Risk assessment after acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage

The aim of this study was to establish the relative importance of risk factors for mortality after acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage, and to formulate a simple numerical scoring system that categorizes patients by risk. A prospective, unselected, multicentre, population based study was undertaken using standardised questionnaires in two phases one year apart. A total of 4185 cases of acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage over the age of 16 identified over a four month period in 1993 and 1625 cases identified subsequently over a three month period in 1994 were included in the study. It was found that age, shock, comorbidity, diagnosis, major stigmata of recent haemorrhage, and rebleeding are all independent predictors of mortality when assessed using multiple logistic regression. A numerical score using these parameters has been developed that closely follows the predictions generated by logistical regression equations. Haemoglobin, sex, presentation (other than shock), and drug therapy (non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and anticoagulants) are not represented in the final model. When tested for general applicability in a second population, the scoring system was found to reproducibly predict mortality in each risk category. In conclusion, a simple numerical score can be used to categorize patients presenting with acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage by risk of death. This score can be used to determine case mix when comparing outcomes in audit and research and to calculate risk standardised mortality. In addition, this risk score can identify 15% of all cases with acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage at the time of presentation and 26% of cases after endoscopy who are at low risk of rebleeding and negligible risk of death and who might therefore be considered for early discharge or outpatient treatment with consequent resource savings.

Incidence of and mortality from acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage in the United Kingdom. Steering Committee and members of the National Audit of Acute Upper Gastrointestinal Haemorrhage

OBJECTIVE

To describe the current epidemiology of acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage.

DESIGN

Population based, unselected, multicentre, prospective survey.

SETTING

74 hospitals receiving emergency admissions in four health regions in the United Kingdom.

SUBJECTS

4185 cases of acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage in which patients were aged over 16 years identified over four months.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Incidence and mortality.

RESULTS

The overall incidence of acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage in the United Kingdom is 103/100,000 adults per year. The incidence rises from 23 in those aged under 30 to 485 in those aged over 75. At all ages incidence in men was more than double that in women except in elderly patients. 14% of the haemorrhages occurred in inpatients already in hospital for some other reason. In 27% of cases (37% female, 19% male) patients were aged over 80. Overall mortality was 14% (11% in emergency admissions and 33% in haemorrhage in inpatients). In the emergency admissions, 65% of deaths in those aged under 80 were associated with malignancy or organ failure at presentation. Mortality for patients under 60 in the absence of malignancy or organ failure at presentation was 0.8%.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage is twice that previously reported in England and similar to that reported in Scotland. The incidence increases appreciably with age. Although the proportion of elderly patients continues to rise and mortality increases steeply with age, age standardised mortality is lower than in earlier studies. Deaths occurred almost exclusively in very old patients or those with severe comorbidity.

Prospective audit of upper gastrointestinal endoscopy in two regions of England: safety, staffing, and sedation methods

A prospective audit of upper gastrointestinal endoscopy in 36 hospitals across two regions provided data from 14,149 gastroscopies of which 1113 procedures were therapeutic and 13,036 were diagnostic. Most patients received gastroscopy under intravenous sedation; midazolam was the preferred agent in the North West and diazepam was preferred in East Anglia. Mean doses of each agent used were 5.7 mg and 13.8 mg respectively, although there was a wide distribution of doses reported. Only half of the patients endoscoped had some form of intravenous access in situ and few were supplied with supplementary oxygen. The death rate from this study for diagnostic endoscopy was 1 in 2000 and the morbidity rate was 1 in 200; cardiorespiratory complications were the most prominent in this group and there was a strong relation between the lack of monitoring and use of high dose benzodiazepines and the occurrence of adverse outcomes. In particular there was a link between the use of local anaesthetic sprays and the development of pneumonia after gastroscopy (p < 0.001). Twenty perforations occurred out of a total of 774 dilatations of which eight patients died (death rate 1 in 100). A number of units were found to have staffing problems, to be lacking in basic facilities, and to have poor or virtually non-existent recovery areas. In addition, a number of junior endoscopists were performing endoscopy unsupervised and with minimal training.

Selection of patients for early discharge or outpatient care after acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage. National Audit of Acute Upper Gastrointestinal Haemorrhage

BACKGROUND

Acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage is a common medical emergency and hospital admission has usually been regarded as obligatory until the risk of further haemorrhage has receded. This policy means that some patients at low risk stay in hospital for longer than is necessary especially when diagnostic endoscopy is delayed. We attempted to identify patients who had negligible risk of further bleeding or death and for whom early discharge or even outpatient management would be possible with no adverse effect on standards of care.

