Medical forecasting

"AI-Powered Forecasting" was recently on the cover of Science, highlighting a new deep learning model for much faster and more accurate weather forecasting. Known as GraphCast, it outperformed the gold-standard system and had an accuracy of 99.7% for tropospheric predictions, the most important forecasting region that is closest to Earth's surface. Better warnings for extreme weather events such as hurricanes and cyclones will help save lives. The parallel in medicine is forecasting specific, actionable, high risk for individuals to prevent diseases or severe acute events. But we don't have a gold standard for predicting health outcomes. That is hopefully about to change.

Randomised controlled trials evaluating artificial intelligence in clinical practice: a scoping review

This scoping review of randomised controlled trials on artificial intelligence (AI) in clinical practice reveals an expanding interest in AI across clinical specialties and locations. The USA and China are leading in the number of trials, with a focus on deep learning systems for medical imaging, particularly in gastroenterology and radiology. A majority of trials (70 [81%] of 86) report positive primary endpoints, primarily related to diagnostic yield or performance; however, the predominance of single-centre trials, little demographic reporting, and varying reports of operational efficiency raise concerns about the generalisability and practicality of these results. Despite the promising outcomes, considering the likelihood of publication bias and the need for more comprehensive research including multicentre trials, diverse outcome measures, and improved reporting standards is crucial. Future AI trials should prioritise patient-relevant outcomes to fully understand AI's true effects and limitations in health care.

Artificial intelligence in surgery

Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly emerging in healthcare, yet applications in surgery remain relatively nascent. Here we review the integration of AI in the field of surgery, centering our discussion on multifaceted improvements in surgical care in the preoperative, intraoperative and postoperative space. The emergence of foundation model architectures, wearable technologies and improving surgical data infrastructures is enabling rapid advances in AI interventions and utility. We discuss how maturing AI methods hold the potential to improve patient outcomes, facilitate surgical education and optimize surgical care. We review the current applications of deep learning approaches and outline a vision for future advances through multimodal foundation models.

Transforming the cardiometabolic disease landscape: Multimodal AI-powered approaches in prevention and management

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has revolutionized various scientific fields, particularly in medicine, where it has enabled the modeling of complex relationships from massive datasets. Initially, AI algorithms focused on improved interpretation of diagnostic studies such as chest X-rays and electrocardiograms in addition to predicting patient outcomes and future disease onset. However, AI has evolved with the introduction of transformer models, allowing analysis of the diverse, multimodal data sources existing in medicine today. Multimodal AI holds great promise in more accurate disease risk assessment and stratification as well as optimizing the key driving factors in cardiometabolic disease: blood pressure, sleep, stress, glucose control, weight, nutrition, and physical activity. In this article we outline the current state of medical AI in cardiometabolic disease, highlighting the potential of multimodal AI to augment personalized prevention and treatment strategies in cardiometabolic disease.

The hospital at home in the USA: current status and future prospects

The annual cost of hospital care services in the US has risen to over $1 trillion despite relatively worse health outcomes compared to similar nations. These trends accentuate a growing need for innovative care delivery models that reduce costs and improve outcomes. HaH-a program that provides patients acute-level hospital care at home-has made significant progress over the past two decades. Technological advancements in remote patient monitoring, wearable sensors, health information technology infrastructure, and multimodal health data processing have contributed to its rise across hospitals. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic brought HaH into the mainstream, especially in the US, with reimbursement waivers that made the model financially acceptable for hospitals and payors. However, HaH continues to face serious challenges to gain widespread adoption. In this review, we evaluate the peer-reviewed evidence and discuss the promises, challenges, and what it would take to tap into the future potential of HaH.

Toward the eradication of medical diagnostic errors

The medical community does not broadcast the problem, but there are many studies that have reinforced a serious issue with diagnostic errors. A recent study concluded: "We estimate that nearly 800,000 Americans die or are permanently disabled by diagnostic errors each year." Diagnostic errors are inaccurate assessments of a patient's root cause of illness, such as missing a heart attack or infection or assigning the wrong diagnosis of pneumonia when the correct one is pulmonary embolism. Despite ever-increasing use of medical imaging and laboratory tests intended to promote diagnostic accuracy, there is nothing to suggest improvement since the report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine in 2015, which provided a conservative estimate that 5% of adults experience a diagnostic error each year, and that most people will experience at least one in their lifetime.

