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Barrie A, Barter CA, Bastianpillai J, Beasley WD, Bell CR, Bell J, Beral D, Berry BJM, Bevan KE, Bevan V, Bhanderi S, Bhargava A, Bilku D, et alNepogodiev D, Wilkin RJW, Bradshaw CJ, Skerritt C, Ball A, Moni-Nwinia W, Blanco-Colino R, Chauhan P, Drake TM, Frasson M, Gee O, Glasbey JC, Matthews JH, Morley GL, Naumann DN, Pata F, Soares AS, Bhangu A, Abbas SH, Abdelgadir AM, Abdelrahman A, Abdelrahman M, Abdelwahed A, Abou El Ella Y, Abulafi M, Acharya A, Adam ME, Adams RE, Adegbola SO, Adimonye A, Adnan M, Afshar S, Ahad A, Ahel J, Ahern DP, Ahmad Asmadi A, Ahmed B, Ahmed G, Ahmed OS, Ahmed S, Akbari K, Akinsola O, Al-Khyatt W, Al-Sarireh B, Al-Sheikh M, Alani M, Alexander R, Alhammali T, Ali M, Aljorfi A, Allen M, Allington J, Alshafei A, Amarasinghe R, Amayo A, Amin V, Amuthalingam T, Anandan L, Anderson O, Andreani SM, Andrews B, Ang A, Aravind B, Archer JE, Aremu MA, Arunachalam S, Aruparayil N, Ashmore DL, Ashour O, Ashraf N, Assaf N, Avalapati H, Awokoya OO, Ayube-Brown J, 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Chatzikonstantinou M, Cheah WL, Chean CS, Cheng S, Cheng SA, Cheruvu M, Chin MY, Chishti IA, Choi S, Chok SM, Chong B, Choong JH, Chowdhary M, Chowdhury F, Choy CH, Christian L, Christopoulos P, Chui K, Cipparrone M, Clark GL, Clarke SA, Cleeve SJ, Clement KD, Clements B, Clements C, Clements JD, Clements JM, Clements JS, Clements JA, Clingan R, Cloney L, Clough ECS, Coe PO, Collier-Wakefield O, Colliver DW, Colvin DA, Connelly TM, Connor MJ, Cook V, Cooke F, Cooper F, Cotton AE, Couch DG, Cousins L, Coyle D, Creasy W, Cresner RL, Crone A, Cross K, Crozier J, Cunha P, Curtis NJ, D'Souza N, Dagash H, Dalmia S, Daniels I, Danquah-Boateng D, Dar FA, Dart K, Das A, Daureeawoo R, Davidson S, Davidson JR, Davies PL, Davis S, Daya Shetty V, De-Manzoni-Garberini A, De-Marchi JA, Dean EA, Dean S, Delimpalta C, Denley S, Dennison G, Devine AA, Dharamavaram S, Dhari AA, Di Franco F, Di Saverio S, Dobson C, Docherty JA, Doherty C, Donaldson G, Donohoe NO, Donohoe O, Douka E, Doulias T, Downey M, Doyle C, Drye N, Du DT, Dudek JG, Dunning PG, Dyal ARS, Eardley NJ, Earnshaw L, Easdon S, Edwards SE, Egan RJ, Egan RJ, El-Masry S, El-Tayar O, Elbourne CR, Elgaddal S, Elseedawy M, Elshaer M, Elsharnoby OH, Elzeneini WMA, Emslie KM, Engall NFT, Ertansel B, Esmail HD, Ettles C, Evans J, Evans JD, Everden A, Fadel M, Fahmy SE, Fairfield CJ, Fanibi BF, Farina V, Farrell SM, Farrow EZ, Fasuyi JA, Faulkner G, Fawkner-Corbett D, Fawzi F, Fehervari M, Ferguson N, Finch JG, Finlayson H, Flack T, Foers W, Foley NM, Ford K, Forgie A, Foster A, Foster JD, Fox AMW, Francis N, Franklin D, Froud H, Fuller HL, Gaines E, Galea J, Gammeri E, Garnham J, Garvin J, Gates Z, Gentry R, Ghaffari I, Ghatorae S, Gidwani AL, Gilbert TG, Gilbert TM, Gill S, Gillespie M, Gillick J, Giorga A, Gopalakrishnan K, Gopalswamy S, Gopinath S, Gormely R, Govind G, Grant C, Graveston J, Gray J, Gray RT, Griffith D, Griffith JP, Griffiths EA, Griffiths SN, Griggs EJ, Grosvenor S, Grove T, Gulamhussein M, Guliani J, 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MS, Nyeko-Lacek M, O'Connor BR, O'Neill E, O'Neill N, O'Sullivan D, O'Brien J, Oakey M, Obeid N, Odeh A, Ogboru S, Ogbuokiri C, Okekunle B, Okorocha E, Olagbaiye O, Olivier JB, Ooi R, Orawiec P, Orizu M, Orme N, Ormiston R, Paget C, Pal A, Palani-Velu LK, Pan Y, Panda N, Pandey V, Pandya R, Pandya D, Paramasevon KR, Pardy C, Parkola MJ, Pasquali S, Patel AS, Patel BY, Patel C, Patel H, Patel N, Patel RT, Patel S, Patel Y, Patel MM, Patil SD, Payne CJ, Payne RE, Pearce JCH, Pearce L, Pedder A, Peirce