ESCRS study of prophylaxis of postoperative endophthalmitis after cataract surgery: Preliminary report of principal results from a European multicenter study

PURPOSE

To report results in the European Society of Cataract & Refractive Surgeons (ESCRS) multicenter study of the prophylaxis of endophthalmitis after cataract surgery.

SETTING

Twenty-four ophthalmology units and eye clinics in Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Turkey, and the United Kingdom, with an administrative office in Ireland, coordinating center in England, and data management and statistical unit in Scotland.

METHODS

This partially masked randomized placebo-controlled multinational clinical study to evaluate prospectively the prophylactic effect of intracameral cefuroxime injection and/or perioperative levofloxacin eyedrops on the incidence of endophthalmitis after phacoemulsification cataract surgery began in September 2003 and was terminated early in January 2006. The study used random allocation of patients in a 2 x 2 factorial design.

RESULTS

By the end of 2005, complete follow-up records had been received for 13 698 study patients. Such a clear beneficial effect from the use of intracameral cefuroxime had been observed that it was agreed it would be unethical to continue the study and to wait for the completion of all follow-up procedures before reporting this important result. If total reported cases of endophthalmitis are considered, the incidence rate observed in those treatment groups not receiving cefuroxime prophylaxis (23 cases in 6862 patients) was almost 5 times as high (odds ratio [OR], 4.59; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.74-12.08; P = .002) as that in the groups receiving this treatment (5 cases in 6836 patients). If only cases proved to be due to infection are considered, the rate was more than 5 times as high (OR, 5.32; 95% CI, 1.55-18.26; P = .008) in the treatment groups not receiving cefuroxime. Although the use of perioperative levofloxacin eyedrops as prophylaxis was also associated with a reduction in the observed incidence rate of postoperative endophthalmitis, this effect was smaller and was not statistically significant, whether total reported cases or only cases proven to be due to infection are used in calculating the rates. As not all follow-up procedures are complete, it is possible that further cases of endophthalmitis may be reported; however, it is not expected that this will alter the main conclusion. Nevertheless, it is anticipated that successful completion of follow-up procedures in all patients will increase the total number in the study to approximately 16,000.

CONCLUSION

Intracameral cefuroxime administered at the time of surgery significantly reduced the risk for developing endophthalmitis after cataract surgery.

Positive and negative effects of widespread badger culling on tuberculosis in cattle

Human and livestock diseases can be difficult to control where infection persists in wildlife populations. For three decades, European badgers (Meles meles) have been culled by the British government in a series of attempts to limit the spread of Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis (TB), to cattle. Despite these efforts, the incidence of TB in cattle has risen consistently, re-emerging as a primary concern for Britain's cattle industry. Recently, badger culling has attracted controversy because experimental studies have reached contrasting conclusions (albeit using different protocols), with culled areas showing either markedly reduced or increased incidence of TB in cattle. This has confused attempts to develop a science-based management policy. Here we use data from a large-scale, randomized field experiment to help resolve these apparent differences. We show that, as carried out in this experiment, culling reduces cattle TB incidence in the areas that are culled, but increases incidence in adjoining areas. These findings are biologically consistent with previous studies but will present challenges for policy development.

Impact of localized badger culling on tuberculosis incidence in British cattle

Pathogens that are transmitted between wildlife, livestock and humans present major challenges for the protection of human and animal health, the economic sustainability of agriculture, and the conservation of wildlife. Mycobacterium bovis, the aetiological agent of bovine tuberculosis (TB), is one such pathogen. The incidence of TB in cattle has increased substantially in parts of Great Britain in the past two decades, adversely affecting the livelihoods of cattle farmers and potentially increasing the risks of human exposure. The control of bovine TB in Great Britain is complicated by the involvement of wildlife, particularly badgers (Meles meles), which appear to sustain endemic infection and can transmit TB to cattle. Between 1975 and 1997 over 20,000 badgers were culled as part of British TB control policy, generating conflict between conservation and farming interest groups. Here we present results from a large-scale field trial that indicate that localized badger culling not only fails to control but also seems to increase TB incidence in cattle.

