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Jahagirdar D, Walters MK, Novotney A, Brewer ED, Frank TD, Carter A, Biehl MH, Abbastabar H, Abhilash ES, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Raddad LJ, Adekanmbi V, Adeyinka DA, Adnani QES, Afzal S, Aghababaei S, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad S, Ahmadi K, Ahmadi S, Ahmadpour E, Ahmed MB, Ahmed Rashid T, Ahmed Salih Y, Aklilu A, Akram T, Akunna CJ, Al Hamad H, Alahdab F, Alanezi FM, Aleksandrova EA, Alene KA, Ali L, Alipour V, Almustanyir S, Alvis-Guzman N, Ameyaw EK, Amu H, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Anvari D, Arabloo J, Aremu O, Arulappan J, Atnafu DD, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayza MA, Azari S, B DB, Banach M, Bärnighausen TW, Barra F, Barrow A, Basu S, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Belay HG, Berheto TM, Bezabhe WM, Bezabih YM, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharyya K, Bibi S, Bijani A, Bisignano C, Bolarinwa OA, Boloor A, Boltaev AA, Briko NI, Buonsenso D, Burkart K, Butt ZA, Cao C, Charan J, Chatterjee S, Chattu SK, Chattu VK, Choudhari SG, Chu DT, Couto RAS, Cowden RG, Dachew BA, Dadras O, Dagnew AB, Dahlawi SMA, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, das Neves J, Degenhardt L, Demeke FM, Desta AA, Deuba K, Dhamnetiya D, Dhungana GP, Dianatinasab M, Diaz D, Djalalinia S, Doan LP, et alJahagirdar D, Walters MK, Novotney A, Brewer ED, Frank TD, Carter A, Biehl MH, Abbastabar H, Abhilash ES, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Raddad LJ, Adekanmbi V, Adeyinka DA, Adnani QES, Afzal S, Aghababaei S, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad S, Ahmadi K, Ahmadi S, Ahmadpour E, Ahmed MB, Ahmed Rashid T, Ahmed Salih Y, Aklilu A, Akram T, Akunna CJ, Al Hamad H, Alahdab F, Alanezi FM, Aleksandrova EA, Alene KA, Ali L, Alipour V, Almustanyir S, Alvis-Guzman N, Ameyaw EK, Amu H, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Anvari D, Arabloo J, Aremu O, Arulappan J, Atnafu DD, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayza MA, Azari S, B DB, Banach M, Bärnighausen TW, Barra F, Barrow A, Basu S, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Belay HG, Berheto TM, Bezabhe WM, Bezabih YM, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharyya K, Bibi S, Bijani A, Bisignano C, Bolarinwa OA, Boloor A, Boltaev AA, Briko NI, Buonsenso D, Burkart K, Butt ZA, Cao C, Charan J, Chatterjee S, Chattu SK, Chattu VK, Choudhari SG, Chu DT, Couto RAS, Cowden RG, Dachew BA, Dadras O, Dagnew AB, Dahlawi SMA, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, das Neves J, Degenhardt L, Demeke FM, Desta AA, Deuba K, Dhamnetiya D, Dhungana GP, Dianatinasab M, Diaz D, Djalalinia S, Doan LP, Dorostkar F, Edinur HA, Effiong A, Eftekharzadeh S, El Sayed Zaki M, Elayedath R, Elhadi M, El-Jaafary SI, El-Khatib Z, Elsharkawy A, Endalamaw A, Endries AY, Eskandarieh S, Ezeonwumelu IJ, Ezzikouri S, Farahmand M, Faraon EJA, Fasanmi AO, Ferrero S, Ferro Desideri L, Filip I, Fischer F, Folayan MO, Foroutan M, Fukumoto T, Gad MM, Gadanya MA, Gaidhane AM, Garg T, Gayesa RT, Gebreyohannes EA, Gesesew HA, Getachew Obsa A, Ghadiri K, Ghashghaee A, Gilani SA, Ginindza TG, Glavan IR, Glushkova EV, Golechha M, Gugnani HC, Gupta B, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Hamidi S, Handanagic S, Haque S, Harapan H, Hargono A, Hasaballah AI, Hashi A, Hassan S, Hassanipour S, Hayat K, Heredia-Pi I, Hezam K, Holla R, Hoogar P, Hoque ME, Hosseini M, Hosseinzadeh M, Hsairi M, Hussain R, Ibitoye SE, Idrisov B, Ikuta KS, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Irvani SSN, Islam MM, Ismail NE, Itumalla R, Iyamu IO, Jabbarinejad R, Jain V, Jayawardena R, Jha RP, Joseph N, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kalhor R, Kaliyadan F, Kamath A, Kanchan T, Kandel H, Kassahun G, Katoto PDMC, Kayode GA, Kebede EM, Kebede