Retinal Optical Coherence Tomography Features Associated With Incident and Prevalent Parkinson Disease

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Cadaveric studies have shown disease-related neurodegeneration and other morphological abnormalities in the retina of individuals with Parkinson disease (PD); however, it remains unclear whether this can be reliably detected with in vivo imaging. We investigated inner retinal anatomy, measured using optical coherence tomography (OCT), in prevalent PD and subsequently assessed the association of these markers with the development of PD using a prospective research cohort.

METHODS

This cross-sectional analysis used data from 2 studies. For the detection of retinal markers in prevalent PD, we used data from AlzEye, a retrospective cohort of 154,830 patients aged 40 years and older attending secondary care ophthalmic hospitals in London, United Kingdom, between 2008 and 2018. For the evaluation of retinal markers in incident PD, we used data from UK Biobank, a prospective population-based cohort where 67,311 volunteers aged 40-69 years were recruited between 2006 and 2010 and underwent retinal imaging. Macular retinal nerve fiber layer (mRNFL), ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer (GCIPL), and inner nuclear layer (INL) thicknesses were extracted from fovea-centered OCT. Linear mixed-effects models were fitted to examine the association between prevalent PD and retinal thicknesses. Hazard ratios for the association between time to PD diagnosis and retinal thicknesses were estimated using frailty models.

RESULTS

Within the AlzEye cohort, there were 700 individuals with prevalent PD and 105,770 controls (mean age 65.5 ± 13.5 years, 51.7% female). Individuals with prevalent PD had thinner GCIPL (-2.12 μm, 95% CI -3.17 to -1.07, p = 8.2 × 10-5) and INL (-0.99 μm, 95% CI -1.52 to -0.47, p = 2.1 × 10-4). The UK Biobank included 50,405 participants (mean age 56.1 ± 8.2 years, 54.7% female), of whom 53 developed PD at a mean of 2,653 ± 851 days. Thinner GCIPL (hazard ratio [HR] 0.62 per SD increase, 95% CI 0.46-0.84, p = 0.002) and thinner INL (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.51-0.96, p = 0.026) were also associated with incident PD.

DISCUSSION

Individuals with PD have reduced thickness of the INL and GCIPL of the retina. Involvement of these layers several years before clinical presentation highlight a potential role for retinal imaging for at-risk stratification of PD.

A foundation model for generalizable disease detection from retinal images

Medical artificial intelligence (AI) offers great potential for recognizing signs of health conditions in retinal images and expediting the diagnosis of eye diseases and systemic disorders1. However, the development of AI models requires substantial annotation and models are usually task-specific with limited generalizability to different clinical applications2. Here, we present RETFound, a foundation model for retinal images that learns generalizable representations from unlabelled retinal images and provides a basis for label-efficient model adaptation in several applications. Specifically, RETFound is trained on 1.6 million unlabelled retinal images by means of self-supervised learning and then adapted to disease detection tasks with explicit labels. We show that adapted RETFound consistently outperforms several comparison models in the diagnosis and prognosis of sight-threatening eye diseases, as well as incident prediction of complex systemic disorders such as heart failure and myocardial infarction with fewer labelled data. RETFound provides a generalizable solution to improve model performance and alleviate the annotation workload of experts to enable broad clinical AI applications from retinal imaging.

As artificial intelligence goes multimodal, medical applications multiply

Machines don't have eyes, but you wouldn't know that if you followed the progression of deep learning models for accurate interpretation of medical images, such as x-rays, computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans, pathology slides, and retinal photos. Over the past several years, there has been a torrent of studies that have consistently demonstrated how powerful "machine eyes" can be, not only compared with medical experts but also for detecting features in medical images that are not readily discernable by humans. For example, a retinal scan is rich with information that people can't see, but machines can, providing a gateway to multiple aspects of human physiology, including blood pressure; glucose control; risk of Parkinson's, Alzheimer's, kidney, and hepatobiliary diseases; and the likelihood of heart attacks and strokes. As a cardiologist, I would not have envisioned that machine interpretation of an electrocardiogram would provide information about the individual's age, sex, anemia, risk of developing diabetes or arrhythmias, heart function and valve disease, kidney, or thyroid conditions. Likewise, applying deep learning to a pathology slide of tumor tissue can also provide insight about the site of origin, driver mutations, structural genomic variants, and prognosis. Although these machine vision capabilities for medical image interpretation may seem impressive, they foreshadow what is potentially far more expansive terrain for artificial intelligence (AI) to transform medicine. The big shift ahead is the ability to transcend narrow, unimodal tasks, confined to images, and broaden machine capabilities to include text and speech, encompassing all input modes, setting the foundation for multimodal AI.