The efficacy of emamectin benzoate against infestations of Lepeophtheirus salmonis on farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L) in Scotland, 2002-2006

BACKGROUND

Infestations of the parasitic copepod Lepeophtheirus salmonis, commonly referred to as sea lice, represent a major challenge to commercial salmon aquaculture. Dependence on a limited number of theraputants to control such infestations has led to concerns of reduced sensitivity in some sea lice populations. This study investigates trends in the efficacy of the in-feed treatment emamectin benzoate in Scotland, the active ingredient most widely used across all salmon producing regions.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Study data were drawn from over 50 commercial Atlantic salmon farms on the west coast of Scotland between 2002 and 2006. An epi-informatics approach was adopted whereby available farm records, descriptive epidemiological summaries and statistical linear modelling methods were used to identify factors that significantly affect sea lice abundance following treatment with emamectin benzoate (SLICE(R), Schering Plough Animal Health). The results show that although sea lice infestations are reduced following the application of emamectin benzoate, not all treatments are effective. Specifically there is evidence of variation across geographical regions and a reduction in efficacy over time.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Reduced sensitivity and potential resistance to currently available medicines are constant threats to maintaining control of sea lice populations on Atlantic salmon farms. There is a need for on-going monitoring of emamectin benzoate treatment efficacy together with reasons for any apparent reduction in performance. In addition, strategic rotation of medicines should be encouraged and empirical evidence for the benefit of such strategies more fully evaluated.

Culling and cattle controls influence tuberculosis risk for badgers

Human and livestock diseases can be difficult to control where infection persists in wildlife populations. In Britain, European badgers (Meles meles) are implicated in transmitting Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis (TB), to cattle. Badger culling has therefore been a component of British TB control policy for many years. However, large-scale field trials have recently shown that badger culling has the capacity to cause both increases and decreases in cattle TB incidence. Here, we show that repeated badger culling in the same area is associated with increasing prevalence of M. bovis infection in badgers, especially where landscape features allow badgers from neighboring land to recolonize culled areas. This impact on prevalence in badgers might reduce the beneficial effects of culling on cattle TB incidence, and could contribute to the detrimental effects that have been observed. Additionally, we show that suspension of cattle TB controls during a nationwide epidemic of foot and mouth disease, which substantially delayed removal of TB-affected cattle, was associated with a widespread increase in the prevalence of M. bovis infection in badgers. This pattern suggests that infection may be transmitted from cattle to badgers, as well as vice versa. Clearly, disease control measures aimed at either host species may have unintended consequences for transmission, both within and between species. Our findings highlight the need for policymakers to consider multiple transmission routes when managing multihost pathogens.

Assessing the convergence of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods: an example from evaluation of diagnostic tests in absence of a gold standard

The accessibility of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for statistical inference have improved with the advent of general purpose software. This enables researchers with limited statistical skills to perform Bayesian analysis. Using MCMC sampling to do statistical inference requires convergence of the MCMC chain to its stationary distribution. There is no certain way to prove convergence; it is only possible to ascertain when convergence definitely has not been achieved. These methods are rather subjective and not implemented as automatic safeguards in general MCMC software. This paper considers a pragmatic approach towards assessing the convergence of MCMC methods illustrated by a Bayesian analysis of the Hui-Walter model for evaluating diagnostic tests in the absence of a gold standard. The Hui-Walter model has two optimal solutions, a property which causes problems with convergence when the solutions are sufficiently close in the parameter space. Using simulated data we demonstrate tools to assess the convergence and mixing of MCMC chains using examples with and without convergence. Suggestions to remedy the situation when the MCMC sampler fails to converge are given. The epidemiological implications of the two solutions of the Hui-Walter model are discussed.

Lyme borreliosis habitat assessment

Tick ecologists throughout Europe provided descriptions of Lyme borreliosis habitats according to a standardised format and data for 105 habitats in 16 countries were received. The data showed that high risk situations, as defined by the presence of large numbers of B. burgdorferi sensu lato-infected nymphal I. ricinus, occur in heterogeneous deciduous woodland, usually with a recreational function and with a diverse fauna, usually including deer. Large numbers of ticks occurred in some other habitats, but infection prevalence was usually low. The situation for adult I. ricinus was similar but less clearly defined. Tick infection rates were found to be lower in western Europe than in the east, and the infection rate in I. persulcatus, the most easterly vector species, was markedly higher than in I. ricinus. In the vast majority of habitats the infection rate in adult I. ricinus was greater than in nymphs. Larvae were rarely found to be infected.

Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccination reduces the severity and progression of tuberculosis in badgers

Control of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in cattle has proven particularly challenging where reservoirs of infection exist in wildlife populations. In Britain and Ireland, control is hampered by a reservoir of infection in Eurasian badgers (Meles meles). Badger culling has positive and negative effects on bovine TB in cattle and is difficult, costly and controversial. Here we show that Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination of captive badgers reduced the progression, severity and excretion of Mycobacterium bovis infection after experimental challenge. In a clinical field study, BCG vaccination of free-living badgers reduced the incidence of positive serological test results by 73.8 per cent. In common with other species, BCG did not appear to prevent infection of badgers subjected to experimental challenge, but did significantly reduce the overall disease burden. BCG vaccination of badgers could comprise an important component of a comprehensive programme of measures to control bovine TB in cattle.

Impacts of widespread badger culling on cattle tuberculosis: concluding analyses from a large-scale field trial

BACKGROUND

Bovine tuberculosis (TB) has re-emerged as a major problem for British cattle farmers. Failure to control the infection has been linked to transmission from European badgers; badger culling has therefore formed a component of British TB control policy since 1973.

OBJECTIVES AND DESIGN

To investigate the impact of repeated widespread badger culling on cattle TB, the Randomised Badger Culling Trial compared TB incidence in cattle herds in and around ten culling areas (each 100 km2) with those in and around ten matched unculled areas.

RESULTS

Overall, cattle TB incidence was 23.2% lower (95% confidence interval (CI) 12.4-32.7% lower) inside culled areas, but 24.5% (95% CI 0.6% lower-56.0% higher) higher on land <or=2 km outside, relative to matched unculled areas. Inside the culling area boundary the beneficial effect of culling tended to increase with distance from the boundary (p=0.085) and to increase on successive annual culls (p=0.064). In adjoining areas, the detrimental effect tended to diminish on successive annual culls (p=0.17). On the basis of such linear trends, the estimated net effect per annum for culling areas similar to those in the trial was detrimental between the first and second culls, but beneficial after the fourth and later culls, for the range of analyses performed.

CONCLUSIONS

Careful consideration is needed to determine in what settings systematic repeated culling might be reliably predicted to be beneficial, and in these cases whether the benefits of such culling warrant the costs involved.

ESCRS study of prophylaxis of postoperative endophthalmitis after cataract surgery

PURPOSE

To present the development and design of the European Society of Cataract & Refractive Surgeons multicenter study of the prevention of postsurgical infective endophthalmitis after phacoemulsification and to describe the process for its successful implementation and conduct.

SETTING

Twenty-four ophthalmology units and eye clinics in Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Turkey, and the United Kingdom, with an administrative office in Ireland, coordinating center in England, and data management and statistical unit in Scotland.

METHODS

This partially masked randomized placebo-controlled multinational clinical study was designed to evaluate prospectively the prophylactic effect of intracameral cefuroxime and/or perioperative topical levofloxacin on postoperative endophthalmitis after cataract surgery. Random allocation was based on a 2 x 2 factorial design that included participating centers as a class variable. Real-time electronic data collection monitored study progress and provided weekly outcome tables, monthly recruitment summaries, and quarterly analytical reports for the study's Data Monitoring Committee, which evaluated the safety and efficacy by Internet-based conferences.

RESULTS

A 2-year lead time was required to meet harmonized standards of clinical research in the European Union, obtain ministerial authorization in 3 countries, gain institutional approvals at 24 hospitals, and procure indemnity insurance for surgical centers. Informed consent instruments, designed to comply with national health policies, were translated into 8 languages. The use of information technology to collect study data enabled the organizers to evaluate individual eligibility at enrollment, adherence with study medications during and after surgery, and postoperative status during follow-up.

CONCLUSION

This international cooperative study provided the opportunity to estimate the current incidence of endophthalmitis after cataract surgery in Europe and determine whether 1 or both of 2 antimicrobial regimens reduces the risk for postsurgical intraocular infection.

