Predictive modelling for the growth kinetics of Pseudomonas spp. on button mushroom (Agaricus bisporus) under isothermal and non-isothermal conditions

Baranyi model was fitted to experimental growth data of Pseudomonas spp. on the button mushrooms (Agaricus bisporus) stored at different isothermal conditions (4, 12, 20 and 28 °C), and the kinetic growth parameters of Pseudomonas spp. on the button mushrooms were obtained. The goodness of fit of the Baranyi model was evaluated by considering the root mean squared error (RMSE) and the adjusted coefficient of determination (adjusted-R²). The Baranyi model gave RMSE values lower than 0.193 and adjusted-R² values higher than 0.975 for all isothermal storage temperatures. The maximum specific growth rate (µ_max) was described as a function of temperature using secondary models namely, Ratkowsky and Arrhenius models. The Ratkowsky model described the temperature dependence of µ_max better than the Arrhenius model. Therefore, the differential form of the Baranyi model was merged with the Ratkowsky model, and solved numerically using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method to predict the concentration of Pseudomonas spp. populations on button mushrooms under non-isothermal conditions in which they are frequently subjected to during storage, delivery and retail marketing. The validation performance of the dynamic model used was assessed by considering bias (B_f) and accuracy (A_f) factors which were found to be 0.998 and 1.016, respectively. The dynamic model developed also exhibited quite small mean deviation (MD) and mean absolute deviation (MAD) values being -0.013 and 0.126 log CFU/g, respectively. The modelling approach used in this work could be an alternative to traditional enumeration techniques to determine the number of Pseudomonas spp. on mushrooms as a function of temperature and time.

Development and validation of a one-step modelling approach for the determination of chicken meat shelf-life based on the growth kinetics of Pseudomonas spp

The main objective of the present study was to investigate the effect of storage temperature on aerobically stored chicken meat spoilage using the two-step and one-step modelling approaches involving different primary models namely the modified Gompertz, logistic, Baranyi and Huang models. For this purpose, growth data points of Pseudomonas spp. were collected from published studies conducted in aerobically stored chicken meat product. Temperature-dependent kinetic parameters (maximum specific growth rate 'µ_max' and lag phase duration 'λ') were described as a function of storage temperature through the Ratkowsky model based on the different primary models. Then, the fitting capability of both modelling approaches was compared taking into account root mean square error, adjusted coefficient of determination (adjusted-R²) and corrected Akaike information criterion. The one-step modelling approach showed considerably improved fitting capability regardless of the used primary model. Finally, models developed from the one-step modelling approach were validated for the maximum growth rate data extracted from independent published literature using the statistical indexes Bias (B_f) and Accuracy (A_f) factors. The best prediction capability was obtained for the Baranyi model with B_f and A_f being very close to 1. The shelf-life of chicken meat as a function of storage temperature was predicted using both modelling approaches for the Baranyi model.

Modeling the Growth of Six Listeria monocytogenes Strains in Smoked Salmon Pâté

In this study, the growth of six L. monocytogenes strains isolated from different fish products was quantified and modeled in smoked salmon pâté at a temperature ranging from 2 to 20 °C. The experimental data obtained for each strain was fitted to the primary growth model of Baranyi and Roberts to estimate the following kinetic parameters: lag phase (λ), maximum specific growth rate (μ_max), and maximum cell density (N_max). Then, the effect of storage temperature on the obtained μ_max values was modeled by the Ratkowsky secondary model. In general, the six L. monocytogenes strains showed rapid growth in salmon pâté at all storage temperatures, with a relatively short lag phase λ, even at 2 °C. The growth behavior among the tested strains was similar at the same storage temperature, although significant differences were found for the parameters λ and μ_max. Besides, the growth variations among the strains did not follow a regular pattern. The estimated secondary model parameter T_min ranged from -4.25 to -3.19 °C. This study provides accurate predictive models for the growth of L. monocytogenes in fish pâtés that can be used in shelf life and microbial risk assessment studies. In addition, the models generated in this work can be implemented in predictive modeling tools and repositories that can be reliably and easily used by the fish industry and end-users to establish measures aimed at controlling the growth of L. monocytogenes in fish-based pâtés.

Prediction of Pseudomonas spp. Population in Food Products and Culture Media Using Machine Learning-Based Regression Methods

