Evolutionary algorithms and decision trees for predicting poor outcome after endovascular treatment for acute ischemic stroke

Despite the large overall beneficial effects of endovascular treatment in patients with acute ischemic stroke, severe disability or death still occurs in almost one-third of patients. These patients, who might not benefit from treatment, have been previously identified with traditional logistic regression models, which may oversimplify relations between characteristics and outcome, or machine learning techniques, which may be difficult to interpret. We developed and evaluated a novel evolutionary algorithm for fuzzy decision trees to accurately identify patients with poor outcome after endovascular treatment, which was defined as having a modified Rankin Scale score (mRS) higher or equal to 5. The created decision trees have the benefit of being comprehensible, easily interpretable models, making its predictions easy to explain to patients and practitioners. Insights in the reason for the predicted outcome can encourage acceptance and adaptation in practice and help manage expectations after treatment. We compared our proposed method to CART, the benchmark decision tree algorithm, on classification accuracy and interpretability. The fuzzy decision tree significantly outperformed CART: using 5-fold cross-validation with on average 1090 patients in the training set and 273 patients in the test set, the fuzzy decision tree misclassified on average 77 (standard deviation of 7) patients compared to 83 (±7) using CART. The mean number of nodes (decision and leaf nodes) in the fuzzy decision tree was 11 (±2) compared to 26 (±1) for CART decision trees. With an average accuracy of 72% and much fewer nodes than CART, the developed evolutionary algorithm for fuzzy decision trees might be used to gain insights into the predictive value of patient characteristics and can contribute to the development of more accurate medical outcome prediction methods with improved clarity for practitioners and patients.

Data-efficient deep learning of radiological image data for outcome prediction after endovascular treatment of patients with acute ischemic stroke

Treatment selection is becoming increasingly more important in acute ischemic stroke patient care. Clinical variables and radiological image biomarkers (old age, pre-stroke mRS, NIHSS, occlusion location, ASPECTS, among others) have an important role in treatment selection and prognosis. Radiological biomarkers require expert annotation and are subject to inter-observer variability. Recently, Deep Learning has been introduced to reproduce these radiological image biomarkers. Instead of reproducing these biomarkers, in this work, we investigated Deep Learning techniques for building models to directly predict good reperfusion after endovascular treatment (EVT) and good functional outcome using CT angiography images. These models do not require image annotation and are fast to compute. We compare the Deep Learning models to Machine Learning models using traditional radiological image biomarkers. We explored Residual Neural Network (ResNet) architectures, adapted them with Structured Receptive Fields (RFNN) and auto-encoders (AE) for network weight initialization. We further included model visualization techniques to provide insight into the network's decision-making process. We applied the methods on the MR CLEAN Registry dataset with 1301 patients. The Deep Learning models outperformed the models using traditional radiological image biomarkers in three out of four cross-validation folds for functional outcome (average AUC of 0.71) and for all folds for reperfusion (average AUC of 0.65). Model visualization showed that the arteries were relevant features for functional outcome prediction. The best results were obtained for the ResNet models with RFNN. Auto-encoder initialization often improved the results. We concluded that, in our dataset, automated image analysis with Deep Learning methods outperforms radiological image biomarkers for stroke outcome prediction and has the potential to improve treatment selection.