Clinical risk prediction for left atrial appendage thrombus among patients with atrial fibrillation

Background

Exclusion of left atrial appendage thrombus (LAAT) by transoesophageal echocardiography (TOE) is recommended in patients with inadequate anticoagulation prior to direct cardioversion (DCR) or catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF/AFL). LAAT risk factors in this population remain poorly defined.

Purpose

Determine LAAT predictors in AF/AFL patients undergoing pre-procedural TOE.

Methods

We evaluated available clinical and transthoracic echocardiographic (TTE) parameters in AF/AFL patients undergoing TOE between 1999–2022 in our institution in Melbourne, Australia. Regression analysis identified predictors of LAAT, which were applied to a weighted score developed in the derivation cohort (70%) and validated in the remaining 30%.

Results

Of 627 patients (age 62±12 years, 27% female, AF 84%,AFL 16%, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) 44±20%), 24% had LAAT and 13.8% dense spontaneous echo contrast precluding DCR. Anticoagulation was NOAC 56.5%, warfarin 32.1% and none in 11.4%. In the LAAT cohort, thrombus resolution occurred in 39% on serial transoesophageal imaging with a median time to resolution of 131 days (IQR 54–398).

Diabetes (p=0.004), prior stroke (p=0.009), coronary disease (p=0.015), renal impairment (p<0.001) and CHADS2VASc >2 (73% vs. 55%, p<0.001) were higher in the LAAT cohort. Age (p=0.093), gender (p=0.689), BMI (p=0.828), anticoagulant type (p=0.316) and diabetes (p=0.107) were not univariate predictors, whereas anticoagulation duration (<30 days), creatinine and TTE markers of remodeling (LVEF, LAVI, RVSP and TAPSE) were independent predictors on univariate and multivariate regression; CHADS2VASc was not significant after adjustment (p=0.090). The weighted risk model included continuous (age, creatinine, LVEF, LAVI, TAPSE and RVSP) and categorical (anticoagulation duration) variables with excellent predictive performance: AUC 0.872 (95% CI 0.798–0.946), PPV 91%, NPV 70% and accuracy 80%.

Conclusion

A novel LAAT risk model comprising clinical and echocardiographic parameters enhances risk prediction over CHADS2VASc in AF/AFL and may guide the need for pre-procedural TOE imaging.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

The unfolded protein response: no longer just a special teams player

The endoplasmic reticulum stress pathway known as the unfolded protein response is currently the best understood model of interorganellar signal transduction. Bridging a physical separation, the pathway provides a direct line of communication between the endoplasmic reticulum lumen and the nucleus. With the unfolded protein response, the cell has the means to monitor and respond to the changing needs of the endoplasmic reticulum. Beginning with the discovery of its remarkable signaling mechanism in yeast, the unfolded protein response has not ceased to reveal more of its many secrets. By applying powerful biochemical, genetic, genomic, and cytological approaches, the recent efforts of many groups have buried the long-held notion that the unfolded protein response is simply a regulatory platform for endoplasmic reticulum chaperones. We now know that the unfolded protein response regulates many genes that affect diverse aspects of cellular physiology. In addition, studies in mammals have revealed novel unfolded protein response signaling factors that may contribute to the specialized needs of multicellular organisms. This article focuses on these and other recent developments in the field.