The Occurrence Birth-Death Process for combined-evidence analysis in macroevolution and epidemiology

Phylodynamic models generally aim at jointly inferring phylogenetic relationships, model parameters, and more recently, the number of lineages through time, based on molecular sequence data. In the fields of epidemiology and macroevolution, these models can be used to estimate, respectively, the past number of infected individuals (prevalence) or the past number of species (paleodiversity) through time. Recent years have seen the development of “total-evidence” analyses, which combine molecular and morphological data from extant and past sampled individuals in a unified Bayesian inference framework. Even sampled individuals characterized only by their sampling time, that is, lacking morphological and molecular data, which we call occurrences, provide invaluable information to estimate the past number of lineages. Here, we present new methodological developments around the fossilized birth–death process enabling us to (i) incorporate occurrence data in the likelihood function; (ii) consider piecewise-constant birth, death, and sampling rates; and (iii) estimate the past number of lineages, with or without knowledge of the underlying tree. We implement our method in the RevBayes software environment, enabling its use along with a large set of models of molecular and morphological evolution, and validate the inference workflow using simulations under a wide range of conditions. We finally illustrate our new implementation using two empirical data sets stemming from the fields of epidemiology and macroevolution. In epidemiology, we infer the prevalence of the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship, by taking into account jointly the case count record (occurrences) along with viral sequences for a fraction of infected individuals. In macroevolution, we infer the diversity trajectory of cetaceans using molecular and morphological data from extant taxa, morphological data from fossils, as well as numerous fossil occurrences. The joint modeling of occurrences and trees holds the promise to further bridge the gap between traditional epidemiology and pathogen genomics, as well as paleontology and molecular phylogenetics. [Birth–death model; epidemiology; fossils; macroevolution; occurrences; phylogenetics; skyline.]

Speciation completion rates have limited impact on macroevolutionary diversification

Standard birth-death (BD) processes used in macroevolutionary studies assume instantaneous speciation, an unrealistic premise that limits the interpretation of speciation and extinction rates. The protracted birth-death (PBD) model instead assumes that speciation involves two steps: initiation and completion. In order to understand their respective influence on macroevolutionary speciation rates, we compute a standard time-varying BD scenario that is 'equivalent' to the PBD model in terms of speciation and extinction probabilities. First, we find a sharp decline in the equivalent birth rate near the present, indicating that rates estimated at the tips of phylogenies may not accurately reflect the underlying speciation process. Second, the completion rate controls the timing of the decay rather than the asymptotic equivalent rates. The equivalent birth rate in the past scales with the speciation initiation rate, with a scaling factor depending mostly on the population extinction rate. Our results suggest that the rates of population formation and extinction may often play a larger role than the speed of accumulation of reproductive isolation in modulating speciation rates. Our study establishes a theoretical framework for understanding how microevolutionary processes combine to explain the diversification of species on macroevolutionary time scales.This article is part of the theme issue '"A mathematical theory of evolution": phylogenetic models dating back 100 years'.