Machine learning approaches are alternative modelling techniques to traditional modelling equations used in predictive food microbiology and utilise algorithms to analyse large datasets that contain information about microbial growth or survival in various food matrices. These approaches leverage the power of algorithms to extract insights from the data and make predictions regarding the behaviour of microorganisms in different food environments. The objective of this study was to apply various machine learning-based regression methods, including support vector regression (SVR), Gaussian process regression (GPR), decision tree regression (DTR), and random forest regression (RFR), to estimate bacterial populations. In order to achieve this, a total of 5618 data points for Pseudomonas spp. present in food products (beef, pork, and poultry) and culture media were gathered from the ComBase database. The machine learning algorithms were applied to predict the growth or survival behaviour of Pseudomonas spp. in food products and culture media by considering predictor variables such as temperature, salt concentration, water activity, and acidity. The suitability of the algorithms was assessed using statistical measures such as coefficient of determination (R²), root mean square error (RMSE), bias factor (Bf), and accuracy (A_f). Each of the regression algorithms showed appropriate estimation capabilities with R² ranging from 0.886 to 0.913, RMSE from 0.724 to 0.899, B_f from 1.012 to 1.020, and A_f from 1.086 to 1.101 for each food product and culture medium. Since the predictive capability of RFR was the best among the algorithms, externally collected data from the literature were used for RFR. The external validation process showed statistical indices of B_f ranging from 0.951 to 1.040 and A_f ranging from 1.091 to 1.130, indicating that RFR can be used for predicting the survival and growth of microorganisms in food products. Therefore, machine learning approaches can be considered as an alternative to conventional modelling methods in predictive microbiology. However, it is important to highlight that the prediction power of the machine learning regression method directly depends on the dataset size, and it requires a large dataset to be employed for modelling. Therefore, the modelling work of this study can only be used for the prediction of Pseudomonas spp. in specific food products (beef, pork, and poultry) and culture medium with certain conditions where a large dataset is available.

Development of prediction software to describe total mesophilic bacteria in spinach using a machine learning-based regression approach

The purpose of this study was to create a tool for predicting the growth of total mesophilic bacteria in spinach using machine learning-based regression models such as support vector regression, decision tree regression, and Gaussian process regression. The performance of these models was compared to traditionally used models (modified Gompertz, Baranyi, and Huang models) using statistical indices like the coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE). The results showed that the machine learning-based regression models provided more accurate predictions with an R2 of at least 0.960 and an RMSE of at most 0.154, indicating that they can be used as an alternative to traditional approaches for predictive total mesophilic. Therefore, the developed software in this work has a significant potential to be used as an alternative simulation method to traditionally used approach in the predictive food microbiology field.

A new expanded modelling approach for investigating the bioprotective capacity of Latilactobacillus sakei CTC494 against Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat fish products

Understanding the role of food-related factors on the efficacy of protective cultures is essential to attain optimal results for developing biopreservation-based strategies. The aim of this work was to assess and model growth of Latilactobacillus sakei CTC494 and Listeria monocytogenes CTC1034, and their interaction, in two different ready-to-eat fish products (i.e., surimi-based product and tuna pâté) at 2 and 12 °C. The existing expanded Jameson-effect and a new expanded Jameson-effect model proposed in this study were evaluated to quantitatively describe the effect of microbial interaction. The inhibiting effect of the selected lactic acid bacteria strain on the pathogen growth was product dependent. In surimi product, a reduction of lag time of both strains was observed when growing in coculture at 2 °C, followed by the inhibition of the pathogen when the bioprotective L. sakei CTC494 reached the maximum population density, suggesting a mutualism-antagonism continuum phenomenon between populations. In tuna pâté, L. sakei CTC494 exerted a strong inhibition of L. monocytogenes at 2 °C (<0.5 log increase) and limited the growth at 12 °C (<2 log increase). The goodness-of-fit indexes indicated that the new expanded Jameson-effect model performed better and appropriately described the different competition patterns observed in the tested fish products. The proposed expanded competition model allowed for description of not only antagonistic but also mutualism-based interactions based on their influence on lag time.

Comparison of modelling approaches for the prediction of kinetic growth parameters of Pseudomonas spp. in oyster mushroom (Pleurotus ostreatus)

In predictive microbiology, primary and secondary models can be used to predict microbial growth, usually in a two-step modelling approach. The inverse dynamic modelling approach is an alternative method to direct modelling methods, in which the primary and secondary models are fitted simultaneously from non-isothermal data, minimising experimental effort and costs. Thus, the main aim of the present study was to compare the prediction capabilities of the mathematical modelling approaches used for calculating growth kinetics of microorganisms in predictive food microbiology field. For this purpose, the bacterial growth data of Pseudomonas spp. in oyster mushroom (Pleurotus ostreatus) subjected to isothermal and non-isothermal storage temperatures were collected from previously published growth curves. Temperature-dependent kinetic growth parameters (maximum specific growth rate 'µmax' and lag phase duration 'λ') were described as a function of storage temperature using the direct two-step, direct one-step and inverse dynamic modelling approach based on Baranyi and Huang models. The fitting capability of the modelling approaches was separately compared, and the one-step modelling approach for the direct methods provided better goodness of fit results regardless of used primary models, which leads the Huang model with being RMSE = 0.226 and R2adj = 0.949 became best for direct methods. Like seen in direct methods, the Huang model gave better goodness of fit results than Baranyi model for inverse method. Results revealed there was no significant difference (p > 0.05) between the growth kinetic parameters obtained from direct one-step modelling approach and inverse modelling approaches based on the Huang model. Satisfactorily statistical indexes show that the inverse dynamic modelling approach can be reliably used as an alternative way of describing the growth behaviour of Pseudomonas spp. in oyster mushroom in a fast and minimum labour effort.