METHODS

We used a validated risk scoring system based on age (score 0-2), presence of shock (0-2), comorbidity (0-3), diagnosis (0-2), and endoscopic stigmata of recent haemorrhage (0-2); the maximum possible score was 11. We studied patients identified through the UK national Audit of acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage; they had been admitted with upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage to hospitals in the UK during 4 months of 1993. This analysis was based on the 2531 patients from the national audit who underwent endoscopy after an acute admission.

FINDINGS

744 (29.4%) of the 2531 patients scored 2 or less on the risk score. Of these patients only 32 (4.3% [95% Cl 3.0-6.0] rebled and only one (0.1% [0.006-0.75] died). Thus, the risk score identifies patients at low risk of rebleeding or death. The median hospital stay increased with risk score. Within risk score categories of 5 or less, there was a trend of increasing hospital stay as the time between admission and endoscopy increased.

INTERPRETATION

Our risk score identifies a large proportion of patients with acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage who are at low risk of further bleeding or death. Early endoscopy and discharge of such patients could allow substantial resource savings.

New immunotype schema for Pseudomonas aeruginosa based on protective antigens

The development of an antigen schema for Pseudomonas aeruginosa based on challenge protection in mice as distinguished from serological tests in vitro was described. For 342 cultures, seven groups of cross-protective homogeneity were defined.

Variation in outcome after acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage. The National Audit of Acute Upper Gastrointestinal Haemorrhage

Hospital mortality after acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage varies widely. In a population-based, multi-centre, prospective survey of the management and outcome of unselected cases of acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage, we have assessed the effect of risk standardisation on this variation. We collected data from 74 acute hospitals in four health regions in the UK on patients aged 16 years and over who presented with acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage during 4 months in 1993 (3981 cases) and 3 months in 1994 (1584 cases). The overall mortality was 14.3% (798/5565). Crude mortality in individual hospitals ranged from 0% to 29%, and differed significantly from the overall rate in eight. Risk-standardised mortality ratios were calculated with a risk score derived from well-established risk factors. Only two hospitals had standardised mortality ratios significantly different from the reference value. When hospitals were ranked in order of increasing mortality, risk standardisation for age, shock, and comorbidity resulted in 21 of the 74 hospitals changing ranks by ten or more places. After further standardisation for diagnosis, endoscopic stigmata of recent haemorrhage, and rebleeding, 32 hospitals moved ten or more places from their original rank; one hospital moved 45 places. Risk standardisation to correct for variation in case mix results in apparently significant differences in mortality rates becoming non-significant. The current state of routine data collection does not allow for anything but the most basic case-mix adjustment to be made. Simple league tables of crude mortality are misleading in this disorder and cannot be regarded as a reflection of the quality of health care.

The effect of prostatectomy on symptom severity and quality of life

OBJECTIVE

To determine the effectiveness of prostatectomy in reducing symptom severity and bother and in improving disease-specific and general quality of life.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A prospective, cohort study was performed in National Health Service and private hospitals in the Northern, Wessex, Mersey, and South-West Thames Health Regions which comprised 5276 men undergoing prostatectomy recruited by 101 of the 106 (96%) surgeons (specialist and non-specialist) performing prostatectomy during a 6-month period. Patients were assessed using the American Urological Association (AUA) Symptom Index Score, the AUA symptom bother score, disease-specific and generic quality-of-life scores, the occurrence of adverse events (urinary incontinence, erectile impotence and retrograde ejaculation) and three global (general) questions on the results of their treatment. The outcome was assessed 3 months after surgery.

RESULTS

Prostatectomy was effective in reducing both symptoms (initial mean score 20.1 reduced to 7.4, P < 0.001) and symptom bother (initial mean score 14.4 reduced to 4.3, P < 0.001). Not all men experienced a good reduction in symptoms; 121 (3.9%) were worse, 301 (9.6%) were the same, and 721 (23%) experienced only slight improvement. The type of operation, grade of principal operator and use of pre-operative investigations were not associated with the extent of symptomatic improvement. Changes in symptom severity were highly correlated with changes in bothersomeness++ and disease-specific quality of life but not with generic quality of life. A third of men who were continent before surgery reported some incontinence 3 months later, although only 6% found it a problem. Two-thirds of men experienced retrograde ejaculation and 31% experienced some erectile impotence following surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

Prostatectomy is effective in reducing symptoms in most men. Men who experience a substantial reduction in symptoms were more likely to report a favourable outcome. The study confirmed that approximately one-third of men reported an unfavourable result 3 months after their operation.

