Months-long seismicity transients preceding the 2023 MW 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake, Türkiye

Short term prediction of earthquake magnitude, time, and location is currently not possible. In some cases, however, documented observations have been retrospectively considered as precursory. Here we present seismicity transients starting approx. 8 months before the 2023 MW 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake on the East Anatolian Fault Zone. Seismicity is composed of isolated spatio-temporal clusters within 65 km of future epicentre, displaying non-Poissonian inter-event time statistics, magnitude correlations and low Gutenberg-Richter b-values. Local comparable seismic transients have not been observed, at least since 2014. Close to epicentre and during the weeks prior to its rupture, only scarce seismic activity was observed. The trends of seismic preparatory attributes for this earthquake follow those previously documented in both laboratory stick-slip tests and numerical models of heterogeneous earthquake rupture affecting multiple fault segments. More comprehensive earthquake monitoring together with long-term seismic records may facilitate recognizing earthquake preparation processes from other regional deformation transients.

Seismic Evidence for an Earthquake Nucleation Phase

Near-source observations show that earthquakes initiate with a distinctive seismic nucleation phase that is characterized by a low rate of moment release relative to the rest of the event. This phase was observed for the 30 earthquakes having moment magnitudes 2.6 to 8.1, and the size and duration of this phase scale with the eventual size of the earthquake. During the nucleation phase, moment release was irregular and appears to have been confined to a limited region of the fault. It was characteristically followed by quadratic growth in the moment rate as rupture began to propagate away from the nucleation zone. These observations suggest that the nucleation process exerts a strong influence on the size of the eventual earthquake.

The Nature of the Landers-Mojave Earthquake Line

The Landers, California, earthquake of 28 June 1992 (magnitude = 7.3) is the latest of six significant earthquakes in the past 60 years whose epicenters and slip directions define a 100-kilometer alignment running approximately N15 degrees W across the central Mojave region. This pattern may indicate a geologically young throughgoing fault that replaces numerous older strike-slip faults by obliquely cutting across them. These older faults, and perhaps also the bend in the San Andreas fault, may be losing their ability to accommodate upper crustal deformation because they have become unfavorably oriented with respect to the regional stress field.

Mechanism Diversity of the Loma Prieta Aftershocks and the Mechanics of Mainshock-Aftershock Interaction

The diverse aftershock sequence of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake is inconsistent with conventional models of mainshock-aftershock interaction because the aftershocks do not accommodate mainshock-induced stress changes. Instead, the sense of slip of the aftershocks is consistent with failure in response to a nearly uniaxial stress field in which the maximum principal stress acts almost normal to the mainshock fault plane. This orientation implies that (i) stress drop in the mainshock was nearly complete, (ii) mainshock-induced decreases of fault strength helped were important in controlling the occurrence of after-shocks, and (iii) mainshock rupture was limited to those sections of the fault with preexisting shear stress available to drive fault slip.