The imperative for regulatory oversight of large language models (or generative AI) in healthcare

The rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) have led to the development of sophisticated large language models (LLMs) such as GPT-4 and Bard. The potential implementation of LLMs in healthcare settings has already garnered considerable attention because of their diverse applications that include facilitating clinical documentation, obtaining insurance pre-authorization, summarizing research papers, or working as a chatbot to answer questions for patients about their specific data and concerns. While offering transformative potential, LLMs warrant a very cautious approach since these models are trained differently from AI-based medical technologies that are regulated already, especially within the critical context of caring for patients. The newest version, GPT-4, that was released in March, 2023, brings the potentials of this technology to support multiple medical tasks; and risks from mishandling results it provides to varying reliability to a new level. Besides being an advanced LLM, it will be able to read texts on images and analyze the context of those images. The regulation of GPT-4 and generative AI in medicine and healthcare without damaging their exciting and transformative potential is a timely and critical challenge to ensure safety, maintain ethical standards, and protect patient privacy. We argue that regulatory oversight should assure medical professionals and patients can use LLMs without causing harm or compromising their data or privacy. This paper summarizes our practical recommendations for what we can expect from regulators to bring this vision to reality.

Foundation models for generalist medical artificial intelligence

The exceptionally rapid development of highly flexible, reusable artificial intelligence (AI) models is likely to usher in newfound capabilities in medicine. We propose a new paradigm for medical AI, which we refer to as generalist medical AI (GMAI). GMAI models will be capable of carrying out a diverse set of tasks using very little or no task-specific labelled data. Built through self-supervision on large, diverse datasets, GMAI will flexibly interpret different combinations of medical modalities, including data from imaging, electronic health records, laboratory results, genomics, graphs or medical text. Models will in turn produce expressive outputs such as free-text explanations, spoken recommendations or image annotations that demonstrate advanced medical reasoning abilities. Here we identify a set of high-impact potential applications for GMAI and lay out specific technical capabilities and training datasets necessary to enable them. We expect that GMAI-enabled applications will challenge current strategies for regulating and validating AI devices for medicine and will shift practices associated with the collection of large medical datasets.

Long COVID: major findings, mechanisms and recommendations

Long COVID is an often debilitating illness that occurs in at least 10% of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections. More than 200 symptoms have been identified with impacts on multiple organ systems. At least 65 million individuals worldwide are estimated to have long COVID, with cases increasing daily. Biomedical research has made substantial progress in identifying various pathophysiological changes and risk factors and in characterizing the illness; further, similarities with other viral-onset illnesses such as myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome and postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome have laid the groundwork for research in the field. In this Review, we explore the current literature and highlight key findings, the overlap with other conditions, the variable onset of symptoms, long COVID in children and the impact of vaccinations. Although these key findings are critical to understanding long COVID, current diagnostic and treatment options are insufficient, and clinical trials must be prioritized that address leading hypotheses. Additionally, to strengthen long COVID research, future studies must account for biases and SARS-CoV-2 testing issues, build on viral-onset research, be inclusive of marginalized populations and meaningfully engage patients throughout the research process.

Self-supervised learning in medicine and healthcare

The development of medical applications of machine learning has required manual annotation of data, often by medical experts. Yet, the availability of large-scale unannotated data provides opportunities for the development of better machine-learning models. In this Review, we highlight self-supervised methods and models for use in medicine and healthcare, and discuss the advantages and limitations of their application to tasks involving electronic health records and datasets of medical images, bioelectrical signals, and sequences and structures of genes and proteins. We also discuss promising applications of self-supervised learning for the development of models leveraging multimodal datasets, and the challenges in collecting unbiased data for their training. Self-supervised learning may accelerate the development of medical artificial intelligence.

Operation Nasal Vaccine-Lightning speed to counter COVID-19

Given the poor ability of intramuscular mRNA COVID-19 vaccines to induce robust immunity in the respiratory mucosa, a push for a nasal vaccine strategy is needed.

