Long-term yield of pancreatic cancer surveillance in high-risk individuals

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to determine the long-term yield of pancreatic cancer surveillance in hereditary predisposed high-risk individuals.

DESIGN

From 2006 to 2019, we prospectively enrolled asymptomatic individuals with an estimated 10% or greater lifetime risk of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) after obligatory evaluation by a clinical geneticist and genetic testing, and subjected them to annual surveillance with both endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) and MRI/cholangiopancreatography (MRI/MRCP) at each visit.

RESULTS

366 individuals (201 mutation-negative familial pancreatic cancer (FPC) kindreds and 165 PDAC susceptibility gene mutation carriers; mean age 54 years, SD 9.9) were followed for 63 months on average (SD 43.2). Ten individuals developed PDAC, of which four presented with a symptomatic interval carcinoma and six underwent resection. The cumulative PDAC incidence was 9.3% in the mutation carriers and 0% in the FPC kindreds (p<0.001). Median PDAC survival was 18 months (range 1-32). Surgery was performed in 17 individuals (4.6%), whose pathology revealed 6 PDACs (3 T1N0M0), 7 low-grade precursor lesions, 2 neuroendocrine tumours <2 cm, 1 autoimmune pancreatitis and in 1 individual no abnormality. There was no surgery-related mortality. EUS detected more solid lesions than MRI/MRCP (100% vs 22%, p<0.001), but less cystic lesions (42% vs 83%, p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

The diagnostic yield of PDAC was substantial in established high-risk mutation carriers, but non-existent in the mutation-negative proven FPC kindreds. Nevertheless, timely identification of resectable lesions proved challenging despite the concurrent use of two imaging modalities, with EUS outperforming MRI/MRCP. Overall, surveillance by imaging yields suboptimal results with a clear need for more sensitive diagnostic markers, including biomarkers.

Timeline of Development of Pancreatic Cancer and Implications for Successful Early Detection in High-Risk Individuals

BACKGROUND & AIMS

To successfully implement imaging-based pancreatic cancer (PC) surveillance, understanding the timeline and morphologic features of neoplastic progression is key. We aimed to investigate the progression to neoplasia from serial prediagnostic pancreatic imaging tests in high-risk individuals and identify factors associated with successful early detection.

METHODS

We retrospectively examined the development of pancreatic abnormalities in high-risk individuals who were diagnosed with PC or underwent pancreatic surgery, or both, in 16 international surveillance programs.

RESULTS

Of 2552 high-risk individuals under surveillance, 28 (1%) developed neoplastic progression to PC or high-grade dysplasia during a median follow-up of 29 months after baseline (interquartile range [IQR], 40 months). Of these, 13 of 28 (46%) presented with a new lesion (median size, 15 mm; range 7-57 mm), a median of 11 months (IQR, 8; range 3-17 months) after a prior examination, by which time 10 of 13 (77%) had progressed beyond the pancreas. The remaining 15 of 28 (54%) had neoplastic progression in a previously detected lesion (12 originally cystic, 2 indeterminate, 1 solid), and 11 (73%) had PC progressed beyond the pancreas. The 12 patients with cysts had been monitored for 21 months (IQR, 15 months) and had a median growth of 5 mm/y (IQR, 8 mm/y). Successful early detection (as high-grade dysplasia or PC confined to the pancreas) was associated with resection of cystic lesions (vs solid or indeterminate lesions (odds ratio, 5.388; 95% confidence interval, 1.525-19.029) and small lesions (odds ratio, 0.890/mm; 95% confidence interval 0.812-0.976/mm).

CONCLUSIONS

In nearly half of high-risk individuals developing high-grade dysplasia or PC, no prior lesions are detected by imaging, yet they present at an advanced stage. Progression can occur before the next scheduled annual examination. More sensitive diagnostic tools or a different management strategy for rapidly growing cysts are needed.

Identifying key factors for the effectiveness of pancreatic cancer screening: A model-based analysis

Pancreatic cancer (PC) survival is poor, as detection usually occurs late, when treatment options are limited. Screening of high‐risk individuals may enable early detection and a more favorable prognosis. Knowledge gaps prohibit establishing the effectiveness of screening. We developed a Microsimulation Screening Analysis model to analyze the impact of relevant uncertainties on the effect of PC screening in high‐risk individuals. The model simulates two base cases: one in which lesions always progress to PC and one in which indolent and faster progressive lesions coexist. For each base case, the effect of annual and 5‐yearly screening with endoscopic ultrasonography/magnetic resonance imaging was evaluated. The impact of variance in PC risk, screening test characteristics and surgery‐related mortality was evaluated using sensitivity analyses. Screening resulted in a reduction of PC mortality by at least 16% in all simulated scenarios. This reduction depended strongly on the natural disease course (annual screening: −57% for “Progressive‐only” vs −41% for “Indolent Included”). The number of screen and surveillance tests needed to prevent one cancer death was impacted most by PC risk. A 10% increase in test sensitivity reduced mortality by 1.9% at most. Test specificity is important for the number of surveillance tests. In conclusion, screening reduces PC mortality in all modeled scenarios. The natural disease course and PC risk strongly determines the effectiveness of screening. Test sensitivity seems of lesser influence than specificity. Future research should gain more insight in PC pathobiology to establish the true value of PC screening in high‐risk individuals.