HK, Khajuria H, Khalid N, Khan EA, Khan G, Khatab K, Kim MS, Kim YJ, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kochhar S, Korshunov VA, Koul PA, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Kuate Defo B, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar N, Kwarteng A, Lal DK, Landires I, Lasrado S, Lassi ZS, Lazarus JV, Lee JJH, Lee YY, LeGrand KE, Lin C, Liu X, Maddison ER, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Mahasha PW, Majeed A, Makki A, Malik AA, Manamo WA, Mansournia MA, Martins-Melo FR, Masoumi SZ, Memish ZA, Menezes RG, Mengesha EW, Merie HE, Mersha AG, Mestrovic T, Meylakhs P, Mheidly N, Miller TR, Mirica A, Moazen B, Mohammad Y, Mohammadi M, Mohammed A, Mohammed S, Mohammed S, Moitra M, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Moni MA, Moradi G, Moradi Y, Mpundu-Kaambwa C, Mubarik S, Munro SB, Mwanri L, Nachega JB, Nagarajan AJ, Narayana AI, Naveed M, Nayak BP, Nduaguba SO, Neupane Kandel S, Nguefack-Tsague G, Nguyen TH, Nixon MR, Nnaji CA, Noubiap JJ, Nuñez-Samudio V, Nyirenda TE, Oghenetega OB, Olagunju AT, Olakunde BO, Owopetu OF, P A M, Padubidri JR, Pakhale S, Parekh T, Pashazadeh Kan F, Pawar S, Pepito VCF, Peprah EK, Pinheiro M, Pokhrel KN, Polibin RV, Pollok RCG, Postma MJ, Quazi Syed Z, Radfar A, Radhakrishnan RA, Rahim F, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahimzadeh S, Rahman M, Rahmani AM, Ram P, Ranabhat CL, Ranasinghe P, Rao CR, Rao SJ, Rathi P, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Regassa LD, Rehman IU, Renzaho AMN, Rezaei N, Rezahosseini O, Rezai MS, Rezapour A, Ripon RK, Rodrigues V, Roshchin DO, Rwegerera GM, Saeed U, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Sagar R, Saif-Ur-Rahman KM, Salem MR, Samaei M, Samy AM, Santric-Milicevic MM, Saroshe S, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Schutte AE, Seylani A, Shaikh MA, Shaka MF, Shamshad H, Shamsizadeh M, Shannawaz M, Shetty A, Shin JI, Shivakumar KM, Singh JA, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Somayaji R, Soshnikov S, Spurlock EE, Stein DJ, Sufiyan MB, Tadbiri H, Tadesse BT, Tadesse EG, Tamiru AT, Tarkang EE, Taveira N, Tekalegn Y, Tesfay FH, Tessema GA, Thapar R, Tovani-Palone MR, Traini E, Tran BX, Tsai AC, Tusa BS, Ullah S, Umeokonkwo CD, Unnikrishnan B, Valadan Tahbaz S, Villafañe JH, Vladimirov SK, Vo B, Vongpradith A, Vu GT, Waheed Y, Wamai RG, Wang G, Wang Y, Ward P, Westerman R, Winkler AS, Yadav L, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yazie TS, Yi S, Yigit V, Yirdaw BW, Yonemoto N, Yu C, Yunusa I, Zastrozhin MS, Zastrozhina A, Zhang ZJ, Zumla A, Salomon JA, Eaton JW, Naghavi M, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Wang H, Lim SS, Hay SI, Murray CJL, Kyu HH. Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990-2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019. Lancet HIV 2021; 8:e633-e651. [PMID: 34592142 PMCID: PMC8491452 DOI: 10.1016/s2352-3018(21)00152-1] [Show More Authors] [Citation(s) in RCA: 74] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2021] [Revised: 05/14/2021] [Accepted: 06/29/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. METHODS To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). FINDINGS In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1-38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78-0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91-1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95-1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58-35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49-42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05-0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76-2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. INTERPRETATION Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. FUNDING The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH.
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