Inter-individual variation in objective measure of reactogenicity following COVID-19 vaccination via smartwatches and fitness bands

The ability to identify who does or does not experience the intended immune response following vaccination could be of great value in not only managing the global trajectory of COVID-19 but also helping guide future vaccine development. Vaccine reactogenicity can potentially lead to detectable physiologic changes, thus we postulated that we could detect an individual's initial physiologic response to a vaccine by tracking changes relative to their pre-vaccine baseline using consumer wearable devices. We explored this possibility using a smartphone app-based research platform that enabled volunteers (39,701 individuals) to share their smartwatch data, as well as self-report, when appropriate, any symptoms, COVID-19 test results, and vaccination information. Of 7728 individuals who reported at least one vaccination dose, 7298 received an mRNA vaccine, and 5674 provided adequate data from the peri-vaccine period for analysis. We found that in most individuals, resting heart rate (RHR) increased with respect to their individual baseline after vaccination, peaked on day 2, and returned to normal by day 6. This increase in RHR was greater than one standard deviation above individuals' normal daily pattern in 47% of participants after their second vaccine dose. Consistent with other reports of subjective reactogenicity following vaccination, we measured a significantly stronger effect after the second dose relative to the first, except those who previously tested positive to COVID-19, and a more pronounced increase for individuals who received the Moderna vaccine. Females, after the first dose only, and those aged <40 years, also experienced a greater objective response after adjusting for possible confounding factors. These early findings show that it is possible to detect subtle, but important changes from an individual's normal as objective evidence of reactogenicity, which, with further work, could prove useful as a surrogate for vaccine-induced immune response.

6 month serologic response to the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine among healthcare workers

AIM

Healthcare workers (HCWs) were among the first group of people vaccinated with the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine (BNT162b2). Characterization of the kinetics of antibody response to vaccination is important to devise future vaccination strategies. To better characterize the antibody response to BNT162b2, we analyzed the kinetics of IgG and IgM antibody response to 5 different SARS-CoV-2 epitopes over a period of 6 months.

METHODS AND RESULTS

An observational single-centered study was conducted to evaluate the temporal dynamics of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies following immunization with two doses of BNT162b2. Anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were assessed using the Maverick SARS-CoV-2 multi-antigen panel (Genalyte Inc.). Healthcare workers aged ≥18 receiving BNT162b2 vaccination who self-reported no prior symptoms of COVID-19 nor prior COVID-19 PCR test positivity, were included in this study. HCWs developed an IgG antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 Spike S1, Spike S1 receptor binding domain (RBD), Spike S1S2 and Spike S2 after vaccination. IgG response was observed at two weeks following immunization in most participant samples and continued to increase at week 4, but subsequently decreased significantly starting at 3 months and up to 6 months. In contrast, IgM response to respective epitopes was minimal.

CONCLUSION

Multiplex results demonstrate that, contrary to natural infection, immunization with BNT162b2 produces minimal anti-Spike IgM response. Polyclonal IgG response to Spike declined at 3 months and continued to do so up to 6 months.

Impact of polygenic risk communication: an observational mobile application-based coronary artery disease study

We developed a smartphone application, MyGeneRank, to conduct a prospective observational cohort study (NCT03277365) involving the automated generation, communication, and electronic capture of response to a polygenic risk score (PRS) for coronary artery disease (CAD). Adults with a smartphone and an existing 23andMe genetic profiling self-referred to the study. We evaluated self-reported actions taken in response to personal CAD PRS information, with special interest in the initiation of lipid-lowering therapy. 19% (721/3,800) of participants provided complete responses for baseline and follow-up use of lipid-lowering therapy. 20% (n = 19/95) of high CAD PRS vs 7.9% (n = 8/101) of low CAD PRS participants initiated lipid-lowering therapy at follow-up (p-value = 0.002). Both the initiation of statin and non-statin lipid-lowering therapy was associated with degree of CAD PRS: 15.2% (n = 14/92) vs 6.0% (n = 6/100) for statins (p-value = 0.018) and 6.8% (n = 8/118) vs 1.6% (n = 2/123) for non-statins (p-value = 0.022) in high vs low CAD PRS, respectively. High CAD PRS was also associated with earlier initiation of lipid lowering therapy (average age of 52 vs 65 years in high vs low CAD PRS respectively, p-value = 0.007). Overall, degree of CAD PRS was associated with use of any lipid-lowering therapy at follow-up: 42.4% (n = 56/132) vs 28.5% (n = 37/130) (p-value = 0.009). We find that digital communication of personal CAD PRS information is associated with increased and earlier lipid-lowering initiation in individuals of high CAD PRS. Loss to follow-up is the primary limitation of this study. Alternative communication routes, and long-term studies with EHR-based outcomes are needed to understand the generalizability and durability of this finding.