Day-case surgery for hernias and haemorrhoids. A clinical, social, and economic evaluation

Patients with inguinal hernia or haemorrhoids were randomly allocated to an experimental group expected to stay in hospital for only eight hours after surgery or a control group scheduled for discharge on the fifth or sixth day. There was no difference in clinical outcome between the two groups of hernia patients. However, complications were twice as common in haemorrhoid day-patients as in long-stay haemorhoid patients. The standard postoperative regimen for haemorrhoids has since been changed and the change has been accompanied by a fall in the complication-rate. Day-case surgery appears to have similar social effects on the patient and his family as traditional hospital care. There was no significant difference in either the additional expenditure incurred or patients' perceptions of the disruption associated with their operation and convalescence. In the hospital under study, day-case surgery was saving between 20 pounds and 29 pounds per patient. However, this conclusion should not be extrapolated to the N.H.S. as a whole without taking into account the use to which the resources released by day-case surgery will be put.

The quality of routinely collected maternity data

OBJECTIVE

To assess the validity of clinical information held on a regional maternity database, the St Mary's Maternity Information System (SMMIS).

DESIGN

A retrospective review of 892 maternity case notes and matched SMMIS records, by a midwife trained in clinical coding techniques.

SETTING

Three maternity units in the North West Thames Region.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Percentage agreement for 17 directly recorded SMMIS data items and equivalent data abstracted from the notes. Frequencies of diagnosis codes abstracted from case notes, as compared with those generated by SMMIS on the basis of directly recorded data.

RESULTS

A generally high level of agreement was observed between the abstracts of the notes and the SMMIS records. Of the 17 data items examined, 10 showed 95% agreement or better, and all but two exceeded 80% agreement. Little difference was found between the levels of agreement observed at the three sites. A greater number and range of diagnosis codes were abstracted from the notes than were generated by SMMIS.

CONCLUSIONS

The directly recorded clinical data held on the SMMIS regional database is largely accurate and consistently recorded across a variety of units. The database can therefore be considered a valuable resource for the comparative audit of maternity practice. The SMMIS technique for deriving, on a semi-automatic basis, diagnosis codes from the directly recorded fields, appears to work moderately well. We suggest that the direct method of data collection used in SMMIS could provide a model for other specialties in the National Health Service.

The incidence and prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease in North Tees Health District

The experience with inflammatory bowel disease in a stable, defined population in northeast England is described. In this population, the incidence of inflammatory bowel disease was higher than expected. In particular, a high incidence of colorectal and anal Crohn's disease was found. The literature is reviewed in order to identify some of the factors responsible for this unusual prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease in the study population. No explanation for our unexpected findings can be advanced.

Testicular atrophy as a consequence of inguinal hernia repair

Testicular atrophy is an uncommon but well recognized complication of inguinal hernia repair and one that frequently results in litigation. A series of ten cases of testicular atrophy occurring after hernia repair in nine patients is presented. Identifiable risk factors were present in eight instances. Surgeons should make careful enquiries as to previous groin or scrotal surgery and, when indicated, warn the patient before surgery of the increased risk of testicular atrophy. Overzealous dissection of a distal hernia sac, dislocation of the testis from the scrotum into the wound and concomitant scrotal surgery should all be avoided.

Influencing the practice and outcome in acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage. Steering Committee of the National Audit of Acute Upper Gastrointestinal Haemorrhage

AIMS

To assess changes in practice and outcome in acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage following the feedback of data, the reemphasis of national guidelines, and specific recommendations following an initial survey.

DESIGN

A prospective, multicentre, audit cycle. Forty five hospitals from three health regions participated in two phases of the audit cycle.

PATIENTS

Phase I: 2332 patients with acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage; phase II: 1625 patients with upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage.

METHODS

Patients were evaluated with respect to management (with reference to the recommendations in the national guidelines), mortality, and length of hospital stay.

RESULTS

Following the distribution of data from the first phase of the National Audit and the formulation of specific recommendations for improving practice, the proportion of hospitals with local guidelines or protocols for the management of upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage rose from 71% (32/45) to 91% (41/45); 12 of the 32 hospitals with guidelines during the first phase revised their guidelines following the initial survey. There was a small but significant increase in the proportion of all patients who underwent endoscopy (from 81% to 86%), the proportion who underwent endoscopy within 24 hours of admission (from 50% to 56%), and the use of central venous pressure monitoring in patients with organ failure requiring blood transfusion or those with profound shock (from 30% to 43%). There was, however, no change in the use of high dependency beds or joint medical/surgical management in high risk cases. There was no significant change in crude or risk standardised mortality (13.4% in the first phase and 14.4% in the second phase).

