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Mizuno T, Ohnishi T, Hisano R, Iyetomi H, Watanabe T. Preface of Special Issue on Data Science Questing for a Better Society. Rev Socionetwork Strat 2022; 16:333-335. [PMID: 36159390 PMCID: PMC9484341 DOI: 10.1007/s12626-022-00124-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/03/2022]
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Iyetomi H, Aoyama H, Fujiwara Y, Souma W, Vodenska I, Yoshikawa H. Relationship between Macroeconomic Indicators and Economic Cycles in U.S. Sci Rep 2020; 10:8420. [PMID: 32439848 PMCID: PMC7242465 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-65002-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/14/2020] [Accepted: 04/26/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
We analyze monthly time series of 57 US macroeconomic indicators (18 leading, 30 coincidental, and 9 lagging) and 5 other trade/money indexes. Using novel methods, we confirm statistically significant co-movements among these time series and identify noteworthy economic events. The methods we use are Complex Hilbert Principal Component Analysis (CHPCA) and Rotational Random Shuffling (RRS). We obtain significant complex correlations among the US economic indicators with leads/lags. We then use the Hodge decomposition to obtain the hierarchical order of each time series. The Hodge potential allows us to better understand the lead/lag relationships. Using both CHPCA and Hodge decomposition approaches, we obtain a new lead/lag order of the macroeconomic indicators and perform clustering analysis for positively serially correlated positive and negative changes of the analyzed indicators. We identify collective negative co-movements around the Dot.com bubble in 2001 as well as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in October 2008. We also identify important events such as the Hurricane Katrina in August 2005 and the Oil Price Crisis in July 2008. Additionally, we demonstrate that some coincidental and lagging indicators actually show leading indicator characteristics. This suggests that there is a room for existing indicators to be improved.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hiroshi Iyetomi
- Niigata University, Department of Mathematics, Niigata, 950-2181, Japan.
| | - Hideaki Aoyama
- Kyoto University, GSAIS, Kyoto, 606-8502, Japan.,Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI), Tokyo, 100-8901, Japan.,University of Hyogo, Graduate School of Simulation Studies, Kobe, 650-0047, Japan
| | - Yoshi Fujiwara
- University of Hyogo, Graduate School of Simulation Studies, Kobe, 650-0047, Japan
| | - Wataru Souma
- Nihon University, College of Science and Technology, Funabashi, 274-8501, Japan
| | - Irena Vodenska
- Boston University, Metropolitan College, Boston, MA, 02215, USA
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Kichikawa Y, Iyetomi H, Aoyama H, Fujiwara Y, Yoshikawa H. Interindustry linkages of prices-Analysis of Japan's deflation. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0228026. [PMID: 32053604 PMCID: PMC7018021 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0228026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2019] [Accepted: 01/06/2020] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The interactions among macroprices with leads and lags play a significant role in explaining the behavior of an aggregate price index. Thus, to understand inflation and deflation, it is essential to explore the mechanism according to which these macroprices interact with each other. On the basis of a new method, we show that, irrespective of the sources of shocks, a robust flow of changes occurs in domestic prices from upstream to downstream. Moreover, we demonstrate that macroprices change in clusters, and we identify these clusters. Firms are not symmetric. Overall, our analysis suggests that the inertia arising from input/output linkages in production explains the behavior of aggregate prices.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Hiroshi Iyetomi
- Department of Mathematics, Niigata University, Niigata, Japan
| | - Hideaki Aoyama
- GSAIS, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
- RIETI, Tokyo, Japan
- Graduate School of Simulations, University of Hyogo, Kobe, Japan
- * E-mail:
| | - Yoshi Fujiwara
- Graduate School of Simulations, University of Hyogo, Kobe, Japan
| | - Hiroshi Yoshikawa
- RIETI, Tokyo, Japan
- Faculty of Economics, Rissho University, Tokyo, Japan
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Chakraborty A, Kichikawa Y, Iino T, Iyetomi H, Inoue H, Fujiwara Y, Aoyama H. Hierarchical communities in the walnut structure of the Japanese production network. PLoS One 2018; 13:e0202739. [PMID: 30157210 PMCID: PMC6114793 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0202739] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/20/2018] [Accepted: 08/07/2018] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
This paper studies the structure of the Japanese production network, which includes one million firms and five million supplier-customer links. This study finds that this network forms a tightly-knit structure with a core giant strongly connected component (GSCC) surrounded by IN and OUT components constituting two half-shells of the GSCC, which we call awalnut structure because of its shape. The hierarchical structure of the communities is studied by the Infomap method, and most of the irreducible communities are found to be at the second level. The composition of some of the major communities, including overexpressions regarding their industrial or regional nature, and the connections that exist between the communities are studied in detail. The findings obtained here cause us to question the validity and accuracy of using the conventional input-output analysis, which is expected to be useful when firms in the same sectors are highly connected to each other.
