The UVA/Padova Type 1 Diabetes Simulator Goes From Single Meal to Single Day

BACKGROUND

A new version of the UVA/Padova Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) Simulator is presented which provides a more realistic testing scenario. The upgrades to the previous simulator, which was accepted by the Food and Drug Administration in 2013, are described.

METHOD

Intraday variability of insulin sensitivity (S_I) has been modeled, based on clinical T1D data, accounting for both intra- and intersubject variability of daily S_I. Thus, time-varying distributions of both subject's basal insulin infusion and insulin-to-carbohydrate ratio were calculated and made available to the user. A model of "dawn" phenomenon based on clinical T1D data has been also included. Moreover, the model of subcutaneous insulin delivery has been updated with a recently developed model of commercially available fast-acting insulin analogs. Models of both intradermal and inhaled insulin pharmacokinetics have been included. Finally, new models of error affecting continuous glucose monitoring and self-monitoring of blood glucose devices have been added.

RESULTS

One hundred in silico adults, adolescent, and children have been generated according to the above modifications. The new simulator reproduces the intraday glucose variability observed in clinical data, also describing the nocturnal glucose increase, and the simulated insulin profiles reflect real life data.

CONCLUSIONS

The new modifications introduced in the T1D simulator allow to extend its domain of validity from "single-meal" to "single-day" scenarios, thus enabling a more realistic framework for in silico testing of advanced diabetes technologies including glucose sensors, new insulin molecules and artificial pancreas.

Effect of BGM Accuracy on the Clinical Performance of CGM: An In-Silico Study

BACKGROUND

Standard management of type 1 diabetes (T1D) relies on blood glucose monitoring based on a range of technologies from self-monitoring of blood glucose (BGM) to continuous glucose monitoring (CGM). Even as CGM technology matures, patients utilize BGM for calibration and dosing. The question of how the accuracy of both technologies interact is still not well understood.

METHODS

We use a recently developed data-driven simulation approach to characterize the relationship between CGM and BGM accuracy especially how BGM accuracy impacts CGM performance in four different use cases with increasing levels of reliance on twice daily calibrated CGM. Simulations are used to estimate clinical outcomes and isolate CGM and BGM accuracy characteristics that drive performance.

RESULTS

Our results indicate that meter (BGM) accuracy, and more specifically systematic positive or negative bias, has a significant effect on clinical performance (HbA1c and severe hypoglycemia events) in all use-cases generated for twice daily calibrated CGMs. Moreover, CGM sensor accuracy can amplify or mitigate, but not eliminate these effects.

CONCLUSION

As a system, BGM and CGM and their mode of use (use-case) interact to determine clinical outcomes. Clinical outcomes (eg, HbA1c, severe hypoglycemia, time in range) can be closely approximated by linear relationships with two BGM accuracy characteristics, namely error and bias. In turn, the coefficients of this linear relationship are determined by the use-case and by CGM accuracy (MARD).

Clinical Impact of Blood Glucose Monitoring Accuracy: An In-Silico Study

BACKGROUND

Patients with diabetes rely on blood glucose (BG) monitoring devices to manage their condition. As some self-monitoring devices are becoming more and more accurate, it becomes critical to understand the relationship between system accuracy and clinical outcomes, and the potential benefits of analytical accuracy.

METHODS

We conducted a 30-day in-silico study in type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patients using continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) therapy and a variety of BG meters, using the FDA-approved University of Virginia (UVA)/Padova Type 1 Simulator. We used simulated meter models derived from the published characteristics of 43 commercial meters. By controlling random events in each parallel run, we isolated the differences in clinical performance that are directly associated with the meter characteristics.

RESULTS

A meter's systematic bias has a significant and inverse effect on HbA1c ( P < .01), while also affecting the number of severe hypoglycemia events. On the other hand, error, defined as the fraction of measurements beyond 5% of the true value, is a predictor of severe hypoglycemia events ( P < .01), but in the absence of bias has a nonsignificant effect on average glycemia (HbA1c). Both bias and error have significant effects on total daily insulin (TDI) and the number of necessary glucose measurements per day ( P < .01). Furthermore, these relationships can be accurately modeled using linear regression on meter bias and error.

CONCLUSIONS

Two components of meter accuracy, bias and error, clearly affect clinical outcomes. While error has little effect on HbA1c, it tends to increase episodes of severe hypoglycemia. Meter bias has significant effects on all considered metrics: a positive systemic bias will reduce HbA1c, but increase the number of severe hypoglycemia attacks, TDI use, and number of fingersticks per day.

Artificial intelligence and diabetes technology: A review

Artificial intelligence (AI) is widely discussed in the popular literature and is portrayed as impacting many aspects of human life, both in and out of the workplace. The potential for revolutionizing healthcare is significant because of the availability of increasingly powerful computational platforms and methods, along with increasingly informative sources of patient data, both in and out of clinical settings. This review aims to provide a realistic assessment of the potential for AI in understanding and managing diabetes, accounting for the state of the art in the methodology and medical devices that collect data, process data, and act accordingly. Acknowledging that many conflicting definitions of AI have been put forth, this article attempts to characterize the main elements of the field as they relate to diabetes, identifying the main perspectives and methods that can (i) affect basic understanding of the disease, (ii) affect understanding of risk factors (genetic, clinical, and behavioral) of diabetes development, (iii) improve diagnosis, (iv) improve understanding of the arc of disease (progression and personal/societal impact), and finally (v) improve treatment.