CONCLUSIONS

Although many of the participating hospitals have made efforts to improve practice by producing or updating guidelines or protocols, there has been only a small demonstrable change in some areas of practice during the National Audit. The failure to detect any improvement in mortality may reflect this lack of change of practice, but may also reflect the fact that a large proportion of the deaths in this unselected study are not preventable; only a very large study could hope to demonstrate a significant change out of the context of a clinical trial.

Short stay surgery for inguinal hernia: experience of the Shouldice operation, 1970-1982

Between mid 1970 and mid 1982, 696 patients underwent 718 operations for primary inguinal hernias by the Shouldice surgical technique. Follow-up to 31 December 1983 revealed 6 recurrences, 40 patients died during the follow-up period and 37 were lost to the study. Five patients required re-operation for complications of the suture material. Polypropylene was the most efficacious of the suture materials used during the study. Duration of hospital stay and age at operation do not influence the probability of recurrence. The operation gave consistently good results when performed by either a consultant surgeon or a surgeon in training. Using the Shouldice surgical technique the probability of recurrence of the inguinal hernia at 10 years is only 1 per cent.

The National Prostatectomy Audit: the clinical management of patients during hospital admission

OBJECTIVE

To determine everyday practice in the hospital management of men undergoing prostatectomy and the extent of its variation.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 5361 patients, who represented 89% of all those undergoing prostatic procedures in four health regions (Mersey, Wessex, Northern and South West Thames) and one test site (within Trent) were recruited by 103 (97%) surgeons. Clinical information was collected on a pre-coded data collection form which was completed during the hospital stay by the principal operator. Patient identification occurred at the time of surgery.

RESULTS

Important findings included: (i) both older men and those of higher social class were more likely to undergo prostatectomy with fewer symptoms; (ii) men who waited longer for surgery had worse symptoms by the time of their operation; (iii) there were unexplained differences in routine pre- and post-operative investigation and treatment. Half the men had their flow rate or residual urine measured as part of their pre-operative assessment. About half the men received prophylactic antibiotics; (iv) when large groups were analysed, a consistent proportion of men throughout the study (12%) were undergoing the operation for a second time. The clinical course of men having a repeat operation differed in many ways from those having a first time procedure; (v) the larger proportion of men (62%) had surgery for strong indications as opposed to symptoms alone; (vi) although most operations were performed by consultants, emergency admissions, though symptomatically more severe and sicker, were more likely to be operated on by trainee surgeons; (vii) significant variation in mean pre-operative symptom severity and bother scores were seen between surgeons.

CONCLUSION

The clinical management of prostatectomy has been defined in a large and representative UK sample. In some circumstances consistent variations have been identified. It is not yet clear whether these variations influence outcome. These data can be used by surgeons wishing to compare their own patient management with that described here.

The insertion of oesophagogastric tubes in malignant oesophageal strictures: endoscopy or surgery?

Oesophagogastric tubes were inserted into 16 patients with malignant strictures of the distal oesophagus by a method employing the flexible fibreoptic endoscope, and these patients were compared with 28 patients in the same hospital whose tubes were inserted by surgical methods. Four patients (25 per cent) in the endoscopic group died in the immediate post-insertion period as a result of the procedure, compared with 13 patients (45 per cent) in the surgical group. Of the remainder, the majority were mobilized and taking diet on the day following the procedure, and the morbidity associated with the surgical method was not seen in the endoscopic group. It is concluded that the endoscopic insertion of oesophagogastric tubes has advantages over surgical insertion in the palliation of malignant oesophageal strictures.

Presentation of midgut malrotation in adults

Images

Appropriate use of upper gastrointestinal endoscopy--a prospective audit. Steering Group of the Upper Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Audit Committee

Work by this group has shown that there is a wide range of opinion as to patients' suitability for endoscopy. In a recent study, 1297 questionnaires were sent to a random selection of doctors, including 350 general physicians, 400 surgeons, 477 gastroenterologists, and 70 general practitioners. The respondent was asked to indicate whether or not he would refer the patient described by each case vignette for endoscopy. Depending on the indication, the positive referral rate varied from 4.5% to 99% overall, and from 4.5% to 63.8% for all those clinical situations that the working party felt to be inappropriate. A second study examined the appropriateness of 400 consecutive cases referred from four units within one health region; these cases were judged independently, and without conferring, by a panel of seven gastroenterologists. The same cases were rated by software that incorporated American opinion (the Rand criteria). Although only 45 (11%) of the cases were classed as inappropriate by the British panel, 120 cases (31%) assessed by the American software were rated inappropriate. These differences occurred largely because in the USA it is recommended that one month's antiulcer treatment be tried before considering endoscopy for dyspepsia and thus many referrals were seen as inappropriate by the American database. Of the 45 cases found to be inappropriate by the British doctors no important abnormality was found at endoscopy; whereas of 120 cases judged inappropriate by the Rand criteria, three duodenal and two gastric ulcers, and one gastric cancer were diagnosed at gastroscopy. This study attempts a quantitative assessment of inappropriate use and serves to encourage further work to define appropriateness.

