|
1
|
Bailly DK, Reeder RW, Winder M, Barbaro RP, Pollack MM, Moler FW, Meert KL, Berg RA, Carcillo J, Zuppa AF, Newth C, Berger J, Bell MJ, Dean JM, Nicholson C, Garcia-Filion P, Wessel D, Heidemann S, Doctor A, Harrison R, Bratton SL, Dalton H. Development of the Pediatric Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Prediction Model for Risk-Adjusting Mortality. Pediatr Crit Care Med 2019; 20:426-434. [PMID: 30664590 PMCID: PMC6502677 DOI: 10.1097/pcc.0000000000001882] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To develop a prognostic model for predicting mortality at time of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation initiation for children which is important for determining center-specific risk-adjusted outcomes. DESIGN Multivariable logistic regression using a large national cohort of pediatric extracorporeal membrane oxygenation patients. SETTING The ICUs of the eight tertiary care children's hospitals of the Collaborative Pediatric Critical Care Research Network. PATIENTS Five-hundred fourteen children (< 19 yr old), enrolled with an initial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation run for any indication between January 2012 and September 2014. INTERVENTIONS None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS A total of 514 first extracorporeal membrane oxygenation runs were analyzed with an overall mortality of 45% (n = 232). Weighted logistic regression was used for model selection and internal validation was performed using cross validation. The variables included in the Pediatric Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Prediction model were age (pre-term neonate, full-term neonate, infant, child, and adolescent), indication for extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation, cardiac, or respiratory), meconium aspiration, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, documented blood stream infection, arterial blood pH, partial thromboplastin time, and international normalized ratio. The highest risk of mortality was associated with the presence of a documented blood stream infection (odds ratio, 5.26; CI, 1.90-14.57) followed by extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (odds ratio, 4.36; CI, 2.23-8.51). The C-statistic was 0.75 (95% CI, 0.70-0.80). CONCLUSIONS The Pediatric Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Prediction model represents a model for predicting in-hospital mortality among children receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support for any indication. Consequently, it holds promise as the first comprehensive pediatric extracorporeal membrane oxygenation risk stratification model which is important for benchmarking extracorporeal membrane oxygenation outcomes across many centers.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- David K. Bailly
- Department of Pediatrics Division of Pediatric Critical
Care, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT
| | - Ron W. Reeder
- Department of Pediatrics Division of Pediatric Critical
Care, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT
| | - Melissa Winder
- Department of Pediatric Critical Care, Primary
Children’s Hospital, Salt Lake City, UT
| | - Ryan P. Barbaro
- Department of Pediatrics and Communicable Diseases,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
| | - Murray M. Pollack
- Department of Pediatrics, Children’s National
Medical Center, Washington, DC
| | - Frank W. Moler
- Department of Pediatrics and Communicable Diseases,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
| | - Kathleen L. Meert
- Department of Pediatrics, Children’s Hospital of
Michigan, Detroit, MI
| | - Robert A. Berg
- Department of Anesthesia and Critical Care,
Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA
| | - Joseph Carcillo
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Children’s
Hospital of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA
| | - Athena F. Zuppa
- Department of Anesthesia and Critical Care,
Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA
| | - Christopher Newth
- Department of Anesthesiology and Critical Care Medicine,
Children’s Hospital Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA
| | - John Berger
- Department of Pediatrics, Children’s National
Medical Center, Washington, DC
| | - Michael J. Bell
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Children’s
Hospital of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA
| | - J. Michael Dean
- Department of Pediatrics Division of Pediatric Critical
Care, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT
| | - Carol Nicholson
- Trauma and Critical Illness Branch, National Institute of
Child Health and Human Development NICHD, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda,
MD
| | | | - David Wessel
- Department of Pediatrics, Children’s National
Medical Center, Washington, DC
| | - Sabrina Heidemann
- Department of Pediatrics, Children’s Hospital of
Michigan, Detroit, MI
| | - Allan Doctor
- Departments of Pediatrics and Biochemistry, Washington
University, St. Louis, MO
| | - Rick Harrison
- Department of Pediatrics, Mattel Children’s
Hospital UCLA, Los Angeles, CA
| | - Susan L. Bratton
- Department of Pediatrics Division of Pediatric Critical
Care, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT
| | - Heidi Dalton
- Department of Pediatrics, Inova Fairfax Hospital, Fall
Church, VA
| | | |
Collapse
|