AI in health and medicine

Artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to broadly reshape medicine, potentially improving the experiences of both clinicians and patients. We discuss key findings from a 2-year weekly effort to track and share key developments in medical AI. We cover prospective studies and advances in medical image analysis, which have reduced the gap between research and deployment. We also address several promising avenues for novel medical AI research, including non-image data sources, unconventional problem formulations and human-AI collaboration. Finally, we consider serious technical and ethical challenges in issues spanning from data scarcity to racial bias. As these challenges are addressed, AI's potential may be realized, making healthcare more accurate, efficient and accessible for patients worldwide.

COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infections

[Figure: see text].

Passive detection of COVID-19 with wearable sensors and explainable machine learning algorithms

Individual smartwatch or fitness band sensor data in the setting of COVID-19 has shown promise to identify symptomatic and pre-symptomatic infection or the need for hospitalization, correlations between peripheral temperature and self-reported fever, and an association between changes in heart-rate-variability and infection. In our study, a total of 38,911 individuals (61% female, 15% over 65) have been enrolled between March 25, 2020 and April 3, 2021, with 1118 reported testing positive and 7032 negative for COVID-19 by nasopharyngeal PCR swab test. We propose an explainable gradient boosting prediction model based on decision trees for the detection of COVID-19 infection that can adapt to the absence of self-reported symptoms and to the available sensor data, and that can explain the importance of each feature and the post-test-behavior for the individuals. We tested it in a cohort of symptomatic individuals who exhibited an AUC of 0.83 [0.81-0.85], or AUC = 0.78 [0.75-0.80] when considering only data before the test date, outperforming state-of-the-art algorithm in these conditions. The analysis of all individuals (including asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic) when self-reported symptoms were excluded provided an AUC of 0.78 [0.76-0.79], or AUC of 0.70 [0.69-0.72] when considering only data before the test date. Extending the use of predictive algorithms for detection of COVID-19 infection based only on passively monitored data from any device, we showed that it is possible to scale up this platform and apply the algorithm in other settings where self-reported symptoms can not be collected.

Three year clinical outcomes in a nationwide, observational, siteless clinical trial of atrial fibrillation screening-mHealth Screening to Prevent Strokes (mSToPS)

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common, often without symptoms, and is an independent risk factor for mortality, stroke and heart failure. It is unknown if screening asymptomatic individuals for AF can improve clinical outcomes.

Methods

mSToPS was a pragmatic, direct-to-participant trial that randomized individuals from a single US-wide health plan to either immediate or delayed screening using a continuous-recording ECG patch to be worn for two weeks and 2 occasions, ~3 months apart, to potentially detect undiagnosed AF. The 3-year outcomes component of the trial was designed to compare clinical outcomes in the combined cohort of 1718 individuals who underwent monitoring and 3371 matched observational controls. The prespecified primary outcome was the time to first event of the combined endpoint of death, stroke, systemic embolism, or myocardial infarction among individuals with a new AF diagnosis, which was hypothesized to be the same in the two cohorts but was not realized.

Results

Over the 3 years following the initiation of screening (mean follow-up 29 months), AF was newly diagnosed in 11.4% (n = 196) of screened participants versus 7.7% (n = 261) of observational controls (p<0.01). Among the screened cohort with incident AF, one-third were diagnosed through screening. For all individuals whose AF was first diagnosed clinically, a clinical event was common in the 4 weeks surrounding that diagnosis: 6.6% experienced a stroke,10.2% were newly diagnosed with heart failure, 9.2% had a myocardial infarction, and 1.5% systemic emboli. Cumulatively, 42.9% were hospitalized. For those diagnosed via screening, none experienced a stroke, myocardial infarction or systemic emboli in the period surrounding their AF diagnosis, and only 1 person (2.3%) had a new diagnosis of heart failure. Incidence rate of the prespecified combined primary endpoint was 3.6 per 100 person-years among the actively monitored cohort and 4.5 per 100 person-years in the observational controls.

