Effectiveness of Seizure Dogs for People With Severe Refractory Epilepsy: Results From the EPISODE Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to evaluate whether people living with severe medically refractory epilepsy (PSRE) benefit from a seizure dog.

METHODS

An individual-level stepped-wedge randomized controlled trial was conducted. The study was conducted in the Netherlands among adults with daily to weekly seizures. All participants were included simultaneously (on June 1, 2019) while receiving usual care. Then, during the 36-month follow-up, they received a seizure dog in a randomized sequence. Participants kept a seizure diary and completed 3-monthly surveys. Seizure frequency was the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes included seizure-free days, seizure severity, health-related quality of life (HRQoL), and well-being. Data were analyzed using generalized linear mixed modeling (GLMM). The models assumed a delayed intervention effect, starting when the seizure dog reached an advanced stage of training. Effects were calculated as changes per 28-day period with the intervention.

RESULTS

Data were collected from 25 participants, of whom 20 crossed over to the intervention condition. The median follow-up was 19 months with usual care and 12 months with the intervention. On average, participants experienced 115 (SD 164) seizures per 28-day period in the usual care condition and 73 (SD 131) seizures in the intervention condition. Seven participants achieved a reduction of 50% or more at the end of follow-up. GLMM indicated a 3.1% decrease in seizure frequency for each consecutive 28-day period with the intervention (0.969, 95% CI 0.960-0.977). Furthermore, an increase in the number of seizure-free days was observed (1.012, 95% CI 1.009, 1.015), but no effect on seizure severity measured with the NHS3. Generic HRQoL scores improved, as reflected in the decrease in EQ-5D-5L utility decrement (0.975, 95% CI 0.954-0.997). Smaller improvements were observed on overall self-rated HRQoL, epilepsy-specific HRQoL, and well-being, measured with the EQ VAS, QOLIE-31-P, and ICECAP-A, respectively.

DISCUSSION

Seizure dogs reduce seizure frequency, increase the number of seizure-free days, and improve the quality of life of PSRE. The magnitude of the effect on generic HRQoL indicates that seizure dogs benefit PSRE beyond the impact on seizure frequency alone. Early discontinuation of seizure dog partnerships suggests that this intervention is not suitable for all PSRE and requires further study.

TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION

This study was registered in the Dutch Trial Register (NL6682) on November 28, 2017. Participants were enrolled on June 1, 2019.

CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE

This study provides Class III evidence that seizure dogs are associated with a decrease in seizure frequency in adult patients with medically refractory epilepsy.

A blueprint for health technology assessment capacity building: lessons learned from Malta

OBJECTIVES

The development and strengthening of health technology assessment (HTA) capacity on the individual and organizational level and the wider environment is relevant for cooperation on HTAs. Based on the Maltese case, we provide a blueprint for building HTA capacity.

METHODS

A set of activities were developed based on Pichler et al.'s framework and the starting HTA capacity in Malta. Individual level activities focused on strengthening epidemiological and health economic skills through online and in-person training. On the organizational level, a new HTA framework was developed which was subsequently utilized in a shadow assessment. Awareness campaign activities raised awareness and support in the wider environment where HTAs are conducted and utilized.

RESULTS

The time needed to build HTA capacity exceeded the planned two years accommodating the learning progress of the assessors. In addition to the planned trainings, webinars supplemented the online courses, allowing for more knowledge exchange. The advanced online course was extended over time to facilitate learning next to the assessors' daily tasks. Training sessions were added to implement the new economic evaluation framework, which was utilized in a second shadow assessment. Awareness by decision-makers was achieved with reports, posters, and an article on the current and developing HTA capacity.

CONCLUSIONS

It takes time and much (hands-on) training to build skills for conducting complex assessment such as HTAs. Facilitating exchange with knowledgeable parties is crucial for succeeding as well as the buy-in of local managers motivating staff. Decision-makers need to be on-boarded for the continued success of HTA capacity building.

SeHCAT (tauroselcholic [75selenium] acid) for the investigation of bile acid diarrhoea in adults: a systematic review and cost-effectiveness analysis

Background

Tauroselcholic [75selenium] acid (SeHCAT™) (GE Healthcare, Chicago, IL, USA) is a radiopharmaceutical that may be useful in diagnosing bile acid diarrhoea.

Objectives

To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of SeHCAT for the investigation of adults with chronic unexplained diarrhoea, diarrhoea-predominant irritable bowel syndrome or functional diarrhoea (suspected primary bile acid diarrhoea), and adults with chronic diarrhoea and Crohn’s disease who have not undergone ileal resection (suspected secondary bile acid diarrhoea).

Methods

Sixteen databases were searched to November 2020. The review process included measures to minimise error and bias. Results were summarised by primary or secondary bile acid diarrhoea and study quality was considered. The cost-effectiveness analysis combined a short-term (6-month) decision-analytic model (diagnosis and initial treatment response) and a lifetime Markov model comprising three health states (diarrhoea, no diarrhoea and death), with transitions determined by probabilities of response to treatment. Analyses were conducted from an NHS and Personal Social Services perspective.

Results

Twenty-four studies were included in this review. Of these, 21 were observational studies, reporting some outcome data for patients treated with bile acid sequestrants, and in which only patients with a positive SeHCAT test were offered bile acid sequestrants. The median rate of response to bile acid sequestrants, among patients with a 7-day SeHCAT retention value of ≤ 15%, was 68% (range 38–86%) (eight studies). The estimated sensitivity of SeHCAT (≤ 15% threshold) to predict positive response to colestyramine was 100% (95% confidence interval 54.1% to 100%) and the specificity estimate was 91.2% (95% confidence interval 76.3% to 98.1%) (one study). The median proportion of treated patients who were intolerant/discontinued bile acid sequestrants was 15% (range 4–27%) (eight studies). There was insufficient information to determine whether or not intolerance varied between colestyramine, colestipol and colesevelam. For both populations, the SeHCAT 15% (i.e. a SeHCAT retention value of ≤ 15%) strategy dominated other strategies or resulted in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of < £20,000–30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. For the suspected primary bile acid diarrhoea population, SeHCAT 15% was the strategy most likely to be cost-effective: 67% and 73% probability at threshold incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £20,000 and £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, respectively. For the Crohn’s disease population, these probabilities were 89% and 92% at £20,000 and £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, respectively. Cost-effectiveness was mostly led by treatment response. SeHCAT 15% was the strategy with the highest response rate in the majority of scenarios explored.

Limitations and conclusions

There is a lack of evidence linking the use of SeHCAT testing to patient-relevant outcomes. The optimal SeHCAT threshold, to define bile acid diarrhoea and select patients for treatment with bile acid sequestrants, is uncertain. It is unclear whether or not patients with ‘borderline’ or ‘equivocal’ 7-day SeHCAT retention values (e.g. between 10% and 15%) and patients with values of > 15% could benefit from treatment with bile acid sequestrants. Although the results of the economic evaluation conducted for both populations indicated that the SeHCAT 15% strategy dominated the other two strategies or resulted in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios that were lower than the common thresholds of £20,000 or £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, the paucity and poor quality of evidence mean that uncertainty is high.

Future work

The optimum study design would be a multiarm randomised controlled trial, in which participants meeting the inclusion criteria are randomised to receive colestyramine, colestipol, colesevelam or placebo, and all participants receive SeHCAT testing.