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Affiliation(s)
- Abhijit Chakraborty
- Graduate School of Simulation Studies, The University of Hyogo, Kobe, Japan
- * E-mail:
| | | | - Takashi Iino
- Faculty of Science, Niigata University, Niigata, Japan
| | | | - Hiroyasu Inoue
- Graduate School of Simulation Studies, The University of Hyogo, Kobe, Japan
| | - Yoshi Fujiwara
- Graduate School of Simulation Studies, The University of Hyogo, Kobe, Japan
| | - Hideaki Aoyama
- Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
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Marotta L, Miccichè S, Fujiwara Y, Iyetomi H, Aoyama H, Gallegati M, Mantegna RN. Bank-firm credit network in Japan: an analysis of a bipartite network. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0123079. [PMID: 25933413 PMCID: PMC4416770 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0123079] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/04/2014] [Accepted: 02/27/2015] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
We investigate the networked nature of the Japanese credit market. Our investigation is performed with tools of network science. In our investigation we perform community detection with an algorithm which is identifying communities composed of both banks and firms. We show that the communities obtained by directly working on the bipartite network carry information about the networked nature of the Japanese credit market. Our analysis is performed for each calendar year during the time period from 1980 to 2011. To investigate the time evolution of the networked structure of the credit market we introduce a new statistical method to track the time evolution of detected communities. We then characterize the time evolution of communities by detecting for each time evolving set of communities the over-expression of attributes of firms and banks. Specifically, we consider as attributes the economic sector and the geographical location of firms and the type of banks. In our 32-year-long analysis we detect a persistence of the over-expression of attributes of communities of banks and firms together with a slow dynamic of changes from some specific attributes to new ones. Our empirical observations show that the credit market in Japan is a networked market where the type of banks, geographical location of firms and banks, and economic sector of the firm play a role in shaping the credit relationships between banks and firms.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luca Marotta
- Dipartimento di Fisica e Chimica, Università di Palermo, Palermo, Italy
| | | | - Yoshi Fujiwara
- Graduate School of Simulation Studies, The University of Hyogo, Kobe, Japan
| | - Hiroshi Iyetomi
- Department of Mathematics, Niigata University, Niigata, Japan
| | - Hideaki Aoyama
- Graduate School of Sciences, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Mauro Gallegati
- Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali, Università Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona, Italy
| | - Rosario N. Mantegna
- Dipartimento di Fisica e Chimica, Università di Palermo, Palermo, Italy
- Center for Network Science and Department of Economics, Central European University, Budapest, Hungary
- * E-mail:
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Iyetomi H, Nakayama Y, Aoyama H, Fujiwara Y, Ikeda Y, Souma W. Fluctuation-dissipation theory of input-output interindustrial relations. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys 2011; 83:016103. [PMID: 21405740 DOI: 10.1103/physreve.83.016103] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2010] [Revised: 10/26/2010] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
In this study, the fluctuation-dissipation theory is invoked to shed light on input-output interindustrial relations at a macroscopic level by its application to indices of industrial production (IIP) data for Japan. Statistical noise arising from finiteness of the time series data is carefully removed by making use of the random matrix theory in an eigenvalue analysis of the correlation matrix; as a result, two dominant eigenmodes are detected. Our previous study successfully used these two modes to demonstrate the existence of intrinsic business cycles. Here a correlation matrix constructed from the two modes describes genuine interindustrial correlations in a statistically meaningful way. Furthermore, it enables us to quantitatively discuss the relationship between shipments of final demand goods and production of intermediate goods in a linear response framework. We also investigate distinctive external stimuli for the Japanese economy exerted by the current global economic crisis. These stimuli are derived from residuals of moving-average fluctuations of the IIP remaining after subtracting the long-period components arising from inherent business cycles. The observation reveals that the fluctuation-dissipation theory is applicable to an economic system that is supposed to be far from physical equilibrium.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hiroshi Iyetomi
- Department of Physics, Niigata University, Ikarashi, Niigata 950-2181, Japan.
