Interlaboratory comparison of the intensity of drinking water odor and taste by two-way ordinal analysis of variation without replication

A case study of ordinal data from human organoleptic examination (sensory analysis) of drinking water obtained in an interlaboratory comparison of 49 ecological laboratories is described. The recently developed two-way ordinal analysis of variation (ORDANOVA) is applied for the first time for the treatment of responses on the intensity of chlorine and sulfurous odor of water at 20 and 60 °C, which is classified into the six categories from 'imperceptible' to 'very strong'. The one-way ORDANOVA is used for the analysis of the 'salty taste' intensity of the water. A decomposition of the total variation of the ordinal data and simulation of the multinomial distribution of the data-relative frequencies in different categories allowed the determination of the statistical significance of the difference between laboratories in classifying chlorine or sulfurous odor intensity by categories, while the effect of temperature was not significant. No statistical difference was found between laboratories on salty taste intensity. The capabilities of experts to identify different categories of the intensity of the odor and taste are also evaluated. A comparison of the results obtained with ORDANOVA and ANOVA showed that ORDANOVA is a more useful and reliable tool for understanding categorical data such as the intensity of drinking water odor and taste.

IUPAC/CITAC Guide: Evaluation of risks of false decisions in conformity assessment of a multicomponent material or object due to measurement uncertainty (IUPAC Technical Report)

Risks of a false decision on conformity of the chemical composition of a multicomponent material or object due to measurement uncertainty are defined using the Bayesian approach. Even if the conformity assessment for each particular component of a material is successful, the total probability of a false decision (total consumer’s risk or producer’s risk) concerning the material as a whole might still be significant. This is related to the specific batch, lot, sample, environmental compartment, or other item of material or object (specific consumer’s and producer’s risks), or to a population of these items (global consumer’s and producer’s risks). A model of the total probability of such false decisions for cases of independent actual (‘true’) concentrations or contents of the components and the corresponding measurement results is formulated based on the law of total probability. It is shown that the total risk can be evaluated as a combination of the particular risks in the conformity assessment of components of the item. For a more complicated task, i.e. for a larger number of components under control, the total risk is greater. When the actual values of the components’ concentrations or contents, as well as the measurement results, are correlated, they are modelled by multivariate distributions. Then, a total global risk of a false decision on the material conformity is evaluated by the calculation of integrals of corresponding joint probability density function. A total specific risk can be evaluated as the joint posterior cumulative function of actual property values of a specific item lying outside the multivariate specification (tolerance) domain when the vector of measured values obtained for the item is inside this domain. The effect of correlation on the risk is not easily predictable. Examples of the evaluation of risks are provided for conformity assessment of denatured alcohols, total suspended particulate matter in ambient air, a cold/flu medication, and a PtRh alloy.

Risk of a false decision on conformity of an environmental compartment due to measurement uncertainty of concentrations of two or more pollutants

Risks of false decisions in conformity assessment of an environmental compartment due to measurement uncertainty of concentrations of two or more pollutants are discussed. Even if the assessment of conformity for each pollutant in the compartment is successful, the total probability of a false decision concerning the compartment as a whole might still be significant. A model of the total probability of a false decision, formulated on the base of the law of total probability, is used, for example, for a study of test results of total suspended particulate matter (TSPM) concentration in ambient air near to three independent stone quarries located in Israel, as the sources of the air pollution. Total probabilities of underestimation of TSPM concentration (total risk of the inhabitants) and overestimation (total risk of the stone producers) are evaluated as a combination of the particular risks of air conformity assessment concerning TSPM concentration for each quarry. These probabilities characterize conformity of the TSPM concentration in the region of the quarries as a whole. Core code developed in R programming environment for the calculations is provided.

Risk of false decision on conformity of a multicomponent material when test results of the components' content are correlated

The probability of a false decision on conformity of a multicomponent material due to measurement uncertainty is discussed when test results are correlated. Specification limits of the components' content of such a material generate a multivariate specification interval/domain. When true values of components' content and corresponding test results are modelled by multivariate distributions (e.g. by multivariate normal distributions), a total global risk of a false decision on the material conformity can be evaluated based on calculation of integrals of their joint probability density function. No transformation of the raw data is required for that. A total specific risk can be evaluated as the joint posterior cumulative function of true values of a specific batch or lot lying outside the multivariate specification domain, when the vector of test results, obtained for the lot, is inside this domain. It was shown, using a case study of four components under control in a drug, that the correlation influence on the risk value is not easily predictable. To assess this influence, the evaluated total risk values were compared with those calculated for independent test results and also with those assuming much stronger correlation than that observed. While the observed statistically significant correlation did not lead to a visible difference in the total risk values in comparison to the independent test results, the stronger correlation among the variables caused either the total risk decreasing or its increasing, depending on the actual values of the test results.