Study registration

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42020223877.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (IHR) Evidence Synthesis programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 45. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

The Net Benefit of Personalized Medicine: A Systematic Literature Review and Regression Analysis

OBJECTIVES

Amidst conflicting expectations about the benefits of personalized medicine (PM) and the potentially high implementation costs, we reviewed the available evidence on the cost-effectiveness of PM relative to non-PM.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature review of economic evaluations of PM and extracted data, including incremental quality-adjusted life-years (ΔQALYs) and incremental costs (Δcosts). ΔQALYs and Δcosts were combined with estimates of national cost-effectiveness thresholds to calculate incremental net monetary benefit (ΔNMB). Regression analyses were performed with these variables as dependent variables and PM intervention characteristics as independent variables. Random intercepts were used to cluster studies according to country.

RESULTS

Of 4774 studies reviewed, 128 were selected, providing cost-effectiveness data for 279 PM interventions. Most studies were set in the United States (48%) and the United Kingdom (16%) and adopted a healthcare perspective (82%). Cancer treatments (60%) and pharmaceutical interventions (72%) occurred frequently. Prognostic tests (19%) and tests to identify (non)responders (37%) were least and most common, respectively. Industry sponsorship occurred in 32%. Median ΔQALYs, Δcosts, and ΔNMB per individual were 0.03, Int$575, and Int$18, respectively. We found large heterogeneity in cost-effectiveness. Regression analysis showed that gene therapies were associated with higher ΔQALYs than other interventions. PM interventions for neoplasms brought higher ΔNMB than PM interventions for other conditions. Nonetheless, average ΔNMB in the 'neoplasm' group was found to be negative.

CONCLUSIONS

PM brings improvements in health but often at a high cost, resulting in 0 to negative ΔNMB on average. Pricing policies may be needed to reduce the costs of interventions with negative ΔNMB.

Therapeutic Drug Monitoring-Guided Adjuvant Tamoxifen Dosing in Patients with Early Breast Cancer: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis from the Prospective TOTAM Trial

Background and Objectives

Endoxifen is the active metabolite of tamoxifen, and a minimal plasma concentration of 16 nM has been suggested as a threshold above which it is effective in reducing the risk of breast cancer recurrence. The aim of the current analysis was to investigate the cost-effectiveness of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM)-guided tamoxifen dosing.

Methods

A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a Dutch healthcare perspective, using a partitioned survival model and a lifetime horizon. The reduction in subtherapeutic treatment following TDM is modelled as improved rates of recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) in comparison to standard tamoxifen treatment. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and a series of scenario analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the results.

Results

Base-case results estimated a total increase in life years and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for TDM of 0.40 and 0.53, respectively. Total costs for TDM and standard tamoxifen treatment are €32,893 and €39,524, respectively. The TDM intervention results in both more QALYs and less healthcare costs, indicating a dominating effect for TDM. The PSA results indicate that the probability of TDM being cost-effective is 92% when using a willingness-to-pay threshold of €20,000.

Conclusions

TDM-guided dose optimization of tamoxifen is estimated to save costs and increase QALYs for early breast cancer patients.

Modeling Early Warning Systems: Construction and Validation of a Discrete Event Simulation Model for Heart Failure

OBJECTIVES

Developing and validating a discrete event simulation model that is able to model patients with heart failure managed with usual care or an early warning system (with or without a diagnostic algorithm) and to account for the impact of individual patient characteristics in their health outcomes.

METHODS

The model was developed using patient-level data from the Trans-European Network - Home-Care Management System study. It was coded using RStudio Version 1.3.1093 (version 3.6.2.) and validated along the lines of the Assessment of the Validation Status of Health-Economic decision models tool. The model includes 20 patient and disease characteristics and generates 8 different outcomes. Model outcomes were generated for the base-case analysis and used in the model validation.

RESULTS

Patients managed with the early warning system, compared with usual care, experienced an average increase of 2.99 outpatient visits and a decrease of 0.02 hospitalizations per year, with a gain of 0.81 life years (0.45 quality-adjusted life years) and increased average total costs of €11 249. Adding a diagnostic algorithm to the early warning system resulted in a 0.92 life year gain (0.57 quality-adjusted life years) and increased average costs of €9680. These patients experienced a decrease of 0.02 outpatient visits and 0.65 hospitalizations per year, while they avoided being hospitalized 0.93 times. The model showed robustness and validity of generated outcomes when comparing them with other models addressing the same problem and with external data.

CONCLUSIONS

This study developed and validated a unique patient-level simulation model that can be used for simulating a wide range of outcomes for different patient subgroups and treatment scenarios. It provides useful information for guiding research and for developing new treatment options by showing the hypothetical impact of these interventions on a large number of important heart failure outcomes.

Cost-effectiveness of the fixed-dose combination tiotropium/olodaterol versus tiotropium monotherapy or a fixed-dose combination of long-acting β2-agonist/inhaled corticosteroid for COPD in Finland, Sweden and the Netherlands: a model-based study

OBJECTIVES

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) guidelines advocate treatment with combinations of long-acting bronchodilators for patients with COPD who have persistent symptoms or continue to have exacerbations while using a single bronchodilator. This study assessed the cost-utility of the fixed dose combination of the bronchodilators tiotropium and olodaterol versus two comparators, tiotropium monotherapy and long-acting β2 agonist/inhaled corticosteroid (LABA/ICS) combinations, in three European countries: Finland, Sweden and the Netherlands.

METHODS

A previously published COPD patient-level discrete event simulation model was updated with most recent evidence to estimate lifetime quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs for COPD patients receiving either tiotropium/olodaterol, tiotropium monotherapy or LABA/ICS. Treatment efficacy covered impact on trough forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), total and severe exacerbations and pneumonias. The unit costs of medication, maintenance treatment, exacerbations and pneumonias were obtained for each country. The country-specific analyses adhered to the Finnish, Swedish and Dutch pharmacoeconomic guidelines, respectively.

RESULTS

Treatment with tiotropium/olodaterol gained QALYs ranging from 0.09 (Finland and Sweden) to 0.11 (the Netherlands) versus tiotropium and 0.23 (Finland and Sweden) to 0.28 (the Netherlands) versus LABA/ICS. The Finnish payer's incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of tiotropium/olodaterol was €11 000/QALY versus tiotropium and dominant versus LABA/ICS. The Swedish ICERs were €6200/QALY and dominant, respectively (societal perspective). The Dutch ICERs were €14 400 and €9200, respectively (societal perspective). The probability that tiotropium/olodaterol was cost-effective compared with tiotropium at the country-specific (unofficial) threshold values for the maximum willingness to pay for a QALY was 84% for Finland, 98% for Sweden and 99% for the Netherlands. Compared with LABA/ICS, this probability was 100% for all three countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the simulations, tiotropium/olodaterol is a cost-effective treatment option versus tiotropium or LABA/ICS in all three countries. In both Finland and Sweden, tiotropium/olodaterol is more effective and cost saving (ie, dominant) in comparison with LABA/ICS.

Home telemonitoring and a diagnostic algorithm in the management of heart failure in the Netherlands: a cost-effectiveness analysis (Preprint)

Background

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Cost-utility analysis of four common surgical treatment pathways for breast cancer

BACKGROUND

The aim was to evaluate the cost-utility of four common surgical treatment pathways for breast cancer: mastectomy, breast-conserving therapy (BCT), implant breast reconstruction (BR) and autologous-BR.

METHODS

Patient-level healthcare consumption data and results of a large quality of life (QoL) study from five Dutch hospitals were combined. The cost-effectiveness was assessed in terms of incremental costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) over a 10-year follow-up period. Costs were assessed from a healthcare provider perspective.

