Predicting the long-term impact of rotavirus vaccination in 112 countries from 2006 to 2034: A transmission modeling analysis

Rotavirus vaccination has been shown to reduce rotavirus burden in many countries, but the long-term magnitude of vaccine impacts is unclear, particularly in low-income countries. We use a transmission model to estimate the long-term impact of rotavirus vaccination on deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) from 2006 to 2034 for 112 low- and middle-income countries. We also explore the predicted effectiveness of a one- vs two- dose series and the relative contribution of direct vs indirect effects to overall impacts. To validate the model, we compare predicted percent reductions in severe rotavirus cases with the percent reduction in rotavirus positivity among gastroenteritis hospital admissions for 10 countries with pre- and post-vaccine introduction data. We estimate that vaccination would reduce deaths from rotavirus by 49.1 % (95 % UI: 46.6-54.3 %) by 2034 under realistic coverage scenarios, compared to a scenario without vaccination. Most of this benefit is due to direct benefit to vaccinated individuals (explaining 69-97 % of the overall impact), but indirect protection also appears to enhance impacts. We find that a one-dose schedule would only be about 57 % as effective as a two-dose schedule 12 years after vaccine introduction. Our model closely reproduced observed reductions in rotavirus positivity in the first few years after vaccine introduction in select countries. Rotavirus vaccination is likely to have a substantial impact on rotavirus gastroenteritis and its mortality burden. To sustain this benefit, the complete series of doses is needed.

Sustained impact of rotavirus vaccine on rotavirus hospitalisations in Lusaka, Zambia, 2009-2016

BACKGROUND

Monovalent rotavirus vaccine (RV1) was introduced in Lusaka in February 2012 and rolled out countrywide in November 2013 in the routine Expanded Programme on Immunisation and administered at 6 and 10 weeks with no catch up dose. Reported here is the monitoring of rotavirus acute gastroenteritis hospitalisations at the University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia as part of efforts to document the impact of rotavirus vaccine.

METHODS

Children <5 years hospitalised for acute gastroenteritis (AGE) from January 2009 to December 2016 were recruited into the rotavirus disease burden active surveillance and had their stools tested for rotavirus by enzyme immunoassay. We compared rotavirus-associated AGE hospitalisations of the pre-vaccine era (2009-2011) with the post-rotavirus vaccine introduction period (2013-2016).

RESULTS

With the increase in RV1 coverage in Lusaka, rotavirus AGE declined significantly from 40% of diarrhoea hospitalisation in the pre-vaccine era to 29% of diarrhoea hospitalisation in the post-vaccine era (p < 0.001) in children <5 years. After a decreasing trend in rotavirus positivity from 2013 to 2015, positivity increased to 37% in 2016. However, the post-vaccine years (2012-2016) saw substantial decline in the number tested (median decline: 34% (range: 20-43%)) and the number of positive results (median decline: 52% (range: 30-65%).

CONCLUSION

A sustained and significant decline in rotavirus AGE hospitalisations was observed in children <5 years since the introduction of RV1 in Lusaka, Zambia. Despite an increase in rotavirus positivity in 2016, the total number of children enrolled and the number of rotavirus positive children remained below baseline. The reason for the increase in rotavirus positivity in 2016 is unknown but could be due to an accumulation of susceptible children and the shifting of disease to children of older age groups. This finding underscores the need for continued monitoring of rotavirus vaccine impact.

Respiratory syncytial virus infection in children with acute respiratory infections in Zambia

Epidemiological research on respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections in children was carried out at the Virology Laboratory, University Teaching Hospital (UTH), in Lusaka, Zambia, from January-December 1996. Specimens including 736 nasal washings and 2424 throat swabs were collected from children with acute respiratory infections (ARI) and tested for RSV by enzyme immunoassay and by virus isolation. RSV was isolated in 62 (4.1%) of 1496 throat swabs collected from March to September and was detected in 99 (16.3%) of 609 nasal washings from March to November. The average RSV isolation rate was 2.6% and the average RSV detection rate was 13.5%. The highest RSV isolation (8.1%) and detection (30.5%) rates were in June 1996. RSV antibody in the 278 serum specimens collected from Zambian children, who were hospitalized in the paediatric ward, UTH, was detected using a standard neutralization test. The antibody positive rate was 60-80% in children > 4 years. It is evident that RSV is one of the main causal agents of ARI in children in Zambia.

Epidemiology of influenza virus infections in children with acute respiratory infections in Zambia

A viral aetiological and epidemiological study of acute respiratory infections (ARI) in children was carried out in Lusaka, Zambia between June 1993 and September 1995. A total of 3,760 throat swab specimens were collected for virus isolation from children under 5 years of age who had ARI and were attending three health centres in Lusaka. Between June and November 1993, 52 cases of the influenza A/H3N2 viruses were isolated. Between May and July 1994, 34 influenza B cases were isolated. In 1995, one A/H3N2 influenza virus was isolated in January and then the same type of influenza virus was isolated from 55 samples between June and August. The isolation rate of influenza virus was highest at 14.3% (20/139) in August 1993, at 15.1% (18/119) in June 1994 and at 25.4% (43/169) in July 1995. This is the first report of a consecutive study of influenza virus infections in Zambia and the results reveal that influenza virus infections are one of the most important pathogens of ARI in children in the cool, dry season (June-August) in this country.

An outbreak of influenza A/H3N2 in a Zambian school dormitory

There was an outbreak of "a mysterious disease" at a Zambian school dormitory in September, 1993. Investigation with questionnaire and collection of throat swab specimens for virus isolation were carried out on 46 patients to identify the causative agent. In this outbreak, most of the patients showed similar symptoms such as fever, headache, sore throat, cough, etc. The disease had spread to all dormitories within a couple of days after the onset of the first cases. From these patients, 13 influenza viruses A/H3N2 were isolated on MDCK cell line. This was a first ever confirmed outbreak of influenza virus infection in Zambia.