What's new?

About 10 percent of pancreatic cancers occur in individuals with inherited risk factors. While screening such high‐risk individuals can facilitate the detection of precursor lesions and early‐stage cancer, the extent to which benefits outweigh harms, including overdiagnosis, remains unknown. Here, using a microsimulation model, the authors explored uncertainties concerning the early detection of pancreatic cancer and analyzed the impact of these uncertainties on the effect of screening. In all simulated scenarios, screening was associated with reduced pancreatic cancer mortality. The effectiveness of screening was most strongly impacted by characteristics of natural disease course and level of pancreatic cancer risk

Patient-reported burden of intensified surveillance and surgery in high-risk individuals under pancreatic cancer surveillance

In high-risk individuals participating in a pancreatic cancer surveillance program, worrisome features warrant for intensified surveillance or, occasionally, surgery. Our objectives were to determine the patient-reported burden of intensified surveillance and/or surgery, and to assess post-operative quality of life and opinion of surgery. Participants in our pancreatic cancer surveillance program completed questionnaires including the Cancer Worry Scale (CWS) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). For individuals who underwent intensified surveillance, questionnaires before, during, and ≥ 3 weeks after were analyzed. In addition, subjects who underwent intensified surveillance in the past 3 years or underwent surgery at any time, were invited for an interview, that included the Short-Form 12 (SF-12). A total of 31 high-risk individuals were studied. During the intensified surveillance period, median CWS scores were higher (14, IQR 7), as compared to before (12, IQR 9, P = 0.007) and after (11, IQR 7, P = 0.014), but eventually returned back to baseline (P = 0.823). Median HADS scores were low: 5 (IQR 6) for anxiety and 3 (IQR 5) for depression, and they were unaffected by the intensified surveillance period. Of the 10 operated patients, 1 (10%) developed diabetes and 7 (70%) pancreatic exocrine insufficiency. The interviews yielded median quality-of-life scores comparable to the general population. Also, after surgery, patients’ attitudes towards surveillance were unchanged (5/10, 50%) or became more positive (4/10, 40%). Although patients were aware of the (sometimes benign) pathological outcome, when asked if surgery had been justified, only 20% (2/10) disagreed, and all would again have chosen to undergo surgery. In conclusion, in individuals at high risk for pancreatic cancer, intensified surveillance temporarily increased cancer worries, without affecting general anxiety or depression. Although pancreatic surgery led to substantial co-morbidity, quality of life was similar to the general population, and surgery did not negatively affect the attitude towards surveillance.

Surveillance for pancreatic cancer in high-risk individuals

Background

Surveillance of individuals at high risk of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and its precursors might lead to better outcomes. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and outcomes of PDAC and high-risk neoplastic precursor lesions among such patients participating in surveillance programmes.

Methods

A multicentre study was conducted through the International CAncer of the Pancreas Screening (CAPS) Consortium Registry to identify high-risk individuals who had undergone pancreatic resection or progressed to advanced PDAC while under surveillance. High-risk neoplastic precursor lesions were defined as: pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PanIN) 3, intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasia (IPMN) with high-grade dysplasia, and pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours at least 2 cm in diameter.

Results

Of 76 high-risk individuals identified in 11 surveillance programmes, 71 had undergone surgery and five had been diagnosed with inoperable PDAC. Of the 71 patients who underwent resection, 32 (45 per cent) had PDAC or a high-risk precursor (19 PDAC, 4 main-duct IPMN, 4 branch-duct IPMN, 5 PanIN-3); the other 39 patients had lesions thought to be associated with a lower risk of neoplastic progression. Age at least 65 years, female sex, carriage of a gene mutation and location of a lesion in the head/uncinate region were associated with high-risk precursor lesions or PDAC. The survival of high-risk individuals with low-risk neoplastic lesions did not differ from that in those with high-risk precursor lesions. Survival was worse among patients with PDAC. There was no surgery-related mortality.

Conclusion

A high proportion of high-risk individuals who had surgical resection for screening- or surveillance-detected pancreatic lesions had a high-risk neoplastic precursor lesion or PDAC at the time of surgery. Survival was better in high-risk individuals who had either low- or high-risk neoplastic precursor lesions compared with that in patients who developed PDAC.