Short-stay surgery for inguinal hernia. Clinical outcome of the Shouldice operation

In 1970 a general surgical team on Teesside adopted the Shouldice operation for inguinal hernia together with a policy of short-stay surgery. Careful follow-up has established that repairs using the suture material of choice--stainless-steel wire--have an estimated 6-year recurrence-rate of 0.8%, statistically indistinguishable from that achieved by the highly specialised Shouldice Clinic. However, the recurrence-rate 2 years after suturing with an alternative polyester-based material is estimated at 8.1%--a figure much more in keeping with rates reported by general surgeons using traditional methods.

Development of cellular and humoral immunity in the respiratory tract of rabbits to Pseudomonas lipopolysaccharide

Immunization with Pseudomonas lipopolysaccharide induced both cellular and humoral immunity in rabbits, particularly in the respiratory tract after intranasal immunization. Either parenteral (i.m.) or intranasal immunization elicited an IgG antibody response in respiratory secretions, but only intranasal immunization produced secretory IgA antibody. Immunization by both routes stimulated serum IgM and IgG agglutinative antibodies. Because both methods of immunization produced skin test reactivity which had components of both Arthus and tuberculin-like reactions, cellular immunity was more readily assessed by the measurement of migration inhibitory factor (MIF) released from immune lymphocytes in respiratory and spleen cell suspensions after challenge with the lipopolysaccharide antigen. After intranasal vaccination, MIF activity was detected in the respiratory tract by direct assay; in contrast, i.m. immunized rabbits did not produce respiratory MIF. Both modes of immunization resulted in splenic MIF activity. However, lymphocytes were only capable of producing MIF for short periods after primary immunization had ended, apparently losing this function in about 2-3 wk. Therefore, it was concluded that cellular immunity by in vitro assay was transient after primary immunization with this Pseudomonas antigen in contrast to the more persistent humoral immunity. The biological significance of immune lymphocytes as part of the coordinated host defense of the lung needs further evaluation.

Experimental pneumonia due to Pseudomonas aeruginosa in leukopenic dogs: prolongation of survival by combined treatment with passive antibody to Pseudomonas and granulocyte transfusions

Treatment with type-specific IgG antibody to Pseudomonas aeruginosa significantly increased rates of survival after experimental induction of pseudomonas pneumonia in leukopenic dogs. Longer survival times were correlated with higher titers of circulating antibody in serum; however, no animals treated with antibody alone were long-term survivors. Subsequent development of sepsis or the recovery of Pseudomonas from infected lung tissue was not altered by treatment with antibody. Therapy with granulocyte transfusions plus gentamicin was associated with a 27% rate of long-term survival. Passive immunization with IgG (reciprocal mean hemagglutination titer, 52) in addition to granulocyte transfusions and treatment with gentamicin resulted in a rate of long-term survival of 67% (P less than 0.05). Dogs that died while receiving this combination therapy still had a survival time significantly longer than those of controls or animals treated only with granulocytes and antibiotic.

Length of stay for common surgical procedures: variation among districts

Lengths of stay for appendicectomy, inguinal hernia repair and cholecystectomy for the 16 districts in the Northern Regional Health Authority (NRHA) and 15 districts in the South East Thames Regional Health Authority (SETRHA) are examined using data recorded in the Hospital Activity Analysis. Considerable variations exist among districts, with the three longest stay districts for each procedure in NRHA having an age-adjusted length of stay of 113 per cent of the regional average for appendicectomy, 125 per cent for hernia and 115 per cent for cholecystectomy. This resulted in greater than 2000 additional bed days per year being occupied in the three longest stay districts in the NRHA compared with the regional average. The age adjusted length of stay for the three shortest stay districts for each procedure is 83 per cent of the regional average for appendicectomy, 75 per cent for hernia and 85 per cent for cholecystectomy. Similar differences are seen in the SETRHA, and derive from differences in the length of both preoperative and postoperative stay. Explanations for the observed variations are considered in terms of population, organizational and clinical variables.