Spanish scleroderma risk score (RESCLESCORE) to predict 15-year all-cause mortality in scleroderma patients at the time of diagnosis based on the RESCLE cohort: Derivation and internal validation

A few scores predicting the short-term risk of mortality in Systemic sclerosis (SSc) have been reported to date. Our study aimed to create a predictive 15-year all-cause mortality score at the time of the diagnosis of SSc. The study was based on the Spanish Scleroderma Registry (RESCLE). The cohort was split up in derivation (DC) and validation cohort (VC). A multivariate analysis to detect variables related to all-cause mortality within the first 15 years from SSc diagnosis was performed, assigning points to the rounded beta values to create the score (RESCLESCORE). 1935 SSc patients were included. The variables in the final model were as follows: age at diagnosis (+2 points > 65 years-old), male gender (+1 point), lcSSc subset (-1 point), mode of onset other than Raynaud's (+1 point), cancer (+1 point) and visceral involvement, such as ILD (+1 point), PAH (+1 point), heart (+1 point) and renal involvement (+2 points). Autoantibodies did not achieve statistical significance in the multivariate analysis. The 3 categories of risk to predict 15-year all-cause mortality at the time of diagnosis were as follows: low risk (5% vs. 7%, p = .189), intermediate risk (26.5% vs. 25.5%, p = .911) and high risk (47.8% vs. 59%, p = .316). The AUC was 0.799 (DC) vs. 0.778 (VC) (p = .530). In conclusion, the RESCLESCORE demonstrated an excellent ability to categorize SSc patients at the time of diagnosis in separate 15-year all-cause mortality risk strata at the time of diagnosis.

Serodiscordant patients with systemic sclerosis: when antibody does not correspond to skin involvement

OBJECTIVES

Diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc) is associated with anti-topoisomerase (ATA) whereas limited cutaneous (lcSSc) and sine scleroderma (ssSSc) are mainly associated with anti-centromere antibody (ACA). Serodiscordant patients were defined as lcSSc subjects with ATA, dcSSc with ACA, and ssSSc with ATA. The aim of the present study was to compare the clinical manifestations and prognosis between serodiscordant patients and their counterparts (those with lcSSc with ACA, dcSSc with ATA and ssSSc with ACA, respectively).

METHODS

From the Spanish Scleroderma Registry we selected those patients for whom skin involvement (dcSSc, lcSSc or ssSSc) was detailed at baseline and last visit and ACA and ATA had been determined. Demographic, clinical characteristics, and survival data were compared according to the antibody status.

RESULTS

The whole cohort comprised 901 patients and six mutually exclusive groups were defined: lcSScACA in 511 (57%) patients, lcSScATA group in 87 (10%), dcSScATA group in 172 (19%), dcSScACA group in 21 (2%), ssSScACA group in 92 (10%), and ssSScATA group in 18 (2%) patients, respectively. Interstitial lung disease (ILD) and severe ILD were more frequent in patients with dcSScATA than in those with dcSScACA. Conversely, the prevalence of isolated pulmonary hypertension (without ILD) was higher in those with dcSScACA (15% vs. 2%; p=0.018). No differences were found regarding survival when comparing serodiscordant patients with the seroconcordants patients.

CONCLUSIONS

In our cohort, the prevalence of serodiscordant SSc patients was low. They differed from their counterparts in some clinical manifestations. The management of patients with SSc should be guided by both serology and cutaneous subtype.