RESULTS

BCT resulted in comparable QoL with lower costs compared to implant-BR and autologous-BR and showed better QoL with higher costs than mastectomy (€17,246/QALY). QoL outcomes and costs of especially autologous-BR were affected by the relatively high occurrence of complications. If reconstruction following mastectomy was performed, implant-BR was more cost-effective than autologous-BR.

CONCLUSION

The occurrence of complications had a substantial effect on costs and QoL outcomes of different surgical pathways for breast cancer. When this was taken into account, BCT was most the cost-effective treatment. Even with higher costs and a higher risk of complications, implant-BR and autologous-BR remained cost-effective over mastectomy. This pleas for adapting surgical pathways to individual patient preferences in the trade-off between the risks of complications and expected outcomes.

How to Address Uncertainty in Health Economic Discrete-Event Simulation Models: An Illustration for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Background. Evaluation of personalized treatment options requires health economic models that include multiple patient characteristics. Patient-level discrete-event simulation (DES) models are deemed appropriate because of their ability to simulate a variety of characteristics and treatment pathways. However, DES models are scarce in the literature, and details about their methods are often missing. Methods. We describe 4 challenges associated with modeling heterogeneity and structural, stochastic, and parameter uncertainty that can be encountered during the development of DES models. We explain why these are important and how to correctly implement them. To illustrate the impact of the modeling choices discussed, we use (results of) a model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) as a case study. Results. The results from the case study showed that, under a correct implementation of the uncertainty in the model, a hypothetical intervention can be deemed as cost-effective. The consequences of incorrect modeling uncertainty included an increase in the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio ranging from 50% to almost a factor of 14, an extended life expectancy of approximately 1.4 years, and an enormously increased uncertainty around the model outcomes. Thus, modeling uncertainty incorrectly can have substantial implications for decision making. Conclusions. This article provides guidance on the implementation of uncertainty in DES models and improves the transparency of reporting uncertainty methods. The COPD case study illustrates the issues described in the article and helps understanding them better. The model R code shows how the uncertainty was implemented. For readers not familiar with R, the model's pseudo-code can be used to understand how the model works. By doing this, we can help other developers, who are likely to face similar challenges to those described here.

Early cost-utility analysis of tissue-engineered heart valves compared to bioprostheses in the aortic position in elderly patients

OBJECTIVES

Aortic valve disease is the most frequent indication for heart valve replacement with the highest prevalence in elderly. Tissue-engineered heart valves (TEHV) are foreseen to have important advantages over currently used bioprosthetic heart valve substitutes, most importantly reducing valve degeneration with subsequent reduction of re-intervention. We performed early Health Technology Assessment of hypothetical TEHV in elderly patients (≥ 70 years) requiring surgical (SAVR) or transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) to assess the potential of TEHV and to inform future development decisions.

METHODS

Using a patient-level simulation model, the potential cost-effectiveness of TEHV compared with bioprostheses was predicted from a societal perspective. Anticipated, but currently hypothetical improvements in performance of TEHV, divided in durability, thrombogenicity, and infection resistance, were explored in scenario analyses to estimate quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gain, cost reduction, headroom, and budget impact.

RESULTS

Durability of TEHV had the highest impact on QALY gain and costs, followed by infection resistance. Improved TEHV performance (- 50% prosthetic valve-related events) resulted in lifetime QALY gains of 0.131 and 0.043, lifetime cost reductions of €639 and €368, translating to headrooms of €3255 and €2498 per hypothetical TEHV compared to SAVR and TAVI, respectively. National savings in the first decade after implementation varied between €2.8 and €11.2 million (SAVR) and €3.2-€12.8 million (TAVI) for TEHV substitution rates of 25-100%.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the relatively short life expectancy of elderly patients undergoing SAVR/TAVI, hypothetical TEHV are predicted to be cost-effective compared to bioprostheses, commercially viable and result in national cost savings when biomedical engineers succeed in realising improved durability and/or infection resistance of TEHV.

Evaluating the Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Seizure Dogs in Persons With Medically Refractory Epilepsy in the Netherlands: Study Protocol for a Stepped Wedge Randomized Controlled Trial (EPISODE)

Background: Epilepsy is associated with a high disease burden, impacting the lives of people with epilepsy and their caregivers and family. Persons with medically refractory epilepsy experience the greatest burden, suffering from profound physical, psychological, and social consequences. Anecdotal evidence suggests these persons may benefit from a seizure dog. As the training of a seizure dog is a substantial investment, their accessibility is limited in the absence of collective reimbursement as is seen in the Netherlands. Despite sustained interest in seizure dogs, scientific knowledge on their benefits and costs remains scarce. To substantiate reimbursement decisions stronger evidence is required. The EPISODE study aims to provide this evidence by evaluating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of seizure dogs in adults with medically refractory epilepsy.

Methods: The study is designed as a stepped wedge randomized controlled trial that compares the use of seizure dogs in addition to usual care, with usual care alone. The study includes adults with epilepsy for whom current treatment options failed to achieve seizure freedom. Seizure frequency of participants should be at least two seizures per week, and the seizures should be associated with a high risk of injury or dysfunction. During the 3 year follow-up period, participants receive a seizure dog in a randomized order. Outcome measures are taken at multiple time points both before and after receiving the seizure dog. Seizure frequency is the primary outcome of the study and will be recorded continuously using a seizure diary. Questionnaires measuring seizure severity, quality of life, well-being, resource use, productivity, social participation, and caregiver burden will be completed at baseline and every 3 months thereafter. The study is designed to include a minimum of 25 participants.

Discussion: This protocol describes the first randomized controlled trial on seizure dogs. The study will provide comprehensive data on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of seizure dogs in adults with medically refractory epilepsy. Broader benefits of seizure dogs for persons with epilepsy and their caregivers are taken into account, as well as the welfare of the dogs. The findings of the study can be used to inform decision-makers on the reimbursement of seizure dogs.

Severity-Adjusted Probability of Being Cost Effective

BACKGROUND

In the context of priority setting, a differential cost-effectiveness threshold can be used to reflect a higher societal willingness to pay for quality-adjusted life-year gains in the worse off. However, uncertainty in the estimate of severity can lead to problems when evaluating the outcomes of cost-effectiveness analyses.

OBJECTIVES

This study standardizes the assessment of severity, integrates its uncertainty with the uncertainty in cost-effectiveness results and provides decision makers with a new estimate: the severity-adjusted probability of being cost effective.

METHODS

Severity is expressed in proportional and absolute shortfall and estimated using life tables and country-specific EQ-5D values. We use the three severity-based cost-effectiveness thresholds (€20.000, €50.000 and €80.000, per QALY) adopted in The Netherlands. We exemplify procedures of integrating uncertainty with a stylized example of a hypothetical oncology treatment.

RESULTS

Applying our methods, taking into account the uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness results and in the estimation of severity identifies the likelihood of an intervention being cost effective when there is uncertainty about the appropriate severity-based cost-effectiveness threshold.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher willingness-to-pay thresholds for severe diseases are implemented in countries to reflect societal concerns for an equitable distribution of resources. However, the estimates of severity are uncertain, patient populations are heterogeneous, and this can be accounted for with the severity-adjusted probability of being cost effective proposed in this study. The application to the Netherlands suggests that not adopting the new method could result in incorrect decisions in the reimbursement of new health technologies.