Environmental decontamination of a hospital isolation room using high-intensity narrow-spectrum light

The performance of a new decontamination technology, referred to as 'high-intensity narrow-spectrum light environmental decontamination system' (HINS-light EDS) was evaluated by a series of three studies carried out in a hospital isolation room used to treat burns patients. The ceiling-mounted HINS-light EDS emits high-intensity 405nm light which, although bactericidal, is harmless to patients and staff thereby permitting continuous environmental disinfection throughout the day. Performance efficacy was assessed by contact agar plate sampling and enumeration of staphylococcal bacteria on environmental surfaces within the room before, during and after HINS-light EDS treatment. When the room was unoccupied, use of HINS-light EDS resulted in ∼90% reduction of surface bacterial levels and when the room was occupied by an MRSA-infected burns patient, reductions between 56% and 86% were achieved, with the highest reduction (86%) measured following an extended period of HINS-light EDS operation. In an on/off intervention study, surface bacterial levels were reduced by 62% by HINS-light EDS treatment and returned to normal contamination levels two days after the system was switched off. These reductions of staphylococci, including Staphylococcus aureus and meticillin-resistant S. aureus, by HINS-light EDS treatment were greater than the reductions achieved by normal infection control and cleaning activities alone. The findings provide strong evidence that HINS-light EDS, used as a supplementary procedure, can make a significant contribution to bacterial decontamination in clinical environments.

Sentinel practice-based survey of the management and health of horses in northern Britain

Details of the management, feeding, level of activity and routine health care of horses in Scotland and the five northernmost counties in England were recorded through a stratified random sample of horse owners who had responded to a previous survey. Sixty-eight per cent of the horses were kept where their owners resided, and 32 per cent were kept away from the owner's home. More than 99 per cent were turned out to grazing for at least part of the year and 81 per cent were stabled for at least part of the time, most commonly bedded on straw (50 per cent) or shavings (34 per cent). Hay was fed to 87 per cent, sugar beet pulp to 64 per cent and commercially prepared concentrate mixes to 60 per cent of the horses. Hacking was the most popular activity (52 per cent of horses) followed by riding/pony club events (28 per cent) and showing (21 per cent). The majority of the horses were involved in more than one activity. There were an estimated 0.88 veterinary visits per horse per year and 29 per cent of the horses were reported to suffer from at least one permanent or recurrent health disorder. The median annual numbers of administrations of vaccines (influenza and tetanus) and anthelmintics were one and seven respectively per horse, and each horse was shod a median seven times. There were significant differences in the management of horses kept in different types of premises and in areas of different human population density.

Effects of Temperature, Water Activity, and Incubation Time on Production of Aflatoxins and Cyclopiazonic Acid by an Isolate of Aspergillus flavus in Surface Agar Culture

An experiment with a full factorial design was used to study the effects of and interactions among temperature, water activity (a(infw)), incubation period, and substrate on coproduction of aflatoxins (AF) and cyclopiazonic acid (CPA) by an isolate of Aspergillus flavus. Analysis of variance showed that there was a complex interaction among all of these factors and that this influenced the relative concentrations of the mycotoxins produced. The optimum temperatures for the production of AF and CPA were 30(deg)C and 25(deg)C, respectively. Both mycotoxins were maximally produced (0.306 to 0.330 (mu)g of AF(middot)ml of medium(sup-1), 4.040 to 6.256 (mu)g of CPA(middot)ml of medium(sup-1)) at an a(infw) of 0.996 and after 15 days of incubation. No AF were produced in either yeast extract agar or Czapek yeast autolysate agar medium at an a(infw) of 0.90 at 20 or 37(deg)C after 15 days (minimum conditions), while 0.077 to 0.439 (mu)g of CPA(middot)ml of medium(sup-1) was produced under the same conditions. Yeast extract agar favored maximum AF production, and Czapek yeast autolysate agar favored maximum CPA production.