Factors associated with cancer worries in individuals participating in annual pancreatic cancer surveillance

It is important to adequately and timely identify individuals with cancer worries amongst participants in a pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) surveillance program, because they could benefit from psychosocial support to decrease distress. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess both psychosocial and clinical factors associated with cancer worries. High-risk individuals participating in PDAC-surveillance were invited to annually complete a cancer worry scale (CWS) questionnaire which was sent after counseling by the clinical geneticist (T0), after intake for participation in PDAC-surveillance (T1), and then annually after every MRI and endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) (T2 and further). Analyses were performed to identify factors associated with cancer worries in the second year of surveillance (T3). We found a significant intra-individual decrease in cancer worries (β = −0.84, P < 0.001), nevertheless, 33 % of individuals had a CWS-score ≥14 at T3. We found one factor significantly associated with cancer worries at T3: having a family member affected by PDAC <50 years of age (β = 0.22, P = 0.03). The detection of a cystic lesion, a shortened surveillance interval, or undergoing pancreatic surgery did not lead to more cancer worries (P = 0.163, P = 0.33, and P = 0.53, respectively). In conclusion, this study identified ‘a family history of PDAC <50 years of age’ as the only predictor of cancer worries experienced after 2 years of surveillance in individuals at high risk of developing PDAC. This knowledge could help clinicians to timely identify individuals ‘at risk’ for high levels of cancer worries who would likely benefit from psychosocial support.

A multicentre comparative prospective blinded analysis of EUS and MRI for screening of pancreatic cancer in high-risk individuals

OBJECTIVE

Endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) and MRI are promising tests to detect precursors and early-stage pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) in high-risk individuals (HRIs). It is unclear which screening technique is to be preferred. We aimed to compare the efficacy of EUS and MRI in their ability to detect clinically relevant lesions in HRI.

DESIGN

Multicentre prospective study. The results of 139 asymptomatic HRI (>10-fold increased risk) undergoing first-time screening by EUS and MRI are described. Clinically relevant lesions were defined as solid lesions, main duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms and cysts ≥10 mm. Results were compared in a blinded, independent fashion.

RESULTS

Two solid lesions (mean size 9 mm) and nine cysts ≥10 mm (mean size 17 mm) were detected in nine HRI (6%). Both solid lesions were detected by EUS only and proved to be a stage I PDAC and a multifocal pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia 2. Of the nine cysts ≥10 mm, six were detected by both imaging techniques and three were detected by MRI only. The agreement between EUS and MRI for the detection of clinically relevant lesions was 55%. Of these clinically relevant lesions detected by both techniques, there was a good agreement for location and size.

CONCLUSIONS

EUS and/or MRI detected clinically relevant pancreatic lesions in 6% of HRI. Both imaging techniques were complementary rather than interchangeable: contrary to EUS, MRI was found to be very sensitive for the detection of cystic lesions of any size; MRI, however, might have some important limitations with regard to the timely detection of solid lesions.

Repeated participation in pancreatic cancer surveillance by high-risk individuals imposes low psychological burden

BACKGROUND

When assessing the feasibility of surveillance for pancreatic cancer (PC), it is important to address its psychological burden. The aim of this ongoing study is to evaluate the psychological burden of annual pancreatic surveillance for individuals at high risk to develop PC.

METHODS

This is a multicenter prospective study. High-risk individuals who undergo annual pancreatic surveillance with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) were invited to complete questionnaires to assess motivations for participating in surveillance, experiences with participation, perceived PC risk, topics of concern, and psychological distress. Questionnaires were sent after intake for participation (T1), after the first MRI and EUS (T2), and after the MRI and EUS 1 (T3), 2 (T4), and 3 years (T5) after first surveillance.

RESULTS

In total, 140 out of 152 individuals returned one or more of the questionnaires (response 92%); 477 questionnaires were analyzed. The most frequently reported motivation for participating in surveillance was the possible early detection of (a precursor stage of) cancer (95-100%). Only a minority of respondents experienced MRI and EUS as uncomfortable (10% and 11%, respectively), and respondents dreaded their next EUS investigation less as surveillance progressed. Respondents' cancer worries decreased significantly over time, and both their anxiety and depression scores remained stable and low over the 3-year period of follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

The psychological burden of pancreatic surveillance is low at all assessments. Therefore, from a psychological point of view, participation of high-risk individuals in an annual pancreatic surveillance program is feasible.Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Pancreatic cancer-associated gene polymorphisms in a nation-wide cohort of p16-Leiden germline mutation carriers; a case-control study

Background

The p16-Leiden founder mutation in the CDKN2A gene is the most common cause of Familial Atypical Multiple Mole Melanoma (FAMMM) syndrome in the Netherlands. Individuals with this mutation are at increased risk for developing melanoma of the skin, as well as pancreatic cancer. However, there is a notable interfamilial variability in the occurrence of pancreatic cancer among p16-Leiden families. We aimed to test whether previously identified genetic risk factors for pancreatic cancer modify the risk for pancreatic cancer in p16-Leiden germline mutation carriers.

Methods

Seven pancreatic cancer-associated SNPs were selected from the literature and were genotyped in a cohort of 185 p16-Leiden germline mutation carriers from 88 families, including 50 cases (median age 55 years) with pancreatic cancer and 135 controls (median age 64 years) without pancreatic cancer. Allelic odds ratios per SNP were calculated.

Results

No significant association with pancreatic cancer was found for any of the seven SNPs.

Conclusions

Since genetic modifiers for developing melanoma have already been identified in CDKN2A mutation carriers, this study does not exclude that genetic modifiers do not play a role in the individual pancreatic cancer risk in this cohort of p16-Leiden germline mutation carriers. The search for these modifiers should therefore continue, because they can potentially facilitate more targeted pancreatic surveillance programs.