Imidazolium-based ionic liquids disrupt saccharomyces cerevisiae cell membrane integrity

Ionic liquids (ILs) are interesting chemical compounds that have a wide range of industrial and scientific applications. They have extraordinary properties, such as the tunability of many of their physical properties and, accordingly, their activities; and the ease of synthesis methods. Hence, they became important building blocks in catalysis, extraction, electrochemistry, analytics, biotechnology, etc. This study determined antifungal activities of various imidazolium-based ionic liquids against yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae via minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) estimation method. Increasing the length of the alkyl group attached to the imidazolium cation, enhanced the antifungal activity of the ILs, as well as their ability of the disruption of the cell membrane integrity. FTIR studies performed on the S. cerevisiae cells treated with the ILs revealed alterations in the biochemical composition of these cells. Interestingly, the alterations in fatty acid content occurred in parallel with the increase in the activity of the molecules upon the increase in the length of the attached alkyl group. This trend was confirmed by statistical analysis and machine learning methodology. The classification of antifungal activities based on FTIR spectra of S. cerevisiae cells yielded a prediction accuracy of 83%, indicating the pharmacy and medicine industries could benefit from machine learning methodology. Furthermore, synthesized ionic compounds exhibit significant potential for pharmaceutical and medical applications.

The Use of Predictive Microbiology for the Prediction of the Shelf Life of Food Products

Microbial shelf life refers to the duration of time during which a food product remains safe for consumption in terms of its microbiological quality. Predictive microbiology is a field of science that focuses on using mathematical models and computational techniques to predict the growth, survival, and behaviour of microorganisms in food and other environments. This approach allows researchers, food producers, and regulatory bodies to assess the potential risks associated with microbial contamination and spoilage, enabling informed decisions to be made regarding food safety, quality, and shelf life. Two-step and one-step modelling approaches are modelling techniques with primary and secondary models being used, while the machine learning approach does not require using primary and secondary models for describing the quantitative behaviour of microorganisms, leading to the spoilage of food products. This comprehensive review delves into the various modelling techniques that have found applications in predictive food microbiology for estimating the shelf life of food products. By examining the strengths, limitations, and implications of the different approaches, this review provides an invaluable resource for researchers and practitioners seeking to enhance the accuracy and reliability of microbial shelf life predictions. Ultimately, a deeper understanding of these techniques promises to advance the domain of predictive food microbiology, fostering improved food safety practices, reduced waste, and heightened consumer confidence.

Machine Learning-Based Software for Predicting Pseudomonas spp. Growth Dynamics in Culture Media

In predictive microbiology, both primary and secondary models are widely used to estimate microbial growth, often applied through two-step or one-step modelling approaches. This study focused on developing a tool to predict the growth of Pseudomonas spp., a prominent bacterial genus in food spoilage, by applying machine learning regression models, including Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest Regression (RFR) and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). The key environmental factors-temperature, water activity, and pH-served as predictor variables to model the growth of Pseudomonas spp. in culture media. To assess model performance, these machine learning approaches were compared with traditional models, namely the Gompertz, Logistic, Baranyi, and Huang models, using statistical indicators such as the adjusted coefficient of determination (R2adj) and root mean square error (RMSE). Machine learning models provided superior accuracy over traditional approaches, with R2adj values from 0.834 to 0.959 and RMSE values between 0.005 and 0.010, showcasing their ability to handle complex growth patterns more effectively. GPR emerged as the most accurate model for both training and testing datasets. In external validation, additional statistical indices (bias factor, Bf: 0.998 to 1.047; accuracy factor, Af: 1.100 to 1.167) further supported GPR as a reliable alternative for microbial growth prediction. This machine learning-driven approach bypasses the need for the secondary modelling step required in traditional methods, highlighting its potential as a robust tool in predictive microbiology.

The Development of Machine Learning-Assisted Software for Predicting the Interaction Behaviours of Lactic Acid Bacteria and Listeria monocytogenes

Biopreservation technology has emerged as a promising approach to enhance food safety and extend shelf life by leveraging the antimicrobial properties of beneficial microorganisms. This study aims to develop precise predictive models to characterize the growth and interaction dynamics of lactic acid bacteria (LAB) and Listeria monocytogenes, which serve as bioprotective agents in food systems. Using both traditional and machine learning modelling approaches, we analyzed data from previously published growth curves in broth (BHI) and milk under isothermal conditions (4, 10, and 30 °C). The models evaluated mono-culture conditions for L. monocytogenes and LAB, as well as their competitive interactions in co-culture scenarios. The modified Gompertz model demonstrated the best performance for mono-culture simulations, while a combination of the modified Gompertz and Lotka-Volterra models effectively described co-culture interactions, achieving high adjusted R-squared values (adjusted R2 = 0.978 and 0.962) and low root mean square errors (RMSE = 0.324 and 0.507) for BHI and milk, respectively. Machine learning approaches further validated these findings, with improved statistical indices (adjusted R2 = 0.988 and 0.966, RMSE = 0.242 and 0.475 for BHI and milk, respectively), suggesting their potential as robust alternatives to traditional methods. The integration of machine learning-assisted software developed in this work into predictive microbiology demonstrates significant advancements by bypassing the conventional primary and secondary modelling steps, enabling a streamlined, precise characterization of microbial interactions in food products.