BCG vaccination reduces risk of tuberculosis infection in vaccinated badgers and unvaccinated badger cubs

Wildlife is a global source of endemic and emerging infectious diseases. The control of tuberculosis (TB) in cattle in Britain and Ireland is hindered by persistent infection in wild badgers (Meles meles). Vaccination with Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) has been shown to reduce the severity and progression of experimentally induced TB in captive badgers. Analysis of data from a four-year clinical field study, conducted at the social group level, suggested a similar, direct protective effect of BCG in a wild badger population. Here we present new evidence from the same study identifying both a direct beneficial effect of vaccination in individual badgers and an indirect protective effect in unvaccinated cubs. We show that intramuscular injection of BCG reduced by 76% (Odds ratio = 0.24, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.11-0.52) the risk of free-living vaccinated individuals testing positive to a diagnostic test combination to detect progressive infection. A more sensitive panel of tests for the detection of infection per se identified a reduction of 54% (Odds ratio = 0.46, 95% CI 0.26-0.88) in the risk of a positive result following vaccination. In addition, we show the risk of unvaccinated badger cubs, but not adults, testing positive to an even more sensitive panel of diagnostic tests decreased significantly as the proportion of vaccinated individuals in their social group increased (Odds ratio = 0.08, 95% CI 0.01-0.76; P = 0.03). When more than a third of their social group had been vaccinated, the risk to unvaccinated cubs was reduced by 79% (Odds ratio = 0.21, 95% CI 0.05-0.81; P = 0.02).

A quantitative risk assessment for the occurrence of campylobacter in chickens at the point of slaughter

A quantitative risk assessment model investigating the risk of human infection with campylobacter from the consumption of chicken meat/products is currently being formulated. Here such an approach is used to evaluate the probability that a random bird, selected at slaughter from Great Britain's national poultry flock, will be campylobacter-positive. This is determined from the probability that a flock chosen at random contains at least one colonized bird and the within-flock prevalence of such a flock at slaughter. The model indicates that the probability bird chosen at random being campylobacter-positive at slaughter is 0.53. This probability value has associated uncertainty, the 5th percentile being 0.51 and the 95th percentile 0.55. The model predicts that delaying the age at first exposure to campylobacter can have a significant impact on reducing the probability of a bird being campylobacter-positive at slaughter. However, implementation of current biosecurity methods makes this difficult to achieve.

The genetic basis of resistance to Ostertagia circumcincta in lambs

The relationship between Ostertagia (Teladorsagia) circumcincta and sheep is one of the best understood host-parasite relationships in any species. The key components of resistance have been quantified, the extent of genetic control has been established for lambs, and methods now exist to breed lambs which will be both more resistant to worms and more productive than unselected lambs. A major gene for resistance has been identified within or around the major histocompatibility complex, and this gene appears to be the strongest yet identified for resistance to any parasite species. The most important mechanisms of resistance are local IgA responses which regulate worm fecundity and immediate hypersensitivity responses which regulate worm burdens. IgA responses develop before effective immediate hypersensitivity responses. Good simulation models now exist to predict, for example, outbreaks of disease and the response of sheep to selection. The challenge now is to use our improved understanding of the population biology to develop even better simulation models and to produce expert systems based on these models which can be used by veterinarians and others to determine optimal procedures for individual farms to control disease and reduce sub-clinical economic losses.

Susceptibility of N'Dama and Boran cattle to sequential challenges with tsetse-transmitted clones of Trypanosoma congolense

The susceptibility of N'Dama cattle (Bos taurus) to four consecutive infections with different tsetse-transmitted clones of Trypanosoma congolense was compared with that of Borans (Bos indicus). All animals were aged 13 months at the start of the study and had been born and raised free from trypanosomiasis under the same management and nutritional conditions, thereby limiting environmental factors that could have influenced susceptibility. While cattle of both breeds were equally susceptible to the establishment of trypanosome infections, the N'Damas exhibited superior resistance. Despite infection with virulent parasites, the N'Damas gained weight at the same rate as uninfected control animals, they did not develop anaemia to the extent that trypanocidal drug treatment was required, and all made a spontaneous recovery to normal haematological values within two to four months. In contrast, all the Borans needed treatment during the course of the four infections because of severe anaemia and showed markedly reduced liveweight gains. These clinical differences in the N'Damas were associated with two repeatable characteristics, namely, the ability to control parasitaemia and to 'resist' anaemia, processes that did not appear to be linked. Also in contrast to the Borans, the N'Damas were able to mount accelerated haemopoietic responses, resulting in the reduced severity of anaemia following a primary infection. These findings pose the question as to whether the ability to control parasitaemia and to 'resist' anaemia could be used as criteria for identifying resistant or trypanotolerant cattle.