Obinutuzumab in Combination with Chemotherapy for the First-Line Treatment of Patients with Advanced Follicular Lymphoma : An Evidence Review Group Evaluation of the NICE Single Technology Appraisal

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), as part of the institute's single technology appraisal (STA) process, invited the company that makes obinutuzumab (Roche Products Limited) to submit evidence of the clinical and cost effectiveness of the drug in combination with chemotherapy, with or without obinutuzumab as maintenance therapy for adult patients with untreated, advanced follicular lymphoma (FL) in the UK. Kleijnen Systematic Reviews Ltd (KSR), in collaboration with Erasmus University Rotterdam, was commissioned to act as the Evidence Review Group (ERG). This paper describes the company's submission, the ERG review, and NICE's subsequent decisions. The clinical evidence was derived from two phase III, company-sponsored, randomised, open-label studies. Most evidence on obinutuzumab was based on the GALLIUM trial that compared obinutuzumab in combination with chemotherapy as induction followed by obinutuzumab maintenance monotherapy with rituximab in combination with chemotherapy as induction followed by rituximab maintenance monotherapy in previously untreated patients with FL (grades 1-3a). Long-term clinical evidence was based on the PRIMA trial, studying the benefit of two years of rituximab maintenance after first-line treatment in patients with FL. The cost-effectiveness evidence submitted by the company relied on a partitioned survival cost-utility model, implemented in Microsoft® Excel. The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) presented in the company submission was <£20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Although the ERG concluded that the economic model met the NICE reference case to a reasonable extent, some errors were identified and several assumptions made by the company were challenged. A new base-case scenario produced by the ERG suggested an ICER that was higher than the company base case, but still below £30,000 per QALY gained. However, some ERG scenario analyses were close to or even above the threshold. This was the case in particular for assuming a treatment effect that did not extend beyond trial follow-up. These results led to an initial negative recommendation by the appraisal committee. Subsequently, the company submitted a revised base case focusing on patients at intermediate or high risk of premature mortality. Simultaneously, a further price discount for obinutuzumab was granted. In addition to the company's revised base case, the ERG suggested a restriction of the treatment effect to 5 years and implemented biosimilar uptake and cheaper prices for rituximab. All of these adjustments did not exceed £30,000 per QALY gained and therefore the use of obinutuzumab for patients with advanced FL and a Follicular Lymphoma International Predictive Index (FLIPI) score of two or more could be recommended.

Broadening the Perspective of Cost-Effectiveness Modeling in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A New Patient-Level Simulation Model Suitable to Evaluate Stratified Medicine

OBJECTIVES

To develop a health economic model that included a great diversity of patient characteristics and outcomes for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), which can be used to inform decisions about stratified medicine in COPD.

METHODS

The choice of patient characteristics and outcomes to include in the model was based on 3 literature reviews on multidimensional prognostic COPD indices, COPD phenotypes, and treatment effects in subgroups. A conceptual model was constructed including 14 patient characteristics, 7 intermediate outcomes (lung function, physical activity, exercise capacity, symptoms, disease-specific quality of life, exacerbations, and pneumonias), and 3 final outcomes (mortality, quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs], and costs). Regression equations describing the statistical associations between the patient characteristics and intermediate and final outcomes were estimated using the longitudinal data of 5 large COPD trials (19,378 patients). A patient-level simulation model was developed in which individual patients from the baseline population of the 5 trials are sampled and their outcomes over lifetime are predicted based on the regression equations.

RESULTS

The base-case analysis (single-arm simulation representing treatment with tiotropium) showed that patients had a mean lung function decline of 43 mL/year, 0.62 exacerbations/year, a worsening of their physical activity and quality of life with 1.48 and 1.10 points/year, a life expectancy of 11.2 years, 7.25 QALYs, and total lifetime costs of £24,891. Results for a selection of treatment scenarios and subgroups were shown to demonstrate the potential of the model.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a unique patient-level simulation model that can be used to evaluate COPD treatment options for a variety of subgroups.

Long-term cost-effectiveness of the fixed-dose combination of tiotropium plus olodaterol based on the DYNAGITO trial results

PURPOSE

Combinations of long-acting bronchodilators are recommended to reduce the rate of COPD exacerbations. Evidence from the DYNAGITO trial showed that the fixed-dose combination of tiotropium + olodaterol reduced the annual rate of total exacerbations (P<0.05) compared with tiotropium monotherapy. This study aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the fixed-dose combination of tiotropium + olodaterol vs tiotropium monotherapy in COPD patients in the French setting.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A recently developed COPD patient-level simulation model was used to simulate the lifetime effects and costs for 15,000 patients receiving either tiotropium + olodaterol or tiotropium monotherapy by applying the reduction in annual exacerbation rate as observed in the DYNAGITO trial. The model was adapted to the French setting by including French unit costs for treatment medication, COPD maintenance treatment, COPD exacerbations (moderate or severe), and pneumonia. The main outcomes were the annual (severe) exacerbation rate, the number of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and total lifetime costs.

RESULTS

The number of QALYs for treatment with tiotropium + olodaterol was 0.042 higher compared with tiotropium monotherapy. Using a societal perspective, tiotropium + olodaterol resulted in a cost increase of +€123 and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €2,900 per QALY compared with tiotropium monotherapy. From a French National Sickness Fund perspective, total lifetime costs were reduced by €272 with tiotropium + olodaterol, resulting in tiotropium + olodaterol being the dominant treatment option, that is, more effects with less costs. Sensitivity analyses showed that reducing the cost of exacerbations by 34% increased the ICER to €15,400, which could still be considered cost-effective in the French setting.

CONCLUSION

Treatment with tiotropium + olodaterol resulted in a gain in QALYs and savings in costs compared with tiotropium monotherapy using a National Sickness Fund perspective in France. From the societal perspective, tiotropium + olodaterol was found to be cost-effective with a low cost per QALY.

Faecal immunochemical tests to triage patients with lower abdominal symptoms for suspected colorectal cancer referrals in primary care: a systematic review and cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer in the UK. Presenting symptoms that can be associated with CRC usually have another explanation. Faecal immunochemical tests (FITs) detect blood that is not visible to the naked eye and may help to select patients who are likely to benefit from further investigation.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness of FITs [OC-Sensor (Eiken Chemical Co./MAST Diagnostics, Tokyo, Japan), HM-JACKarc (Kyowa Medex/Alpha Laboratories Ltd, Tokyo, Japan), FOB Gold (Sentinel/Sysmex, Sentinel Diagnostics, Milan, Italy), RIDASCREEN Hb or RIDASCREEN Hb/Hp complex (R-Biopharm, Darmstadt, Germany)] for primary care triage of people with low-risk symptoms.

METHODS

Twenty-four resources were searched to March 2016. Review methods followed published guidelines. Summary estimates were calculated using a bivariate model or a random-effects logistic regression model. The cost-effectiveness analysis considered long-term costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) that were associated with different faecal occult blood tests and direct colonoscopy referral. Modelling comprised a diagnostic decision model, a Markov model for long-term costs and QALYs that were associated with CRC treatment and progression, and a Markov model for QALYs that were associated with no CRC.

