Predicting time-to-conversion for dementia of Alzheimer's type using multi-modal deep survival analysis

Dementia of Alzheimer's Type (DAT) is a complex disorder influenced by numerous factors, and it is difficult to predict individual progression trajectory from normal or mildly impaired cognition to DAT. An in-depth examination of multiple modalities of data may yield an accurate estimate of time-to-conversion to DAT for preclinical subjects at various stages of disease development. We used a deep-learning model designed for survival analyses to predict subjects' time-to-conversion to DAT using the baseline data of 401 subjects with 63 features from MRI, genetic, and CDC (Cognitive tests, Demographic, and CSF) data in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database. Our study demonstrated that CDC data outperform genetic or MRI data in predicting DAT time-to-conversion for subjects with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI). On the other hand, genetic data provided the most predictive power for subjects with Normal Cognition (NC) at the time of the visit. Furthermore, combining MRI and genetic features improved the time-to-event prediction over using either modality alone. Finally, adding CDC to any combination of features only worked as well as using only the CDC features.

Machine Learning Based Multimodal Neuroimaging Genomics Dementia Score for Predicting Future Conversion to Alzheimer's Disease

BACKGROUND

The increasing availability of databases containing both magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and genetic data allows researchers to utilize multimodal data to better understand the characteristics of dementia of Alzheimer's type (DAT).

OBJECTIVE

The goal of this study was to develop and analyze novel biomarkers that can help predict the development and progression of DAT.

METHODS

We used feature selection and ensemble learning classifier to develop an image/genotype-based DAT score that represents a subject's likelihood of developing DAT in the future. Three feature types were used: MRI only, genetic only, and combined multimodal data. We used a novel data stratification method to better represent different stages of DAT. Using a pre-defined 0.5 threshold on DAT scores, we predicted whether a subject would develop DAT in the future.

RESULTS

Our results on Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database showed that dementia scores using genetic data could better predict future DAT progression for currently normal control subjects (Accuracy = 0.857) compared to MRI (Accuracy = 0.143), while MRI can better characterize subjects with stable mild cognitive impairment (Accuracy = 0.614) compared to genetics (Accuracy = 0.356). Combining MRI and genetic data showed improved classification performance in the remaining stratified groups.

CONCLUSION

MRI and genetic data can contribute to DAT prediction in different ways. MRI data reflects anatomical changes in the brain, while genetic data can detect the risk of DAT progression prior to the symptomatic onset. Combining information from multimodal data appropriately can improve prediction performance.