Herd-level risk factors associated with tuberculosis breakdowns among cattle herds in England before the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

A case-control study of the factors associated with the risk of a bovine tuberculosis (TB) breakdown in cattle herds was undertaken within the randomized badger culling trial (RBCT). TB breakdowns occurring prior to the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in three RBCT triplets were eligible to be cases; controls were selected from the same RBCT area. Data from 151 case farms and 117 control farms were analysed using logistic regression. The strongest factors associated with an increased TB risk were movement of cattle onto the farm from markets or farm sales, operating a farm over multiple premises and the use of either covered yard or 'other' housing types. Spreading artificial fertilizers or farmyard manure on grazing land were both associated with decreased risk. These first case-control results from the RBCT will be followed by similar analyses as more data become available.

The efficacy of Salenvac, a Salmonella enterica subsp. Enterica serotype Enteritidis iron-restricted bacterin vaccine, in laying chickens

The protective effect of two vaccination regimes using Salenvac, a commercially available iron-restricted Salmonella enterica subsp. Enterica serotype Enteritidis PT4 bacterin vaccine, was verified in laying birds. Immunization was intramuscular at 1 day old and again at 4 weeks of age (V2), or at 1 day and 4 weeks with a third dose at 18 weeks of age (V3). Challenge S. Enteritidis (5 to 7.5); x 10(7) colony forming units) was given intravenously at 8, 17, 23, 30 and 59 weeks of age. For all age groups, both vaccination regimes reduced significantly the number of tissues and faecal samples that were culture positive for the challenge strain. For laying birds, fewer eggs (P < 0.001) were culture positive for S. Enteritidis after challenge from vaccinated laying birds (56/439 batches of eggs) than unvaccinated birds (99/252 batches). The data give compelling evidence that the vaccine is efficacious and may contribute to the reduction of layer infection and egg contamination.

The processes influencing the distribution of parasitic nematodes among naturally infected lambs

The impact of mixed, nematode infection upon a group of animals will depend upon the number of nematodes present, how they are distributed among hosts and whether individuals that are heavily parasitized with one species are more likely to be heavily parasitized with other species. A survey of over 500 six-month-old, Scottish Blackface lambs from a single farm in Southwest Strathclyde identified 7 different categories of nematodes in the abomasum and small intestine. There were considerable differences among years and among nematodes in the prevalence and mean intensity of infection. Ostertagia circumcincta was present in nearly all lambs and judged by prevalence and intensity is one of the most successful of all parasitic nematodes. Each category of nematodes had a skewed distribution; most animals had relatively few worms but a small proportion had many worms. The variance of the number of nematodes in each category were approximately equal to the square of the mean. The counts of adult O. circumcincta followed a negative binomial distribution, but the negative binomial distribution did not provide a good description of the observed values for the other species. These other species had a lower prevalence and possibly some sheep were not exposed to infection. There was no significant genetic variation among lambs in the number of nematodes present and therefore the differences among these lambs were unlikely to be a consequence of genetic differences in host susceptibility. Lambs with increased numbers of one species were more likely to be have increased numbers of the other species, but the correlations were weak and may reflect covariation in exposure to different parasites.

Demographic characteristics of the equine population of northern Britain

The size, composition and distribution of the equine population of Scotland and the five northernmost counties in England were estimated through a series of mailed questionnaire surveys of sentinel veterinary practices and horse owners. An estimated 96,622 equine animals were kept by an estimated 26,114 owners. The mean (sd) age of the population was 11.0 (7.5) years (range one month to 37 years). Thoroughbred or thoroughbred-cross animals were the most numerous, constituting 30 per cent (95 per cent confidence interval 27 to 33 per cent) of the total population. The ratio of males:females was 1:1.

A prediction model for bovine ostertagiasis

A mathematical model based on development and mortality rates, and incorporating data on the infectivity, fecundity and migratory behaviour of Ostertagia ostertagi, was used to predict the level of pasture contamination and the occurrence of clinical ostertagiasis in grazing calves during 1975 and 1976. A comparison of the predicted and observed events showed a good correlation.