CB, Peiris GB, Peleki A, Pellino G, Pento V, Peprah D, Perera HS, Perera MI, Phelan L, Photiou D, Pierre R, Pilkington JP, Pinkney TD, Pisavadia B, Poacher A, Podda M, Pollard H, Popova D, Poudevigne M, Prideaux A, Pullabatla Venkata UP, Quddus A, Quill S, Rabie M, Rabie MR, Radwan RW, Rae JF, Rahim A, Rahmani LS, Rajagopal S, Rajaram R, Rajaretnam N, Rajjoub Y, Rallage H, Ramcharan S, Ranathunga S, Rao M, Rao VSR, Raofi A, Rashid M, Rate A, Ravindran R, Raymond M, Raza SS, Reddy A, Redman 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Wilkinson D, Williams GL, Williams M, Williams R, Williams S, Wilson EJ, Wilson MSJ, Winter DC, Winter G, Wolff J, Wong A, Wong CLL, Wong SY, Wood CS, Woodrow C, Woodward A, Woodward B, Wright E, Wright HL, Wu F, Yalamarthi S, Yang P, Yardimci E, Yasin T, Yen SK, Yoganathan S, Yoong S, Youssef H, Yow LPS, Zaborowski A, Zadi AZ, Zarka ZA, Zarog MA, Zhang AY, Bhangu A. Appendicitis risk prediction models in children presenting with right iliac fossa pain (RIFT study): a prospective, multicentre validation study. THE LANCET. CHILD & ADOLESCENT HEALTH 2020; 4:271-280. [PMID: 32200936 DOI: 10.1016/s2352-4642(20)30006-7] [Show More Authors] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/20/2019] [Revised: 12/23/2019] [Accepted: 01/02/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Acute appendicitis is the most common surgical emergency in children. Differentiation of acute appendicitis from conditions that do not require operative management can be challenging in children. This study aimed to identify the optimum risk prediction model to stratify acute appendicitis risk in children. METHODS We did a rapid review to identify acute appendicitis risk prediction models. A prospective, multicentre cohort study was then done to evaluate performance of these models. Children (aged 5-15 years) presenting with acute right iliac fossa pain in the UK and Ireland were included. For each model, score cutoff thresholds were systematically varied to identify the best achievable specificity while maintaining a failure rate (ie, proportion of patients identified as low risk who had acute appendicitis) less than 5%. The normal appendicectomy rate was the proportion of resected appendixes found to be normal on histopathological examination. FINDINGS 15 risk prediction models were identified that could be assessed. The cohort study enrolled 1827 children from 139 centres, of whom 630 (34·5%) underwent appendicectomy. The normal appendicectomy rate was 15·9% (100 of 630 patients). The Shera score was the best performing model, with an area under the curve of 0·84 (95% CI 0·82-0·86). Applying score cutoffs of 3 points or lower for children aged 5-10 years and girls aged 11-15 years, and 2 points or lower for boys aged 11-15 years, the failure rate was 3·3% (95% CI 2·0-5·2; 18 of 539 patients), specificity was 44·3% (95% CI 41·4-47·2; 521 of 1176), and positive predictive value was 41·4% (38·5-44·4; 463 of 1118). Positive predictive value for the Shera score with a cutoff of 6 points or lower (72·6%, 67·4-77·4) was similar to that of ultrasound scan (75·0%, 65·3-83·1). INTERPRETATION The Shera score has the potential to identify a large group of children at low risk of acute appendicitis who could be considered for early discharge. Risk scoring does not identify children who should proceed directly to surgery. Medium-risk and high-risk children should undergo routine preoperative ultrasound imaging by operators trained to assess for acute appendicitis, and MRI or low-dose CT if uncertainty remains. FUNDING None.
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