Etiologies and outcomes of cirrhosis in a large contemporary cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with liver cirrhosis have high mortality, often estimated by the Child-Pugh or MELD scores. Etiologies of cirrhosis are rapidly shifting, and it is unclear if these scores perform similarly across subgroups of patients. Here, we describe the characteristics and outcomes of a large contemporary cohort of patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

This was a cohort study with retrospectively collected data. All patients with a verified diagnosis of cirrhosis during 2004-2017 at the Karolinska University Hospital, Sweden, were identified. Data at baseline to calculate Child-Pugh, MELD and confounders for mortality was collected. Competing risk regression was used to estimate risk for outcomes, adjusted for age, sex, baseline Child-Pugh score, etiology of cirrhosis and type 2 diabetes.

RESULTS

We identified 2609 patients, with a median age of 61 years, and 68% men. Etiologies of cirrhosis shifted during the study period, with a -29% relative decrease in hepatitis C-cirrhosis and a + 154% increase in cirrhosis due to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. The highest overall mortality was seen in patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis. MELD and Child-Pugh scores predicted 3-month and 1 to 2-year mortality reasonably well, but with a lower predictive performance in alcohol-related cirrhosis. Men were more likely than women to receive a liver transplant (sHR = 1.39, 95%CI = 1.08-1.78).

CONCLUSIONS

We confirm previous findings of a rapid shift in the etiologies of cirrhosis. Differences in sex in regard to access to liver transplantation deserve further attention.

Interactions between the metabolic syndrome and alcohol consumption increases the risk of liver disease

Alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD, recently renamed metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease [MASLD]) share many features, including certain pathophysiological mechanisms, susceptibility genes, and histological lesions. However, the natural history of the two diseases, studied separately, is significantly different, with ALD being associated with a higher risk of cirrhosis and liver-related mortality. Moreover, evidence suggests an interactive effect between ALD and metabolic risk factors that are associated with NAFLD on the risk of progressive fibrosis and development of cirrhosis. Patients with both a high consumption of alcohol and metabolic risk factors, such as obesity or diabetes, should therefore be considered a particularly high-risk group for cirrhosis. Additional studies regarding the efficacy of screening for advanced liver fibrosis or cirrhosis in these risk groups are needed. The most effective and established method for reducing the risk of progression in ALD is alcohol abstinence, whereas weight loss is effective in NAFLD. In this narrative review, we introduce the reader to the literature of the field and present key studies showing this interactive effect.

Serum levels of endotrophin are associated with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

There are no currently available biomarkers that can accurately indicate the presence of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). We investigated the association between endotrophin, a cleavage product of collagen type 6α3, and disease severity in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

METHODS

We measured serum endotrophin levels in 211 patients with NAFLD and nine healthy controls. Liver biopsy data was available for 141 (67%) of the patients. Associations between endotrophin and the presence of NASH and advanced fibrosis were investigated alone and in combination with standard clinical parameters using logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 211 patients were enrolled in this study, consisting of 108 (51%) men and 103 (49%) women with a mean age of 55.6 years. 58 (27%) of the patients had advanced fibrosis. Of those with biopsy data, 87 (62%) had NASH. Serum levels of endotrophin were significantly higher in patients with NAFLD than those in healthy controls (37[±12] vs. 17[±7] ng/mL, p<.001). Serum levels of endotrophin were also significantly higher in patients with NASH than in those without NASH (40[±12] vs. 32[±13] ng/mL, p<.001). A model using age, sex, body mass index and levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT), glucose and endotrophin effectively predicted the presence of NASH in a derivation (AUROC 0.83, 95%CI = 0.74-0.92) and validation cohort (AUROC 0.71, 95%CI = 0.54-0.88). There was no significant association between serum levels of endotrophin and advanced fibrosis.

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest that serum endotrophin could be a valuable biomarker for diagnosing NASH, but not for detecting advanced fibrosis in NAFLD.