RESULTS

We included 10 studies. Using a single sample and 10 µg Hb/g faeces threshold, sensitivity estimates for OC-Sensor [92.1%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 86.9% to 95.3%] and HM-JACKarc (100%, 95% CI 71.5% to 100%) indicated that both may be useful to rule out CRC. Specificity estimates were 85.8% (95% CI 78.3% to 91.0%) and 76.6% (95% CI 72.6% to 80.3%). Triage using FITs could rule out CRC and avoid colonoscopy in approximately 75% of symptomatic patients. Data from our systematic review suggest that 22.5-93% of patients with a positive FIT and no CRC have other significant bowel pathologies. The results of the base-case analysis suggested minimal difference in QALYs between all of the strategies; no triage (referral straight to colonoscopy) is the most expensive. Faecal immunochemical testing was cost-effective (cheaper and more, or only slightly less, effective) compared with no triage. Faecal immunochemical testing was more effective and costly than guaiac faecal occult blood testing, but remained cost-effective at a threshold incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £30,000. The results of scenario analyses did not differ substantively from the base-case. Results were better for faecal immunochemical testing when accuracy of the guaiac faecal occult blood test (gFOBT) was based on studies that were more representative of the correct population.

LIMITATIONS

Only one included study evaluated faecal immunochemical testing in primary care; however, all of the other studies evaluated faecal immunochemical testing at the point of referral. Further, validation data for the Faecal haemoglobin, Age and Sex Test (FAST) score, which includes faecal immunochemical testing, showed no significant difference in performance between primary and secondary care. There were insufficient data to adequately assess FOB Gold, RIDASCREEN Hb or RIDASCREEN Hb/Hp complex. No study compared FIT assays, or FIT assays versus gFOBT; all of the data included in this assessment refer to the clinical effectiveness of individual FIT methods and not their comparative effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

Faecal immunochemical testing is likely to be a clinically effective and cost-effective strategy for triaging people who are presenting, in primary care settings, with lower abdominal symptoms and who are at low risk for CRC. Further research is required to confirm the effectiveness of faecal immunochemical testing in primary care practice and to compare the performance of different FIT assays.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016037723.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

The increasing importance of a continence nurse specialist to improve outcomes and save costs of urinary incontinence care: an analysis of future policy scenarios

Background

In an ageing population, it is inevitable to improve the management of care for community-dwelling elderly with incontinence. A previous study showed that implementation of the Optimum Continence Service Specification (OCSS) for urinary incontinence in community-dwelling elderly with four or more chronic diseases results in a reduction of urinary incontinence, an improved quality of life, and lower healthcare and lower societal costs. The aim of this study was to explore future consequences of the OCSS strategy of various healthcare policy scenarios in an ageing population.

Methods

We adapted a previously developed decision analytical model in which the OCSS new care strategy was operationalised as the appointment of a continence nurse specialist located within the general practice in The Netherlands. We used a societal perspective including healthcare costs (healthcare providers, treatment costs, insured containment products, insured home care), and societal costs (informal caregiving, containment products paid out-of-pocket, travelling expenses, home care paid out-of-pocket). All outcomes were computed over a three-year time period using two different base years (2014 and 2030). Settings for future policy scenarios were based on desk-research and expert opinion.

Results

Our results show that implementation of the OSCC new care strategy for urinary incontinence would yield large health gains in community dwelling elderly (2030: 2592–2618 QALYs gained) and large cost-savings in The Netherlands (2030: health care perspective: €32.4 Million - €72.5 Million; societal perspective: €182.0 Million - €250.6 Million). Savings can be generated in different categories which depends on healthcare policy. The uncertainty analyses and extreme case scenarios showed the robustness of the results.

Conclusions

Implementation of the OCSS new care strategy for urinary incontinence results in an improvement in the quality of life of community-dwelling elderly, a reduction of the costs for payers and affected elderly, and a reduction in time invested by carers. Various realistic policy scenarios even forecast larger health gains and cost-savings in the future. More importantly, the longer the implementation is postponed the larger the savings foregone. The future organisation of healthcare affects the category in which the greatest savings will be generated.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12875-018-0714-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Research Costs Investigated: A Study Into the Budgets of Dutch Publicly Funded Drug-Related Research

BACKGROUND

The costs of performing research are an important input in value of information (VOI) analyses but are difficult to assess.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate the costs of research, serving two purposes: (1) estimating research costs for use in VOI analyses; and (2) developing a costing tool to support reviewers of grant proposals in assessing whether the proposed budget is realistic.

METHODS

For granted study proposals from the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMw), type of study, potential cost drivers, proposed budget, and general characteristics were extracted. Regression analysis was conducted in an attempt to generate a 'predicted budget' for certain combinations of cost drivers, for implementation in the costing tool.

RESULTS

Of 133 drug-related research grant proposals, 74 were included for complete data extraction. Because an association between cost drivers and budgets was not confirmed, we could not generate a predicted budget based on regression analysis, but only historic reference budgets given certain study characteristics. The costing tool was designed accordingly, i.e. with given selection criteria the tool returns the range of budgets in comparable studies. This range can be used in VOI analysis to estimate whether the expected net benefit of sampling will be positive to decide upon the net value of future research.

CONCLUSION

The absence of association between study characteristics and budgets may indicate inconsistencies in the budgeting or granting process. Nonetheless, the tool generates useful information on historical budgets, and the option to formally relate VOI to budgets. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt at creating such a tool, which can be complemented with new studies being granted, enlarging the underlying database and keeping estimates up to date.

Cost Effectiveness of the Angiotensin Receptor Neprilysin Inhibitor Sacubitril/Valsartan for Patients with Chronic Heart Failure and Reduced Ejection Fraction in the Netherlands: A Country Adaptation Analysis Under the Former and Current Dutch Pharmacoeconomic Guidelines

OBJECTIVES

To describe the adaptation of a global health economic model to determine whether treatment with the angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitor LCZ696 is cost effective compared with the angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor enalapril in adult patients with chronic heart failure with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction in the Netherlands; and to explore the effect of performing the cost-effectiveness analyses according to the new pharmacoeconomic Dutch guidelines (updated during the submission process of LCZ696), which require a value-of-information analysis and the inclusion of indirect medical costs of life-years gained.

METHODS

We adapted a UK model to reflect the societal perspective in the Netherlands by including travel expenses, productivity loss, informal care costs, and indirect medical costs during the life-years gained and performed a preliminary value-of-information analysis.

RESULTS

The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio obtained was €17,600 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. This was robust to changes in most structural assumptions and across different subgroups of patients. Probability sensitivity analysis results showed that the probability that LCZ696 is cost-effective at a €50,000 per QALY threshold is 99.8%, with a population expected value of perfect information of €297,128. On including indirect medical costs of life-years gained, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was €26,491 per QALY gained, and LCZ696 was 99.46% cost effective at €50,000 per QALY, with a population expected value of perfect information of €2,849,647.

CONCLUSIONS

LCZ696 is cost effective compared with enalapril under the former and current Dutch guidelines. However, the (monetary) consequences of making a wrong decision were considerably different in both scenarios.

Faecal immunochemical tests (FIT) can help to rule out colorectal cancer in patients presenting in primary care with lower abdominal symptoms: a systematic review conducted to inform new NICE DG30 diagnostic guidance

BACKGROUND

This study has attempted to assess the effectiveness of quantitative faecal immunochemical tests (FIT) for triage of people presenting with lower abdominal symptoms, where a referral to secondary care for investigation of suspected colorectal cancer (CRC) is being considered, particularly when the 2-week criteria are not met.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review following published guidelines for systematic reviews of diagnostic tests. Twenty-one resources were searched up until March 2016. Summary estimates were calculated using a bivariate model or a random-effects logistic regression model.