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Iyetomi H, Ichimaru S. Density-functional study of antiferromagnetic spin correlations in layered electrons: Conductive spin-density-wave states. Phys Rev B Condens Matter 1994; 49:11900-11909. [PMID: 10010062 DOI: 10.1103/physrevb.49.11900] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/12/2023]
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Ogata S, Iyetomi H, Ichimaru S. Equations of state and phase diagrams for dense multi-ionic mixture plasmas. Phys Rev E Stat Phys Plasmas Fluids Relat Interdiscip Topics 1993; 48:1344-1358. [PMID: 9960720 DOI: 10.1103/physreve.48.1344] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
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Iyetomi H, Ogata S, Ichimaru S. Quantum Monte Carlo simulation study of free energies and melting transitions in Coulomb solids. Phys Rev B Condens Matter 1993; 47:11703-11711. [PMID: 10005337 DOI: 10.1103/physrevb.47.11703] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/12/2023]
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Iyetomi H, Ogata S, Ichimaru S. Bridge functions and improvement on the hypernetted-chain approximation for classical one-component plasmas. Phys Rev A 1992; 46:1051-1058. [PMID: 9908209 DOI: 10.1103/physreva.46.1051] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
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Iyetomi H, Vashishta P, Kalia RK. Integral-equation approach to medium-range order in molten and glassy chalcogenides. Phys Rev B Condens Matter 1991; 43:1726-1734. [PMID: 9997424 DOI: 10.1103/physrevb.43.1726] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/12/2023]
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Iyetomi H, Vashishta P. Generalization of the density-functional theory with application to three-body interactions in classical fluids. Phys Rev A Gen Phys 1989; 40:305-310. [PMID: 9901894 DOI: 10.1103/physreva.40.305] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
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Iyetomi H, Ogata S, Ichimaru S. Thermodynamic functions, freezing transition, and phase diagram of dense carbon-oxygen mixtures in white dwarfs. Phys Rev B Condens Matter 1989; 40:309-315. [PMID: 9990916 DOI: 10.1103/physrevb.40.309] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/12/2023]
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Iyetomi H, Ichimaru S. Nonlinear density-functional approach to the crystallization of the classical one-component plasma. Phys Rev B Condens Matter 1988; 38:6761-6765. [PMID: 9945354 DOI: 10.1103/physrevb.38.6761] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/11/2023]
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Iyetomi H, Ichimaru S. Miscibility of ionized iron atoms in hydrogen plasmas under the solar interior conditions. Phys Rev A Gen Phys 1986; 34:3203-3209. [PMID: 9897638 DOI: 10.1103/physreva.34.3203] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
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Iyetomi H, Ichimaru S. Free energies of electron-screened ion plasmas in the hypernetted-chain approximation. Phys Rev A Gen Phys 1986; 34:433-439. [PMID: 9897267 DOI: 10.1103/physreva.34.433] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
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Iyetomi H. Hypernetted Chain Approximation, Convolution Approximation and Perfect Screening in Coulombic Many-Particle System. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1984. [DOI: 10.1143/ptp.71.427] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
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