[Diagnostic imaging no answer in the diagnosis of appendicitis]

Diagnostic errors in 49 patients with appendicitis handled by the Swedish Health and Social Care Inspectorate were analyzed. Diagnostic errors were more common in young or old patients, and among patients with atypical symptoms. Adjunct diagnostic tools, such as computerized tomography and/or ultrasound examination, also have limitations as regards diagnostic precision, and should therefore not be seen as golden standard. Increased individual knowledge, and not systems factors or safety culture, appears to be a suitable remedy against diagnostic errors.

Natural history and progression of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease

The natural history of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), previously referred to as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), is complex and long. A minority of patients develop inflammation and risk progressive fibrosis that can result in cirrhosis. Progression to cirrhosis occurs in 3-5% of patients and often takes more than 20 years. This narrative review presents an update on the natural history of MASLD, discussing studies and risk estimates for progression to severe outcomes, such as decompensated cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma. We highlight the dynamic progression of liver damage, how to identify patients whose disease progresses over time, and how risk factors might be mitigated to reduce the risk for disease progression.

Liver stiffness predicts progression to liver-related events in patients with chronic liver disease - A cohort study of 14 414 patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) is a non-invasive diagnostic biomarker of liver fibrosis. It is uncertain if LSM can predict risk for future liver-related outcomes in large, heterogenous populations.

METHODS

This Swedish multi-centre cohort study included patients (n = 14 414) from 16 sites who underwent LSM by VCTE between 2008 and 2020. Outcomes were ascertained from national registers. We investigated progression to cirrhosis with portal hypertension or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), separately. Cox regression was used to obtain hazard ratios (HRs). Harrel's C-index was used to measure discrimination of VCTE.

RESULTS

Included patients had a median age of 46 (interquartile range 34-57), median LSM of 5.9 kPa (4.6-8.0), 59% were male, and the majority had hepatitis C (50.1%). During a median follow-up of 5.9 (4.3-8.0) years, 402 patients (2.7%) developed cirrhosis with portal hypertension. In patients with an LSM ≥25 kPa, 28.7% developed cirrhosis with portal hypertension within 5 years of follow-up, while only .6% of patients with an LSM <10 kPa did. This translated to a HR of 48.3 (95% confidence interval = 37.6-62.0). VCTE had a high discriminative ability, with C-indices above .80 for most liver diseases, including .82 for MASLD. Similar findings were seen for incident HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased LSM by VCTE was associated with an increased risk of progression to both cirrhosis with portal hypertension, and to HCC, and had a high discriminative ability across different aetiologies of chronic liver diseases. These results support the use of VCTE to guide follow-up and treatment decisions.

Performance of novel collagen turnover biomarkers to detect increased liver stiffness in MASLD

BACKGROUND

Cleavage products from collagen formation and degradation hold potential as first-line biomarkers for the risk of advanced fibrosis in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). Here, we evaluated the performance of PRO-C3, PRO-C6, C4M, PRO-C18L, and the clinical score ADAPT (age, diabetes, PRO-C3, and platelet count) to detect patients with an LSM >8 kPa or >12 kPa in comparison to the Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4).

METHODS

Serum from patients with MASLD (n = 269) from six Swedish University Hospitals was analyzed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay-based methods. Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography was performed. The area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, and net benefit analysis were used.

RESULTS

An LSM >8 kPa was found in 108 (40.1%) patients. PRO-C3, PRO-C6, C4M, and PRO-C18L had AUCs ranging from 0.48 to 0.62. ADAPT had the highest AUC (0.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.67-0.79) to detect patients >8 kPa, compared to FIB-4 (0.71, (95%CI = 0.64-0.77, p = 0.35), and had a higher net benefit compared to FIB-4 from a probability threshold of 15%. FIB-4 and ADAPT performed equally well to detect patients with an LSM >12 kPa, AUC 0.76 versus 0.76, p = 0.93.

CONCLUSIONS

ADAPT seems to be marginally better than FIB-4 in identifying patients with an LSM >8 kPa. However, the clinical utility of ADAPT as a first line test is uncertain, especially in low-risk populations. The overall performance of FIB-4 was similar to that of ADAPT in detecting patients with an LSM of >12 kPa. Altogether, the results suggest that ADAPT might be useful to detect earlier stages of fibrosis in MASLD, but that FIB-4 remains a first-line test for advanced fibrosis.