Conclusions

At 3 years, screening for AF was associated with a lower rate of clinical events and improved outcomes relative to a matched cohort, although the influence of earlier diagnosis of AF via screening on this finding is unclear. These observational data, including the high event rate surrounding a new clinical diagnosis of AF, support the need for randomized trials to determine whether screening for AF will yield a meaningful protection from strokes and other clinical events.

Trail registration

The mHealth Screening To Prevent Strokes (mSToPS) Trial is registered on ClinicalTrials.gov with the identifier NCT02506244.

Assessment of Prolonged Physiological and Behavioral Changes Associated With COVID-19 Infection

This cohort study examines the duration and variation of recovery among COVID-19–positive verses COVID-19–negative individuals.

The Physiologic Response to COVID-19 Vaccination

Two mRNA vaccines and one adenovirus-based vaccine against SARS CoV-2 are currently being distributed at scale in the United States. Objective evidence of a specific individual's physiologic response to that vaccine are not routinely tracked but may offer insights into the acute immune response and personal and/or vaccine characteristics associated with that. We explored this possibility using a smartphone app-based research platform developed early in the pandemic that enabled volunteers (38,911 individuals between 25 March 2020 and 4 April 2021) to share their smartwatch and activity tracker data, as well as self-report, when appropriate, any symptoms, COVID-19 test results and vaccination dates and type. Of 4,110 individuals who reported at least one mRNA vaccination dose, 3,312 provided adequate resting heart rate data from the peri-vaccine period for analysis. We found changes in resting heart rate with respect to an individual baseline increased the days after vaccination, peaked on day 2, and returned to normal on day 6, with a much stronger effect after second dose with respect to first dose (average changes 1.6 versus 0.5 beats per minute). The changes were more pronounced for individuals who received the Moderna vaccine (on both doses), those who previously tested positive to COVID-19 (on dose 1), and for individuals aged <40 years, after adjusting for possible confounding factors. Taking advantage of continuous passive data from personal sensors could potentially enable the identification of a digital fingerprint of inflammation, which might prove useful as a surrogate for vaccine-induced immune response.

The Proportion of SARS-CoV-2 Infections That Are Asymptomatic : A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Asymptomatic infection seems to be a notable feature of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the pathogen that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but the prevalence is uncertain.

PURPOSE

To estimate the proportion of persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 who never develop symptoms.

DATA SOURCES

Searches of Google News, Google Scholar, medRxiv, and PubMed using the keywords antibodies, asymptomatic, coronavirus, COVID-19, PCR, seroprevalence, and SARS-CoV-2.

STUDY SELECTION

Observational, descriptive studies and reports of mass screening for SARS-CoV-2 that were either cross-sectional or longitudinal in design; were published through 17 November 2020; and involved SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid or antibody testing of a target population, regardless of current symptomatic status, over a defined period.

DATA EXTRACTION

The authors collaboratively extracted data on the study design, type of testing performed, number of participants, criteria for determining symptomatic status, testing results, and setting.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Sixty-one eligible studies and reports were identified, of which 43 used polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing of nasopharyngeal swabs to detect current SARS-CoV-2 infection and 18 used antibody testing to detect current or prior infection. In the 14 studies with longitudinal data that reported information on the evolution of symptomatic status, nearly three quarters of persons who tested positive but had no symptoms at the time of testing remained asymptomatic. The highest-quality evidence comes from nationwide, representative serosurveys of England (n = 365 104) and Spain (n = 61 075), which suggest that at least one third of SARS-CoV-2 infections are asymptomatic.

LIMITATION

For PCR-based studies, data are limited to distinguish presymptomatic from asymptomatic infection. Heterogeneity precluded formal quantitative syntheses.

CONCLUSION

Available data suggest that at least one third of SARS-CoV-2 infections are asymptomatic. Longitudinal studies suggest that nearly three quarters of persons who receive a positive PCR test result but have no symptoms at the time of testing will remain asymptomatic. Control strategies for COVID-19 should be altered, taking into account the prevalence and transmission risk of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institutes of Health.

Messenger RNA vaccines against SARS-CoV-2

The first two vaccines proven to be effective for inhibiting COVID-19 illness were both mRNA, achieving 95% efficacy (and safety) among 74,000 participants (half receiving placebo) after intramuscular delivery of two shots, 3-4 weeks apart. To view this Bench to Bedside, open or download the PDF.