RESULTS

Nine studies are included in this review. One additional study, included in our systematic review, was provided as 'academic in confidence' and cannot be described herein. When FIT was based on a single faecal sample and a cut-off of 10 μg Hb/g faeces, sensitivity estimates indicated that a negative result using either the OC-Sensor or HM-JACKarc may be adequate to rule out nearly all CRC; the summary estimate of sensitivity for the OC-Sensor was 92.1% (95% confidence interval, CI 86.9-95.3%), based on four studies (n = 4091 participants, 176 with CRC), and the only study of HM-JACKarc to assess the 10 μg Hb/g faeces cut-off (n = 507 participants, 11 with CRC) reported a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI 71.5-100%). The corresponding specificity estimates were 85.8% (95% CI 78.3-91.0%) and 76.6% (95% CI 72.6-80.3%), respectively. When the diagnostic criterion was changed to include lower grades of neoplasia, i.e. the target condition included higher risk adenoma (HRA) as well as CRC, the rule-out performance of both FIT assays was reduced.

CONCLUSIONS

There is evidence to suggest that triage using FIT at a cut-off around 10 μg Hb/g faeces has the potential to correctly rule out CRC and avoid colonoscopy in 75-80% of symptomatic patients.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO 42016037723.

A New Statistical Method to Determine the Degree of Validity of Health Economic Model Outcomes against Empirical Data

BACKGROUND

The validation of health economic (HE) model outcomes against empirical data is of key importance. Although statistical testing seems applicable, guidelines for the validation of HE models lack guidance on statistical validation, and actual validation efforts often present subjective judgment of graphs and point estimates.

OBJECTIVES

To discuss the applicability of existing validation techniques and to present a new method for quantifying the degrees of validity statistically, which is useful for decision makers.

METHODS

A new Bayesian method is proposed to determine how well HE model outcomes compare with empirical data. Validity is based on a pre-established accuracy interval in which the model outcomes should fall. The method uses the outcomes of a probabilistic sensitivity analysis and results in a posterior distribution around the probability that HE model outcomes can be regarded as valid.

RESULTS

We use a published diabetes model (Modelling Integrated Care for Diabetes based on Observational data) to validate the outcome "number of patients who are on dialysis or with end-stage renal disease." Results indicate that a high probability of a valid outcome is associated with relatively wide accuracy intervals. In particular, 25% deviation from the observed outcome implied approximately 60% expected validity.

CONCLUSIONS

Current practice in HE model validation can be improved by using an alternative method based on assessing whether the model outcomes fit to empirical data at a predefined level of accuracy. This method has the advantage of assessing both model bias and parameter uncertainty and resulting in a quantitative measure of the degree of validity that penalizes models predicting the mean of an outcome correctly but with overly wide credible intervals.

Integrated sensor-augmented pump therapy systems [the MiniMed® Paradigm™ Veo system and the Vibe™ and G4® PLATINUM CGM (continuous glucose monitoring) system] for managing blood glucose levels in type 1 diabetes: a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

In recent years, meters for continuous monitoring of interstitial fluid glucose have been introduced to help people with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) to achieve better control of their disease.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this project was to summarise the evidence on the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the MiniMed(®) Paradigm™ Veo system (Medtronic Inc., Northridge, CA, USA) and the Vibe™ (Animas(®) Corporation, West Chester, PA, USA) and G4(®) PLATINUM CGM (continuous glucose monitoring) system (Dexcom Inc., San Diego, CA, USA) in comparison with multiple daily insulin injections (MDIs) or continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII), both with either self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) or CGM, for the management of T1DM in adults and children.

DATA SOURCES

A systematic review was conducted in accordance with the principles of the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination guidance and the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence Diagnostic Assessment Programme manual. We searched 14 databases, three trial registries and two conference proceedings from study inception up to September 2014. In addition, reference lists of relevant systematic reviews were checked. In the absence of randomised controlled trials directly comparing Veo or an integrated CSII + CGM system, such as Vibe, with comparator interventions, indirect treatment comparisons were performed if possible.

METHODS

A commercially available cost-effectiveness model, the IMS Centre for Outcomes Research and Effectiveness diabetes model version 8.5 (IMS Health, Danbury, CT, USA), was used for this assessment. This model is an internet-based, interactive simulation model that predicts the long-term health outcomes and costs associated with the management of T1DM and type 2 diabetes. The model consists of 15 submodels designed to simulate diabetes-related complications, non-specific mortality and costs over time. As the model simulates individual patients over time, it updates risk factors and complications to account for disease progression.

RESULTS

Fifty-four publications resulting from 19 studies were included in the review. Overall, the evidence suggests that the Veo system reduces hypoglycaemic events more than other treatments, without any differences in other outcomes, including glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels. We also found significant results in favour of the integrated CSII + CGM system over MDIs with SMBG with regard to HbA1c levels and quality of life. However, the evidence base was poor. The quality of the included studies was generally low, often with only one study comparing treatments in a specific population at a specific follow-up time. In particular, there was only one study comparing Veo with an integrated CSII + CGM system and only one study comparing Veo with a CSII + SMBG system in a mixed population. Cost-effectiveness analyses indicated that MDI + SMBG is the option most likely to be cost-effective, given the current threshold of £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, whereas integrated CSII + CGM systems and Veo are dominated and extendedly dominated, respectively, by stand-alone, non-integrated CSII with CGM. Scenario analyses did not alter these conclusions. No cost-effectiveness modelling was conducted for children or pregnant women.

CONCLUSIONS

The Veo system does appear to be better than the other systems considered at reducing hypoglycaemic events. However, in adults, it is unlikely to be cost-effective. Integrated systems are also generally unlikely to be cost-effective given that stand-alone systems are cheaper and, possibly, no less effective. However, evidence in this regard is generally lacking, in particular for children. Future trials in specific child, adolescent and adult populations should include longer term follow-up and ratings on the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions scale at various time points with a view to informing improved cost-effectiveness modelling.

STUDY REGISTRATION

PROSPERO Registration Number CRD42014013764.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Cost Recommendation under Uncertainty in IQWiG’s Efficiency Frontier Framework

Background. The National Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG) employs an efficiency frontier (EF) framework to facilitate setting maximum reimbursable prices for new interventions. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) is used when yes/no reimbursement decisions are sought based on a fixed threshold. In the IQWiG framework, an additional layer of complexity arises as the EF itself may vary its shape in each PSA iteration, and thus the willingness-to-pay, indicated by the EF segments, may vary. Objectives. To explore the practical problems arising when, within the EF approach, maximum reimbursable prices for new interventions are sought through PSA. Methods. When the EF is varied in a PSA, cost recommendations for new interventions may be determined by the mean or the median of the distances between each intervention’s point estimate and each EF. Implications of using these metrics were explored in a simulation study based on the model used by IQWiG to assess the cost-effectiveness of 4 antidepressants. Results. Depending on the metric used, cost recommendations can be contradictory. Recommendations based on the mean can also be inconsistent. Results (median) suggested that costs of duloxetine, venlafaxine, mirtazapine, and bupropion should be decreased by €131, €29, €12, and €99, respectively. These recommendations were implemented and the analysis repeated. New results suggested keeping the costs as they were. The percentage of acceptable PSA outcomes increased 41% on average, and the uncertainty associated to the net health benefit was significantly reduced. Conclusions. The median of the distances between every intervention outcome and every EF is a good proxy for the cost recommendation that would be given should the EF be fixed. Adjusting costs according to the median increased the probability of acceptance and reduced the uncertainty around the net health benefit distribution, resulting in a reduced uncertainty for decision makers.