Artificial Pancreas: Clinical Study in Latin America Without Premeal Insulin Boluses

BACKGROUND

Emerging therapies such as closed-loop (CL) glucose control, also known as artificial pancreas (AP) systems, have shown significant improvement in type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) management. However, demanding patient intervention is still required, particularly at meal times. To reduce treatment burden, the automatic regulation of glucose (ARG) algorithm mitigates postprandial glucose excursions without feedforward insulin boluses. This work assesses feasibility of this new strategy in a clinical trial.

METHODS

A 36-hour pilot study was performed on five T1DM subjects to validate the ARG algorithm. Subjects wore a subcutaneous continuous glucose monitor (CGM) and an insulin pump. Insulin delivery was solely commanded by the ARG algorithm, without premeal insulin boluses. This was the first clinical trial in Latin America to validate an AP controller.

RESULTS

For the total 36-hour period, results were as follows: average time of CGM readings in range 70-250 mg/dl: 88.6%, in range 70-180 mg/dl: 74.7%, <70 mg/dl: 5.8%, and <50 mg/dl: 0.8%. Results improved analyzing the final 15-hour period of this trial. In that case, the time spent in range was 70-250 mg/dl: 94.7%, in range 70-180 mg/dl: 82.6%, <70 mg/dl: 4.1%, and <50 mg/dl: 0.2%. During the last night the time spent in range was 70-250 mg/dl: 95%, in range 70-180 mg/dl: 87.7%, <70 mg/dl: 5.0%, and <50 mg/dl: 0.0%. No severe hypoglycemia occurred. No serious adverse events were reported.

CONCLUSIONS

The ARG algorithm was successfully validated in a pilot clinical trial, encouraging further tests with a larger number of patients and in outpatient settings.

The Financial Impact of Inaccurate Blood Glucose Monitoring Systems

OBJECTIVE

An in silico study of type 1 diabetes (T1DM) patients utilized the UVA-PADOVA Type 1 Diabetes Simulator to assess the effect of patient blood glucose monitoring (BGM) system accuracy on clinical outcomes. We applied these findings to assess the financial impact of BGM system inaccuracy.

METHODS

The study included 43 BGM systems previously assessed for accuracy according to ISO 15197:2003 and ISO 15197:2013 criteria. Glycemic responses for the 100 in silico adult T1DM subjects were generated, using each meter. Changes in estimated HbA1c, severe hypoglycemic events, and health care resource utilization were computed for each simulation. The HbA1c Translator modeling approach was used to calculate the financial impact of these changes.

RESULTS

The average cost of inaccuracy associated with the entire group of BGM systems was £155 per patient year (PPY). The average additional cost of BGM systems not meeting the ISO 15197:2003 standard was an estimated £178 PPY more than an average system that fulfills the standard and an estimated £235 PPY more than an average system that appears to meet the ISO 15197:2013 standard.

CONCLUSION

There is a clear relationship between BGM system accuracy and cost, with the highest costs being associated with BGM systems not meeting the ISO 15197:2003 standard. Lower costs are associated with systems meeting the ISO 15197:2013 system accuracy criteria. Using BGM systems that meet the system accuracy criteria of the ISO 15197:2013 standard can help reduce the clinical and financial consequences associated with inaccuracy of BGM devices.

In Silico Modeling of Minimal Effective Insulin Doses Using the UVA/PADOVA Type 1 Diabetes Simulator

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to identify the minimum basal insulin infusion rates and bolus insulin doses that would result in clinically relevant changes in blood glucose levels in the most insulin sensitive subjects with type 1 diabetes.

METHODS

The UVA/PADOVA Type 1 Diabetes Simulator in silico population of children, adolescents, and adults was administered a basal insulin infusion rate to maintain blood glucose concentrations at 120 mg/dL (6.7 mmol/L). Two scenarios were modeled independently after 1 hour of simulated time: (1) basal insulin infusion rates in increments of 0.01 U/h were administered and (2) bolus doses in increments of 0.01 U were injected. Subjects were observed for 4 hours to determine insulin delivery required to change blood glucose by 12.5 mg/dL (0.7 mmol/L) and 25 mg/dL (1.4 mmol/L) in only 5% of the in silico population.

RESULTS

The basal insulin infusion rates required to change blood glucose by 12.5 mg/dL and 25 mg/dL in 5% of children, adolescents, and adults were 0.03, 0.11, and 0.10 U/h and 0.06, 0.21, and 0.19 U/h, respectively. The bolus insulin doses required to change blood glucose by the target amounts in the respective populations were 0.10, 0.28, and 0.30 U and 0.19, 0.55, and 0.60 U.

CONCLUSIONS

In silico modeling suggests that only a very small percentage of individuals with type 1 diabetes, corresponding to children with high insulin sensitivity and low body weight, will exhibit a clinically relevant change in blood glucose with very low basal insulin rate changes or bolus doses.