, this study aimed to describe and evaluate the methodological quality of AI based predictive tools for identifying T2D patients at high risk of treatment non-adherence.

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted across multiple databases including, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, MedLine, and Google Scholar search. The Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST) was used to assess the quality of studies. The performances of tools were assessed by Area Under the Curve (AUC), precision, recall, C-index, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity or F1 score.

RESULTS

Most studies measured predictive ability using AUC (75 %), and some only reported precision (25 %), recall (12.5 %), C-index (12.5 %), accuracy (37.5), sensitivity (12.5 %), specificity (12.5 %) or F1 score (25 %). All tools had moderate to high predictive ability (AUC > 0.70). However, only one study conducted external validation. Demographic characteristics, HbA1c, glucose monitoring data, and treatment details were typical factors used in developing tools.

CONCLUSIONS

The existing AI based tools holds significant promise for improving diabetes care. However, future studies should focus on refining the existing tools, validating in other settings, and evaluating the cost-effectiveness of AI-supported interventions.

Inappropriate ceftriaxone utilization and predictor factors in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Ceftriaxone stands as a cornerstone in global antibiotic therapy owing to its potent antibacterial activity, broad spectrum coverage, and low toxicity. Nevertheless, its efficacy is impeded by widespread inappropriate prescribing and utilization practices, significantly contributing to bacterial resistance. The aim of this study is to determine the overall national pooled prevalence of inappropriate ceftriaxone utilization and its predictor factors in Ethiopia. A systematic search was conducted across multiple databases including, PubMed, Science Direct, Hinari, Global Index Medicus, Scopus, Embase, and a search engine, Google Scholar, to identify relevant literatures that meet the research question, from March 20 to 30, 2024. This meta-analysis, which was conducted in Ethiopia by incorporating 17 full-text articles, unveiled a national pooled inappropriate ceftriaxone utilization of 55.24% (95% CI, 42.17%, 68.30%) with a substantial heterogeneity index (I2 = 99.24%, p value < 0.001). The review has also identified predictive factors for the inappropriate use of ceftriaxone: empiric therapy (AOR 21.43, 95% CI; 9.26-49.59); multiple medication co-prescription (AOR: 4.12, 95% CI; 1.62-8.05). Emergency ward (AOR: 4.22, 95% CI; 1.8-12.24), surgery ward (AOR: 2.6, 95% CI; 1.44-7.82) compared to medical ward, prophylactic use (AOR: 500, 95% CI; 41.7-1000), longer hospital stay-8-14 Days; (AOR: 0.167, 95% CI; 0.09-0.29), > 14 days; (AOR: 0.18, 95% CI; 0.1-0.32). The study reveals a high national pooled prevalence of inappropriate ceftriaxone utilization, standing at 55.24%, highlighting a significant hazard in the use of this antibiotic. This could be attributed to instances of overuse, misuse or prescription practices that deviates from established guidelines. This eminent challenge can lead to the development of antibiotic resistance, increased healthcare costs, adverse drug reactions, and treatment failures, necessitating multifaceted approach such as improved antibiotic stewardship, better adherence to guidelines, and enhanced clinician education on appropriate antibiotic use.

Assessment of availability and challenges of WHO recommended priority life-saving medicines for under five-year children in primary public health facilities of Amhara region

BACKGROUND

The world health organization (WHO) priority lifesaving medicines are medicines recommended for the prevention and treatment of leading causes of under-five morbidity and mortality. They should be available in all health systems and at all times. However, the availability of these medicines and its determinants is not well studied in Ethiopia in general and in primary public health facilities Amhara region in particular.

OBJECTIVE

The study aimed to assess the availability and challenges of the WHO-recommended priority lifesaving medicines for under-five children in primary public health facilities of the Amhara region.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study design was conducted from February to December 2020 in 98 health centers and 22 primary hospitals in the Amhara region, Ethiopia. Facilities were selected with a simple random sampling technique. The data were collected through a pretested and structured questionnaire. Binary logistic regression was used to identify predictors associated with availability of WHO-recommended priority lifesaving medicines for under-five children.

RESULTS

The availability of oral rehydration salt was high (82.5%) and the availability of vitamin A (47.5%), morphine tablet (13.3%), and artesunate rectal suppository (7.5%) were within low and very low WHO range respectively. Budget adequacy (AOR = 12.9 CI= (2.1-78.2)), periodic review of stock level ((AOR = 13.4,CI=(1.9-92.0)), training on integrated pharmaceutical logistic system ((AOR = 4.5,CI=(1.0-20.5)), inclusion of WHO priority under five children facility specific medicine list (AOR = 12.4,CI=(2.3-66.4)), lead time for EPSA(Ethiopia Pharmaceutical Supply Agency) procurement (AOR = 7.9,CI=(1.3-44.8)) were significantly associated with availability of all WHO priority lifesaving medicines for under- five children.

CONCLUSION

The average availability of WHO-recommended priority lifesaving medicines for under-five children was low. The habit of updating bincard and adoption of the life-saving medicine list were the independent predictors of medication availability.

Patients' satisfaction with post-operative pain management in Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study

Introduction

surgical patients often suffer from inadequate treatment of post-operative pain which potentially results in numerous adverse medical consequences and is a recurring source of patients' dissatisfaction. Thus, this study aimed to investigate patient's satisfaction with their post-operative pain management and its determinants among surgically treated patients in a specialized hospital within Ethiopia.

Methods

an institutional-based prospective cross-sectional study was conducted in the surgical ward of Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital. Data were collected using a semi-structured questionnaire, which was an adoption of the 2010 version of the American Pain Society Patient Outcome Questionnaire, and by reviewing the medical charts of the patients. A stepwise linear regression model was used to analyze the data.