Viscoelastic point-of-care testing to assist with the diagnosis, management and monitoring of haemostasis: a systematic review and cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Patients with substantive bleeding usually require transfusion and/or (re-)operation. Red blood cell (RBC) transfusion is independently associated with a greater risk of infection, morbidity, increased hospital stay and mortality. ROTEM (ROTEM® Delta, TEM International GmbH, Munich, Germany; www.rotem.de), TEG (TEG® 5000 analyser, Haemonetics Corporation, Niles, IL, USA; www.haemonetics.com) and Sonoclot (Sonoclot® coagulation and platelet function analyser, Sienco Inc., Arvada, CO) are point-of-care viscoelastic (VE) devices that use thromboelastometry to test for haemostasis in whole blood. They have a number of proposed advantages over standard laboratory tests (SLTs): they provide a result much quicker, are able to identify what part of the clotting process is disrupted, and provide information on clot formation over time and fibrinolysis.

OBJECTIVES

This assessment aimed to assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of VE devices to assist with the diagnosis, management and monitoring of haemostasis disorders during and after cardiac surgery, trauma-induced coagulopathy and post-partum haemorrhage (PPH).

METHODS

Sixteen databases were searched to December 2013: MEDLINE (OvidSP), MEDLINE In-Process and Other Non-Indexed Citations and Daily Update (OvidSP), EMBASE (OvidSP), BIOSIS Previews (Web of Knowledge), Science Citation Index (SCI) (Web of Science), Conference Proceedings Citation Index (CPCI-S) (Web of Science), Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE), Health Technology Assessment (HTA) database, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), International Network of Agencies for Health Technology Assessment (INAHTA), National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) HTA programme, Aggressive Research Intelligence Facility (ARIF), Medion, and the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO). Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) were assessed for quality using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. Prediction studies were assessed using QUADAS-2. For RCTs, summary relative risks (RRs) were estimated using random-effects models. Continuous data were summarised narratively. For prediction studies, the odds ratio (OR) was selected as the primary effect estimate. The health-economic analysis considered the costs and quality-adjusted life-years of ROTEM, TEG and Sonoclot compared with SLTs in cardiac surgery and trauma patients. A decision tree was used to take into account short-term complications and longer-term side effects from transfusion. The model assumed a 1-year time horizon.

RESULTS

Thirty-one studies (39 publications) were included in the clinical effectiveness review. Eleven RCTs (n=1089) assessed VE devices in patients undergoing cardiac surgery; six assessed thromboelastography (TEG) and five assessed ROTEM. There was a significant reduction in RBC transfusion [RR 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.80 to 0.96; six studies], platelet transfusion (RR 0.72, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.89; six studies) and fresh frozen plasma to transfusion (RR 0.47, 95% CI 0.35 to 0.65; five studies) in VE testing groups compared with control. There were no significant differences between groups in terms of other blood products transfused. Continuous data on blood product use supported these findings. Clinical outcomes did not differ significantly between groups. There were no apparent differences between ROTEM or TEG; none of the RCTs evaluated Sonoclot. There were no data on the clinical effectiveness of VE devices in trauma patients or women with PPH. VE testing was cost-saving and more effective than SLTs. For the cardiac surgery model, the cost-saving was £43 for ROTEM, £79 for TEG and £132 for Sonoclot. For the trauma population, the cost-savings owing to VE testing were more substantial, amounting to per-patient savings of £688 for ROTEM compared with SLTs, £721 for TEG, and £818 for Sonoclot. This finding was entirely dependent on material costs, which are slightly higher for ROTEM. VE testing remained cost-saving following various scenario analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

VE testing is cost-saving and more effective than SLTs, in both patients undergoing cardiac surgery and trauma patients. However, there were no data on the clinical effectiveness of Sonoclot or of VE devices in trauma patients.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42013005623.

FUNDING

The NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme.

The Missing Stakeholder Group: Why Patients Should be Involved in Health Economic Modelling

Evaluations of healthcare interventions, e.g. new drugs or other new treatment strategies, commonly include a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) that is based on the application of health economic (HE) models. As end users, patients are important stakeholders regarding the outcomes of CEAs, yet their knowledge of HE model development and application, or their involvement therein, is absent. This paper considers possible benefits and risks of patient involvement in HE model development and application for modellers and patients. An exploratory review of the literature has been performed on stakeholder-involved modelling in various disciplines. In addition, Dutch patient experts have been interviewed about their experience in, and opinion about, the application of HE models. Patients have little to no knowledge of HE models and are seldom involved in HE model development and application. Benefits of becoming involved would include a greater understanding and possible acceptance by patients of HE model application, improved model validation, and a more direct infusion of patient expertise. Risks would include patient bias and increased costs of modelling. Patient involvement in HE modelling seems to carry several benefits as well as risks. We claim that the benefits may outweigh the risks and that patients should become involved.

Use of Value of Information in Healthcare Decision Making: Exploring Multiple Perspectives

BACKGROUND

Value of information (VOI) is a tool that can be used to inform decisions concerning additional research in healthcare. VOI estimates the value of obtaining additional information and indicates the optimal design for additional research. Although it is recognized as good practice in handling uncertainty, it is still hardly used in decision making in the Netherlands.

OBJECTIVE

This paper aims to examine the potential value of VOI, barriers and facilitators and the way forward with the use of VOI in the decision-making process for reimbursement of pharmaceuticals in the Netherlands.

METHODS

Three focus group interviews were conducted with researchers, policy makers, and representatives of pharmaceutical companies.

RESULTS

The results revealed that although all stakeholders recognize the relevance of VOI, it is hardly used and many barriers to the performance and use of VOI were identified. One of these barriers is that not all uncertainties are easily incorporated in VOI, and the results may be biased if structural uncertainties are ignored. Furthermore, not all research designs indicated by VOI may be feasible in practice.

CONCLUSIONS

To fully embed VOI into current decision-making processes, a threshold incremental cost-effectiveness ratio and guidelines that clarify when and how VOI should be performed are needed. In addition, it should be clear to all stakeholders how the results of VOI are used in decision making.

Costs of Hospital Stay in Specialized Diabetic Foot Department in Russia

BACKGROUND

Diabetic foot ulcer (DFU) is considered to be one of the most common and costly diabetic complications. The approach unanimously recommended for patients with DFU is treatment by a multidisciplinary foot care team, which in Russia mainly is limited to few federal and regional hospitals. Currently, financing schemes for medical institutions are changing, thus raising the issue of setting adequate tariffs.

OBJECTIVE

To identify the cost of treatment in the specialized diabetic foot department and determinants of variation in cost among individual patients with DFU in the Russian setting from the perspective of a health care organization.

METHODS

We collected data on treatment cost per admission to the Diabetic Foot Department of the Endocrinology Scientific Center and information on patients' characteristics derived from medical records. Data on costs were analyzed, and descriptive statistics are reported. A standard multiple regression analysis was performed to identify the main drivers of treatment cost for patients with DFU.

RESULTS

The mean treatment cost was €3051. The mean cost of treatment for patients with DFU was significantly higher than that for diabetic patients without this complication. The most relevant predictors of the costs of treatment for patients with DFU were surgery provided and length of stay in hospital.

CONCLUSIONS

The cost for treatment of DFU by a multidisciplinary team in the federal medical institution was substantially higher than basic medical insurance tariff for this disease. Because revascularization procedures appeared to be the main cost driver, our results stress the need for careful implementation of this type of treatment for patients with DFU.

