An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence

We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S. This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density function (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult-to-quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6-3.9 K for our Baseline calculation and remains within 2.3-4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5-95% ranges are 2.3-4.7 K, bounded by 2.0-5.7 K (although such high-confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S, in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing-feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes.

Penultimate deglacial warming across the Mediterranean Sea revealed by clumped isotopes in foraminifera

The variability of seawater temperature through time is a critical measure of climate change, yet its reconstruction remains problematic in many regions. Mg/Ca and oxygen isotope (δ¹⁸O_C) measurements in foraminiferal carbonate shells can be combined to reconstruct seawater temperature and δ¹⁸O (δ¹⁸O_SW). The latter is a measure of changes in local hydrology (e.g., precipitation/evaporation, freshwater inputs) and global ice volume. But diagenetic processes may affect foraminiferal Mg/Ca. This restricts its potential in many places, including the Mediterranean Sea, a strategic region for deciphering global climate and sea-level changes. High alkalinity/salinity conditions especially bias Mg/Ca temperatures in the eastern Mediterranean (eMed). Here we advance the understanding of both western Mediterranean (wMed) and eMed hydrographic variability through the penultimate glacial termination (TII) and last interglacial, by applying the clumped isotope (Δ₄₇) paleothermometer to planktic foraminifera with a novel data-processing approach. Results suggest that North Atlantic cooling during Heinrich stadial 11 (HS11) affected surface-water temperatures much more in the wMed (during winter/spring) than in the eMed (during summer). The method’s paired Δ₄₇ and δ¹⁸O_C data also portray δ¹⁸O_SW. These records reveal a clear HS11 freshwater signal, which attenuated toward the eMed, and also that last interglacial surface warming in the eMed was strongly amplified by water-column stratification during the deposition of the organic-rich (sapropel) interval known as S5.

Bipolar seesaw control on last interglacial sea level

Our current understanding of ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere interactions at ice-age terminations relies largely on assessments of the most recent (last) glacial-interglacial transition, Termination I (T-I). But the extent to which T-I is representative of previous terminations remains unclear. Testing the consistency of termination processes requires comparison of time series of critical climate parameters with detailed absolute and relative age control. However, such age control has been lacking for even the penultimate glacial termination (T-II), which culminated in a sea-level highstand during the last interglacial period that was several metres above present. Here we show that Heinrich Stadial 11 (HS11), a prominent North Atlantic cold episode, occurred between 135 ± 1 and 130 ± 2 thousand years ago and was linked with rapid sea-level rise during T-II. Our conclusions are based on new and existing data for T-II and the last interglacial that we collate onto a single, radiometrically constrained chronology. The HS11 cold episode punctuated T-II and coincided directly with a major deglacial meltwater pulse, which predominantly entered the North Atlantic Ocean and accounted for about 70 per cent of the glacial-interglacial sea-level rise. We conclude that, possibly in response to stronger insolation and CO2 forcing earlier in T-II, the relationship between climate and ice-volume changes differed fundamentally from that of T-I. In T-I, the major sea-level rise clearly post-dates Heinrich Stadial 1. We also find that HS11 coincided with sustained Antarctic warming, probably through a bipolar seesaw temperature response, and propose that this heat gain at high southern latitudes promoted Antarctic ice-sheet melting that fuelled the last interglacial sea-level peak.

Plio-Pleistocene climate sensitivity evaluated using high-resolution CO2 records

Theory and climate modelling suggest that the sensitivity of Earth's climate to changes in radiative forcing could depend on the background climate. However, palaeoclimate data have thus far been insufficient to provide a conclusive test of this prediction. Here we present atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) reconstructions based on multi-site boron-isotope records from the late Pliocene epoch (3.3 to 2.3 million years ago). We find that Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2-based radiative forcing (Earth system sensitivity) was half as strong during the warm Pliocene as during the cold late Pleistocene epoch (0.8 to 0.01 million years ago). We attribute this difference to the radiative impacts of continental ice-volume changes (the ice-albedo feedback) during the late Pleistocene, because equilibrium climate sensitivity is identical for the two intervals when we account for such impacts using sea-level reconstructions. We conclude that, on a global scale, no unexpected climate feedbacks operated during the warm Pliocene, and that predictions of equilibrium climate sensitivity (excluding long-term ice-albedo feedbacks) for our Pliocene-like future (with CO2 levels up to maximum Pliocene levels of 450 parts per million) are well described by the currently accepted range of an increase of 1.5 K to 4.5 K per doubling of CO2.