Results

among the 144 patients approached in this study, 112 (77.8%) of them categorized their postoperative pain as moderate to severe. The mean patient satisfaction with their pain management was 7±2.3 on 0-10 numerical rating scale. Despite high levels of pain, the majority of patients (90.3%, n=131) were moderately or completely satisfied with their pain management. Stepwise linear regression analysis found that the determinants of patients' satisfaction were prior chronic pain, prior surgical history, and substance use (F (3,140) = 5.364, adjusted R2= 0.084, P=0.02).

Conclusion

the patients were moderately and completely satisfied with their pain management in spite of expressing moderate and severe level of pain intensity. Pain still remains a concern among surgical patients, and effective pain management strategies should be practiced to manage pain and its functional interferences more effectively.

Vaccine skepticism and vaccine development stages; inoculation from "cowpox" lesion to the current mRNA vaccine of COVID-19: review

Global pandemics can be tackled by two means: lockdowns and vaccinations. As vaccination has a low impact on economic outcomes and better acceptance by people, it is the preferred method by most governments as a medium- to long-term solution. Vaccines have played a significant role in reducing the global burden of infectious diseases. They are designed to teach the immune system how to fight a particular infection before it causes a disease in subsequent exposures by creating a memory. Although vaccines effectiveness is well known, anti-vaccination movements pose significant challenges, even in high-income settings, leading to outbreaks of life-threatening infectious diseases. Hesitancy to take vaccines is not new and began with the first vaccination of smallpox. At that time, the problem was solved by a regulatory obligation to take vaccines, declared in England and Wales in 1853, which eventually led to its eradication in 1980. Different studies show that there is a decline in awareness of vaccines, hesitancy to take them, and concerns and trust issues regarding healthcare professionals. These problems have been rising over the past few decades for several reasons, notably, because of misinformation spread by social media. Therefore, the objective of this review is to provide a brief overview about vaccine hesitancy and attributable factors, illustrate the different types of vaccines, show the major challenges of vaccine development, and illustrate the pros and cons of each type.

Determinants t of patient satisfaction with pharmacy services at Felege Hiwot comprehensive specialized hospital, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

Background

Patients have explicit desire for quality services when they visit health institutions. Patient satisfaction is a primary means of measuring the effectiveness of healthcare delivery. However, inadequate discovery of their needs may result in patient dissatisfaction. Patients who are satisfied with pharmaceutical care are likely to adherence, seeking for medical attentions and take medications properly. Providing better access to quality pharmacies is a way to improve patient satisfaction with healthcare services.

Study objective

The study was aimed to assess patient satisfaction with pharmacy services at Felege Hiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospital (FHCSH).

Methods and materials

An institution-based cross-sectional study design was conducted at FHCSH from 1 May 2021 to 30 October 2021. Data were collected by interview with structured questionnaires. Then the data were coded, entered, and then analyzed by SPSS version 23. The association between predictors and outcome was measured using bivariate logistic regression.

Result

In this study, 384 study participants were included. Majority of the participants were males (55.37%, N=227). The overall satisfaction score of the participants of this study was 65.37%. In our study, clients showed greater satisfaction towards pharmacists' commitment to correct myths (92%), pharmacist availability (88.78), and cleanliness (87.8%). Multivariate analysis indicated physical restriction [adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=6:95%; 95% CI (2.98, 25.9)] and rural residence [AOR=2.43; 95% CI (1.71, 9.6)] had significant association with pharmacy service dissatisfaction. Among the quality pharmacy service indicators, counselling on how medications work [AOR=9; 95% CI (1.48, 8.85)], keeping to dosage regimen [AOR=7.3; 95% CI (5.49, 11.06)], and advice on the current medical condition had greater odds of client dissatisfaction.

Conclusion

The findings of the current study showed that patients' satisfaction towards outpatient pharmacy services provided by FHCSH is very low as it is indicated in their perception towards revealing written information about medication use, medication availability, medication storage, and instructions about medication side effects.

Assessment of Self-Medication Practice and Its Determinants Among Undergraduate Health Science Students of College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Bahir Dar University, North West Ethiopia: A Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

Self-medication (SM) is the use of drugs or herbs to treat self-diagnosed physical ailments or symptoms without consulting a healthcare professional. It plays a great role in daily life and common in the healthcare system around the globe, especially in developing countries. Due to their expertise, health science students are also predicted to practice it more frequently.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the use of SM and its determinants among undergraduate health science students at the College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Bahir Dar University, North West Ethiopia.

METHODS

241 students took part in the study from September to November 2021. Using a recall time of four weeks, a quantitative descriptive cross-sectional study was utilized to evaluate the practice of self-medication and associated factors. Interviews and structured questionnaires were used to collect the data. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 25.

RESULTS

Overall, 246 students were approached. The questionnaire received responses from 241 students, for a 98% response rate. Self-medication was used by 58.1% of students over the course of the previous four weeks. Analgesic and antipyretic medications were the most often utilized pharmacological category (57.1%), followed by antibiotics (42.1%). The most frequent (50%) complaints involving SM were headache and fever. The mildness of the sickness was the primary factor in the study participants' practice of self-medication (50%). Self-medication is linked to gender (AOR: 3.415; 95% CI: 1.014-11.503), poor monthly income (AOR: 0.007; 0.0003-0.175), pharmacy student status (AOR: 52.603; 4.371-633.098), and medical laboratory student status (AOR: 0.037; 0.002-0.631).

CONCLUSION

Self-medication was common among health science students. Students frequently use over-the-counter and prescription-only medications for SM. Sex, field of study and monthly income are independent predictors for SM use. Though it is not absolutely discouraged, awareness on the associated risks should be created.