Cost-effectiveness of adding rituximab to fludarabine and cyclophosphamide for treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukemia in Ukraine

The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness, from a health care perspective, of adding rituximab to fludarabine and cyclophosphamide scheme (FCR versus FC) for treatment-naïve and refractory/relapsed Ukrainian patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia. A decision-analytic Markov cohort model with three health states and 1-month cycle time was developed and run within a life time horizon. Data from two multinational, prospective, open-label Phase 3 studies were used to assess patients’ survival. While utilities were generalized from UK data, local resource utilization and disease-associated treatment, hospitalization, and side effect costs were applied. The alternative scenario was performed to assess the impact of lower life expectancy of the general population in Ukraine on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for treatment-naïve patients. One-way, two-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of the results. The ICER (in US dollars) of treating chronic lymphocytic leukemia patients with FCR versus FC is US$8,704 per quality-adjusted life year gained for treatment-naïve patients and US$11,056 for refractory/relapsed patients. When survival data were modified to the lower life expectancy of the general population in Ukraine, the ICER for treatment-naïve patients was higher than US$13,000. This value is higher than three times the current gross domestic product per capita in Ukraine. Sensitivity analyses have shown a high impact of rituximab costs and a moderate impact of differences in utilities on the ICER. Furthermore, probabilistic sensitivity analyses have shown that for refractory/relapsed patients the probability of FCR being cost-effective is higher than for treatment-naïve patients and is close to one if the threshold is higher than US$15,000. State coverage of rituximab treatment may be considered a cost-effective treatment for the Ukrainian population under conditions of economic stability, cost-effectiveness threshold growth, or rituximab price negotiations.

Determining the impact of modeling additional sources of uncertainty in value-of-information analysis

BACKGROUND

The conditional reimbursement policy for expensive medicines in The Netherlands requires data collection on actual use and cost-effectiveness after the initial decision to reimburse a drug. This introduces new sources of uncertainty (less important in a randomized controlled trial than in daily practice), which may affect priorities for further research.

OBJECTIVES

This article focuses on determining the impact of including these uncertainties at the time a decision is made, and whether more complex models are always needed to address prioritization of additional research.

METHODS

We constructed a typical decision model for chronic progressive diseases with four health states and parameters related to transition and exacerbation probabilities, costs, and utilities. Different scenarios are built on the basis of three additional uncertainties: persistence, compliance, and broadening of indication. Persistence refers to treatment duration. Compliance describes the fraction of treatment benefit obtained because of not taking the medication as prescribed. Broadening of indication reflects a shift in the severity distribution at treatment start. These uncertainties were parameterized in the model and included in the value-of-information analysis.

RESULTS

The most important parameters were transition probabilities. Broadening of indication had little impact on the overall uncertainty. Compliance and persistence were important when establishing priorities for further research. Major differences with respect to the reference scenario were due to the parameterization of compliance in the decision model.

CONCLUSIONS

The usual practice of modeling only randomized controlled trial data at the time the decision on conditional reimbursement is made can lead to wrong decisions. Additional uncertainties arising from outcomes studies should be anticipated at an early stage and included in the model because this can have a strong impact on the prioritization of further research.

Cost for Treatment of Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia in Specialized Institutions of Ukraine

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to identify, from a health care perspective, the cost of treatment for chronic lymphocytic leukemia in specialized hospitals in Ukraine.

METHODS

Cost analysis was performed by using retrospective data between 2006 and 2010 from patient-file databases of two specialized hospitals (145 patients). Uncertainty was assessed by using bootstrapping and multivariate sensitivity analyses. Linear regression analysis was used to analyze whether patients' characteristics are related to health care costs. In addition, one-way analysis of variance (Welch test) and paired-sample t test were conducted to compare mean costs of treatment between the two hospitals and mean expenses for drugs and in-hospital stay.

RESULTS

The average annual cost for a patient's drug treatment is 2047 EUR. The cost of hospitalization was significantly lower (t = 5.026; significance two-tailed = 0.000) and equal to 541 EUR per person, resulting in total expenditures of 2589 EUR. Mean total costs in the bootstrap analysis were equal to 2584 EUR (median 2576 EUR, 97.5th percentile 3223 EUR; 2.5th percentile 1987 EUR). The regression analysis did not reveal a relation between patients' characteristics and health care costs, although hospital choice was an influential parameter (β = -0.260; significance = 0.002). Significant difference in mean costs of two analyzed hospitals was also confirmed by one-way analysis of variance (Welch statistics 19.222, P = 0.000).

CONCLUSIONS

Drug treatment comprises the largest portion of total costs, but differences between hospitals exist. Because many patients in Ukraine pay out of pocket for in-hospital drugs, these costs are a high economic burden for patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

The role of value-of-information analysis in a health care research priority setting: a theoretical case study

BACKGROUND

The Dutch reimbursement procedure for expensive drugs requires the submission of a baseline cost-effectiveness (CE) analysis and a research plan for the period of temporary reimbursement to estimate the real-life cost-effectiveness after 4 years. The Dutch guidelines recommend a value-of-information analysis to identify the critical parameters to be studied in such an outcome study.

OBJECTIVES

Identify situations where sensitivity analyses are sufficient to establish the need for additional data collection and priority setting.

METHODS

We used a hypothetical Markov model with 3 groups of parameters. We performed deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) and analyzed the expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI), for different configurations of input parameters and a range of threshold incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (λ). We introduced a multivariate (deterministic) sensitivity analysis and a partial PSA.

RESULTS

Deterministic, partial PSA, and EVPPI analyses came to the same ranking of priorities for future research in most cases, irrespective of the place of the results on the CE plane. Rankings differed only when the statistical metrics that we calculated for each method were close together.

CONCLUSIONS

When a clear ranking can be established, all methods lead to the same priority setting. If there is no clear ranking, we regard the parameters as equally important. Priority setting for future research depends on λ and the location of results on the CE plane. The EVPPI is needed to estimate the value of doing additional research, but to prioritize parameters for further research, extensive (partial probabilistic) sensitivity analyses and expected value of perfect information are often sufficient.

Control of ureogenesis

Control of urea synthesis was studied in rat hepatocytes incubated with physiological mixtures of amino acids in which arginine was replaced by equimolar amounts of ornithine. The following observations were made. Intramitochondrial carbamoyl phosphate was always below 0.1 mM. Only when ornithine was absent and when, in addition, the concentration of amino acids was higher than four times their plasma concentration, intramitochondrial carbamoyl phosphate rose up to about 3 mM; under these conditions ammonia accumulated in the medium. The relationship between ornithine-cycle flux and the concentration of the cycle intermediates at varying amino acid concentration indicated that under near-physiological conditions the ornithine-cycle enzymes are far from being saturated with their subsidiaries. Moderate concentrations of norvaline had no effect on the rate of urea synthesis unless the cells were severely depleted of ornithine. Activation of carbamoyl-phosphate synthetase (ammonia) by addition of N-carbamoylglutamate only slightly stimulated urea production at all amino acid concentrations. However, in the presence of the activator the curve relating ornithine-cycle flux to the steady-state ammonia concentration was shifted to lower concentrations of ammonia. The intramitochondrial concentration of carbamoyl phosphate in rat liver in vivo was below 0.1 mM. This value is far below the concentration required for substantial inhibition of carbamoyl-phosphate synthetase. It is concluded that in vivo the function of activity changes in carbamoyl-phosphate synthetase, via the well-documented alterations in the intramitochondrial concentration of N-acetylglutamate, is to buffer the intrahepatic ammonia concentration rather than to affect urea production per se. At constant concentration of ammonia the rate of urea production is entirely controlled by the activity of carbamoyl-phosphate synthetase.