Sea-level and deep-sea-temperature variability over the past 5.3 million years

Ice volume (and hence sea level) and deep-sea temperature are key measures of global climate change. Sea level has been documented using several independent methods over the past 0.5 million years (Myr). Older periods, however, lack such independent validation; all existing records are related to deep-sea oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) data that are influenced by processes unrelated to sea level. For deep-sea temperature, only one continuous high-resolution (Mg/Ca-based) record exists, with related sea-level estimates, spanning the past 1.5 Myr. Here we present a novel sea-level reconstruction, with associated estimates of deep-sea temperature, which independently validates the previous 0-1.5 Myr reconstruction and extends it back to 5.3 Myr ago. We find that deep-sea temperature and sea level generally decreased through time, but distinctly out of synchrony, which is remarkable given the importance of ice-albedo feedbacks on the radiative forcing of climate. In particular, we observe a large temporal offset during the onset of Plio-Pleistocene ice ages, between a marked cooling step at 2.73 Myr ago and the first major glaciation at 2.15 Myr ago. Last, we tentatively infer that ice sheets may have grown largest during glacials with more modest reductions in deep-sea temperature.

Regional synthesis of Mediterranean atmospheric circulation during the Last Glacial Maximum

Atmospheric circulation leaves few direct traces in the geological record, making reconstructions of this crucial element of the climate system inherently difficult. We produced a regional Mediterranean synthesis of paleo-proxy data from the sea surface to alpine altitudes. This provides a detailed observational context for change in the three-dimensional structure of atmospheric circulation between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, approximately 23,000 to 19,000 years ago) and the present. The synthesis reveals evidence for frequent cold polar air incursions, topographically channeled into the northwestern Mediterranean. Anomalously steep vertical temperature gradients in the central Mediterranean imply local convective precipitation. We find the LGM patterns to be analogous, though amplified, to previously reconstructed phases of enhanced meridional winter circulation during the Maunder Minimum (the Little Ice Age).

Sea-level fluctuations during the last glacial cycle

The last glacial cycle was characterized by substantial millennial-scale climate fluctuations, but the extent of any associated changes in global sea level (or, equivalently, ice volume) remains elusive. Highstands of sea level can be reconstructed from dated fossil coral reef terraces, and these data are complemented by a compilation of global sea-level estimates based on deep-sea oxygen isotope ratios at millennial-scale resolution or higher. Records based on oxygen isotopes, however, contain uncertainties in the range of +/-30 m, or +/-1 degrees C in deep sea temperature. Here we analyse oxygen isotope records from Red Sea sediment cores to reconstruct the history of water residence times in the Red Sea. We then use a hydraulic model of the water exchange between the Red Sea and the world ocean to derive the sill depth-and hence global sea level-over the past 470,000 years (470 kyr). Our reconstruction is accurate to within +/-12 m, and gives a centennial-scale resolution from 70 to 25 kyr before present. We find that sea-level changes of up to 35 m, at rates of up to 2 cm yr(-1), occurred, coincident with abrupt changes in climate.

Palaeoceanography and numerical modelling: the Mediterranean Sea at times of sapropel formation

Palaeo-circulation concepts based on (micro-)palaeontological records are compared with results of a general circulation model (GCM), in a review of the eastern Mediterranean conditions during sapropel S1 deposition (7–8ka bp). We discuss two conceptual models, based on proxy data, which integrate bottom water anoxia and high productivity during sapropel formation. One infers a weakened version of the present-day anti-estuarine circulation, whereas the other invokes a reversal of the circulation to an estuarine type. Although both seem reasonable, in view of the available palaeoceanographic proxy data, they imply completely different states of the Mediterranean fresh-water budget. Numerical modelling has been based on three available reconstructions of changes in the west-east salinity gradient compared with present-day conditions (small decrease, intermediate decrease and reversing). The three scenarios give surprisingly similar results. The interface between the surface and intermediate water has shoaled significantly compared with the present, which fuels a deep chlorophyll maximum. All three simulations show stagnant deep waters, which could cause bottom water anoxia. Reversal of circulation is not observed, not even in the reconstruction of most extreme salinity changes. The combined approach of palaeoceanographic and numerical modelling reviewed in this paper shows that modelling provides an indispensable feedback on the viability of the various proxy-based conceptual models.